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A Foregone Conclusion

July 14 update:

Here’s tonight’s late addition to this previous post. I would guess we’re coming down tomorrow. Below is the NYSE. We’ve been waiting for it to make the 62% retrace all the darn day. It actually has about $3.00 still to go as at this writing, so we’ll like do a very small opening gap reversal Wednesday morning. NOTE: It’s also a new moon.

NYSEJul14-2
July 11 Original Post:

It’s all playing out as forecast. You can go back to my previous post from last weekend to see that there isn’t much difference between then and now. What we simply did is complete the second wave down (it was debatable whether we had or not last week). But, as I stated then, we need to do a second wave (a 62% retrace), and lo and behold, we’re finally on our way.

Now, a word about Greece. Everyone’s so focussed on whether it’s going to default, or not. To the market, it really doesn’t matter. Once the mood of the herd changes, the market changes trend and since we’re been in a countertrend for almost seven years, we’re now reverting back to a motive trend (5 waves in a fractal configuration, with 3 wave retraces). What’s great about an Elliott wave trend is that it unfolds in measurable moves. There isn’t a ton of guesswork involved once it gets on its way.

Events don’t determine the market; it’s the other way around. The mood determines events, while the market keeps moving in a measured manner into more and more negative territory. After all, Greece is already bankrupt. So is Italy, France, Spain, and on and on. They’re going to go down like dominoes and then we’ll see the spread to the west.

Greece debt to GDP

Since we’re talking about Elliott wave, here’s a great example of how the same trend configuration applies to the real world (above). Five waves up, which means it has to reverse. Cycles and waves exist in everything.

So, get strapped in … this is the big one … the bottom is years away, but expect a really big drop over the next year. At the bottom of this page, I’ve provided a path for the next month or so. As I’ve said previously, the bottom should be sometime around the first part of August. Then, we’ll start a larger second wave up for at least a month (retracing 62% from the very top) … and start down all over again in a larger version of the path you see below.

DOW July10

Above is the four hour chart of the DOW. I show us in the third wave down, but about to retrace 62% to complete the second wave of the third (waves are fractal) and then we should head down in the third of the third rather swiftly. I think everyone expects that one to bottom around the 15th of the month. Then we’ll have a 4th wave bounce (see the path at the bottom of this page). That up and down action will likely last more than a week.

Nasdaq July 10

Above is the Nasdaq one hour chart. The Nasdaq has only done one wave down, so this is where it will get back in sync with the other indices. Gaps usually get filled, so you can see that the 62% retrace level is right above the gap. Funny how that works …

NYSE July 10

Above is the one hour NYSE. It’s got a slightly different configuration. The drop so far  measured out that we’ve just done a first wave down to about $10,600, although my labelling doesn’t reflect that. However, I’ve measured the 62% retrace from the top and you’ll see it’s right at the top of the gap, which will likely get filled before we head down. There are some other reasons for my suggestion that this is only a first wave, but they’re more technical. The bottom line is that it makes no difference as to where we’re going.

SP500

Above it the SP500.  Same basic configuration.

Path jul10.graffle

Here’s the Elliott wave path for the next month or so. I’ve labelled where we are, so that you can see how it should play out. The fourth wave is where you’ll see the long consolidation. The higher degree fourth (4) always reverts back to the lower degree fourth (iv), a 38% retrace.

The lengths of my lines don’t reflect the actual lengths of the market waves – they’re approximate only.

The fifth wave will likely be as long as all the previous waves combined to that point and will seem like a capitulation. It will get noticed!

I’ve labelled what might be the price levels for bounces. This is a guesstimate only. We have to at least get below $16K for the bottom of the fifth wave, as that’s the beginning of the higher degree ending diagonal which topped the market. I show those levels on my previous post.

Hope this helps give you a much clearer idea of how everything should unfold through the first part of August.

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{ 36 comments… add one }
  • Dave Lane July 11, 2015, 1:47 pm

    Good afternoon Sir. I would appreciate a little clarification on your SP graph . Is the price levels mistakenly reversed back wards ? V 3 should be 1700 rather than the 1600 level.

    Thanks

    • peter July 11, 2015, 1:59 pm

      Hi Andre,
      You’re right! I’ll fix it. Thanks very much for catching that and letting me know.

    • peter July 11, 2015, 3:31 pm

      Sorry, Dave,
      I thought that was a comment from Andre. Apologies for getting your name wrong. I’ve also added a chart of Greek GDP to debt, which has an interesting configuration.

      • Dave Lane July 11, 2015, 4:45 pm

        Thank you for the clarification. I am personally out of long position friday. I just hope we do not have a gap down Monday night into monday morning. I have not purchased all my short instruments for the Jul Aug period yet.

        • Dave July 11, 2015, 5:29 pm

          I meant to say, I hope we do not have a gap down from Sunday night into Monday morning.

          • peter July 11, 2015, 5:30 pm

            I would bet we have an opening gap reversal on Monday and then head down. Don’t know for sure, but that’s where it looks like we’re going.

  • John vd Meer July 11, 2015, 1:56 pm

    Thanks for the update Peter,

    I have to see 16K at the end of wave 5 ?
    I think this will be a break week a big disappointment with still no deal in Europe
    will lead to a big decline…after that a bounce and than we will see the big one after july 23..

    Let ‘s wait and see..

  • Joel Lovingfoss July 11, 2015, 2:07 pm

    Much appreciated Peter! Very well explained. Thank you.

    • peter July 11, 2015, 3:12 pm

      Thanks, Joel. We should see a big drop sometime this coming week.

  • Dave July 11, 2015, 5:48 pm

    I would bet we have an opening gap reversal on Monday and then head down. Don’t know for sure, but that’s where it looks like we’re going.

    That would make me very happy. LOL Make it happen..

  • andre July 11, 2015, 10:35 pm

    The support I saw last week that caused the july 8th spike ends Tuesday 14th. The 14-16 July period is a very intense period and I expect the market to roll over. The 16th is a very strong day, but Tuesday it all starts. So I expect Tuesday high, Wednesday low and a pull back to this major turn date 16. Thursday the move down will accelerate.

    After that all support is gone until at least August 10th. Then some support reappears but it will be weak until later in August. So I expect August to be more consolidating with a downward bias. Then some retracement into the 3rd week of September. After the September 21-23 period the down move will be more powerful.

    Some stronger counter force not before early 2016 when we might see a retrace into the equinox. Plenty of time before we get there and make some adjustments along the way.

    Just my thoughts.

    Cheers,

    André

    • peter July 12, 2015, 4:01 am

      Sounds good, Andre and supports the wave structure. The key is not to go above the 62% retracement. So far, if you drill down to the ten minute chart, all the indices have done 3 up with overlapping waves. This means we retrace down. So far …

      • andre July 12, 2015, 4:48 am

        As I said before; nice to have the same vision 😉

    • peter July 12, 2015, 9:49 am

      Haha … and I see the timing falling into place politically now .. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-12/eurogroup-fails-reach-deal-gives-greece-24-hours-accept-draconian-terms
      Thanks all for your input!
      The thing Elliott waves have trouble with is timing … and you’ve all been very helpful in attempting to tie it down. It will be interesting to see how closely it all works …

  • andre July 11, 2015, 10:43 pm

    One more thing. Monday will be a strong up day (high energy) so I expect some resolution for Greece, but not the final one. The can will be kicked down the road some more. So the euphoria that will dominate Monday will fade and worries about a sustainable solution will reappear.

    I think.

    Longer term news follows the market, as Peter explained.

    • John vd Meer July 13, 2015, 9:45 am

      Congratulations Andre and Peter,

      This was a good call monday high I was much more pessimistic about Greece
      Let’s see if tommorow is the final high…and it all falls apart like

      http://www.see-link.org/the-panic-of-1873-black-friday-on-the-vienna-stock-exchange/

      • peter July 13, 2015, 10:37 am

        Haha … John,
        Let’s not go hugging everybody just yet. We still have to prove this is the top of the second. So far, so good. Three overlapping waves up—it really doesn’t have anywhere to go but down … but it hasn’t made that decision yet …

      • andre July 13, 2015, 11:18 am

        Cosmic energy was positive and politicians are as human as you and me; they felt it too. Actually; energy dipped during the weekend; causing the down gap opening in Europe and on Sunday there wasn’t a deal yet. Sunday energy rose again into Sunday night and Monday morning the deal was done.

        Good thing the negotiations were scheduled for last week and not the next. This energy evidently peaks Tuesday, July 14th. So I would be surprised if we don’t see a high tomorrow. Still, time will tell.

        • John vd Meer July 13, 2015, 12:19 pm

          I was surprised the bradley made an inversion but next turndate is July 16 or 17
          and the next high is July 23 so we will see if it’s a high or low like you are suggesting.

          Cheers..

        • peter July 14, 2015, 9:04 pm

          André,
          I put a little update chart at the top of the post. I’m intrigued by the data you employ and your accuracy. It’s really superb.

          • andre July 14, 2015, 10:06 pm

            Thanks 😉

          • peter July 15, 2015, 4:33 pm

            Well, tonight we’re at an inflection point. All the indices, other than the NYSE are above 62%, so there’s a chance we may go to a new high. It’s 3 waves up right now so we would have to do a fourth wave down in order to do that. So we’re going down tomorrow either way. But if we turn around at the previous fourth, then we’ll head up to a new high. I’ll post some charts late tonight.

          • andre July 16, 2015, 5:56 am

            Peter,

            I.m.h.o no inflection point; this is a counter trend move; a divergence. This weekend severe weakening of forces; especially after Tuesday.

            Fibo retraces aren’t lines but zones. A little overthrow doesn’t change the structure. Keep the faith!

            André

          • peter July 16, 2015, 6:51 am

            André,
            I think you’re right. I’m back to my original count.
            I was out last night and didn’t get back until very late and then went through charts several times to figure out that was going on. What threw me was that Elliottwave International flipped all their counts yesterday. BUT …
            last night the Nasdaq futures went to a new high—to be expected. That makes it a double top (we’ll see how we open this morning. The NYSE is still at 62% and I count on that to lead the way when the world turns nuts … as it did last night.
            I still think we’re going to roll over from here. I’ll get some charts up this morning, although the only thing that’s really changed is the Nasdaq.

          • peter July 16, 2015, 9:02 am

            New post up.

  • andre July 12, 2015, 1:39 am

    Details. First leg down into strong 22/23 turn window. Then up into 29/31. After that down into august 8-10. Up into 15/16 weekend and down again into august 20-something.

    Experimental.

  • Nicola Timpa July 12, 2015, 6:44 am

    Thank all you guys and to the host ,Peter big thanks Nick

  • John vd Meer July 12, 2015, 9:01 am

    Thanks for the insights Peter and Andre,

    I have one more thing to ad if monday is a (big ) down day I follow the bradley than a low will be in the markets thursday or friday and we will have one more move up till July 23..
    I say this because Mercurius was on it’s midpoint(0) on saturday and that could have changend the trend.

    Good luck to all..

  • John vd Meer July 14, 2015, 1:51 pm

    I m always amazed of the power that a market can roar back in no time.
    So let’s see what tommorow will bring a sudden change in trend would surprise me at the moment.
    The bradley makes its turn on the 16e and 17e …

    Cheers

    • peter July 14, 2015, 1:59 pm

      John,
      A change in trend would not surprise me in the least. Actually, the trend hasn’t changed; it’s down. This is a countertrend move so far, 3 waves up and the C wave just completed a full five waves. And, it looks like we’re completing the first motive wave down in the futures (NQ particularly) as I write this, but that’s up in the air at the moment.

        Volume is reducing each day.
        Clearly 3 waves up in all the indices
        As per Andre, we expected the turn at the end of today.

      Looks like the perfect conditions for the forecast turn down … and down hard.

      • peter July 14, 2015, 2:05 pm

        One more thing …
        This could be a final fourth wave I’m seeing. We might have one very small wave up in the morning. I say this because the NYSE is just a few dollars short of reaching the 62% mark and filling its gap, which I’m expecting still to happen. All the other indices have reached their targets.

  • John vd Meer July 14, 2015, 2:19 pm

    Thanks Peter,

    We will see what will be the trigger maybe big probleems in Athenes with accepting the “deal”
    What I have discovered that the market tops between 23-29 at the end of the month again and again ,so far we have had 3 big down moves and ups on the DAX and we are now in the fourth bounce so maybe this one will be a bigger one ending again between 7-10 next month..

    • peter July 14, 2015, 9:02 pm

      John, I gave you a little update at the top of the post.

  • John vd Meer July 15, 2015, 2:53 am

    Thanks again Peter,

    I follow a dutch guy here in Holland he is verry accurate in pinpointing days..

    He came up with the following turning days … 15/7 (top) 24/7 (top/bottom?) 5/8 (bottom) and most important 15/8 (last top).
    The last day he sees as a final top Higher or lower he can not say..

    What ‘s also verry interesting is the correlation between the bradley 2008 and 2015
    Specially the period from now on till year end

    If you zoom in there are a lot of similarities

    http://www.robertew.com/invest/bradley/br2008.jpg

    http://www.robertew.com/invest/bradley/br2015.jpg

    Cheers.

  • John vd Meer July 16, 2015, 8:46 am

    Hello Peter and Andre,

    Like I posted before I m amazed the power of the bull he does’t give up quickly.
    I think from here there is a good chance that the top will be in on July 23..
    Bradley turn and Mercury conjunct sun after that down august 6/7 up again and last top probably lower arround august 15..

    Good luck..

    • peter July 16, 2015, 9:02 am

      New post up.

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