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Down We Go ….

So far so good.

Tonight, I’m going to give a brief summary of where we are in a couple of the main US indices.

NYSE Jun26wide

The NYSE above shows the ending diagonal to a fifth wave high, first wave down, second wave up, and the start of the third wave down. Third waves are motive waves that subdivide in five waves (as do all Elliott motive waves). I expect this one will be no exception. The first wave of the third will usually be the same length as the first wave down of higher degree and so this puts the initial target at $10,800.00 for the NYSE.

NYSE Jun 26

Zooming in, we can see the substructure of wave 2 (an abc countertrend wave). There is a possibility, since we’ve come down in three waves so far, that we could head back up to the previous top of the second wave at $11,170. I wouldn’t expect us to go any higher, as the abc wave up has subwaves in 3’s and a new high would require a wave up in 5 waves. So, I’m expecting us to continue down, despite all the hope attached to the EU/Greece never-ending drama.

SP Jun 26 wide

Finally, here’s the SP with much the same look. The target for the first wave of the third is about $2068.

I’m off on my motorcycle for a couple of days into the Canadian Rockies, and won’t be around most of the weekend. However, I’ll be keeping abreast of the Greek mini-series. Wouldn’t want to miss it, although I’m not expecting all that exciting of an ending.

Saturday Update: The Situation in Greece

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-27/eurozone-rejects-greek-bailout-extension

As I suspected, it’s all but official. The Greek experiment with negotiating an impossible situation is all but over. This suggests we head down Sunday into Monday in US market futures and currencies.

 

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{ 6 comments… add one }
  • Nicola timpa June 27, 2015, 6:16 am

    Thank you. I have been busy, i am watching also…nick

  • John vd Meer June 29, 2015, 8:19 am

    Wel no deal and indeed down we go..
    Bulls eye Peter
    Still thinking about a first low arround the 15th of June?

    • peter June 29, 2015, 9:33 am

      John,
      I think you mean July 15 …
      I’m watching for a bounce much earlier. I’m short the e-minis (SP and Nasdaq) so I’m watching the US indices quite closely. On the SP, I’m watching for a bounce at $2068.00 (We could hit that mark at day’s end). If that happens, it would mark the first wave of the third and I’d expect a 62% bounce. If we break 2068 decisively, then it’s straight down. July 15 was somebody else’s turn target, but let’s see what happens at 2068 and then I’ll run some cycles on the major indices. There will be a fourth wave bounce sometime in July if we keep heading down.

  • John vd Meer June 29, 2015, 11:08 am

    Yeah I meant July 15
    I also believe in the trading technic from Tom de Mark..
    The market will never go down more than 13 trading days in a row so if this happens I see the bottom on July 10th.

    • peter June 29, 2015, 12:29 pm

      John,
      I’m not holding up much hope for a bounce now. We should continue down from here. Next support for SP500 is 2028. I will post some charts at the end of the day and do a cycles analysis tonight.

  • John vd Meer June 29, 2015, 1:41 pm

    Thanks I m looking forward..

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