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Keeping the Powder Dry

Just one chart tonight as nothing has really changed. It’s ready, aim …. time. The firing comes when you see they whites of their eyes.

If you want to know where we’re at across the US indices, the two previous posts should do it. The earlier one provides more of an overview.

Bottom line: We’re at the top of the third wave, trying to scramble away from the inevitable. However, the market is really weak, and from an Elliott Wave perspective, the move up is clearly a countertrend wave, with the c wave left to go. So the question is, how far will it get until it falters and falls over? (a typical length for a c wave is the same length as the a wave, and this would bring ย it to about 2114)

SP500 Aug16

Here’s the SP500 one hour chart. The US indices are all looking pretty much the same, so I thought I’d concentrate on the SP500, since it’s the one most people watch.

The two probable targets are at 2104 and 2114. The higher target makes the most sense to me, but again, the market is struggling, so we’ll have to see how far it gets. I have also put a horizontal line at the 62% mark (.618). My downside targets haven’t changed from the two previous posts. I’ll update again once we’ve seen the turn and can confirm the third wave down has begun.

Gold is heading higherโ€”a sign that the US markets may be ready to turn down.

The eur/usd is in a countertrend move (a fourth wave). The dollar is in a similar position, with a turn possible at any time in the near future.

The DOW

Here’s one more pertinent chart to keep in mind.

DOW wide Aug 16

In the above weekly chart of the DOW, you can see that it’s broken down below the lower channel of the final 5 waves up. This is a highly bearish move and while it doesn’t absolutely confirm the downtrend, it’s a very strong bearish indicator in that direction.

Similar articles by category: Market Forecast Overview
{ 15 comments… add one }
  • Nicola Timpa August 17, 2015, 4:45 am

    Thanks Peter …n

  • John August 17, 2015, 12:07 pm

    Thanks Peter,

    Went long AEX today we must see a bounce to get in line with the US.
    I will follow Valley very closely nice call so far on the SP.. Thanks.. I hope we saw the Mercury low (latitude minimum).

    Cheers

  • Whazzup August 17, 2015, 3:07 pm

    Sold my AEX puts september 485 at the downspike today, whiha! ๐Ÿ™‚ Average 11,48 bought, sold at 20,10 on average. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Now I still wouldn’t be surprised if we would see 460,50 tomorrow… Else up now is okรฉ too since I will be going on holiday this Friday (1 week Barcelona!!! :)) so not going for any big positions anymore.

    Let’s see if the S&P will finish the up move very soon and start the W3 down move. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Cheers,

    W

    • peter August 17, 2015, 9:03 pm

      Good for you! We have a little ways up to go before we turn down.

    • peter August 18, 2015, 11:22 am

      We’ll see how the next couple of hours go, but I think we have our roll-over. Dollar seems to rolling over, too, along with all the currencies, of course.

  • Whazzup August 18, 2015, 11:37 am

    ROLL ROLL ROLL ROLL! ๐Ÿ˜›

    Let’s see! ๐Ÿ™‚

    • peter August 18, 2015, 11:55 am

      The SP needs to do five waves down and break the 2078 level. I would expect a bounce before it drops through.

      • peter August 18, 2015, 2:05 pm

        A fake-out. We didn’t get below the 38% retrace level, which is key. We’ll likely test the top of the wave tonight. Fed meeting apparently tomorrow …

  • Whazzup August 19, 2015, 4:14 am

    Bought some puts september 460 AEX again. Let’s see what happens. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Cheers,

    W

  • John vd Meer August 19, 2015, 9:53 am

    I bought the Sept put 440 yesterday on our exception 1% up day
    At the moment we are on a crossroad we have the bradley down till August 27. still inline
    But we also have a Mercury Latitude minimum today..
    So we could see a nasty decline till August 27 or we will see a turnup tommorow ?

    Cheers

  • Whazzup August 19, 2015, 12:06 pm

    Hey John!

    Let it be a nasty one. ๐Ÿ˜‰ ^^ ๐Ÿ˜› ๐Ÿ˜€
    Else, we got the time till september xx! ๐Ÿ™‚

    Cheers,

    W

    • peter August 19, 2015, 12:24 pm

      We saw a wave down overnight and slightly more than a 62% retrace in the SP500. Very bearish.

      • peter August 19, 2015, 1:01 pm

        Will post tonight. Here’s our long-awaited third wave. SP hit the target of 2104 .. so everything is right on target.

  • Whazzup August 19, 2015, 3:20 pm

    Looking forward to your post Peter! Bedtime now 23:30 here. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Cheers,

    W

    • peter August 19, 2015, 5:19 pm

      New post up.

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