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Summer Sideways

Andy Pancholi’s Market Report Video

Here’s a link to Andy’s new market report video. In it, he takes you through the June report and shows you how to use it. http://cyclesanalysis.evsuite.com/mtr-20-june-2016/

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Update Wednesday, June 22, 6:30PM EST

Sp500June 22

Above we have the 30 minute chart for the SP500. We still appear to be working through this ending diagonal. I’m expecting the next few days to be volatile.

Tonight, we should head down (futures) to complete a b wave (~2072 SPX), and then rise to about 2120 or so to complete the c wave. After that, we’ll have a fourth and fifth left. If this is the ending diagonal I think it is, the path should be very much like the one I traced out in the original blog post below.

Gold is heading south and should complete an abc corrective wave. Oil is heading up still and I’m expecting it to hit ~62.00 before it’s done. Currencies are volatile but seem to be heading gradually towards their intended targets.

I’m back home Thursday night, so I’ll be able to get a better look at the full picture before the vote results become known. Events don’t determine markets, so I’m not expecting anything other than volatility on the vote results. We know where the euro’s supposed to be going, and I’m expecting it to get there.

We’re very close to topping out.

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Update Tuesday, June21, 7:15 PM

There’s nothing like take-out food in Manhattan!

SP500June21rev

Above is the 2 hour chart of the SP500 as at tonight. So far, so good.

It’s really difficult for me to do my usual analysis, working with a tiny screen on a MacBook Air compared with the PC-based 6 screens I usually have to work with.

The wave up we have as of tonight doesn’t look like its corrected down enough. In fact, this may be all of wave A up with the second part of B still to come. We’re so close to a top now, that you’ll want to make sure you adhere to your stops. When this market turns over, it’s not likely to fool around much at the top. I project a dramatic drop.

If you’re trading options, it’s a really good time to think about being short.

I’m back in my hometown on Thursday evening, but have an event that evening, so the first full analysis will be for Friday morning.

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Update: Monday, June 20 6:10AM EST

Overnight, everything I cover seems to be moving as expected, except USDCAD, which at the moment, is moving against EURUSD.

USDCADJun 20

Above is the 15 minute chart of USDCAD, which continues to confound me. I expected a larger retrace before now, but it appears the first wave it extending and the likelihood is that we won’t get a retrace now until ~1.26, when I expect the US indices will reach the upper trendline of the ending diagonal. So the direction continues to be down for USDCAD.

ES has moved up in what appears to be a C wave and I have an upside target now of 2128, which would make the C wave 1.618 X the A wave. We appear to be rapidly trying to move to a conclusion in this market. However, we still have a few more up and down waves in the US market’s ending diagonal and the end is at least a week away, and likely a bit further.

In the short term the direction is up for ES and SP

I’m heading for a plane, so I won’t be around for the open.

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Original Post: Saturday, June 18:

Last week, my post was all about being at the top of wave two. I was counting on a quicker resolution due to the fact that the ending diagonal I’ve been expecting looked like a smaller one (an expanding ending diagonal) than it’s turned out to be. It would have finished the pattern with a final wave up.

However, it was not to be. The lower trendline got damaged and we’ve had to revert back to the original converging ending diagonal I’d been expecting for two weeks now. So really … nothing much has changed. You’re going to find this week that the charts of all the indices, currencies, gold, and oil are pretty much what they have been for a couple of weeks now.

We’re into summer doldrums. The volume is very light being the top of the market. Add to that the lower volume of the summer doldrums and you’ve got a slowly moving, choppy market. Tough to trade. Add to that an ending diagonal, which will show volume dropping even further as it winds its way to the end, and you’ve got a hellish market to try to trade. Be careful. Options are about the safest thing to be in, but then again, I don’t expect much more than sideways action over the next few weeks.

In terms of the pattern being an ending diagonal, I continue to maintain that it can’t be anything else. Ending waves have to be in fives (a motive wave) or they have to be a triangle (in 3 waves). The wave up from May 19 is clearly in 3 waves, so we’re stuck with a triangle and that triangle can only be an ending diagonal. It’s simply the process of elimination, which is what Elliott waving is really all about: If you can determine the pattern you’re in (most often by elimination), you can successfully trade it, because you know what it’s going to do.

Andy’s Cycles: In case you missed it, last week Andy Pancholi provided a short little video looking ahead into July, which you can watch here:  Andy Pancholi Special Report.

To purchase Andy’s high-end cycles report, click here. Andy is 99.9% accurate on major cycles turns and using his turn dates with my Elliottwave projections is really the holy grail in trading. You won’t often go wrong in timing the market.

All the Same Market: As I’ve mentioned here over and over again, the currencies and US market are becoming more and more tightly aligned. They’re all moving together as debt is being deleveraged. If you’re good at seeing patterns and mentally manipulating them, you can easily see them aligning and this helps you (me) forecast the market moves.

It certainly won’t always be this way forever, but they’ve been moving closer and closer into alignment for the past couple of years. Now the moves are almost identical, from a technical analysis perspective. All the US currencies are in the final wave. We’ll all reach the party together. And it will be quite a party! I was going to mount the 3rd wave path, but it’s pointless really until we find the end of this second wave up.

Bottom line: The final high for the SP500 should be at or slightly above 2116. (Andew’s Forkers are pointing to 2134 for a top. It looks to me to be quite probable we’ll reach it, but I would suggest that we’re not going to hit a new all time high, likely by ticks).  We have five relatively small waves to go, but with the way the market’s are moving (slowly), the top may well be a month away, or longer.

Wave Three Down
Here’s a link to a projection for wave three down in the SP500.

We have Brexit on June 23, but quite honestly, events don’t change the trend. Events happen as the trend changes. So I’m not expending a major change in trend on June 23, unless we somehow work our way through this pattern quickly (or I’m totally wrong on the pattern and something else happens).

New York:  I’ll be in New York all this coming week researching the work of Dr. Raymond Wheeler through his Big Book, which I talk about in many of my videos on the site. I won’t be around during the day, but will be able to comment on the market nightly, as usual.

I’ve recorded six new videos and they’ll be hitting the site over the next couple of weeks, hopefully. Then it’s on to finishing the book.

There will be some other announcements coming during the next few weeks, so it won’t all be dull and boring.

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Here’s a video overview of the market for Tuesday, June 20, 2016:

Market Report for June 20, 2016

setquality100px Make sure you zoom the video to full size with frame expander (arrows) in the bottom right hand corner and also set the quality to as high as your web connection allows. This is an HD quality video so the best viewing is at that level.

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The Charts Going into Monday

The US indices appear to be tracing out an ending diagonal. The cash and futures markets seem to be more or less in sync.

ES 09-16 (Daily) 8_19_2015 - 6_17_2016

Above is the daily chart of ES (SPX emini futures) showing the large wave up (from Feb 11) and the projection for the ending diagonal. Because the wave up is an abc corrective wave (clearly shown on this chart), and the final wave up is in 3 waves (wave i), it must end in a triangle (in this case, an ending diagonal). I can’t project an ending date, but you can bet we’ll see it end on one of Andy Pancholi’s cycle turns.

Ending diagonals end in a throw-over (they exceed the upper trendline), but they don’t project a final target.

Look at the volume indicator at the bottom of the chart. This indicator is an EMA (exponential moving average of volume). You can see how volume in this wave up is getting thinner and thinner. It will get thinner still as this ending diagonal unfolds.

ES 09-16 (60 Min) 6_17_2016

Above is the 60 minute chart of ES (SPX emini futures) showing most of the large wave up (from May 19) and the projection for the ending diagonal. Wave two on Friday dropped to exactly 62% of the distance from the top (an expectation from my original ending diagonal prediction of a couple of weeks ago) and we’ll label this bottom wave two. I would expect a move up on Monday. I’ve projected a possible top for this wave at ~2130, but there are options. However, wave 3 needs to get to a slight new high. After that, we’ll have a drop to wave 4 and a final wave 5 up to a top.

NQ (Nasdaq emini futures) has dropped to a double bottom (still needs to finish up this weekend) and I expect ES will drop to do the same at ~2041 (the 62% level I mentioned above) before turning up.

Ending diagonals end in a throw-over (they exceed the upper trendline), but they don’t project a final target.

 

NYSEJun17rev

Above is the daily chart of NYSE (the largest cap index in the world) and the one we really need to pay attention to for the US market. It’s showing a very obvious 2nd wave pattern, with the most recent wave up being clearly corrective. We reached the previous high at ~10648, as projected but the ending pattern is not quite complete. I’ve drawn in what I think is going to happen here—an ending diagonal.

The wave structure here is a little different than the SP500 because we didn’t go to a new low on Feb 11. It’s an overall ABC corrective wave up, with 5 waves traced out within it.

The next major move down is a very large 3rd wave. All we need to do now is finish up the final pattern (an ending diagonal expected here, too.

SP500wideJun13

Above is a 4 hour chart of SPX showing the bigger picture. This has a similar look to the NYSE, although more elevated in price. I’m expecting to see a top to this second wave somewhere above 2116 (looking more like 2134 may be closer to the final high). A zoomed in chart is just below.

SP500June17

Above is the 2 hour chart of the SP500, showing a projected ending diagonal similar to ES. This isn’t much more to say about this chart, since is should more or less follow the path and timing of ES. I’ve added a projected path for an converging ending diagonal, which is what I believe is starting to trace out. It’s early yet, but I’ll update the chart as the weeks progress.

I don’t expect the SPX to reach up to a new all time high. However, it may get very close.

USDCADwideJune16

Above is the 4 hour chart of USDCAD.

This has been the most frustrating pattern to try to predict. It’s traced out some sort of channel (not a complete triangle). The wave up from the bottom yesterday was motive, so this suggests we’re finally going to get a motive wave down to finish off this larger fourth wave. There is a chance this wave might drop further than 1.24579 as we’re not far from the previous fourth wave and this could be the continuation of the larger ending diagonal.

The next chart below zooms in tighter on what’s happening.

USDCADtightJun13

Above is a close up look at what I’m expecting in USDCAD with a 15 minute chart. Yesterday morning, we turned down (a major Andy Pancholi cycle date) and traced out 5 motive waves down for wave 1. We’re retracing out a second wave this weekend to ~1.2989, where I expect a turn down in a very long wave sequence (5 waves) to finish off the larger fourth wave with a double bottom at ~1.24579.

After that, we’ll turn up in a very large fifth wave, which will eventually take up to a new high for USDCAD.

EURUSDJune17

Here’s the daily hour chart of EURUSD showing the “4th wave” of the major corrective pattern we’ve been in since March, 2014. We’re in the final stages of a bearish triangle formation, with one more leg up to go to finish the E wave.

The EURUSD, as well as other USD currency pairs, completely changed direction with the most recent labor report On Friday, June 3. As I explain in the video, we had a failed triangle the day before and this led to a “truncation,” or  shortened pattern from what I was expecting. As a result, I shortened the width of the triangle. I expect we  continue up here slowly to complete this final wave.

EURUSD should turn down after finishing the E wave in tandem with the US equities.

USDJPYJune17

Above is the hourly chart of the USDJPY, which I’ve been stalking for the past while. I forecast the drop we’re in now to 103.22130, but it looks like we’re going to extend down to at least 100.5823 and perhaps lower. We’re reaching down for the previous fourth wave. We may start to move a little slower now as the ending diagonal in the US indices unfolds. The direction remains down.

XGLDJune17

Above is the daily chart of XGLD (gold). We had a bit of a surprise the last week or so as we’ve completed an expanded ending diagonal now. I see so many of these three wave spikes at the end of waves. Well, here’s another one. They’re frustrating and usual.

We should turn down here to complete the ABC correction I’ve been waiting for, taking us close to 1149, before turning back up for a larger C wave to about 1600.

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First Wave Down – What to Watch For

This weekend we’re dangerously close to a top of a second wave (in the fifth of the fifth, with an ending diagonal pattern).

What we’re looking for to confirm a turn is a motive wave down in 5 waves at small degree. After that, we should get a second wave that will retrace up in 3 waves about 62%. That’s the preferred EW entry point. So don’t feel you have to rush in. There’ll be a much better opportunity at the second wave level than at the top and the risk is substantially reduced.

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History: The 1929 crash

1929crash

I think it’s important to look at 1929 and the wave structure (above and below), which was the same as 2007—to a point. I will show the 2007 crash below in the “What If” section.

The wave structure of the 1929 crash was in 3 waves overall. There were 5 waves down from the top (the A wave) and then a very large B wave retrace. The final C wave down was a stair-step affair and lasted over 2 years.

stock_market_crash_1930_1d

Let’s look  a little close at the timing of the 1929 crash because the similarities to today are uncanny.

The market peaked on September 3, 1929 and then it took 2 months for the crash to actually happen (to reach the bottom of wave 5 of the A wave). The larger crash  which we always hear about began on October 23, 1929. Then there was that large B wave, which lasted 5 and a half months and finally (which I explain a little further in the cycles section below), the C wave which went on for more than 2 years. This might be the scenario we’re looking at going forward.

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{ 120 comments… add one }
  • Jemba June 18, 2016, 4:09 am

    Hi Peter. Great website. Thanks for posting. Quick comment on your latest video for this week. You have the EUR/USD heading up from its current location from D wave but looks like Andy Pancholi projects it will likely further dip and then likely turn up around June 23rd. Would you say you are both seeing things differently?

    • Peter Temple June 18, 2016, 9:14 am

      jemba,
      I have no bias re: June 23. I go just where the waves tell me. Andy is a cycles guy who is highly accurate on turns, but he usually won’t try to tell direction, so I’m surprised you tell me he’s doing that. That’s about all I can tell you.

      • Jemba June 18, 2016, 11:19 am

        Looks like you know him well. I went back and listened to the link of Andy that you included in the post so I’ll clarify. He mentioned he that he saw a spike (from his histogram) on June 23rd which suggests they’ll be a reversal but a double histogram spike on July 4th which means that turn will be more significant reversal than the June 23rd one. As far him suggesting the EUR/USD doing down, that was more conjecture saying its because its a 10 year cycles and that’s what happened 10 years ago, it something that usually happens. In fairness, he said, “IF” the pair goes down, they’ll likely be a reversal. Which means it might go up as well before the 23rd and then reverse. But he definitely mentioned a reversal on or around the 23rd. Hope that clarifies it a bit. Thanks

        • Peter Temple June 18, 2016, 11:26 am

          Cycle turns are directionless—it’s all about nailing the turn. EW is about direction. Put them together and it’s as close to the Holy Grail in trading as you can get, imho.

          Yes, I know Andy pretty well. He’s an exceptionally talented guy.

  • andré June 18, 2016, 4:44 am

    Peter,

    Just an idea. Last week was a mess. But looking deeper this is what we see.

    The Vix is in a long term uptrend and -thus- US markets were down all week. The Vstoxx (Eurostoxx volatility) peaked Wednesday and was down the rest of the week. Vstoxx peaked when Eurostoxx was oversold 2 st.dev’s. But nyse was not oversold.

    So Europe wanted up and US wanted down. That’s why Gold is up one day and down the other. I now believe strong moves can only occur what European and US markets are in sync. Nikkei is just the S&P in yen. But Europe and US have very different timing- sometimes.

    The dollarindex (Friday-0,5%) was down with Vix up. And the Dollarindix appears to be in a long term downtrend. The Euroindex (Friday +0,25%) is weakly bullish but not (yet) in a convincing uptrend as Vstoxx is down. Longterm Vstoxx is up, so when sort term turns up all Vstoxx cycles will be up, with Vix. Then the Euro will be up.

    I just think it helps to analyze them both seperately.

    Anyway; Vstoxx is down short term creating a bullish sentiment in Europe. Vix is down short term. This creates ending diagonals as forces are counteracting. And this time Vstoxx will be the canary in the coalmine.

    Thoughts?

    Have a nice weekend.

    André

    • John June 18, 2016, 7:45 am

      My Thoughts,

      I agree and just like Valley I think we will have a Brexit rally next week.
      It coincides with the bradley there is a turn this weekend and it shows a top on Juli 5.
      Maybe this will be the a turn but first we will see a big party I guess.

      All the best.

    • Peter Temple June 18, 2016, 10:56 am

      André,
      I’d be careful concentrating too much on daily moves, imho. I consider them just “noise.”

      The longer term direction for the US dollar is up (and euro is down) for example. And gold up and down from day to day is just how the market moves. The longer term trend is what’s important.

      It’s one of the reasons I stay away from day trading. Been there, done that. You can make more money concentrating on the larger trend (or in this case, countertrend), which we’re at the end of. In that respect, markets are very much in sync, as I’ve been saying.

      Right now, volume is thin. We’re going to have very choppy markets, but not for that much longer … 🙂

      • andré June 18, 2016, 11:32 am

        Oké,

        Thanks.

  • LizH June 18, 2016, 12:30 pm

    “Since 1991 DJIA has been down 10 times for the whole week of June Triple Witching. Weeks after TWW have been down 22 of 25 of those years or 88% of the time. Following the 10 down TWW DJIA has been down 8 of those 10 years. . .When TWW is down S&P is down the following week 7 of 11 since 1991.” http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/146076695858/80-chance-of-down-week-next-week-following-down

  • Whazzup June 18, 2016, 3:24 pm

    Peet,

    I wish we could do some research together… Enjoy my friend!!!

    Cheers,

    W

  • valley June 18, 2016, 8:25 pm

    Thanks Peter Temple. Worldcyclesinstitute.com is a great site to learn Elliot Wave.

  • valley June 18, 2016, 9:22 pm

    PALS probabilities next week:
    Phase: very weak until Friday
    Distance: very strong all week
    Declination: positive all week
    Seasonals: negative all week
    Lunar alignment: negative all week
    Planet alignment: negative all week (post Merc far west, post Venus superior conjunction)

    Summary: PALS isn’t very promising this week for the SPY, mostly mixed, guessing on the bull side but will be quick to take profits.

    • John June 20, 2016, 7:07 am

      Hi Valley,

      Don’t you think if we see a Bremain we will continue the rally this week and the SP will make new highs (2200) like you mentioned before?
      AEX Tulip calls are skyrocketing right now.

      Thanks

      John,

      • valley June 20, 2016, 9:52 am

        Hi John,
        Congrats on your Tulip call. My AAPL calls have gone no where due to volatility crush. PALS suggests most of the up move should be next week so am going to stay with AAPL calls until Thursday and then buy ETF in SPY if it pulls back some.

        • John June 20, 2016, 10:17 am

          Thanks.

          Watch out I have my big top date July 5 I will be out of longs .

          Goodluck with the apple tree.

          • valley June 20, 2016, 12:19 pm

            Hope it produces.

  • Frank June 19, 2016, 1:19 pm

    Excellent work Peter.. I luv your flexibility in changing the count for our loonie!

    • Peter Temple June 19, 2016, 1:40 pm

      It’s been a very perplexing pattern, but eventually we need to get to a new bottom because the wave up from the previous bottom is clearly in 3 waves. The motive wave down from Thursday suggests we’re finally on our way! Thanks.

  • Peter Temple June 19, 2016, 1:27 pm

    I updated the charts of ES in the blog post.

  • Peter Temple June 19, 2016, 2:15 pm

    I also placed a link in the post for the third wave projection down.
    http://worldcyclesinstitute.com/forum/long-term-charts/sp500-wave-three-down/#p85

  • Rose June 19, 2016, 2:43 pm

    Thanks peter

  • Eddie P June 19, 2016, 4:53 pm

    How do you get access to the chart? I am new here!

    • Peter Temple June 19, 2016, 5:06 pm

      Eddie,
      I think for that forum, you need to be a forum member. There’s a signup button in the menu on the forum page. It’s free.

  • Rose June 19, 2016, 8:21 pm

    People started calling spx 2200 2500 again already

    • Peter Temple June 20, 2016, 4:59 am

      That’s what I like to hear. The more bullish, the better.

      • Whazzup June 20, 2016, 7:08 am

        +1! 🙂

  • Peter Temple June 20, 2016, 4:20 am

    I updated a chart of USDCAD. US indices (ES) has been moving up and heading for it’s target. 6:10AM EST

  • Peter Temple June 20, 2016, 11:47 am

    I’m at my 20 minute stopover. USDCAD looks like it’s bottomed, so this is where we’re likely to get the 62% retrace.

    SPX looks to be in a fourth wave. It’s most likely it will drop about 38% from the bottom and then continue to head up.

    • dimitri kamo June 20, 2016, 10:03 pm

      Peter,
      do you refer to the 4th of the C wave or the 4th of the 3rd of the C ?
      Because it is overlapping now with the 2nd of the C.

      • Peter Temple June 21, 2016, 3:47 am

        Dimitri,
        The A wave ends at about 2075 ES. Then you have a B wave starting around 2054. The second wave of C is slightly above that point. The C wave s separate from the A and so the 4th wave of C does not intersect the second wave. Make sense?

      • dimitri kamo June 21, 2016, 5:42 am

        Thanks Peter,
        so You count the wave up in ABC.
        The waves A and C look motive itself.
        How do you know that it is A-B-C and not 1-2-3 which will be followed by 4-5?

        • Peter Temple June 21, 2016, 6:22 am

          Ending diagonals are always waves in threes. A and C should be more or less in 5 waves, B in 3.
          If it ends up being a 5, then we’re not in an ending diagonal, but we don’t have many options left so I’m expecting 3 waves.

  • rotrot June 21, 2016, 4:58 am

    Andrew Pancholi free video http://tinyurl.com/jnnvhzw

    week ending July 8, 2016: S&P 500 “change trend”; September 9-16, 2016 another turn

  • valley June 21, 2016, 5:25 pm

    Equity markets have several times in recent past rallied into beginning of the summer Olympics (mid July). Perhaps we get a Brexit inspired 5% rally from here into Mid July.

    • Whazzup June 22, 2016, 12:57 am

      Wouldn’t surprise me, I am prepared for anything right now. 😉

      Cheers,

      W

      • Whazzup June 22, 2016, 8:10 am

        However, for now I do not see it go further than the top 2134,71 per May 20 2015 like Peet has been saying all along… If it goes further, than something else is happening. 😉

        Cheers,

        W

    • valley June 22, 2016, 2:40 pm

      Moved AAPL calls to expire 7/31. Hope this apple is crisp and sweet.

      • John June 22, 2016, 3:24 pm

        I will keep my fingers crossed for you.

        • valley June 22, 2016, 4:40 pm

          SPX futures gapped up after close. Apple calls are sounding the cash register.

  • Peter Temple June 21, 2016, 6:07 pm

    I added a chart tonight at the top of the post.

  • Job Abraham June 22, 2016, 3:47 pm

    Both crude and SPX ready to drop

    • valley June 22, 2016, 4:43 pm

      Both crude and SPX ready to rally. (Crude as sweetener to Brazil so it can pay for the Olympic City, SPX rally and stall so summer vacationers can be relaxed).

      • Peter Temple June 22, 2016, 4:53 pm

        I’m with you on this call.

        • Peter Temple June 22, 2016, 4:54 pm

          But we should open lower first.

          • valley June 22, 2016, 7:35 pm

            Watch the moon rise tonight over the big Apple =)

          • valley June 22, 2016, 7:36 pm

            10:02 Est

          • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 6:43 am

            I’m about brain-dead after my two days of research, so that didn’t stand much of a chance of happening. 🙂

  • Peter Temple June 22, 2016, 4:52 pm

    I posted an SPX chart at the top of the post with my thoughts on what I’m seeing (not being able to all my charts at the moment …)

  • Joe June 23, 2016, 1:03 am

    I found an interesting article about the brexit .
    they stated that there would not be any coverage of the votes
    until its over , they then stated that some financial firms will
    have the voting data as it comes in . i found that an odd twist .
    bottom line the market is going to go where it is going to go
    and trying to wait on the outcome of the vote is a bit foolish .
    august 1-3 should be a very important high ( lower high or higher high doesn’t matter and from there the market should fall )
    July 19-20th another date for a high ( i need to dig into that one further because
    it also happens to be the republican convention )
    the break above 17808 on a closing basis is a bullish signal but that is also the
    top of the 144 day 2 percent trading band .
    The dow did close above this level once yet the close today ( wed june 22 )
    was back below it .
    the support is 17346
    so a strong decline below 17808 Friday targets 17346 which is the mid point
    there are lower levels if that mid point is broken .
    A further break out to the upside would argue for the next significant
    top in the august 1 -3 time frame .
    that august 1 -3 date dovetails with many cycles and will be very important
    regardless of its a higher high , new all time high or lower high .
    Joe

    • John June 23, 2016, 4:36 am

      Thanks Joe,

      So a high August 1-3, and after that the cycles bottom around Sept 1 like you mentioned before.

  • Alan Hewitt June 23, 2016, 6:25 am

    In the short Brexit video that Andy Pancholi made recently, he predicted a EURUSD turn date of June 22/23 and since the EURUSD has been rallying for the last few days, I guess that means that this rate should be reversing shortly rather than continuing to rally like it is right now. Or am I missing something?

    • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 6:42 am

      Alan,
      I don’t know that it’s the final turn into a 5th wave down for the Euro. That’s yesterday and today (22/23),and the euro has just turned up into a C wave, so I think we’ve seen that turn. It isn’t a major turn in his monthly outlook and the vote results will be tomorrow. I’m looking at currencies and seeing a little bit more life to them on this side of the “great divide.” They should turn with the US indices.

      • Alan June 23, 2016, 7:07 am

        Thanks Peter but I have been following your site for quite a while now and am a bit confused. You say that with your EW advice and Andy’s turns that together they form a highly accurate trading system but how exactly does one trade using them? Since the start of this year, can you please point to the advice(s) you gave in your posts that in conjunction with Andy’s turns gave positive (or negative) outcomes? I only ask because I am interested in subscribing to Andy’s service but there is no point unless I feel very confident being able to use it to trade successfully.

        • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 7:31 am

          Alan,
          I’m travelling internationally today, so I can’t access my usual tools, but let me try to provide a short explanation. EW gives direction and patterns. With eurusd, EW projects we will finish this triangle we’re currently in. We’re in the final C wave of the E wave (all triangle waves are in 3’s).

          Looking at the length of the A wave, a 1.618 projection of that wave takes us to roughly 1.155. If the C wave ends up being 1.618 X the A wave, it takes us a bit higher to about 1.163 (I’m eyeballing this at the moment). Somewhere in that range, I would expect a turn.

          Andy gives (usually) two major turns a month, as well as a number of other minor turns. I would expect this will be a major turn, which I don’t think this is (I don’t have access to Andy’s info at the moment). So when we reach the target range numerically and we hit a major turn date, you can be pretty confident of that trade.

          More than that I can’t give you at the moment, but I can expand perhaps on the weekend. Andy also provided a link to a video on how to use his service, where he walks you through one of this monthly documents. I’m scheduled to share it this weekend, as he uses the June document.

          Hope this helps … a bit.

  • amb June 23, 2016, 10:26 am

    interesting observation – don’t know if it holds any validity. The ES all time high and current W2 resistance line intersect on about July 3. Currently, ES is still riding under the resistance line, while today SPX popped above the resistance line. Will the ES continue to ride the resistance line until it hits the ATH resistance?

    http://invst.ly/1x-rw

    http://invst.ly/1x-tb

  • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 3:14 pm

    ES is already above your target

    • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 3:23 pm

      Can’t see anything. Having Air Canada day from hell, which is their usual experience … May not be back in town tonight at all.

    • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 3:47 pm

      ES has hit 2119

  • James L June 23, 2016, 3:54 pm

    Looks like we will hit a new all time high tomorrow after the no go on the brexit is official. What is the new upward target 2,200?

    • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 4:06 pm

      “No” should be already priced.
      The market may sell the news.

      • James L June 23, 2016, 5:04 pm

        Already up another 10 points in AH. I bet we see new all time highs tomorrow in 2140-50 range

  • LizH June 23, 2016, 7:20 pm

    Daily SPX from 6/8/16 to 6/16/16 looks like 7/20/15 to 7/27/15 with the candles below 5 sma. The chart from 6/16/16 to 6/23/16 looks like 8/12/15 to 8/18/15 with candles trading near 5 sma. Bollinger bands are squeezing for both. Curious to see if same pattern will play out.

  • Charlie June 23, 2016, 8:12 pm

    Do these wild swings in after hours trading change EW calculations at all? We were up to 2119 and as low as 2049. Crazy ride!

    • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 10:16 pm

      I just walked in. Have not been able to see anything all day, so it will take me some time to figure out what is going on.

      • Charlie June 23, 2016, 10:35 pm

        Thank you! It is confusing me because I’ve been mostly long expecting additional waves up & no major turn date from Andrew. Wonder what this does to expected ending diagonal?

  • AZ June 23, 2016, 10:11 pm

    03:58
    SP500 emini futures for September (ESU6) has Daily Limit down level at 1,999. Currently trades at 2014,50… Trading will be suspended if 1,999 reached until exchange sets new Limit Down

    • AZ June 23, 2016, 10:22 pm

      04:01
      correction… 1,999 is the limit down on SP500 futures (ESU6), the level will act as a floor, trading will not be allowed lower, but may trade higher

    • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 10:34 pm

      I wonder if the Europe will open today ?

      • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 10:48 pm

        Ok, ES is suspended.

    • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 10:38 pm

      They may just close the markets until Monday in order to avoid the panic and to coordinate a CB action during the WE

  • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 10:25 pm

    Peter,
    could I propose to reconsider the ending diagonal in ES in the following manner:
    the highs of the 20th of April and the 8th of June determine the upper line,
    the lows of the 19th of May and the 16th of June give the lower line.
    In this case the market has made yesterday the overthrow over the upper line and has gone in the 3rd wave down after reversal ?

  • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 10:34 pm

    There’s a possibility futures have 5 waves down. It’s hard to tell but the wave down seems to measure out OK and it’s comes down to the previous fourth. If we have 5 waves down, what we want to see now is three waves up to 62% and a turn over.

    It seems unlikely due to timing as the US market isn’t open and if this is “it,” we have a rather dramatic gap, but that’s not the end of the world, either. I see NYSE did a double top today.

    We need to see what happens from here.

  • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 10:36 pm
    • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 10:42 pm

      Peter,
      the market can get 62% retrace after coordinated Central Banks intervention

    • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 10:44 pm

      Any way I should admit that the market has done exactly the levels that you’ve told us.

      • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 11:00 pm

        🙂 I think this might just be it. We need that second wave, though, and we’ll need to wait until tomorrow at least to get it. It this it the top, the waves will come down in a very methodical way and measure out perfectly, so not to worry that anyone’s going to miss anything.

        • AZ June 23, 2016, 11:07 pm

          Peter ,

          Congratulations to you …. however I missed my target 2134 by 7 points :-((

          AZ

          • Peter Temple June 23, 2016, 11:11 pm

            Tks. We’ll see what happens. I had about a 7 hour delay today that caused me to miss the entire thing.

          • Dimitri June 23, 2016, 11:26 pm

            It means that’s the destiny.?

          • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 8:38 am

            I don’t think we’re quite done yet, so you may indeed make your target.

  • Joe June 23, 2016, 10:57 pm

    it looks like the dow is on target for a june 24 low as per cycles
    i have to admit a one day drop into this date leaves me questioning
    the cycle from june 13 to june 24 as a high to low cycle yet that is what
    my model called for .
    down side targets are all over the place yet this is the basics
    C = A at 17219 cash dow ( the futures are pretty much there now )
    C = 2.2 times A at 16215 and change
    C = 3.2 times A at 15378 and change
    Next week will probably be upwards in a counter trend strong bounce
    if we don’t see one Friday.
    Weekly support is 17213 on the cash Dow ( closing )
    closing below 17213 for the week targets 16980 which is the key
    support as i see it .
    Aug 1-3 is still the key date for a major turn ( it should be a high )
    the cycle is aug 1-2 high sept 1 low then a bounce and then
    a very steep decline ( the major cycle low is jan 20th 2017 )
    another cycle low in march 2017 .
    My guess is this, the write in ballots will be counted and it will
    come out the vote was to stay in the EU ( Rigged vote ) the markets
    will rally strongly upwards yet the public will begin to revolt .
    this will become the fuel for the next leg downwards along with
    the usa elections adding to the mix as the public world wide
    begins to finally see the corruption in governments world wide .
    the bottom line will be where to put your money .

  • Joe June 23, 2016, 10:59 pm

    16890 key support ( corrected )

  • Ted June 24, 2016, 4:06 am

    Peter-

    To confirm the Previous 4th level we should look out for it is that 2025 area on the SPX correct?

    • Ted June 24, 2016, 4:49 am

      Which on the SP 500 futures was about 2010 which we go to last night. I would assume the futures need to double bottom so the cash market can have the correct length of wave 1 down?

  • Eddie June 24, 2016, 6:53 am

    Great to see you stick with your convictions! Especially you “no new high” when most were looking onward and upward!

  • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 8:17 am

    Looking at both the currencies and equities markets (indices), it looks to me as if we need one more high. We have a number of triangles formed that need a last leg up. We really haven’t done much in the way of technical damage.

    • Dimitri June 24, 2016, 8:45 am

      Peter,
      I would be really surprised to see a new high now. I don’t see any driver to do it. The only driver in the market today may be the CB interventions, what I think they are doing today because the volumes are triple compared to the usual. But CB will intervene only to prevent the downside risk and not to drive the market to the new high.

      • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 8:49 am

        Well, then, you’d be counting on a truncation, which is possible, but as I’ve said before, unlikely, based on experience. I’m just telling you what the EW waves and patterns are telling me. They don’t care about “drivers.”

        • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 8:50 am

          As I’ve said before, “Trade what you see, not what you think.” That’s what I’m seeing.

        • Dimitri June 24, 2016, 9:14 am

          Why do you talk about “truncation”?
          ES has hit your target at 2120

          • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 9:15 am

            ES is not the only index in the world.

          • Dimitri June 24, 2016, 9:30 am

            NYSE has done a perfect double top.
            The picture in currencies is more complicated. But there is no direct correlation between the currencies and the equities. CAD or JPY or EUR move against USD following the different combinations of different factors.
            What about the equities they follow only the sentiment risk-on or risk-off.

  • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 8:45 am

    One of the keys for me is looking at both the US dollar and EURUSD charts, which are not at their targets. A week or two ago, I mentioned that I didn’t like the EURUSD triangle and that if it dropped the D wave slightly, I would simple expand the triangle.

    That seems to be what it’s done, so I’m still looking for a completion of that E wave, which is in progress (it looks like). The US Dollar chart has to at least do a double bottom.

    Put this together with triangles in the cash indices and it all looks almost complete, but not quite.

    • AZ June 24, 2016, 8:52 am

      Peter ,

      You might be right , and that would complete my pattern by reaching at least 1234 , since now it looks completely wrong by not getting to that target .

      However I feel we still need to go down at least by Monday / Tuesday of next week , before we go up again.

      • John June 24, 2016, 8:58 am

        I agree
        Next week people realize and we will see an other down move.

  • Peter Temple June 24, 2016, 9:14 am

    For anyone interested, Andy Pancholi posted a video, in which he takes you through the June issue of his “Market Timing Report.” It’s at the top of the post.

    • John June 24, 2016, 9:19 am

      Thanks Peter I like his style.

  • scott June 24, 2016, 10:57 am

    at this point, it appears once again everyone is out thinking themselves. markets have giving multiple 2nd chance opportunities to set up at the multiple top line w/ non convincing volume at spx 2100 area. a bearish debit put spread of aug/sept or a bearish credit call spread was the drink of choice. now you are all praying for a bounce back to the levels we were just at yesterday. the above triangle has broken with a widening megaphone breakdown with superior volume damaging the chart on a black swan event. imo there is no insignificant coincidence that this occurred the same day of the release of Independence day resurgence, Trump in Scotland, Nigel being a 9 life path in a 9 universal year. This is the year of upsets and whipsaw turnarounds. the unexpected has been the norm since the 1st week of january. we have had a series of out of bounds highly unlikely events occur. Yet the masses keep looking for predictability.

  • Joe June 24, 2016, 12:22 pm

    Scott
    Im not sure how long you have been on this blog
    i would not say anyone here is praying for a bounce .
    from the sounds of it your bearish and looking for the world to end
    which it wont .
    the markets move both up and down .
    today decline in the cash index’s is less than the overnight futures
    by a long shot . yes the market can go lower and most likely will
    but i wouldn’t expect it to be a straight down affair .
    don’t pat yourself on the back to soon
    Joe

    • scott June 24, 2016, 1:25 pm

      joe, you know nothing about my comments and have said the same for at least 45 days on this blog as Peter can attest. I have been consistent is suggesting the exact same strategy near 211 on at least 2 other occasions. not patting myself on the back , just saying i told you so. brexit is the 1st domino to fall. truth is being revealed. i wouldn’t put any new bearish positions in at this level because the btfd crowd and central banks will continue to keep try and keep the dream alive til they are crushed. the global reset has been forecast for some time. look at the cover of the economist in jan 1986

  • valley June 24, 2016, 12:39 pm

    Next week lunars have positive tail wind that lasts into early July. If Monday is further selling “may be” snap back rally to 2150 by July Fourth. Brexit is binary event that may overwhelm any lunar/seasonal effect.

  • rotrot June 24, 2016, 2:37 pm

    rotrot June 10, 2016, 1:08 pm
    not interested in trying to convince anyone of anything…the facts are the facts…SPX, INDU, NYA, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, SVXY have all signaled downtrends…UVXY has signaled uptrend…the highs on the indices are in…check the daily and weekly SVXY charts for confirmation…

    rotrot June 11, 2016, 5:33 am
    SVXY weekly trend…
    https://twitter.com/allerotrot/status/741593519299629056
    _____________________________________________________________

    the early June highs have not been exceeded…

  • Joe June 24, 2016, 5:34 pm

    Scott
    I agree with you and your correct i don’t know about your posts .
    Odd day for me
    Joe

  • Job Abraham June 25, 2016, 7:41 am

    Long term SPX count

  • Eddie P June 25, 2016, 11:23 am

    First of all I am a beginner on this EW thing…I am looking at your 2 hour SPX chart posted on Tuesday June 21 at 7:15pm. My question is…

    Could white C peaking at 2011ish actually be yellow wave 1 of the Ending Diagonal…

    Then parenthesis light blue wave (4) actually be a 3 wave down move to yellow wave 2…

    Then your yellow wave 1 actually be yellow wave 3…

    Then your yellow wave 2 actually be yellow wave 4…

    Then Thursday’s high actually be yellow wave 5…

    Thus the Ending Diagonal finished on Thursday …and we are now in wave 3 down!!!

    I await your response!

  • Dave June 25, 2016, 7:09 pm

    Scott, please continue with your thoughts on the market. I may not always agree with what you are communicating. We need more people like your self, thinking out side of the box. Many times I will read comments that I may or may not agree with, but some times I will gain a insight on some thing I was not looking at. Some times I will get chicken skin ( intuitive hit) with what the person is saying is true. All the best to you Scott.

  • Job Abraham June 26, 2016, 3:33 pm

    85 year supercycle coming to an end
    https://jobjas.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/spx.png

  • Peter Temple June 26, 2016, 3:36 pm

I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. However, due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer comments.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic.

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