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The Waiting Game

The futures markets have been open for hours as I write this, confirming the count and direction for tonight, at least.

I always chuckle at the articles that pop up suggesting that each little move in the market is predicated on an event. The wonder tonight is why we’re headed up in the shadows of the Grexit. Well, you could attribute it to “Hopium”—the favourite drugs dispensed by governments and banks, but the real story it that the wave simply has to complete as part of a larger picture.
NYSEJun 21

For example, you can see by the chart above of the NYSE, that my count shows that we’ve come down in five waves and retraced in three waves (a countertrend move). However, the three waves are not complete.

In Elliott wave lingo, this is a flat or zigzag. A flat is a 3-3-5 configuration. In other words the first wave up (a wave) has to be in 3, the second wave down has to be in 3 (b wave) and the third (c wave) has to be in 5. So far, it’s in 4, so we need to head back up to the most recent wave top at $11,137 and change. It actually looks more like a zig zag, which is a 5-3-5 configuration. The outcome is the same.

We’ve already started up tonight in the e-mini futures (ES and NQ) and EUR/USD (other currencies are moving in tandem). You’ll find that we’re beginning a convoy as most market assets are starting to move closer and closer in lock-step, as debt deleveraging happens in earnest.

Today being the summer solstice adds to the prediction of a major turn down (in the next 48 hours or so) and we have Grexit weighing heavily on the outcome, as well.

Other Major US Indices

The Nasdaq should go to a double top to end off the fifth wave. The SP could actually make a new high (it’s very close, but I do tend to this it’s done) and the DOW should move similar to the NYSE … it’s the weakest of the three. Signs of a very sick market.

Greece

The latest (overnight) from zerohedge.com.

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{ 9 comments… add one }
  • John vd Meer June 22, 2015, 2:53 am

    Thanks you for the update Peter,

    It looks promising indeed it’s all “Hopium”
    The situation in Europe looks a bit similair like summer 2011.
    Two big jumps before the final sell off into the lows so I agree things can turn arround verry quickly now.
    I believe if this does happen we will see the first lows arround July 2 (full moon).
    I tried to ad my email adres on your list but it did not work can you do that for me?

    Thanks..

    I like your updates..

    Best regards

    John.

    • peter June 22, 2015, 6:36 am

      John,
      Someone else mentioned the sign-up problem. I’ll check it all out this morning. I added a link to the latest about Greece from zerohedge.com.
      Thanks, John.

      • John vd Meer June 22, 2015, 9:28 am

        Oke Peter thanks,

        June 24 is an important date from an astrology standpoint if there is a top we should go down maybe till July 23..

        • peter June 22, 2015, 10:20 am

          My sign up was really messed up for some reason. Seems to be working now. Thanks for flagging it! I added you.
          From a cycles standpoint, I have us heading down through about the first or second week in August. There should be two waves. So the first one might end at in mid July. We should get a mild 4th wave bounce in there somewhere.

  • John vd Meer June 22, 2015, 11:05 am

    Thanks again..
    The planet mercury plays an important role it can really pinpoint tops and bottoms
    So I have the following turningpoints June 24, July 2, July 23 and September 4
    so it’s possible July 23 is a top we will wait ande see..

  • John vd Meer June 23, 2015, 6:57 am

    Hello Peter,

    I don’t know if you follow the bradley siderograph but this weekend was spot on a turn
    June 20/21
    The European markets made a big jump up
    Next verry important turn is June 27/28 again so this weekend with a low in the graphic arround July 15. (but it can also be a top )..

    Best regards

    John.

    • peter June 23, 2015, 7:17 am

      No, I don’t follow Bradley. However, a quick look now tells me it follows almost exactly our planetary prognosis.

      I am also watching the currencies closely, from an Elliott wave perspective. It looks this morning as though we’ve done a fourth wave down, which means one last fifth wave up … not a very big one. In fact, they may have actually topped.

      In any event, it suggests we’re a day or two away from a top in currencies and I would expect everything to turn down together, including equities. The US dollar is in the same position in the opposite direction, of course. I may post some charts today.

  • John vd Meer June 24, 2015, 9:20 am

    Hello Peter,

    End of the waiting game last wave up?
    Mercurius had it’s top today let find out..

    Best regards

    John.

    • peter June 24, 2015, 12:08 pm

      John,
      I’m not yet sure what this wave down today is … so far. I count five waves up in the previous wave, so we should be done. So far, though, we’re three waves down. Let’s see if we get a 4th wave bounce and a fifth down …

      This should be the start of a third wave down in the SP, DOW and NYSE by my count.

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