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Traversing the Cusp

We’re on the cusp of two worlds colliding. We’re leaving the corrupt old world, which is self-destructing, and entering the birthing phase of a new society. This is a global transition—a 500 year cycle of revolution.

The new environment (after a horrendous clash) will be harsher, simpler, focus more on humanity, and overturn the oligarchy that exists throughout the world today. The moneylenders will gradually lose their hold on the pursestrings of the world. They’re already feeling the pressure, and although they’ll resist, they won’t win. They never have through any of the previous five hundred year cycle turns.

It won’t be an easy transition—it will be traumatic, but the outcome will be for the better. Each major five hundred year revolution furthers democracy, freedom from financial oppression, and re-balances the social and economic playing field.

Here’s an overview of what to expect as we move through the biggest changes we’ve experienced in our lifetime—in fact, more intense change than any of several generations before us. This is all based on historical data collected over past 500 year transitions.

Climate

At the transition from Warm to Cold: Clustering of storms, floods, changeableness, heavy snows, blizzards, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and volcanoes (volcanoes especially at the top of warm phase as it turns colder). Volcanic ash in the atmosphere causes the climate to cool.

The early stage of a cold period is wet (usually much less in length than the drier stage that follows). Hence the floods we’ve experienced around the world.

Politics

Leaders become weaker as the warm period reaches its peak. As we move into the colder climate, leaders become even weaker still, reigns are shorter and historically there is palace intrigue, suicide, and murder in the political realm.

At the moment, you can see the clash between the elite class and the commoners in the American election. Clinton is supported by the establishment (the elite and particularly the international banking community) and Trump represents the working man. It this revolution has truly taken hold, Trump will win. Even it he doesn’t, the people’s social revolution will eventually win.

Economy

Financial collapses always accompany a move from warm to cold climate. You can also find this attribute on a much smaller scale. For example, 1929 was a very cold year. My blog post entitled “Don’t Like the Climate, Wait a Cycle!” follows the temperature and the performance of the DOW over the past 100 years, so you can see how the fluctuating temperature helps predict the movement of the market. What’s actually happening is much more complex that a simple “cause and effect” link, but nonetheless, the correlation certainly exists.

Social

Social mood turns negative every 172 years and leads to a major revolution.

Ever wonder why the entire world seems to get angry all at the same time? The mood of the masses change in a cyclical manner. This is why revolutions are world-wide. It’s also why economic slumps are world-wide. You can see this phenomenon occur again and again all through history. We’re influenced by electromagnetic waves from the the planets and Sun—the influence has been scientifically proven, although we are in our infancy in understanding the specifics. You can find out more in my blog post and video, “Puppets on a String?” I also provide a short explanation on my Social Mood page on the “Master the Edge” site.

Health

You can see the effect of periods of colder climate on our health in the chart below:

Pandemics1-web

The red arrows mark the temperature highs. They happen approximately every 1030 years and then it turns colder for several hundred years. There are smaller spikes at regular periods in between the major highs.

However, whenever there’s a downturn in the temperature, human health suffers. There isn’t necessarily a cause and effect link between climate and health. But there is between mood and health. When people are fearful or suffer from depression, their health deteriorates.

These downturns also turn turn human mood negative. Civilizations tend to crumble and the economy takes a big dive. You can see my blog post on this subject here.

Safety

Personal safety is going to become a critical issue going forward. When people go hungry en masse, violence and anarchy break out. Large cities are going to be especially hit hard as transportation systems break down and even fresh water becomes scarce. My upcoming free webinar, entitled “Navigating the Crash” is going to address some of these issues and how to prepare for these very difficult times worldwide.

You can see the transition in the area of food with a story this weekend on NBC that featured a group helping homeowners to set up mico farms on their front lawns. Here’s a similar article in the Huffington Post. The signs of the transition we’re going through are everywhere. There was also news item this weekend on the  return of doctors doing house calls. Ah, the power of cycles!

Our Monetary System

This revolution is about our monetary system. It’s a continuation of the historical fight between the growing power of moneylenders versus the financial domination of the common man. You can trace if back to Jesus upsetting the moneylenders in the Temple. His lost his life, as a result.

We have a similar class struggle today. Every major nation is now beholden to the private banking cartel of Europe (and the Federal Reserve in the US). It’s a contract with the devil.

These private banks create money from nothing and then charge compounding interest to countries to use that money. This is ridiculous, of course, because most of these countries can (and have done do before) create their own money at no interest, lend it to their population at low interest, and use that interest to pay for all government services and virtually wipe out the need for taxes.

This is the system that was in effect in Canada before 1974, Australia before 1991, and in the US before 1913. The tax system we have today was developed because of the need to fund these exorbitant and totally unnecessary interest charges. Now all the major G7 nations are bankrupt, the money being owed to these private bankers. I expect to see the growth of public banks again after the coming financial crash, as happening in the Great Depression. History repeats.

Traits of the Transition

Here are some of the changes you can expect as we move from the warm dry climate of the late 20th century through the current wet-cool short cusp to the cooler dryer climate of the next several hundred years (from the research of Dr. Ralph H. Wheeler):

General traits of a cold-dry period: Anarchism, financial depression, inadequate government, weak leaders, civil wars rather than international wars, mass migration, pandemics, and class revolution.

Below are some contrasting traits:

Warm Dry Period Left Behind Cold Dry Period We’re Entering
dictatorships (too much gov’t) democratization (insufficient gov’t)
imperialism (rising national spirit) cosmopolitanism (falling national spirit)
expansion/annexation migrations/less organized invasions
world wars (strong vs. strong) civil wars (strong against weak)
national fascism, totalitarianism anarchy, freedom of individual
federal rights individual rights
long reigns, good rulers (early warm) short reigns, poor rulers
growth of cities move from city to country
rising prices (inflation) falling prices (deflation)
increase in luxuries decrease in luxuries
less prostitution (early warm) increase in prostitution, abnormal sexual behavior
Golden Age (early warm) Dark Age
increase in religious regulation personal orthodoxy
neglect of grammar attention to grammar, lexicographers
abstract harmony and melody simple melody, folks songs
simple, plain, dignified fashion turns complex, ornate, elaborate
high birth rate to low birth rate (late warm) low birth rate
learning by discovery learning by drill
idealism (philosophy) hedonism
manufactory expansion agricultural expansion
polite comedy in literature vulgar comedy
culture: aristocratic, refined, profound (early warm) move to plebian, vulgar, superficial
art: emphasis on abstract form and line complexity, ornateness, stiff, crude

The Market

No, the US market has not topped.

The Elliott wave principle has worked every since the market has been tracked. It’s simply the cycle pattern by which the market moves. I refer to it as a mathematical representation of the mood of the herd. It will trace out a pattern to its natural end—until the negative mood outweighs the positive mood—within society as a whole, worldwide.

I’ve been consistently correct since I began posting here in early 2015 (except for one time*). I can’t understand why people think it’s going to fail now. That’s anti-cycle thinking. Cycles repeat. Once they’ve been proven to exist (repeatable at least 15 times), the whole idea is that you expect them to repeat again.

I suppose you can refuse to believe in nature’s laws, but then, I don’t know why you’re on this site, if that’s the case

* I’d called for a top at the August 20, 2015 high, but when the first index reached a new high in mid July of this year, I reversed my call and declared that all indices would need to reach a new high (NYSE is the laggard). Right now, the key indices are below that previous high, but I’m calling for a little less than a seven percent rise above the previous high to cap this current ending diagonal pattern.

Looks like we’ll have yet another “surprise” this week (although not a surprise to me). The reason—a three wave countertrend move.

Here’s a chart from this week showing a three wave rally with my prediction for a complete retrace (while others were adamant that we’re heading up):

Three Waves Retracees-12-16-15-min-10_14_2016-copy

Posted Friday morning, October 14: Above is the 15 minute chart for ES. I thought I’d write about this morning’s rally to give you an idea of what I’m looking for in determining whether this is motive (heading much higher in a new, major wave rally) or corrective (destined to fail).

The important wave here is the first one, the blue A wave. It’s in three waves. It’s a zigzag (5-3-5), meaning that if you drilled down, you’d be able to count 5 waves in the a and c waves of that blue A wave. Once you have a first wave up in 3 waves, it doesn’t matter what follows, because the rule is that it’s eventually going to retrace.

The blue C wave follows and it’s in 5 waves. If this wave had been the first wave, then we’d be looking for a 62% retrace and once we’d seen that, we’d know we’re going up a lot further. BUT the 3 waver in the blue A wave tells us we’re not.

Even if we’re not sure of the count of the first wave, we need to see a second wave after the first one is complete, and that second wave has to retrace 62%.

So I didn’t know the exact top on this wave this morning, but I knew it was going to turn down and completely retrace at some point. I had a target of 2141, but it exceeded it slightly.

Another point is that if ES has 3 waves, all the major indices will have 3 waves (except possible the Nasdaq, which can sometimes do its own thing).

The target on the downside is still about 2100.

Projections For the End of the Rally

es-12-16-daily-10_19_2015-10_14_2016

Above is the daily chart of ES (emini SPX futures). We’ve been in this fourth wave of the ending diagonal for 8 weeks. The second wave took 2 months plus a week, so the fourth wave should be nearing an end.

Usually the second and fourth waves in motive waves will be of similar magnitude (the fourth wave a bit longer) but in an ending diagonal, the waves get smaller as they move towards the termination, which is a fifth wave up to a new high, with a “throw-over” above the upper trendline. Expect the fourth wave to be slightly shorter in time.

Ending diagonals are triangles but they’re also part of motive waves. In fact, they’re the only triangle fitting under the banner of motive waves (as opposed to corrective waves). Ending diagonals are always the ending wave of the pattern.

As per my chart of the “Three Wave Retrace” pattern, the pattern down is also in 3 waves and will have to retrace back up to the top.

Summary: This is the final fourth wave dip before the final fifth wave and the top of the largest bubble in history. I expect a little more downside before we turn up again to head for a new all time high.

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chart-showThe Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis for the US market, gold, silver, oil, and major USD currency pairs.

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I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. However, due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer comments.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic.

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