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February 21, 2016
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Just looking at some trend lines and i thought there could be a slightly different count on this wave 4 down. May be more of a flag than a pennant. Peter is this a viable move?
December 29, 2013
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Yeah, a flag or pennant is traditional technical analysis—what I learned very early on before I got into EW. Nothing wrong with it. It doesn’t have anything to do with Elliott Waves. I didn’t learn that they had lettered or numbered waves, though. They’re simply a countertrend move, the way I understand them.
I will add that with a flag or pennant, you would expect to exit to the upside in this case, so it’s saying the same thing in a different way.
I just looked it up. This is a bullish flag, of course, and usually signifies the middle of a move, breaking to the upside. Volume will diminish as is heads downward and then pick up when it turns to exit.
If I do the measurement, it seems to indicate 2133 or around there, as the end of the move.
February 21, 2016
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I certainly agreed with the move to the upside, was curious if the route in which we complete the counter trend move could be a little different. Granted that upside should be pretty limited ~70 spx points from the current SPX 2050.
Based on your other analysis, i would assume that the 2133 target would be unlikely? it doesn’t seem to break any rules (though really close!) about being the completion of a larger wave 2 if 2133 ends up being the final number.
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