Or a Double Bottom Ahead?
My take at the moment, is that we’re only going to get a single bottom, and we that we haven’t seen the end of this fourth wave down yet.
Relatively speaking, based upon the corrective wave structure up from March, this has been a notably long (in terms of time) fourth wave. SPX has now descended from the 3390 top for a total of 17 days (over three market weeks) and has, by the looks of it, another couple of days to go.
My bias this weekend is to the downside, as it looks to me like we have an ending diagonal playing out in ES, NQ, and possibly in SP500 and NDX. In any case, the waves up in the past couple of days are corrective and we haven’t satisfied typical fibonacci ratios for a C wave down.
The other thing we haven’t seen is fear. A fourth wave should exhibit some fear at the lows, but we really haven’t seen that aspect of this drop.
So, my bias is for a new low in an ending diagonal on Monday/Tuesday, perhaps, following by a dramatic turn to the upside. This does not mean we’ll see much of a change to my prognosis of either a diagonal or triangle as part of the fifth wave.
___________________________
AMZN — This Weekend
Above is 30 minute chart of AMZN showing us the setup at the end of the day on Friday.
I’m posting this chart and the one below in light of the fact that the current direction in futures (at least, at the end of the day on Friday, seemed questionable. I would normally access other US indices to get a sense of how their current patterns might support my analysis, or not. The other indices, however, currently all have the same pattern (or similar) as SPX and NDX, so that doesn’t help.
Often, I have to go farther afield and analyze individual stocks.
The chart of Amazon (above) shows two sets of corrective waves up, and on Friday, did not make a new session high. Presently, it’s set up to drop back down to the 2845 area. Note that, similar to ES, it has not quite made it to the fibonacci measured target.
AMZN — This Weekend
Above is 30 minute chart of AAPL showing us the setup at the end of the day on Friday.
This pattern up is similar to that of AMZN. It has one abc wave up from the bottom and then three waves down, followed by three corrective waves up that also did not go to a new high. This pattern is bearish.
It’s a long way from the most obvious downside objective, based upon a 1.618 extension of the A wave down. Note that I can measure from all three apexes of the A wave (two above the current level), and they all point to 94.19. While it seems like a stretch to get there, I have to listen to what Mr.Elliott and Mr. Fibonacci are telling me.
Both these charts are calling for another leg down, so I suspect that’s where we’re going on Sunday. We may not finish by Monday morning, as if we’re in an ending diagonal in ES and NQ, it should come down in three waves (or at least a corrective pattern of some sort)
Know the Past. See the Future
_______________________
Free Webinar Playback: Elliott Wave Basics
If you’re new to the Elliott Wave Principle, or even fairly comfortable with it, this webinar will give you a solid introduction and comprehensive understanding of the difference between trending and counter-trend waves, the various patterns for both types of wave patterns, and a good overview of how fibonacci ratios determine trade targets.
This is link to the YouTube playback video, allowing you to review, stop and start, etc.
____________________________
Want some truth?
My new site now has two extensive newsletters in place. Videos now explain the banking system and deflation, and I’ve provided lists of what to do and what the start collecting in preparation for the eventual downturn, which will last for decades. The focus of my new site is now to retain your wealth, plan for deflationary times, and stay healthy in the process. I’m also debunk a lot of the propaganda out there. It’s important to know what’s REALLY happening out there! Getting to the real truth, based on history, is what I do, inside the market and out.
To sign up, visit my new site here.
All the Same Market.
I’ve been mentioning for months now that the entire market is moving as one entity, the “all the same market” scenario, a phrase that Robert Prechter coined many years ago, when he projected the upcoming crash.
We’re in the midst of deleveraging the enormous debt around the world. Central banks are losing the control they had and we’re slowly sinking into deflation world-wide, with Europe in the lead.
The US dollar is fully in charge of both the equities and currencies markets. They’re all moving in tandem, as I’ve been saying since September of 2017. Over the past three years, their movements have been moving closer and closer together and one, and now they’re in lock-step, with the major turns happening at about the same time.
it’s challenging because often times currency pairs are waiting for equities to turn, and other times, it’s the opposite. The other frustrating thing is that in between the major turns, there are no major trades; they’re all, for the most part day-trades. That’s certainly the case in corrections, where you very often have several possible targets for the end of the correction.
We’re now close to a turn in the US indices, currency pairs, oil, and even gold. Elliott wave does not have a reliable timing aspect, but it looks like we should see a top very soon.
_________________________________
Rise above the rest … SM 2
 | Rise above the rest …I have only ever met a few people who, in their chosen fields (astrology, medicine, music, martial arts, technical analysis), rise above all the rest and you are one of them…you have ‘the gift’…and that’s why I’m a Trader’s Gold member. —SM |
A true expert in Elliott Wave FL 2
| A true expert in Elliott Wave …You are a true expert in EW analysis. What you provide is not available anywhere and is priceless. Subscription on your services is the best thing I have ever done. Many thanks for your effort to make me a better investor. I now have more trust in my investment decisions. I hope you will continue the excellent work! —FL |
The best of them JL 2
| The best of them …Last couple of years, I subscribed to several ‘market traders’. You are by far the best of them and the personal contact is awesome. Daily and daily updates are very well written! Besides your expertise in EW, I also like your cycles analysis. Best investment I ever made! —JL |
the real deal SM 2
| The real deal …‘Educational, insightful and thorough market analysis for all levels of traders. It’s Elliott Wave at its best….Peter Temple is the real deal’ —SM |
Couldn’t be happier … KK 2
| Couldn’t be happier …The analysis and insight you provide is simply amazing! I’ve been trading the futures and equity markets for well over thirty years and usually average around 5% monthly. Since joining your Traders Gold Service two months ago, that number has better than doubled. I couldn’t be happier.—KK |
Get an upper hand … JC 2
| Get an upper hand in trading …Seeing all the different currency pairs and the wave structures and hearing you explain why this has to do that on a nightly bases gives one a upper hand when trading. Elliott Wave applies to all stock and indices and can be applied to any candlestick chart. If someone ask what you want for Christmas – Tell them a membership to Peter’s “Traders Gold!”—JC |
Have not had a losing week RW 2
| Have not had a losing week …I have been with Peter almost a year. The only thing that matters is have I made money with his service. I think I have finally turned the corner using Peter’s EW. I have not had a losing week in the last 5 months. Thanks Peter, for your amazing amount of hard work. —RW |
Tops in your field DZ 2
| Tops in your field …You are tops in your field. Tried to follow Elliot Wave international for years. They were always behind the market. After discovering you, I perceive that you are an expert in reading the waves, which puts you way ahead of the rest of your peers. And you can read the Waves like you are reading tomorrow’s financial section. I pray you stay healthy. —DZ |
US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)
This chart is posted to provide a prediction of future market direction. DO NOT trade based upon the information presented here (certainly NOT from a daily chart).
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).
The blue arrow line down (the red B wave down) denotes that the wave up is corrective and will completely retrace. In fact the entire wave up from 2009 is a corrective B wave. The cycle top, and top of the fifth motive wave, was in 2007.
We remain in this extremely long (time-wise) fourth wave of the rally up from March. The rally is corrective.
I'm expecting more weakness into the first part of next week and then we should see the start of a rise into the fifth wave. This weekend, we still don't appear to have bottomed, nor have we hit my fibonacci target on the downside.
We may, in fact, have traced out an ending diagonal in ES and NQ which may end up exceeding my 3200 target for SPX on the downside.
I still expect prolonged fifth wave up to a new high and I'm eyeballing the Nov. 3 election now for a turn to the downside finally, which is promising to be dramatic and volatile.
Almost all the currency pairs I cover are in ending expanding diagonals, as is oil, and DXY. DAX (the German exchange) appears to be in similar pattern. So, we have ending patterns (which happen to be diagonals) almost right across the board. Now, it's only a matter of time. The market needs one more high.
For final, measured highs, I have somewhat speculative targets of 3636 or 3700 for the SP500 and 3635 or 3675 for ES.
___________________________
Summary: It's an exhausted market getting close to top, which I now think will coincide with the US election.
The SP500 appears to be in a kind of broadening top formation (not an EW pattern) on a weekly chart. Other US market indices have completely different patterns, which is the sign of a very sick market, and one in the final stages of this 500 year rally, and a corrective B wave up from 2009.
I'm expecting a final high before we have major turn down.
The coming descent should be a fourth similar to the previous one, with a target under 2100 in SPX, and will likely be a combination pattern and, as such, may contain zigzags, flats, and possibly a triangle or ending diagonal at the bottom. However, I lean towards another series of zigzags, which are corrective waves.
Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final slight new high in a fifth wave of this 500 year cycle top.
______________________________
Trader's Gold Subscribers get a comprehensive view of the market, including hourly (and even smaller timeframes, when appropriate) on a daily basis. They also receive updates through the comments area. I provide only the daily timeframe for the free blog, as a "snapshot" of where the market currently trades and the next move on a weekly basis.
I do a nightly video on the US indices, USD Index (and related currency pairs), gold, silver, and oil) right down to hourly charts (and even 5 minutes, when required).
______________________________________
