World Cycles Institute

# The Ultimate Cycle Turn

Update: Friday April 29, 1PM, EST

Above is the 60 minute chart of ES (SPX emini futures) showing the fourth wave triangle in progress. I will post a little study in the forum on the weekend so you can see how the blue circle area has resolved itself. If you’ve been following along, you know that I was having an issue with the c wave up in that area as it was in three waves. In hindsight, of course, it’s because this has been a triangle all along (and that was the clue).

We still need to trace out the D, E, and 5th wave up to the top. Although not shown by the arrowed lines, these waves will all be in 3’s and this will at long last end the larger second wave pattern.

I have overlain the fibonacci retracement tool so that you can see how the length of the C wave is the correct length (the ABC length is 1.618 X wave A). The wave down is in a clear 3 waves.

Updated at 4PM EST:  Above is the 30 minute chart of the SP500 showing the same ending pattern—a fourth wave triangle. It will resolve in a similar manner to ES.

I’ve marked on the abc (lower case) labels so  you can see that the A wave down (of the triangle’s C leg) is in 3 waves. This is the clue that the wave down that we had today could not be motive. A motive wave always has subwaves in 3 waves and this does not. Therefore, it cannot be a motive wave. The only option was some king of corrective wave and so it was relatively easy, once the wave down has hit its target, to see that we’d begun a fourth wave triangle.

Triangles are the final pattern before a single ending wave to the top, so it won’t be much longer.

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Update: Friday Early Morning, April 29, 12:15 AM EST

We may not be at the Ultimate Cycle Turn yet, after all. Cycle turns don’t tell us direction, of course. We’re looking for the top, but Andy’s turns have been highly accurate at the top of the third, for example, and other points along the way. This turn (April 29/29) looks now like it’s pointing up.

Today, we simply extended the fourth wave, tracing out a C wave. Interestingly enough, the height of the remaining gap between the bottom of today’s 4th wave at the end of the day and the previous most recent high is exactly 1.618 X the length of wave 1, as it should be. Let’s look at three charts: the DOW, SP500, and EURUSD.

The targets haven’t changed, and the labelling hasn’t changed. The fourth wave is simply a little larger.

Above is the 15 minute chart of the DOW showing the larger 5th wave up in its entirety. I’ve overlain the fibonacci retracement tool across the gap between the bottom of the fourth and the projected top of the fifth. The length is 1.618 X the length of yellow wave 1, lower left corner of the chart, as it should be. We’re still looking at the same target. The direction is still up.

Above is the 15 minute chart of the SP500. It has exactly the same configuration as the SP500. Lengths of waves are relatively the same. The target is the same. The fourth wave is a little larger than it was yesterday.

In terms of the Nasdaq and NDX, the waves do not look motive. It too, has extended the fourth wave down. Analyzing NQ is a little tougher and I’m on the fence as to the structure of that particular wave at the moment. The related waves being corrective suggests it is also corrective.

ES (SPX futures) is clearly corrective. It still has to properly bottom tonight, by the looks of it.

Finally for this morning, here’s a daily chart of EURUSD, which is moving in tandem with the US indices. It’s slowly creeping to it’s final target as the US indices top. There are three probably targets left here for EURUSD. It’s either tracing out a triangle, which means it will have a couple of other legs to go (D and E), it will head up to the current (4) high, or exceed that slightly to test the 38% retrace horizontal line just above it.

Once it hits the target of its choice, it will reverse downwards into a very large fifth wave. The turn is imminent here, as it is with the US indices.

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Original Post (Saturday, April 23)

Welcome to the Top of the Third! (it’s also the top of the 2nd)

We’re here! Not right now, but later this week we’ll see the start of the big drop. Thursday, April 28th is the day—the ultimate cycle turn. We have Janet Yellen (Federal Reserve) in the afternoon before to kick things off (Wednesday, 2PM, EST). What could be more perfect!?

This is the ultimate cycle turn. Why “ultimate?” Because we’re going to head down into the third wave. This is the big one. It’s the one we’ve been waiting for.

From the Elliott Wave Principle: “Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Third ways usually generate the greatest volume and price movement, and are most often the extended wave in a series. Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. They also produce the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds.”

Preliminary Targets (at 2.618 X the length of the first wave down)

• SPX: 1405
• DOW: 10,460
• NDX: 2370

Last week in the video, I brought you up to speed on a host of markets and I’ll do the same this week. The predictions along the way have been highly accurate. Put the Elliott wave count together with Andy Pancholi’s Market Timing Report and you have what I refer to as “The Holy Grail of Trading.” Cycles give you the major turn dates and EW gives you direction and price.

You don’t want to miss this once in a lifetime opportunity coming up—to capitalize on the largest crash in history.

This Past Week:

• the VIX hit a new low of 12.50 (it will likely hit a double bottom, before advancing up)
• put/call ratio is .776, the lowest in 2 years
• volume continues to tank and had been moving steadily lower since Feb 11
• breadth continues to drop—only a few stocks are keeping this market up. It’s earnings report time, and we’re seeing more and more of the big guys drop in large down waves
• 5 day sentiment hit 83.4%, higher than even the market high on May 20, 2015. As contrarians, we always want a high sentiment number at a major turn and we’ve got one!

These are all attributes of a market in the final stages of a second wave, ready for a trend change.

A word about events. Events don’t affect the market to any great degree, of course. Social mood affects the market (it’s a mathematical projection of the social mood of the masses); human cause events as a result of their mood. The recent Doha conference on oil was a great example. Immediately after the announcement that the conference was a failure, the oil futures markets tanked. It was a corrective wave in 3 waves.

Well, the media and pundits were all over the story, until the next afternoon when it retraced and eventually went to a new high. That was because it’s in the middle of a pattern that requires a full retrace. It will turn down when the pattern is done and not before. It got really quiet on the pundit front. They had no idea what was going on. But, they never do. They don’t understand how the market moves (Elliott waves).

All the Same Market. I’ve been mentioning for months now that the entire market is moving as one entity, the “all the same market” scenario, a phrase that Robert Prechter coined many years ago, when he projected the upcoming crash.

One of the frustrating elements though, is that when the market turns, it takes longer than usual to do so, because the entire world (in terms of the major indices, and by extension, the mood of the masses) is turning at the same time. So, in this report, you’ll see an underlying theme of currencies moving in lock-step to the US equities, because … that’s what’s happening, something I noticed last September.

The entire world is moving to the tune of debt and the deleveraging that has to happen. All bubbles burst eventually and this one is one that will go  down in history, because it’s the largest debt bubble in history.

The direction of US equities is still up for the first three days, at least. Then I expect a big change. Thursday.

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Here’s a video overview of the market for Monday, April 25, 2016:

 Market Report April 25 REVISEDWatch this video on YouTube
 Make sure you zoom the video to full size with frame expander (arrows) in the bottom right hand corner and also set the quality to as high as your web connection allows. This is an HD quality video so the best viewing is at that level.

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The Charts Going into Monday

Note that there aren’t huge changes from last weekend. We’re simply progressing in this final wave and are virtually at the final target. I’ll start with ES to give you an idea of where we left off at the end of the day on Friday and then we’ll take a look at the bigger picture. Everything is pointing to the same end point and a major turn.

Above is the 60 minute chart of ES (emini SPX futures). I’ve completely re-labelled this wave and I’ll tell you why. The circled area has always been the area of contention, because it sports an abc pattern. However wave 1 was in 5 waves. Wave (i) looks like three waves, though. I’ve labelled it as a 1-2,1-2 pattern, as a result (that wave in 3 is still an issue, however).

I’ve labelled the entire wave up as a third wave within a larger five waves, because each of the major waves look like they’re in 5 waves and labelled this way, there is no overlap. However, it’s unusual for wave (ii) to be lower than wave 2 (in the circle). Usually the third wave is fully within the confines of the larger wave enclosing it, but in this case, it has fallen slightly below it.

This would make the final pattern we’re in probably a triangle. This works for timing due to the fact that we don’t have a cycle turn until April 28/29 (right after the fat lady Yellen sings). A triangle warns of only one final wave up after it’s over and that wave up is usually about the same height as the triangle itself. My target for SPX is still 2116/7.

Above is the daily chart of NYSE. I keep a fairly close eye on this index as it’s by far the largest in the world (in terms on capitalization). We are at the top of an ABC corrective wave (a bit more to go). I’m expecting a termination of this 2nd wave up at ~10648. This would “correct” the truncation and end in a double-pronged second wave. Third wave down should drop to around 6100.

Above is a two hour chart of IWM (Russell 2000). It’s traced out a very obvious ending diagonal and just has the throw-over to complete. This is a small caps stock base and should give a pretty good indication of what’s happening overall. It has a little more of the throw-over to do and may end up even with the top of the yellow 2 wave.

Above is the 4 hour chart of the SP500, showing the double 2nd wave top waiting to finish tracing out. This would negate the “truncation” and create a spectacular EW textbook set up for a huge third wave down.

Second waves have few restrictions. The key rule is that they can not retrace to the previous top. They should retrace between 62 and 100% (but cannot hit the 100% retrace level). I expect us to reach 2116 before a turn down.

It’s typical in a bear market for second waves to trace out a double prong (an ABC wave down in this case and a 5 wave structure up). The five wave structure, however, is not motive (subwaves won’t necessarily all be in “legal” 5 wave motive configurations).

Above is the 15 minute chart of the SP500, so I can focus in on the wave structure of this final wave up. From the fourth wave bottom, we have a wave up in 5 waves. There is no overlap, so this suggests a simple 5 wave ending wave. I have re-labelled the chart to reflect the final ending wave structure in 5 waves. This wave now mirrors ES above, but we look like we’ll have a final wave up in 5 waves, rather than a triangle.

Above is the 4 hour chart of the DOW. It’s similar to all the other indices, as it should be. I predicted we’d reach the previous 2nd wave high and that in fact is what we’re done. Look for a double top with the most recent high before a turn down.

Note that just about everywhere I look at individual stocks, we’re in huge second and fourth waves spikes. This whole market is about to turn.

A Major Inflection Point: Above is the weekly chart of USDCAD. I have been following this for some time, and called the bottom of the third wave, expecting a retrace (although unsure as to how deep it would be).

The larger pattern is an ABC corrective wave, but the C wave is in 5 waves. We are completing the 5th wave of this pattern (an ending diagonal), which should reach the 38% retrace level (shown by the bottom white line) before turning back up. The labels have been changed slightly in the ending diagonal to reflect more precisely the ending wave structure.

Once it turns and heads up, it will head up in a fifth wave to a new high, a very lucrative trade. The euro, Australian dollar, dollar, and Canadian dollar are at similar major inflection points.

A Major Inflection Point:  Here’s the daily chart of EURUSD showing the major corrective pattern from the low of March, 2104. I now don’t think we’ll rise to the previous 4th wave level, but most likely turn at a retest of the most recent high. We will either end up with a 2nd wave (yellow 2) or the C leg of a triangle (which would still need a yellow D and E leg before it’s complete).

In the case of a D and E leg, they would like form as the US equities complete the first and second waves of the third down.

The eventual turn (at any level) should send up down into a very large 5th wave. It should turn in tandem with the US equities.

The US dollar (this is a 3 day chart) should do the same thing but in the opposite direction (up). I’m up in the air right now about the structure of this wave. Although in 5 waves, it looks more corrective to me than motive.

Short term, however, we’re heading up (after a pending double bottom).

Above is the 4 hour chart of GDOW (Global DOW) showing the current count. We’re tracing out a second wave after an ABC lower part of the wave. We have one more small leg up. It will likely retrace to the wave (2) level at about 2473.

Major international indices like the GDOW and NYSE are where I do for the overall count. I can be much more committed (as I was on the SP500 first wave down, while everyone was questioning it) when I see a count on these two indices which is clear.

Above is the daily chart of XGLD (gold). The movement of this asset is a no brainer. I called the ending diagonal at the bottom and turn up. I said it would head up in 5 waves to the previous 4th (around 1300). I also forecast a turn down in 3 waves. Now we’ve finished the a and b waves and will head down to the 1150 area.

There are two possible targets. The lower one is the 62% retracement (in this case, the c wave will be 1.618 X the length of the a wave). It could also come down just to the 1.618 extension of the A wave (the higher horizonal line at 1155.42). From there we’ll head up in a C wave to somewhere around 1600 before heading back down again to around 750 (months away).

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First Wave Down – What to Watch For

This weekend we’re dangerously close to a top of a second wave (in the fifth of the fifth, with an ending diagonal pattern).

What we’re looking for to confirm a turn is a motive wave down in 5 waves.

Because we have an ending diagonal, the first wave will likely drop to the previous fourth, which is also the beginning of the ending diagonal pattern (~2022). After that, we should get a second wave that will retrace in 3 waves about 62%. That’s the preferred EW entry point. So don’t feel you have to rush in. There’ll be a much better opportunity at the second wave level than at the top and the risk is substantially reduced.

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History: The 1929 crash

I think it’s important to look at 1929 and the wave structure (above and below), which was the same as 2007—to a point. I will show the 2007 crash below in the “What If” section.

The wave structure of the 1929 crash was in 3 waves overall. There were 5 waves down from the top (the A wave) and then a very large B wave retrace. The final C wave down was a stair-step affair and lasted over 2 years.

Let’s look  a little close at the timing of the 1929 crash because the similarities to today are uncanny.

The market peaked on September 3, 1929 and then it took 2 months for the crash to actually happen (to reach the bottom of wave 5 of the A wave). The larger crash  which we always hear about began on October 23, 1929. Then there was that large B wave, which lasted 5 and a half months and finally (which I explain a little further in the cycles section below), the C wave which went on for more than 2 years. This might be the scenario we’re looking at going forward.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 9:00 am

ES should end wave 3 of 5 at 2094 (2.618 X wave 1), then we have a wave 4 retrace (38% likely) and then just the fifth of fifth to the top. (10 points + the 4th wave retrace).

• rich April 28, 2016, 9:25 am

WAAAHOOOO!! “thrusting” time for the spx… [i hope]….!

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 9:46 am

ES should drop now to 2085 and then turn back up in a fifth.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 10:18 am

I’m getting slightly different measurements on my distances for the drop, so ES might not make it all the way to 2085.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 9:41 am

It looks like NQ will only make it to the previous fourth, which makes sense. So that will put those related indices into the second half of the first wave. That means all the indices will be back in sync after the first wave down.

• Bill April 28, 2016, 10:17 am

Peter,

Would you short today or tomorrow around 2105 to 2116. When do you expect a low for now

Bill

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 10:23 am

Bill,
I think we’re likely to turn down first thing tomorrow. I wouldn’t short today. We won’t get all the way there today, I don’t think.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 10:28 am

Bill,
I don’t understand what low you’re talking about.

• Bill April 28, 2016, 12:38 pm

Just trying to understand once we turn how far and how fast we will go down..just trying to position using Puts. So are you expecting a short term bottom in May sometime.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 10:39 am

This relatively short drop for ES and SPX gives SPX a target range of 2110 (1.6) to 2119 (2.6) for the top. Those ratios are based on the length of the first wave of the C wave.

Looks like the 4th wave is done.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 11:15 am

The upper end of the range now is 2117 for SPX. That’s about right.

• rich April 28, 2016, 11:33 am

peter,
this price movement is so overlapping and sluggish. the spx/market looks exhausted in its attempt to overcome 2100 level. i am much less confident of you for the targets to be hit.
question- as the spx is now, [price levels aside] are there enough waves that have unfolded to have a complete ew count?

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 11:35 am

We’re right on schedule. It always makes the target.

• rich April 28, 2016, 11:39 am

i appreciate your confidence peter! :-))

• aaron April 28, 2016, 11:40 am

I love your confidence. Waiting to see the turn at your target and Andrew Pancholi’s cycle turn.

• Robert Whitley April 28, 2016, 11:40 am

Lol …I knew that was coming….

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 11:48 am

haha. But this wave can’t drop any lower in SPX because the top end measurement at 2.618 wave A is 2116.55.

• Robert Whitley April 28, 2016, 11:51 am

Peter…I’m showing Es levels now if 86.25 holds of 96….then 03….and 2114…
I have had 2112-2116 for a long time…do you agree?
Thanks

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 11:56 am

For ES, I’m showing a possible target at 2112. That might be a fifth of the third to there and then a fourth and fifth up to the same level to top it off. It should be a full 5 waves up given that we went to a new low for the larger fourth at 2072 or so. There are a couple of options for how the waves actually unfold.

• whitemare April 28, 2016, 12:12 pm

Merc is now retrograde. Could we revisit today’s low and still be in a wave 4?

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 12:16 pm

Depends on the index. In ES, yes, as long as we don’t go below it.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 2:45 pm

Good call, Whitemare!

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 2:57 pm

In actual fact, it seems that NQ needed one more wave down to finish its motive wave. I’m not sure of the count on NDX and Nasdaq comp, so we’ll have to see how they play out tomorrow. I’m still expecting a partial retrace on them … I think. I’ll need to see what futures do tonight.

• LizH April 28, 2016, 1:15 pm

Well, it looks like 4/27 was like 9/17 except the rug pull happened overnight. The ES 2057 gap looks really tempting.

• John April 28, 2016, 1:15 pm

Mercury retograde April 28 sudden switch in emotions ?

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 1:18 pm

Been away from the market for a little while. Hmm. We need to stop at this previous low or there’s a problem … a good problem, mind you. Otherwise, we just have a do-over until we get to the targets.

• John April 28, 2016, 1:21 pm

Or the date Andrew Pancholi 28/29?

• rich April 28, 2016, 1:29 pm

??? so “truncation” will never be considered?

• nicola2910 April 28, 2016, 1:29 pm

Peter, love you like brother, or Dad. Check your bullets. You the man ! But it sure looks like we are rolling over. You called this perfect ! Thanks, with deep respect…,..nick

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 1:44 pm

Wow, lots of nervous Nellies around here! This is not a motive wave down … anywhere. Relax. Be patient. Even if we get a motive wave down, it then has to retrace 62% in a second wave and that’s where you want to get in. But we’re obviously not there yet.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 1:47 pm

Once we top, the first wave down will look like the final part of the SP500 wave you just saw (sheer almost) but it’s going to drop from 2116 to 2020. You’ll know when it happens, as I keep saying.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 1:31 pm

A strange market, that’s for sure! I don’t know at the moment what’s in its broken little mind. We haven’t broken down and there are no motive waves, although pretty close. We’ll have to see if we follow through or reverse …

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 1:36 pm

Looks like a large 4th wave to me. We’ve come down to sit right on the previous fourth. Don’t know about our due date, but it looks like we still have to do a fifth wave up.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 1:50 pm

Futures need to come down a little bit further tonight to finish off this wave completely before we turn back up. We’ll see if we can mount an attack tonight or tomorrow to keep us within this cycle window.

• PA3 April 28, 2016, 1:51 pm

Do you put any weight on Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 7.6% at the moment?

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 2:15 pm

In terms of … ? The EW count in this market? No.

• PA3 April 28, 2016, 3:14 pm

In terms of a possible April 20th top and this being the kick-off of another wave down.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 3:20 pm

No. The count doesn’t support it. That’s what this is all about.

• Valley April 28, 2016, 4:18 pm

PALS and spx:
I am planning on a very volatile week next. Looking for rise to 2130 by next Thursday from bottom tomorrow or Monday at about current levels. This could be a nice 3 percent move into the Mercury inferior end of next week. Then possible sell off which often occurs day of or days following Mercury inferior. Next week is very positive on all lunar cylinders (phase new moon, distance falling, declination rising from South, tide rising).

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 9:16 pm

Valley,
We appear to have the bottom of the fourth wave in front of us. This market is struggling to finish up, so perhaps this turn date is for the fourth wave, because turn dates don’t give us direction, of course. Let’s see what the futures bring tonight.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 10:23 pm

I’ve posted a chart of the DOW and SP500 as at tonight at the top of the chart with an explanation of what we saw today. Not much has changed. The direction is still up.

• Peter Temple April 28, 2016, 10:40 pm

I also added a chart of EURUSD, which is also telling.

• rich April 29, 2016, 7:15 am

peter,
ew aside for one moment, some of my modified medium term technical indicators fired off “sell” signals yesterday shifting from “neutral”. so i am saying a big “hmmm” this morning ………the market is the final arbiter, so i will see if today we get follow through to yesterday’s downside move, or if we turn ‘up’ to try and hit that 2116 target. hmmm…..

• sco April 29, 2016, 7:42 am

I recall during December, quite a few respected TA folks were looking for a 5th wave ending diagonal (caldero and others) December truncated off and led to a jan/feb swoon. we got within 10 points of the target this go around as well. just sayin’. this go around quite a few time and price TA had 4/20 as the top. same date we hit 2105 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 7:57 am

The C wave in ES could end here or at about 2050 to be the correct length.

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 8:25 am

We may have a large triangle forming but we’ll need to see a bit more market action to know for sure. A triangle signifies the pattern before the final wave, which is good, but the triangle will take some time to complete.

I told the market we don’t have that kind of time, but it’s not listening …

It’s either that or the normal fifth wave up to go, as far as I can make out.

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 8:27 am

That’s what it’s looking like in cash. I haven’t had a really good look at futures yet.

• LizH April 29, 2016, 9:48 am

At this rate, ES might as well drop all the way down to 2039.

• t james April 29, 2016, 9:58 am

low sp futures 2046

thoughts anyone??

• rich April 29, 2016, 10:04 am

hmmm…. top is in – we truncated – andy’s cycle turning point is correct, we make our way to 2020 in the spx….that is my thought…

• t james April 29, 2016, 10:58 am

or big nasty triangle

• rich April 29, 2016, 11:09 am

tj, i am looking at the spx – my question is, what triangle?

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 11:13 am

The one I mentioned earlier and that is shown on the two charts at the top of the post.

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 11:03 am

I’ve updated ES and SPX at the top of the post.

• LizH April 29, 2016, 11:41 am

ES so far very weak and cannot push through downtrend line connecting lows of 4/19, 4/21, 4/22, 4/25.

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 11:44 am

ES has done 5 waves up and is working on the second wave of the A wave up.

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 11:46 am

Oops … ES may have overlapping waves so may test the bottom.

• rich April 29, 2016, 12:47 pm

hmmm….consolidation at the bottom part of the range usually indicates the market’s intention to move lower……??? hmm….

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 1:53 pm

A relatively painless entry into ES with the double bottom. The A wave should go up in 5 waves before we retrace in a B wave. I would expect the A wave to get up to about 2074 (perhaps 2078 in SPX).

• Peter Temple April 29, 2016, 2:10 pm

I updated the SP500 chart at the top of the post to show some subwaves, with an explanation. Hopefully this will help you analyze waves in future. I’ll update the major indices on the weekend. The final path should be fairly straight forward from here.

Andy nailed another turn date, just not the one we wanted.

• Peter Temple April 30, 2016, 7:51 pm

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic. Posting trade specifics does NOT serve an educational purpose, is stongly discouraged, and such comments may be removed.

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