Waiting for a Turn
This topping process is way-over-the-top frustrating due to the fact that all these asset classes have to turn at the same time.
That means they all have to get appropriately lined up. My analysis takes me longer than usual because I have to look at every asset I cover and correlate them with all the rest.
The end of the day on Friday was volatile, to say the least. President Trump was speaking and while I don’t know if the late day spike was due to that event, it certainly disrupted what was looking like we might have a top in place.
I’d stated several times in the last couple of days that NQ did not have a top, and probably needed one, and I was unsure of the top in ES, because it ended up being in three waves. On top of all this, measurements are questionable in ES and the wave structure is extremely difficult to decipher.
For example on a hour chart of ES, I can’t seem to get any fibonacci measurements to work. They seem to be on NQ, but not on ES. That means that having a more certain number for the “top tick” in ES is virtually impossible.
But we are “at a top” — and I’d expect to see one within hours, not days. On Friday morning, all asset classes were near potential tops:
Oil, currency pairs, and the US indices all have full corrective counts. I’m expecting a turn across the board very soon.
The COVID 19 “Scamdemic”
For some time now, I’ve been questioning the death rate numbers coming out of the US regarding the current pandemic. My take is that it’s another seasonal flu, over-hyped by the media and government fear-mongering.
The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) finally came out with their report, providing a solid estimate for the percentage of deaths for symptomatic cases: .26% — in other words, 2/10ths of one percent.
Given the fact that this is based on a 50% asymptomatic scenario (meaning there are probably twice as many people who had it that had no symptoms), that number may drop by half.
The bottom line is that this new virus is turning out to be less deadly than seasonal flu, even though doctors in the US have been instructed to “bump up” the death ratio by declaring anyone who may have died from other chronic diseases, instead had died from COVID-19.
In other words, another global-warming scam. It probably won’t be the last.
Here’s a summary blog post, with a link to the CDC report.
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Simmering Chaos in the US
As I finish my analysis and write up the blog post, violence is erupting in major cities all over the US. In my webinar this week, I talked about the coming revolution. This isn’t it, but it’s certainly a taste of what’s the come. The pattern of extreme inflation over the past century, the historic imbalance between the rich and poor, and the thinly disguised propaganda are combining with the blatant corruption to signal the end of an empire. This historically repeating pattern that affects all sectors of the economy, legal system, pharmaceutical industry, and government agencies will spark a potentially deadly reaction — a civil war.
I suspect there’ll be a cooling off period over the fall, but this summer is likely to be a tumultuous one. People are simply tired of the lies and abuse. Governments around the world will eventually fail. It’s time to seriously think about where you live and how to make sure you’ll be safe and secure over the coming years.
My webinar replay will is now on the front page of the site. It gives a good overview as to where we’re going and why. It’s history repeating and I’ve been warning about it for ten years. The revolution is inevitable, but it leads to a much better world on the other side.
We’ve been through it before; we’ll go through it again. Let’s hope the lessons learned will “stick” this time, because they haven’t in the past. In the word of George Santayana:
Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
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All the Same Market.
I’ve been mentioning for months now that the entire market is moving as one entity, the “all the same market” scenario, a phrase that Robert Prechter coined many years ago, when he projected the upcoming crash.
We’re in the midst of deleveraging the enormous debt around the world. Central banks are losing the control they had and we’re slowly sinking into deflation world-wide, with Europe in the lead.
The US dollar is fully in charge of both the equities and currencies markets. They’re all moving in tandem, as I’ve been saying since September of 2017. Over the past three years, their movements have been moving closer and closer together and one, and now they’re in lock-step, with the major turns happening at about the same time.
it’s challenging because often times currency pairs are waiting for equities to turn, and other times, it’s the opposite. The other frustrating thing is that in between the major turns, there are no major trades; they’re all, for the most part day-trades. That’s certainly the case in corrections, where you very often have several possible targets for the end of the correction.
We’re now very close to a turn in the US indices, currency pairs, and oil. Gold looks like it’s still on hold a little longer. Elliott wave does not have a reliable timing aspect, but it looks like we should see a top in the early part of the coming week.
Know the Past. See the Future
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Elliott Wave Basics
Here is a page dedicated to a relatively basic description of the Elliott Wave Principle. You’ll also find a link to the book by Bob Prechter and A. J. Frost.
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US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)
This chart is posted to provide a prediction of future market direction. DO NOT trade based upon the information presented here (certainly NOT from a daily chart).
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).
Last week and this week, the US indices have been completing the last leg. Not only that but oil has reached and new high, while currency pairs are sitting close to my identified turn points. With a full count in ES, I'm expecting a turn to the downside.
As I've been saying, virtually everything is going to turn at the same time. That's been the dilemma; all the assets I cover must get to their turn points before the turn can take place and it's been a pain-staking process waiting for that to happen.
All the US indices got to new highs and if all are either finishing up a small final rally, or at a top getting ready for a turn.
This weekend, virtually every asset I cover is close to a turn point.
Under the surface, this market appears to be falling apart.
The zigzags down from the 3400 area in the SP500 took a month for the entire trip. This correction has now almost taken two months, something that is HIGHLY unusual and speaks to the manipulation of the Federal Reserve and the influence on the US Dollar.
As I stated last week: There's a lot of manipulation going on (the Federal Reserve is doing whatever it can to prop up the market with more debt — a very stupid idea, and you and I will pay for it in the end. Inflation through the extraordinary "printing" of debt has had its affect on the market overall. However, the problem is simply too humongous (the dollar is worldwide) and the Fed will fail. We're getting close to seeing the result.
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Summary: We appear to be in a "combination" fourth wave down from the 3400 area. After the first set of zigzags down, we retraced 62% of the distance from the top. We've been sitting in this corrective ABC retrace for almost two months. However, it's showing signs of a top nearby at the same time it's showing underlying stress — it's close to falling apart.
I'm looking for a top nearby; it's only a matter of time now. Once we top, another set of zigzags down seems to be the most probable outcome for the journey to a new low, but it's early to be sure of the pattern.
Look for a new low below 2100: There are several possible measured objectives below that point. The timeframe has moved to early June, perhaps, for a final low.
Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final slight new high in a fifth wave of this 500 year cycle top.
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