Lots of Unexpected Volatility
The past week was a brutal week in futures, with lots of reactions to news. On Thursday night an ending diagonal broke and gave us a wave down that we were expecting after a new high — a nasty surprise. This was the start of a bearish B wave.
Friday was a very volatile day, with ES whipping up and down quite unexpectedly. On Friday, we had the news that most of the White House had contracted the virus. This news may give us the C wave in ES that we were expecting during the day on Friday. There were other surprises earlier in the week. It’s been a volatile one.
Part of this is due to the nature of B waves:
“B waves are phonies. They are sucker players, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality, or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). If the analyst can’t easily say to himself, ”There is something wrong with this market,” chances are it’s a B wave.” — Elliott Wave Principle
The B wave began Thursday night, with the announcement that Trump tested positive for the coronavirus and Friday, it was quite volatile, whipping up and down quite unexpectedly. That’s a B wave.
However, I’m still expecting a C wave down (of this larger B wave) come Monday morning, at the latest. That doesn’t rule out the start of a downturn over the weekend. However, there are indications that this B wave needs to test its high first, which is not far away.
If we get the C wave (of the B wave) that I’m expecting down to a level of about 3250 in ES, then that will be the long entry for the remainder of 5th wave — to result in a new all-time high, most likely in early November. It’s too early to know for sure, but we seem to be leading up to an ending diagonal, as I’ve laid out for you earlier this week.
We should have more of an idea of what our pattern is by mid-week, I would think. Things should came down once we’ve completed this large B wave to the downside.
Currency pairs, oil, and metals look like they’re all going to move in sync and will follow the lead of the US Dollar as it heads lower (EUR and AUD will head higher, JPY and CAD will turn down).
The Volatile Real World
It’s intense. The globalists (i.e., central bankers) are getting desperate. You can see this all across the globe with lockdowns, the requirement of masks for no apparent reason (other than what the media can conjure up), and the destruction that’s been going on at the hands of Black Lives Matter, a group in part funded by George Soros.
There has been a conspiracy by central bankers and other eugenicists to implement “The New World Order” that’s been going on for decades. It’s not a conspiracy “theory,” as they’ve been openly vocal about their intentions. In fact, it was obvious to me when i did my research on the Canadian financial situation about ten years ago.
In 1974, Pierre Elliott Trudeau contracted with the central bankers of the Bank of International Settlements to create our money for us, and charge us a fee for doing so. Now, this was something the Canadian government has done for itself for forty years beforehand, with no interest. Now, we have his tyrannical, corrupt son a the helm.
It allowed us to build the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Trans Canada Highway, and fund the Canadian medical system. However, in 1974, we gave up our sovereignty to central bankers, paying them exorbitant amounts of interest ($1 trillion in 2012 alone) so something we could easily do ourselves.
Now, as a country, we’re bankrupt, are all the G7 countries that signed the same contracts. You most likely know what it’s like when you’re in debt to a bank and can’t pay them back. You become a debt-slave. They can do as they want with you, unless you’re too big to fail, which Canada is not.
So, the tyranny is going to continue and get worse. It’s up to all of us to get the word out as to what’s going on. Knowledge of the tyranny amongst the greater population is the thing that will thwart their efforts to control. There’s much more on this on my site at thetruthsage.com.
I have more articles and videos coming for this site shortly.
It’s history repeating. It’s our freedom that’s at risk. Many have been warning about this time for over a hundred years:
“It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” — Henry Ford, inventor and founder of the Ford Motor Company.
“History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance.” — President James Madison
“A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within. The essential causes of the Roman decline lay in her people, her morals, her class struggles and failing trade, her bureaucratic despotism, her stifling taxes, and consuming wars.” —The Story of Civilization III (1944)
“Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce. And when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.” — President James Garfield, 1881. He was assassinated just weeks after making this statement.
“The real menace of our Republic is the invisible government, which like a giant octopus sprawls its slimy legs over our cities, states and nation… The little coterie of powerful international bankers virtually run the United States government for their own selfish purposes. They practically control both parties, … and control the majority of the newspapers and magazines in this country. They use the columns of these papers to club into submission or drive out of office public officials who refuse to do the bidding of the powerful corrupt cliques which compose the invisible government. It operates under cover of a self-created screen [and] seizes our executive officers, legislative bodies, schools, courts, newspapers and every agency created for the public protection.” — New York City Mayor John F. Hylan, New York Times, March 26, 1922
Know the Past. See the Future
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AAPL — This Weekend
Above is 30 minute chart of AAPL showing us the setup at the end of the day on Friday.
We didn’t get a new leg down last weekend as I suspected we might, but this pattern is still bearish, even though it’s heading up. I place AAPL in a 5th wave, but this pattern is a setup for an ending pattern, like a triangle, or more likely at this point, an ending diagonal.
First waves up of ending diagonals must be corrective (ABC wave) and this pattern certainly is that. Even if you decided to label it as a first, second, and third wave up, the fourth wave down now (at 113.02) is overlapping the first wave, so the pattern is obviously corrective.
Early in the coming week, I’m expecting a continuation of the move to the downside, but not to a new low. If we drop below the 108 level, that would be enough to expect we may see a third wave of an ending diagonal next, which would probably last at least a couple of weeks before a final fourth and fifth wave.
A triangle would require a much larger first wave and this is still possible. It would mean that after the next low, we’d have to turn up and rally in another five wave pattern to above 130.00 before a very large retrace. I think the probability for a triangle is lower than for an ending diagonal, but it’s early yet — we’ll know soon.
The first few days of next week will likely give us the answer to what pattern we’re going to get.
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All the Same Market.
I’ve been mentioning for months now that the entire market is moving as one entity, the “all the same market” scenario, a phrase that Robert Prechter coined many years ago, when he projected the upcoming crash.
We’re in the midst of deleveraging the enormous debt around the world. Central banks are losing the control they had and we’re slowly sinking into deflation world-wide, with Europe in the lead.
The US dollar is fully in charge of both the equities and currencies markets. They’re all moving in tandem, as I’ve been saying since September of 2017. Over the past three years, their movements have been moving closer and closer together and one, and now they’re in lock-step, with the major turns happening at about the same time.
it’s challenging because often times currency pairs are waiting for equities to turn, and other times, it’s the opposite. The other frustrating thing is that in between the major turns, there are no major trades; they’re all, for the most part day-trades. That’s certainly the case in corrections, where you very often have several possible targets for the end of the correction.
We’re now close to a turn in the US indices, currency pairs, oil, and even gold. Elliott wave does not have a reliable timing aspect, but it looks like we should see a top very soon.
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US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)
This chart is posted to provide a prediction of future market direction. DO NOT trade based upon the information presented here (certainly NOT from a daily chart).
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).
The blue arrow line down (the red B wave down) denotes that the wave up is corrective and will completely retrace. In fact the entire wave up from 2009 is a corrective B wave. The cycle top, and top of the fifth motive wave, was in 2007.
We bottomed the week before last in a rather strange manner, not having reached the fibonacci-measured target on the downside and tracing out what looked like a possible ending diagonal, but ended up being left incomplete. This week was a weak of missed targets and unexpected volatility. A difficult week to trade.
In any case, we're now in the final fifth wave and while the direction is up, I'm expecting weakness in the beginning of the week before a turn to the upside that should result in a rally through early November. The current corrective pattern up on the hourly chart suggests we may be in the early stages of an ending diagonal, but that remains to be seen.
The alternative for an ending pattern would be a triangle, but that would need a much larger rally before a large retrace to the downside in a C wave. At the moment, a triangle pattern is less likely than an ending diagonal.
I'm expecting a prolonged fifth wave up to a new high and I'm eyeballing the Nov. 3 election now for a turn to the downside finally, which is promising to be dramatic and volatile.
Almost all the currency pairs I cover are in possible broadening top (except USDJPY), as is oil, and DXY. DAX (the German exchange) appears to be in and ending expanding diagonal. So, we have ending patterns almost right across the board. Now, it's only a matter of time. The US market needs one more high.
For final, measured highs, I have somewhat speculative targets of 3636 or 3700 for the SP500 and 3635 or 3675 for ES.
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Summary: It's an exhausted market getting close to top, which I now think will coincide with the US election.
The SP500 appears to be in a kind of broadening top formation (not an EW pattern) on a weekly chart. Other US market indices have completely different patterns, which is the sign of a very sick market, and one in the final stages of this 500 year rally, and a corrective B wave up from 2009.
I'm expecting a final high before we have major turn down.
The coming descent should be a fourth similar to the previous one, with a target under 2100 in SPX, and will likely be a combination pattern and, as such, may contain zigzags, flats, and possibly a triangle or ending diagonal at the bottom. However, I lean towards another series of zigzags, which are corrective waves.
Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final slight new high in a fifth wave of this 500 year cycle top.
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