World Cycles Institute

Assessing Our Political and Social Progress

I’ve had a traumatic week dealing with technology melt-downs and am a bit behind, so I’m reverting back to some previous content this weekend. Here’s a post I wrote on October 16, 2016, describing the longer road ahead. It’s interesting, I think, to reflect on the three and a half months since and note the changes we’ve already seen.


We’re on the cusp of two worlds colliding. We’re leaving the corrupt old world, which is self-destructing, and entering the birthing phase of a new society. This is a global transition—a 500 year cycle of revolution.

The new environment (after a horrendous clash) will be harsher, simpler, focus more on humanity, and overturn the oligarchy that exists throughout the world today. The moneylenders will gradually lose their hold on the pursestrings of the world. They’re already feeling the pressure, and although they’ll resist, they won’t win. They never have through any of the previous five hundred year cycle turns.

It won’t be an easy transition—it will be traumatic, but the outcome will be for the better. Each major five hundred year revolution furthers democracy, freedom from financial oppression, and re-balances the social and economic playing field.

Here’s an overview of what to expect as we move through the biggest changes we’ve experienced in our lifetime—in fact, more intense change than any of several generations before us. This is all based on historical data collected over past 500 year transitions.


At the transition from Warm to Cold: Clustering of storms, floods, changeableness, heavy snows, blizzards, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and volcanoes (volcanoes especially at the top of warm phase as it turns colder). Volcanic ash in the atmosphere causes the climate to cool.

The early stage of a cold period is wet (usually much less in length than the drier stage that follows). Hence the floods we’ve experienced around the world.


Leaders become weaker as the warm period reaches its peak. As we move into the colder climate, leaders become even weaker still, reigns are shorter and historically there is palace intrigue, suicide, and murder in the political realm.

At the moment, you can see the clash between the elite class and the commoners in the American election. Clinton is supported by the establishment (the elite and particularly the international banking community) and Trump represents the working man. It this revolution has truly taken hold, Trump will win. Even it he doesn’t, the people’s social revolution will eventually win.


Financial collapses always accompany a move from warm to cold climate. You can also find this attribute on a much smaller scale. For example, 1929 was a very cold year. My blog post entitled “Don’t Like the Climate, Wait a Cycle!” follows the temperature and the performance of the DOW over the past 100 years, so you can see how the fluctuating temperature helps predict the movement of the market. What’s actually happening is much more complex that a simple “cause and effect” link, but nonetheless, the correlation certainly exists.


Social mood turns negative every 172 years and leads to a major revolution.

Ever wonder why the entire world seems to get angry all at the same time? The mood of the masses change in a cyclical manner. This is why revolutions are world-wide. It’s also why economic slumps are world-wide. You can see this phenomenon occur again and again all through history. We’re influenced by electromagnetic waves from the the planets and Sun—the influence has been scientifically proven, although we are in our infancy in understanding the specifics. You can find out more in my blog post and video, “Puppets on a String?” I also provide a short explanation on my Social Mood page on the “Master the Edge” site.


You can see the effect of periods of colder climate on our health in the chart below:


The red arrows mark the temperature highs. They happen approximately every 1030 years and then it turns colder for several hundred years. There are smaller spikes at regular periods in between the major highs.

However, whenever there’s a downturn in the temperature, human health suffers. There isn’t necessarily a cause and effect link between climate and health. But there is between mood and health. When people are fearful or suffer from depression, their health deteriorates.

These downturns also turn turn human mood negative. Civilizations tend to crumble and the economy takes a big dive. You can see my blog post on this subject here.


Personal safety is going to become a critical issue going forward. When people go hungry en masse, violence and anarchy break out. Large cities are going to be especially hit hard as transportation systems break down and even fresh water becomes scarce. My upcoming free webinar, entitled “Navigating the Crash” is going to address some of these issues and how to prepare for these very difficult times worldwide.

You can see the transition in the area of food with a story this weekend on NBC that featured a group helping homeowners to set up mico farms on their front lawns. Here’s a similar article in the Huffington Post. The signs of the transition we’re going through are everywhere. There was also news item this weekend on the  return of doctors doing house calls. Ah, the power of cycles!

Our Monetary System

This revolution is about our monetary system. It’s a continuation of the historical fight between the growing power of moneylenders versus the financial domination of the common man. You can trace if back to Jesus upsetting the moneylenders in the Temple. His lost his life, as a result.

We have a similar class struggle today. Every major nation is now beholden to the private banking cartel of Europe (and the Federal Reserve in the US). It’s a contract with the devil.

These private banks create money from nothing and then charge compounding interest to countries to use that money. This is ridiculous, of course, because most of these countries can (and have done do before) create their own money at no interest, lend it to their population at low interest, and use that interest to pay for all government services and virtually wipe out the need for taxes.

This is the system that was in effect in Canada before 1974, Australia before 1991, and in the US before 1913. The tax system we have today was developed because of the need to fund these exorbitant and totally unnecessary interest charges. Now all the major G7 nations are bankrupt, the money being owed to these private bankers. I expect to see the growth of public banks again after the coming financial crash, as happening in the Great Depression. History repeats.

Traits of the Transition

Here are some of the changes you can expect as we move from the warm dry climate of the late 20th century through the current wet-cool short cusp to the cooler dryer climate of the next several hundred years (from the research of Dr. Ralph H. Wheeler):

General traits of a cold-dry period: Anarchism, financial depression, inadequate government, weak leaders, civil wars rather than international wars, mass migration, pandemics, and class revolution.

Below are some contrasting traits:

Warm Dry Period Left Behind Cold Wet (later dry) Period We’re Entering
dictatorships (too much gov’t) democratization (insufficient gov’t)
imperialism (rising national spirit) cosmopolitanism (falling national spirit)
expansion/annexation migrations/less organized invasions
world wars (strong vs. strong) civil wars (strong against weak)
national fascism, totalitarianism anarchy, freedom of individual
federal rights individual rights
long reigns, good rulers (early warm) short reigns, poor rulers
growth of cities move from city to country
rising prices (inflation) falling prices (deflation)
increase in luxuries decrease in luxuries
less prostitution (early warm) increase in prostitution, abnormal sexual behavior
Golden Age (early warm) Dark Age
increase in religious regulation personal orthodoxy
neglect of grammar attention to grammar, lexicographers
abstract harmony and melody simple melody, folks songs
fashion:  simple, plain, dignified turns complex, ornate, elaborate
high birth rate to low birth rate (late warm) low birth rate
learning by discovery learning by drill
idealism (philosophy) hedonism
manufactory expansion agricultural expansion
polite comedy in literature vulgar comedy
culture: aristocratic, refined, profound (early warm) move to plebian, vulgar, superficial
art: emphasis on abstract form and line complexity, ornateness, stiff, crude

The Market

The Ending Diagonal is No More

In the past week, the ending diagonal started to become doubtful due to the wave structure. There was a wave just before the large triangle which ended up being a small ending diagonal (of the third wave of the larger third wave). This wave caused a moderate amount of concern for the count. When we ultimately went to a new high above 2277 in ES, this caused a re-think of the count and this weekend, some revisions to the concept of an ending diagonal, but not necessarily right across the board. It remains to be seen for example, whether it also affects the NYSE, which I’m still counting as an ending diagonal, right or wrong.

Based on relabelling as a 5 wave move in ES wave (3), I’m still projecting a final top to our five hundred year set of Supercycle waves sometime in the early part of this year. I’ve given up on being specific, as these waves have been moving very slowly. Ultimately, Mr. Elliott’s waves will forecast the end and give us adequate warning of the turn.

Projections For Current Rally

Above is the daily chart of ES. The trendlines are gone, as the structure counts best as a simple wave 3.

There are no changes in the prognosis. The dismissal of the ending diagonal pattern simply means that wave 4 down will seek its own bottom and is not confined by the requirements of an ending diagonal. It is therefore likely to retrace 38% of the C wave at its own pace (to about 2202). This new count also aligns ES with the wave structure in the DOW, and it’s always a good thing when the structure is similar across the major indices. Having the DOW that out of sync with the SPX has been pointing to an issue with the SPX count.

If wave 4 comes down into the area of the first wave, then we’ll have the ending diagonal, but only if the trendlines don’t diverge. If they do, something else is happening.

The 4th wave will come down in three waves. After we finish the A and B waves, we should be able to project an end to the C wave of the 4th wave. Once we finish the fourth wave , we’ll get a final blow-off wave for the month of February, with a potential top that month or into very early March. We may very well see the ending diagonal as the 5th wave.

Here are the path predictions going forward:

  • Wave 4 will come down in 3 waves with any of the corrective patterns possibly in play.
  • Wave 5 is likely to be an ending diagonal. In any event, it will be in 5 waves (not motive).

Summary: We are completing the third wave of the C wave (likely topping Monday, Jan. 30, as there was a turn date last Friday), before dropping into a fourth wave. After completing the fourth wave, we’ll have one more wave to go, which is likely to be an ending diagonal as a fifth wave. The long awaited bear market is getting closer.


Sign up for: The Chart Show

Thursday, February 2 at 2:00 pm EST (US market time)


The Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis in real time for the US market, gold, silver, oil, major USD currency pairs, and more. You won’t find a more accurate or comprehensive market prediction anywhere for this price.

Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. You’ll also get Andy Pancholi turn dates for the balance of the current month. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.

All registrants will receive the video playback of the webinar, so even if you miss it, you’ll be sent the full video replay within about an hour of its conclusion. For more information and to sign up, click here.

{ 117 comments… add one }
  • joe January 29, 2017, 5:25 pm

    hi peter
    sorry about the tech issues
    thank you for the update
    PS , refreshers are always good to see

    • Peter Temple January 29, 2017, 5:47 pm

      Windows! I had to wipe everything clean and rebuild Windows 7 from scratch for 4 monitors and it ain’t easy, cause you have to load in all the updates over the years and find all the conflicts. In any event, I now have a new computer sitting here standing by, which I might replace tonight (or tomorrow) and that will give me a really good backup system … just in case.

      • verne January 31, 2017, 10:44 am

        Yikes! I hope you had critical files backed up somewhere.
        Great call on the SPX top Peter. A lot of folk were expecting another wave up to complete the third. The size of the current decline argues for a larger degree fourth wave underway per your count. Gold seems to have completed its correction early, unless it is tracing out a more complex second wave correction.

        • Peter Temple January 31, 2017, 11:07 am

          Thanks. Well I was also expecting another little wave up for SPX at the top, but once we came down below the previous 4th, that was likely not in the cards. Gold has come down in 3 waves so far, so I’d be cautious about jumping in yet. Unsure what’s in its devious mind right at the moment.

          I don’t keep any other files on my trading computers, so there’s really nothing to back up other than past market data, which I don’t really use, anyway. That’s one small joy associated with this business. Virtually everything is downloaded. Of course, there are downsides to that as well. 🙂

    • Peter Temple January 29, 2017, 5:49 pm

      I now have 4 macs and 4 pcs … and looking for a simpler world … an island with a soccer ball sounds about right at the moment … lol

  • joe January 29, 2017, 5:40 pm

    a 12.4 month year
    the info

  • Vincent January 29, 2017, 6:02 pm


    Great work as always.
    Just checking my count on S&P….?

    Could the suggested w4 be of minor 4 instead of minute w4.
    If it is one degree larger than it will fall into w1 area of minor w1 which started on February 11 .


    • Peter Temple January 29, 2017, 6:08 pm

      My count is that these are corrective waves up, so this has to be 4 of C. Otherwise, my count is totally out to lunch and currencies tell me it’s not. Everything is moving in tandem.

  • joe January 29, 2017, 6:32 pm

    hi peter
    as i start my big quest to computerization
    in the back of my mind i realize im going to
    have to deal with what your dealing with now .
    i imagine its a nightmare at times
    glad to see you have a Handle on it

  • andré January 30, 2017, 12:37 am

    If there comes a w5 2/23 will be the date. 2/22 we have the sun o[[osite the node and the 717 gives a high. In that case 1/30 low, 2/1 high, 2/7 low, 2/14 high, 2/15 low and 2/23 high.

    No trading advise; just for entertainment

    • Ed January 30, 2017, 6:54 am


      In your humble opinion…Is the high 2/1 followed by the high on 2/14 being lower than 2/1 and would the 2/23 high be lower than 2/14 (stair stepping down)…

      Would the low 2/7 be lower than be lower than 1/30 followed by the 2/15 low being lower than the 2/7 low? Again the stair stepping idea! I am more a visual guy! Maybe this is not knowable from you work!


      • andré January 30, 2017, 7:01 am


        My work is mostly on timing. I think 2/1 is a major high but noise could create a false top 2/23. Any case; 2/22-23 should be the final wave up.

        2/7 will be lower than 1/30 as everything I see is down.

  • Alex January 30, 2017, 10:26 am

    Peter I only have 1 mac! Well now I know why you’re a better trader than I am (lol).

    • Peter Temple January 30, 2017, 10:41 am

      Well, I don’t know about the better trader thing, haha. My main system is two PCs running six screens. I don’t use the Macs for trading, more the website, writing, video, webinars, etc.

      It’s the number of screens that makes the difference in staying on top of the market. I have almost twenty charts open at the same time, so I can see what everything is doing. It’s particularly helpful in this crazy, dangerous market.

  • Bill January 30, 2017, 11:26 am

    Hi Valley,

    Haven’t seen any updates from you…


    • purvez January 30, 2017, 1:00 pm


      What Bill said….times x2. (I think that equals 4). LOL.

      Thx in advance.


      • Valley January 30, 2017, 2:03 pm

        The Good: I sold my long position small gain.
        The Bad: PALS seems useless due to first 100 days of the Donald.
        The Ugly: I am still believe we see a 15% gain this year when he changes his tune when the fat lady sings on his antagonistic rhetoric.

  • John January 30, 2017, 1:01 pm

    Hai Nicola,

    I got news from Raj his top date was Jan 27, it was one day earlier,now he expects the dominant cycle will bring us down to xxx date after that another rally to the last highs…

    My last comments….last week.

    My best guess the top was yesterday (Raj) if I understand him correctly.
    So what will be his bottom date is the next interesting point..


    • rotrot January 30, 2017, 1:06 pm
    • nicola2910 January 31, 2017, 6:14 am

      Was about to write you yesterday, You beat me to it, We both had very close top dates . i will try to figure out xxx once more, give me a few days, I have been
      busy with family. Thanks for helping …nicola2910 ….nick

      • John January 31, 2017, 9:09 am

        Thanks Nick,

        I have got Feb 23/25 as important dates…

        • nicola2910 January 31, 2017, 3:22 pm

          Thanks 02/ 23/25 looks good .,, also on big turn Date [trend turn ] of Raj is April 3rd +/- a few days that is the xxx date i believe. If you count it,, let me know please. I know that site where he posts ….Nick

  • joe January 30, 2017, 1:56 pm

    this drop is a bit to far down for me to call it a wave 4
    based on the daily chart from the Jan 19th low .
    the 19990 level on the cash Dow is the pivot able level
    to keep an eye on .
    that is not based on anything Fibonacci wise or wave count wise .
    the wave structure as i see it from the jan 19th low is only 3 waves
    and this really does not have the right look to be considered a wave 4
    as i see it .
    what i must now consider is that the jan 19th lows will be broken
    on a further move to the downside wince the move up from the
    jan 19th lows was only a 3 wave move.
    the initial data based on today now is making the case that
    we can see lows in the month of march .
    the other side of this is harder to justify . ( no valid bullish set up at the moment )
    bottom line :
    we have broken below the DEC highs and in doing so i must allow for
    a test of the December lows .
    based on all of it . ill label today’s drop as wave A and until i see the actual
    wave B ill leave the labeling off the chart and will label the chart
    after the fact .

  • Jody January 30, 2017, 3:58 pm

    idk.. looks like a big 3 wave structure in my opinion now.. if the move off the March 09 lows has been a big D wave and all the waves must be in 3 waves it would be reasonable to see this last leg as…

    1810 to 2111 (A) 301pts

    2111 to 1991 (B) 120 pts

    1991 to 2300 (C) 309pts

    Taking the Aug 2016 high 2193 – and the Oct 2016 lows 2083 drawing those trend lines up looks like a rising wedge that is getting ready to BOOM!

    One thing for certain below 2083.79 hello Mr. Bear Market.

  • Andy January 30, 2017, 6:35 pm

    Thanks for the excellent update Peter!

  • Vern January 30, 2017, 7:06 pm

    Glad to have your insight shared online Peter, especially navigating this transitional time. In your “Traits of the Transition” word chart, what would examples of agricultural expansion look like? As that is stated to be on the increase going forward in a cool-dry environment. My experience has been that many (livestock) ag industries outside of the quota system could be argued at being already in a over production state. World seems to be a wash in animal protein currently (for the privileged). Hard to expand crop production drastically with the limits being stretched already / rainforest being depleted etc.


    • Peter Temple January 30, 2017, 9:58 pm

      Hi Vern,
      That line in two words is likely misleading. On the downside of this cycle, there’s a dramatic move from urban areas to rural areas. Urban areas tend to break down and the move is towards food and water—the basics of life. So we’re not going to see an expansion of agriculture itself, as during the depression, for example, farmers couldn’t get produce to market and there was little money to pay for it.

      There will also be a shift from fast-food and processed foods to more natural foods. However, the economics will should not result in a rise in production overall. The rise in bankruptcies and poverty suggests the opposite and this has been the case throughout history. So compared to manufacturing and business, agriculture should rise in terms of its importance to society during the cold-wet period, which is the first part of this colder period we’re moving into.

      I may not have explained this all that well. I’m paraphrasing somewhat from the work of Dr. Wheeler.

  • Jody January 31, 2017, 9:15 am

    Dec 13th 2016 High connect trend line to Jan 26th 2017 High
    Dec 30th 2016 Low connect trend line to Jan 23rd 2017 Low
    Looks good to break today possibly.
    Yea Buddy;)

  • purvez January 31, 2017, 1:03 pm

    Let’s make my position clear to start with:

    I’m a ‘die hard’ Elliottician. So ‘any other’ waves don’t ‘count’ with me…..but that doesn’t mean I haven’t learnt about ‘other’ waves.

    So in ‘that’ vein I am presenting you a DJIA chart which ‘may’ be one way of interpreting the current market.

    Good Luck to ALL.

    • purvez January 31, 2017, 1:06 pm

      P.S. Please don’t ask me how the above ‘wave’ fits into an Elliott count.

      Whilst the markets remain in these ‘lofty’ positions I think ‘any wave counting’ is DUBIOUS (imho).

      Reality can strike at ‘any time’ and turn everything sour.

  • andré February 1, 2017, 1:40 am
    • Verne February 3, 2017, 6:53 pm

      I do like Harry but he had been WAY early in his call for a market top, as early as 2012!! He then was sure a megaphone pattern would complete at DJ 17,000. I am surprised he is still giving dates as he recently did quite a ma culpa over previous incorrect calls. At least now he is giving himself a three year leeway!

  • andré February 1, 2017, 1:45 am

    The 1929 high came 2158 degrees after the pisces new moon. In 2017 that would be 8/21.

    The 2000 high and the 2009 low give spiral harmony 8/19-20.

    8/21 is also the midpoint of the lunar year. Remember midpoints a very vibrational.

    Think this could be a very special day.

    • rotrot February 1, 2017, 2:45 am

      August 21, 2017…A Total Solar Eclipse is Coming to the United States!

      • rotrot February 1, 2017, 2:54 am

        “The Great American Eclipse (a total eclipse of the Sun) is coming on August 21, 2017. It will affect America’s chart as well as Donald Trump’s. It will likely be negative in both cases. But it’s even worse for Melania Trump (in her astrological chart). This will be a date to watch.”
        Peter Temple – January 2, 2017

      • Kent February 1, 2017, 7:45 am

        Per Steve Peutz, the rule is the panic phase tends to start at the full moon within 2 weeks of the solar eclipse. More specifically, a full moon that is more potent is at the lunar eclipse. The bigger rule is that it hardly ever works. There are usually 2 pairs of lunar/solar eclipses every year. This year the pairs are Feb 10M/Feb 26S and Aug 7L/Aug 26S

    • Mike Caruana February 1, 2017, 4:44 am

      Andre, have you looked at Saturn return cycles which occur every 28-29 years?

      10/29/1929 (Black Tuesday): Saturn 26° Sagittarius.
      10/19/1987 (Black Monday): Saturn 17° Sagittarius.

      All of 2017 Saturn transits Sagittarius. We go between 21° and 27° from the beginning of the year until May 8, then move retrograde to 21° until Sept 25, then head out on Dec 21.

      Since it didn’t crash twice in the same spot, we can’t pinpoint it, but 26° will occur on Feb 18, May8, and Nov 16. We will not hit 17° (the 1987 spot) for another 29 years. Since the market likes to crash in October, we would be between 22° and 24°, close enough to 26.

      August highs before all off this highly possible. The one piece of data I’m missing — 1958-1959. Saturn in Sagittarius then as well & don’t know if anything significant happened. Perhaps it skips one cycle, who knows.

      • andré February 1, 2017, 5:15 am


        Very interesting. Saturn station direct also relevant (8/25). Also timed the 1929 and 1987 highs.

        • Mike Caruana February 2, 2017, 6:08 pm

          Andre, how did you come up with the 8/25 date? I must be missing something. I have 5/8 & 9/25 for 2017.

          • Mike Caruana February 3, 2017, 5:05 am

            I think I see what I missed. It is 8/25 not 9/25 and the first flip is also wrong. It goes retro on Apr 7, not May 8.

            The correct movement:
            21° in Jan. 27° 47′ April 5-7, then retro to 21° ~11′ on 8/25, then direct until it exists.

      • Valley February 2, 2017, 11:40 am

        Nice research. Saturn in Sag seems to be very bullish and I have commented many times on the possibility of a mania in stocks this year due to its effect. Several manias in history (South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania, 1927 to 1929 US Market Mania) were approximate to Saturn in Sag.

        • Valley February 2, 2017, 11:43 am

          Chinese Zodiac 2017 to 2019 is Rooster, Dog, Pig sequence which repeats every 12 years and has historically been very bullish, e.g., ’05 to ’07, ’93 to ’95, ’81 to ’83, ’69 to ’71, ’57 to ’59, ’45 to ’47, ’33 to ’35, ’21 to ’23.

          • Valley February 2, 2017, 12:13 pm

            The animals correspond to Jupiter zodiacal position with Pig being Jupiter in Scorpio.

  • VERNE CARTY February 1, 2017, 9:52 am

    Interesting how many EW analysts were quite convinced yesterday’s lows marked the end of the current correction with almost universal calls or new highs or at the very least a re-test of the old. It did seem to be altogether too brief for even a smaller degree fourth….any thoughts on today’s price action so far?

    • Peter Temple February 1, 2017, 10:06 am

      REALLY? After an A wave only, they think it’s going to new highs? So this is why I don’t look at other people’s charts. There are way too many pretenders out there. The target right now is 2224 in ES, although granted, it could only go to 2247.

      This is wave 4. I’ve been expecting for quite a while, as you know.

      • VERNE CARTY February 1, 2017, 10:50 am

        Indeed. Based on your count which I first saw several weeks ago I was very reluctant to make any long trades and boy am I glad I took a pass. Now it seems everyone is still in a BTD frenzy and looking at every decline as an opportunity to pile in, although with all the bullish sentiment one has to wonder how many buyers are still out there. I had always expected that Mr Market was not going to give the bulls a free ride without bucking a few of them off before the final blow off top. I think you are right about a re-visit to the 2200.00 area. Looking forward to the chart show tomorrow and your current road map!

      • ted February 1, 2017, 12:52 pm

        Is the 200 day moving average to low to be a target? I see your two target based on Fib ratios of 1.618 and 2.618. i am getting around 2160 on the spx for the 4.236 fib which is about the 200 day.

        • verne February 1, 2017, 7:23 pm

          It will be interesting to see if the banksters let the decline get as low as the 200 dma. It is clear they have been fighting even the most recent declines as evidenced by the long lower wicks. The extremity of current optimism suggests that this move down could be deeper than many expect nonetheless. I fully expect Mr Market to buck off quite a few eager bull riders before the final manic blow-off fifth wave up…and to do that the move down has to serious sharp, and sudden imo…not the kind of pussyfooting we have been seeing the last several weeks..

  • Jody February 1, 2017, 10:30 am

    When SPX 2268 breaks.. Watch out!

    • VERNE CARTY February 1, 2017, 10:53 am

      Yep! A decline below 2267.21 will probably signal the start of the C leg of what should be an ABC zig zag of a fourth wave…

      • Jody February 2, 2017, 11:34 am

        I think we have seen the top.

        • Verne February 3, 2017, 7:06 pm

          Not yet…not quite yet…but getting close…!

  • Joe February 2, 2017, 1:13 am

    there is no true puetz cycle this year
    under the puetz window you need the solar eclipse first
    and the lunar eclipse second . doesnt mean the lunar eclipse
    does not need the market down though it just means we do not
    have the puetz window set up .
    my model is now giving lower projections and i never take the second
    projection on face value yet as it stands the 19356 target is now projecting
    19107 . based on that i took a few Fibonacci retracements from several spots
    starting at the jan 20 2016 low to the recent highs
    jan 20 2016 to the jan 26 2017 high .236 retrace = 19022.27
    june 27 2016 to the jan 26 2017 high .382 retrace = 18955.7
    nov 4 2016 to the jan 26 2017 high .50 retrace = 19004.57
    averaging the 3 levels =18994.18
    lets not forget the panic of 1907 which was 55 * 2 or 110 years ago
    and there is a few similarities to today .
    andre , august should become an important time frame yet so
    should the end of june .
    for now though im watching feb 3rd which is Friday.
    a choppy flat to up market into feb 15th is possible
    yet if we are heading lower into march i would expect
    the bounce to stay fairly flat relative to today’s close .
    the low on feb 3rd if it is a low is a secondary cycle low
    based on the mars Uranus cycle . its an important
    cycle to keep an eye on .
    next week should we should see some sort of bounce
    yet the 19990 level is still key .
    that said the 19900 level is beginning to become the close only

  • andré February 2, 2017, 9:50 am

    Next week down – and pretty hard.

    • Valley February 2, 2017, 12:16 pm

      Next week up: full moon next Friday price magnet, moon crossed ecliptic in North hemisphere next 13 days price bullish, moon post apogee next two weeks bullish, earnings have been good, Fed isn’t raising rates yet.

      • purvez February 2, 2017, 1:07 pm

        OMG!! This is looking like the ‘Battle of the Titans’!! 🙂 🙂

        OK Valley below DJIA 20K my ‘pounding in the head’ is not strong enough to stop me from going ‘long’. However if the DJIA goes above 20K then I am bailing out!!

        Andre on the ‘other’ side I continue to have my teeny tiny ‘scout’ short positions. Funnily enough since I changed ‘trading strategy’ (sounds like I know something, doesn’t it?) it’s been going my way although I’m not making any serious money on it.

        Thanks to BOTH of you for your generous input…like Peter.

        The ‘market gods’ will decide!!….as always.

        • Valley February 2, 2017, 1:12 pm

          Hey, I am still expecting a rather sizable sell off before Venus conjunction on 3/16, I just think based on lunar trifecta it will be in mid February.

        • purvez February 2, 2017, 1:22 pm

          OK here is how I see this ‘conflict’ resolving. Remember my chart from earlier on, about the ‘head & shoulders’ stuff: Here’s the link :

          So my ‘suggestion’ is that andre will be right at the ‘beginning’, maybe even a bit early….like tomorrow for the down section and perhaps into early part of next week..

          Then Valley will ‘take over’ and do the ‘right shoulder’.

          I DO HOPE it works out like that because that’s the ‘trading strategy’ I’m trying to follow.

          …..It’s really hard when you have to ‘let go’ of what your comfort blanket is. (mine is EW) and branch out into the ‘big wide world’.

          • Valley February 2, 2017, 1:52 pm

            This makes sense!

  • Joe February 2, 2017, 1:51 pm

    for sake of argument lets say your correct .
    after the right shoulder and the down portion
    then what happens afterwords ?
    how far would the bounce from the bottom go ?

    • purvez February 2, 2017, 2:25 pm

      Joe, please may I take a ‘rain check’ on this question and come back to you tomorrow?

      It’s past my ‘happy hour’ here in the UK so no sensible comments from me can be expected.

  • Joe February 2, 2017, 2:55 pm

    I would prefer that tomorrow the market gaps down
    and we see the cash dow test the 19700 level yet
    my gut says we are in a more complex B wave .
    the simple version still labels this as wave A down.
    the more complex wave counts this as a B wave with in
    A wave down .
    key support now being lowered to the 19950 area .
    yet for trading purposes im leaving the 19990 level
    on the cash dow as my line in the sand on my short term
    bearish outlook . my intent is to move this lower towards
    the 19900 area yet i think it is to soon to do that .
    for Friday ill watch the 19772-19745 levels if seen
    and look to exit my bearish stance .
    Bottom line :
    I’m intending to be out of bearish positions Friday
    and just going to adopt a neutral bias for the next few
    weeks if not the rest of the month .
    what i want to see develop is some extreme oversold
    readings which are going to take some time yet as it is
    right now today i am seeing some very mild oversold readings
    which still leaves me with a longer term bullish bias once
    this decline completes .
    Peters wave count is now making more and more sense to me
    from both a timing and wave count point of view .
    that said, come tomorrow im neatral this market .
    the 19990 level still matters and so will the 19900 level come next week.
    i see no bullish set ups despite all of this .

  • Joe February 2, 2017, 2:59 pm

    rain checks always welcome 🙂
    i was just picking your brain is all
    and im in no rush .

  • Taz February 2, 2017, 4:25 pm

    Hi everyone, my first post here. I noted it was mentioned in the prior thread there is no Puetz window this year but that is not the case. While most people assume the lunar eclipse must be placed after the solar eclipse, this is just the most common variation on a theme. In 1929, the lunar eclipse took place before the solar eclipse. So the coming eclipses do qualify, and are made more relevant given quite a few markets topped around the new moon Jan 28 – one cycle away from the solar eclipse.

  • andré February 3, 2017, 1:15 am

    I think something significant changes this week; something long term. But 2/4 we have the lunar quarter; so we have to wait a little longer.

    First leg down into may 2017. 8/21 a big event is scheduled that will cause real panic.

    But the bull is dead.

    You don’t have to agree; this is just what I see. (And what do I know; right?)

    • Ed February 3, 2017, 3:32 am

      Thanks for you comments and insights!

      Any views on whether the 33.5 year cycle that mentioned to you that I had read about is actually ending?

      I have no expertise when it comes to cycles but I would suspect that the turns might get drawn out a bit in your very long cycles.

    • Vincent February 3, 2017, 6:16 am

      Thank you for your good post as always.
      You have mentioned many times about bottoming in MAY.

      Is it related to NNode in Leo ?


  • purvez February 3, 2017, 2:52 am

    Joe, re: your question from yesterday:

    The answer, you won’t be surprised to hear, is that it depends on how far down it goes after the right shoulder. If the DJIA stops around 19000 then that will count as Peter’s wave 4 and we’ll see new ATH.

    If it drops a lot below 19000 then I think it will go all the way below the Feb’16 lows and revive my long suffering 4th wave count at a much higher degree. That one will throw everyone because everyone will be expecting the bull to be dead. However we will then have our ‘blow off’ top 5th wave.

    ….but we are getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s get the drop to the neckline, then the right shoulder out of the way first.

  • Ed February 3, 2017, 3:16 am


    Do you have an opinion on the “debt ceiling” issue coming up in March? I think it will be very contentious and will give insight into Trumps’s success. It is in my opinion going to disturb the markets. Your thoughts would be appreciated!

  • purvez February 3, 2017, 4:23 am
  • purvez February 3, 2017, 4:35 am

    I wonder if the DJIA is forming a triangle from the Jan end lows as follows?

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:18 am

    the first time i witnessed the movement of people
    out of California and up the west coast i was trying to
    buy a house in a frenzied realestate market in redmond washington
    , the 2nd time i saw it beginning in 2001 and i got out in mid 2005
    and now as i wait to see it happen again i find the reason why
    it could come about and if it happens in the year 2018 id say
    3 is a charm .
    here is why i think California could collapse , and to think people want
    to consider leaving the usa ? i wish
    in that link you will see calpers has lowered its expected return
    yet based on other research that lowered expected return is a lie.
    the number is closer to 5.5 % and not the 7-71/2 quoted in the article.
    real estate mini boom up the west coast or not . California has money issues

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:26 am

    May 9, 1929 Solar Total
    South/East Asia, Much of Australia, East in Africa, Pacific, Indian Ocean
    May 23, 1929 Lunar Penumbral
    South/East Asia, Australia, East in Africa, Much of North America, South/West South America, Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Antarctica
    Nov 1, 1929 Solar Annular
    South/West Europe, South/West Asia, Africa, South/East North America, Atlantic, Indian Ocean
    Nov 16 / Nov 17, 1929 Lunar Penumbral
    Europe, Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Arctic, Antarctica

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:36 am

    i posted the eclipses for 1929 for you to think through
    your posts are always appreciated and while we may have
    different views your timing is pretty incredible
    i was just picking your brain yet my personal view is
    on the same thought process as yours yet my thought
    is we have yet to form the left side of the neckline .
    ill be looking for the 4, 5, 1, 2 head and shoulders pattern
    down the road a few months is all .
    19896 on the dow futures is my tell tale that something is amiss
    the jan 20 cycle low came a day early
    the feb 3 date may or may not become a day early
    if not then we don’t go above 19896 in the futures
    yet we get close , 19879 near the open on the dow futures
    would need to be rejected fairly hard .
    gap up open then down all day .
    if that doesn’t work then the move down can be considered a wave
    2 of sorts and dow goes back to new all time highs next week.
    andre i agree with you , something is brewing .
    i still prefer the mid to late march period as the starting point
    of a launch higher , from what level ill wait and see.

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:41 am

    since you mentioned the new moon one cycle away
    ill touch on it .
    in a typical cycle i have noted the the market tended to
    go lower roughly 20-25 trade days before the solar eclipse
    and the market would go lower into the solar eclipse.
    that is still possible .
    the comparison to 1929 though i wont agree on yet
    for other reasons .

  • Vetri February 3, 2017, 5:47 am

    Hi Andre,
    Can you say that Wave 3 is done and that Wave 4 has started for target 2200? If so would you see Wave 4 completing during Feb itself?

    • andré February 3, 2017, 8:27 am


      I don’t give price levels; just timing. This weekend I’ll post a new analysis. W3 is over. Only question remaining is when the w5 high will come. I see several possibilities. Will share them this weekend.

      But 2/1 was a very significant date.

      • Verne February 3, 2017, 10:31 am

        What do you think of today’s bounce?

        • andré February 3, 2017, 11:49 am

          2/5-2/6 is another strong date. And big moves Always come after a lunar square. So the market is consolidating between 2 strong dates and next week we can dive.

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:48 am

    mercury retrograde 1929
    JAN 29, 1929 | 05:39 AM | 24AQ23 | ME SR |
    | FEB 19, 1929 | 01:55 PM | 08AQ54 | ME SD |
    | MAY 28, 1929 | 09:18 AM | 22GE27 | ME SR |
    | JUN 21, 1929 | 08:16 AM | 13GE52 | ME SD |
    | SEP 25, 1929 | 06:20 PM | 23LI22 | ME SR |
    | OCT 17, 1929 | 05:06 AM | 08LI02 | ME SD

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:54 am

    Note :
    Jan 19th was 11 days later ( 10 days after was my thought at the time )
    January 1st 2017 – January 8th 2017 in Capricorn

    April 9th 2017 – May 3rd 2017 in Aries, then Taurus

    August 12th 2017 – September 5th 2017 in Leo, then Virgo

    December 2nd 2017 – December 22nd 2017 in Sagittarius then Capricorn

  • joe February 3, 2017, 5:54 am

    aug 21 date fits

  • LizH February 3, 2017, 9:39 am

    Is /ES supposed to retest 2299 high (hit pre-market 1/26) during regular trading hours?

  • rotrot February 3, 2017, 9:44 am

    gaps from the January 30 opening selloff were filled this morning…

    • rotrot February 3, 2017, 11:33 am

      SPX gap filled this morning…INDU gap has not filled as of this date/time…

      • verne February 4, 2017, 5:41 am

        I think that is important. Unless the gap from Friday’s open is filled immediately on Monday I think it would weaken the case that wave three is done and wave four down has begun.

      • rotrot February 4, 2017, 5:48 am

        INDU gap from the January 30 opening selloff was filled yesterday afternoon…on Monday SPX should close in the red…

  • purvez February 3, 2017, 9:54 am

    Given today’s action in the DJIA I now have the following count:

    Given the over 76.4% retracement of ‘2 or B’ I am inclined to think it is the former rather than the latter…..but that may just be wishful thinking. Of course anything above the ATH means my count was also ‘out to lunch’.

    • verne February 4, 2017, 5:22 am

      If it is a flat correction the b wave should be at least 90% of a

      • purvez February 4, 2017, 11:53 am

        Yes…I see where you are coming from. A zig zag wouldn’t be ‘this deep’ and the flat would be deeper…..hence its a 2!! YAAAAY!!

        I do like confirmation of my ‘trading bias’!! LOL. Thanks verne.

        • Verne February 4, 2017, 5:04 pm

          Most welcome!

  • joe February 3, 2017, 11:46 am

    yesterday was the 4th 11 trade day low in a row
    dec 14 low
    dec 30 low
    dec 18 low ( 1 day off the 19th low )
    yesterday a secondary low feb 2
    mars uranus cycle had a jan 20th which was 1 day early
    and yesterday a secondary low and 1 day early .
    mars uranus cycle is now behind us
    next is venus mercury sun . they dont all hit together
    yet that is the next bull cycle to hit , it begins march 2
    yet it runs into late march .
    its to soon to label this
    the stocks i saw make new highs yesterday are not
    making new highs today .
    basic materials for one are selling off today across the board
    im watching .
    sox made a new high today as well as yesterday and this index is now
    above its .618 retrace of the 2000 to 2009 bear market.
    banks look the storngest
    semis despite the new highs not very strong
    drugs looking weak
    overall not that strong of a day
    3.84 to 1 on advance decline line . tells me to sit today out
    and let this market run
    im long by default with individual stocks and see
    nothing at the moment to give me a reason to add to
    my bullish positions .
    from what im looking at the dow should be about 1/2 a % higher then it is .
    that implies an up 270 day and not up 170 .
    if the $nya breaks below todays low ( it gapped up ) ill go back
    to the short side .
    today though im turning computer off
    Have a good weekend everyone 🙂


  • Peter Temple February 3, 2017, 12:28 pm
    • Verne February 3, 2017, 12:38 pm

      I have been reading about the trail of utter destruction they have blazed in Haiti and it is truly heart-breaking. I am from the BVI and this is an international criminal organization pure and simple!
      By the way Peter, any change in your thinking based on the run-up in SPX today?

  • Joe February 3, 2017, 2:20 pm

    Thanks for the article peter .
    it reminded me of what i had read about calpers which
    is a different subject yet it shows we have stupid people
    who are in control of things they should not be and
    it doesn’t seem to matter about right or wrong . its all about
    we are going to do this because we decided we would and there is
    no way we will ever admit we have made a mistake .
    so they push through an agenda over false pretenses

  • andré February 4, 2017, 2:24 am

    There is only one tidal force, created by sun and moon. And the tides respond. So one would expect the tides to turn in sync. But this is not the case. Last week the high tides gave extremes Monday and Wednesday and the low tides Thursday and Friday. So the tidal turn took all week. That’s the main reason markets were flat last week.

    The period it takes for the tides to turn I call the tidal pivot range.

    Next week is different. The tidal pivot range is just 2 days; everything turns Monday and Tuesday with 3 tides on Tuesday. This means the tidal force is focussed and we should expect a more severe turn.

    2/22 is a very strong date as Gc Saturn is 240 degrees on the 1792 position. This is also a lunar return. This shows Saturn is really a moon cycle. To be exact; 1 saturn cycle is 361,8 lunations.

    2/10 is a crash angle date on the 1792-1929 angle. 2/14 a lunar return so 2/13 likely the turndate. 2/10 the lunar eclipse. This should give a high but I expect the market to make one more inversion, use 13 as low and test 2/22. The the first low will be 3/3 as this is 1440 degrees on the major 11/4 low.

    Delta gives a high 2/6. Range squaring out gives 2/4-5. Next week a w3 like wave down. 2/7 is a 360 day cycle on 1792. 2/11 + 360 is 2/6. So 2/6-7 the turn, as the tides already told us.

    Maybe tomorrow some more.

    • Ed February 4, 2017, 5:18 am

      Thanks Andre’ for the update! Just like last week…I am seeking some clarity.

      On Monday and Tuesday the “tides” should cause a turn “down” in the stock markets! For your benefit, “Not trading advice and No guarantees.”

      My confusion comes when you mention that Friday, 2/10 is a “crash date.” Should I take away the idea that there is perhaps (no guarantees) more downside to the turn that could possibly occur on Monday and Tuesday, 2/6 and 2/7? So, basically all week could show pressure to the downside, right?

      Then you say 2/13 likely a turndate…So, just trying understand…Markets turndate down this Monday and Tuesday….then bounce back to the upside the following Monday, 2/13.

      The market could then perhaps rally into that 2/22 high which you have mentioned several times 2/23 could be a retest of the highs seen previously.

      Then be looking for a 3/3 (March 3rd) low. Then much later in the year expect a low 11/4 (November 4th).

      In summary, the market could sell off next week and then “retrace that down move” before something more meaningful on the downside later this year much like Peter is thinking!

      Now I am confused! Ha

      • andré February 4, 2017, 5:31 am

        One more time.

        This weekend is significant. May start the w4 into the 3/3 low. 3/3 low comes from 11/4/16 + 1440 degrees.

        I see tidal inversions 6 and 7. 6 is the strongest day but the inversions may push the turn into Tuesday. Then abc down into 2/13-14. The up into 2/22. Then down into 3/3.

        A w5 high mid march is possible; will explain tomorrow and may Peter has some ideas on this.

        Gann’s annual forecast gives 2/4, 2/8. 2/13-14, 2/26, 3/4-5, 3/14-15, 3/20, 3/28-29.

        Still think the main cycle is down into the end of may before we test the notorious 8/21.


  • andré February 4, 2017, 6:14 am

    The delta system uses the 19 year cycle and that is what Carolan uses for the solunar model. To get more insight we look at the yearly high and low of the relevant years. Is the high in January and the low in december the year is down; duh..

    Anyways; 3 of the relevant years gave a high in january; 5, 8 and 11. One made a low 1/10. This alone explains why the market is sideways; 3 years are down but one year up. One year shows a low in august and is also down. The last one shows a high in oktober and the low in november. So it is a bit of a mixed bag.

    What is clear is that after 4/10 we should see some more down trend so this may be a significant date. And the energy up into 4/10 creates a high in march but all against the dominant down force. The average of the low dates in 3/14 and of the high dates 6/30. These dates may also be relevant.

    One relevant year looks at 1941. Next year this will be 1942 and we know 1942 showed a very significant low. Low in 2018?

    The 100 year cycle – not part of delta – gave a high in january and is down all year.

    Combined this suggests we are already in a bearmarket but with some upforce left for the next few weeks.

    Just some background; no trading advice 😉

  • andré February 4, 2017, 6:57 am

    Tidal inversions are objective timers as they come straight from the tides. All I do is apply my formula.

    The inversions give 6/7, 13/14 and 20/23. The periods may be seen as natural periods for change. 13 and 14 are special as we have high tide and low tide inversions on both days; looks like some kind of natural alignment.

    Jack Gillen’s sensitive degrees of the sun give 2/5, 2/17, 2/22-23. So this aligns comfortably wtih the inversions. Vukcevics formula on Jupiter/saturn (Y = 100 abs[ Cos(2 p/3 + 2 p (t-1941)/(2 * 11.862)) + Cos 2 p (t-1941)/19.859 ]) gives 2/2, 2/12 and 2/23. In this formula we see cycles on different levels. The values run from 0 til 200. When close to either value the timing is significant. The 2/12 reading comes at 0,27 what is extremely low. The highest values recently have been low. The next extreme value high (199.43) comes 4/13,

    The stunning fact is the my delta analysis shows some upforce into 4/10 and the J/S formula – really something else! – shows a cycle into 4/13. The last time we saw a significant high was mid august 16. This gave the 8/15 high and was confirmed by my Jupiter indicator. The HC Saturn cycle on 8/15 gives 2/6. Another reason to assume we will see a high early next week.

    • Ed February 4, 2017, 7:13 am

      Thank You! Now I understand!

    • Valley February 4, 2017, 12:37 pm

      Wow! Andre’ very inspiring research.

  • andré February 4, 2017, 7:54 am

    Tomorrow I will redo my vukcevic analysis. He actually gives 2 cycles : the sunspot cycle and the Maunder minimum function. Had a bug in the formula. Now it is correct. Gives some new insights. Will share tomorrow.

  • andré February 4, 2017, 9:37 am

    Have now the final formula’s. The whole issue is the Vuckevic is a climate scientist and looks at long term cycles. I recalculated all periods using actual orbital periods in days and recalculating to years. This gives a slight difference.

    The maunder formula (using saturn, Jupiter and Uranus) gave an extreme low 1/27 and now gives a high 2/23, The sunspot indicator now gives a high 2/7, a low 2/12, a high 2/17 and a low 2/23. So the formulas now align perfectly. The next maunder extrem is 3/21 the sun spots give an extreme high (198,11) 3/22, This could be the w5 high. New indicator; so some more research to do.

  • andré February 4, 2017, 10:56 am

    The maunder cycle has it’s highest value this year 2/23 and it lowest 11/30.
    The sunspot cycle has it’s yearly high 2/23 and it yearly low 5/20.

    This suggests 2/23 is a very significant high. It also suggests a low by the end of may (as I stated before). After that 7/19 may be a significant high as 8/20. Amazing how this indicator confirms the 8/20-21 we already knew.

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave, natural cycles, and the Quantum Revolution (Great Awakening). I welcome questions or comments about any of these subjects. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, is unhelpful, or off-topic. Such comments may be removed.

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