We’re on borrowed time. The Great Financial Revolution is underway and only months sit between us and a major financial collapse.
One of the major cycles that I’ve talked about often is the 172 year cycle. This cycle is a “financial collapse cycle.” There are larger and smaller cycles. The larger ones are even more devastating than the 172 cycle. The 516 cycle top, which we passed in 2007, has been delayed thanks to central bankers, but the cracks are already starting to show. It won’t be long now until we see the end of the decadence, immense wealth, and power centred in the elite. Their world is going to come crashing down, as it will for anyone unaware of the gigantic changes taking place.
I’m in the midst of a much longer work on the following subject, but what follows is a brief summary of a 172 cycle from a financial perspective.
Dr. Raymond Wheeler, PhD spent a good portion of this life (along with 200 employees) documenting the cycles of history going back to the year 600 B.C. Dr. Wheeler created the Drought Clock, which showed the periodicity of these recurring cycles in a manner that shows their predictability, verifiable through observation, and supported by data from a variety of independent sources.
I’ve been working over the past ten years to understand in more detail the patterns of the longer worldwide cycles of 172 and 516 years as identified by Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler and Stephen Puetz. Dr. Wheeler identified the cycle lengths for climate of 25, 100, 170, and 500 years, while Stephen Puetz has done the work to prove their veracity, shifting the 170 cycle, for example, to a more accurate 172 years.
In 2009, Stephen Puetz published The Unified Cycle Theory, which identified these cycles more precisely. In fact, he found that using Wheeler’s vast amount of data, along with the work Edward Dewey and others, he was able to shift cycle dates slightly to end up with a harmonic relationship between the major cycles, which gave him an probability of or more than 98% when matching major financial collapses with major theoretical cycle turns.
Note that the conjunction of Uranus and Neptune averages to a 172.4 time span. Other conjunctions of other planets seem to support many of the other cycles lengths. There is more work to be done here to bring all this together, but the implications are obvious, and the supporting data continues to mount up.
The above diagram (click to expand) comes from the work of Dr. Raymond Wheeler. It shows the climate (temperature is the solid line and tree ring growth, which is primarily rainfall) from 1200 through 1720. The variations in temperature are Wheeler’s, but this information has been matched almost exactly from the GISP data from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project in the 1990s. I am one of the only people with access to Dr. Wheeler’s diagrams.
Dr. Wheeler recorded major events worldwide and aligned them with climate cycles to show recurring patterns. There is a deep well of data that is fodder for a much longer book, putting all this information into perspective. I’m showing two 172 cycles overlaid on the diagram (the first from 1320 through 1492, and the second from 1491 through 1664). Each of the years mentioned marked a period of financial collapse, which happens towards the end of each of these cycles.
Leading up to the first cycle date in the diagram (1320), there was a huge financial collapse just after the year 1298, and ending with the bankruptcy of Gran Tavola, the most powerful bank at the time, and led to a state of financial ruin which was to last decades.
In 1315, Europe suffered 3 solid years of torrential rain, which ruined crops, and caused a worldwide famine. Climate is almost always a factor at the cycles turns, as extreme weather appears usually just before a major downturn. We saw the same thing in Rome just before the year AD 100, when Rome was at its height. We’re also seeing extreme weather all through the United States and Europe. This has come just before the theoretical cycle top of 2007, both 172 and 516 year cycle top. These extreme climate pattern tend to last 25 years (Dr. Wheeler) but can vary in length.
The bottom line is that these cycles are real, they have a proven periodicity, and the patterns within them follow a common pattern. We’re at the top of the latest cycle now, expecting a turn colder in climate, a financial collapse, and major bank failures around the world. We are not in control of the ups and downs of the economy. Central bankers think they are, but they’re about to be taught a lesson once again, that they conveniently forget. As Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”
In 1996, David Hackett Fischer published a book entitled, The Great Wave, Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. In minute detail, he chronicles the financial, political, and social events of the Medieval ages up through the 1800s. Without knowing about either Puetz’s or Wheeler’s work, he’s put together a detailed description of the recurring pattern that meticulously supports their work, the cycle turn dates they both established, and has provided yet another source that proves the existence of these recurring patterns.
He identified four stages (I’ll summarize stages 1 through 3 and then elaborate (from The Great Wave) on stage four, as that’s the stage we’re currently in):
Stage One: Prices rise slowly. led by food and fuel. Manufactured good and services lagged behind. Population began to grow. The standard of living began to grow, as well. Optimism in the future returned once more.
Stage Two: Prices broke through the barrier of the previous cycle high and tended to happen when wars began to break out. You can think of the world wars of the early 1900s, as an example (in our latest cycle). Prices surged up and down as a result. Cultural anxiety began to build.
Stage Three: Price inflation became a long-term trend. Governments and individuals expanded the supply of money. Price inflation became more elaborately institutionalized.
Stage Four: “A fourth stage began as this new institutionalized inflation took hold. Prices went higher, and became highly unstable. They began to surge and decline in movements of increasing volatility. Severe price shocks were felt in commodity movements. The money supply was alternately expanded and contracted. Financial markets became unstable. Government spending grew faster than revenue, and public debt increased at a rapid rate. In every price revolution, the strongest nation-states suffered severely from fiscal stresses: Spain in the 16th century, France in the 18th Century, and United States in the 20th Century.
Other imbalances were even more dangerous. Wages, which at first kept up with prices, now lagged behind. Returns to labor declined while returns to land and capital increased. The rich grew richer. People of middling estates lost ground. The poor suffered terribly. inequalities of wealth and income increased. So also did hunger, homelessness, crime, violence, drink, drugs, and family disruption.
These material events had cultural consequences. In literature and the arts, the penultimate stage of every price revolution was an air of dark visions and restless dreams. This was a time of lost faith in institutions. It was also a period of desperate search for spiritual values. Sects and cults, often very angry and irrational, multiplied rapidly. Intellectuals turned furiously against their environing societies. Young people, uncertain of both the future and the past, gave way to alienation and cultural anomie.
Finally, the great wave crested and broke with shattering force, in a cultural crisis that included demographic contraction, economic collapse, political revolution, international war, and social violence. Long-term inflation ceased. Prices stabilized, then declined further, and stabilized once more. Real wages begin to rise, but returns to capital and land fell.” — The Great Wave, Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, David Hackett Fischer
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This pattern has played out in the past four 172 year cycles. The specifics are always exactly the same, but the pattern holds each and every time. We’re about to experience a series of world-changing events that those in power will be powerless to stop. The downtrodden will eventually come back on top, but as is always the case, there’s going to be a lot of pain and stupidity along the way.
Do you recognize in our current situation any of the traits described?
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The Market This Week
Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts). For the past couple of weekends, the waves seemed to indicate we've finished the third wave and we're in the fourth wave. Well, we're in a fourth wave, but as it turns out, one degree lower than the fourth wave I was expecting. It's become obvious the US indices have one more wave up to go to complete the third wave.
In the chart above, nothing much has changed, except that I've moved the final topping labels a little bit to the right in expectation of another brief top before heading down into the long awaited fourth wave. In the past three weeks, we've dropped about 50 points in the SP500 but we were unable to break the support of the previous wave four.
As of Friday, we've started heading up in what looks like a rally that will reach new highs. The DOW appears to be in a small ending diagonal with one more wave up to complete it.
The USD currency pairs are all moving in tandem with the US indices and are in various "stages of turn." EURUSD appears to be the most advanced in the "topping process," with USDCAD a close second.
Summary: We have one more rally to a new high to go before we drop into the higher degree fourth wave, which will be a major correction. This current pattern we're in is the fourth wave of the fifth wave of primary degree wave three.
After completing the larger fourth wave, we'll have one more wave to go, which could be an ending diagonal as a fifth wave. The long awaited bear market is getting closer.
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Hebrew timing suggests a high for 7/10. Said before 7/13 is important.
In comes the lunar inversion window that runs from 7/10 into 7/13.
So we should expect some consolidation (l,h,l,h)
After that we see a low 7/17 before we test 7/21. then 8/3 low.
The 2007-2009 decline took 512 days (almost exactly 17 months).
Add 6 times 512 to the 2009 low and we get 8/3/17.
6 very significant in a 3 dimensional world (a box has 6 sides). This makes 8/3 a very significant date and Mr Market simply can’t ignore it.
In 2015 and 2016 8/3 was a low. Gann would call this an anniversary.
energy streams confirm
https://s13.postimg.org/5sk0bljzb/july_6_to_21_energy_chart.gif
thanks Tom. So July 13,14 and 17 looks like down days and then rebound again
As usual, Peter, nicely done. It’s probably just a typo on your part but Puetz’s work is called “The Unified Cycle Theory,” not “United.” On a practical basis, the greatest handicap we have as cycle researchers are the data. I paid a nephew of mine to research stock prices in newspapers from the 1800s at the Harvard library and I was amazed at the sparseness of the data. On some days back then, less than 5-10 stocks traded with any volume at all, and although the “The Foundation for the Study of Cycles” has been a tremendous aid in presenting us with some kind of data series back to the late 1700s, we always have to be careful in trusting the reliability of data going back that far. Sparse data are better, of course, than none at all, but one wonders at the reliability of data that are several centuries old. That should not stop me and you and others with a love of cycles from continuing to slowly put together the greatest jig-saw puzzle in the world. Keep up the good and original research!
Peter,
Thanks – not the first time I’ve done that. The data I’m citing was exhaustively researched and matches Wheeler’s work, so there are multiple sources for the same data. I’ve lots and lots of it. It’s more below 1,000 that the challenges get a bit greater.
Peter T one of the more interesting responses you provided to a query about the limits of central bank hubris is that they were subject to forces larger than themselves. I am wondering whether you think they are aware of this and just reckless, or they are completely delusional? Or both?
Verne,
I think they’re delusional. Money does that. It also creates a hubris bubble. At the top of markets, people think they can do anything. The fact that they can’t will create another lesson like all the previous ones that, due to human nature, may yet again get lost in history. I hope not. That for me, would make this time different.
There’s an article in The Economist apparently that predicts one world currency by 2018. My goodness, they can’t hold together the euro, so what on Earth are they talking about?
Central bankers have failed again and again all through history. “Laissez-faire” was a reaction to their failures, although it didn’t last all that long. We have major bank failures at least every 172 years, but of course, there are shorter cycles, and we have bank failures then, too. Fiat, unbacked currency has never been successful.
So this is the definition of insanity, if you ask me. Same input expecting a different output.
Everyone on Earth is subject to forces larger than themselves. Otherwise, how do you explain the regularity and persistent patterns that play out in the market, over and over again for hundreds of years. Humans don’t think on a grand scale about a fibonacci target and that they have to get out of the market at a certain point.
How do explain any of the other cycles, or the effect of the Moon on circadian rhythms, but I digress.
Central banks fail. Rothschild banks have failed catastrophically in the past. We don’t read history (generally) and when we do, we don’t pay attention to it. If we did, we’d be prepared for these downturns, and we’d perhaps revert to free markets … I know … dream on …
Well, perhaps a few of us will…be prepared that is! ?
The 1929 high was 2158 days in the hebrew calendar. In 2017 this gives us 8/21/17.
This will be a high. Not because of the eclipse; just 1929 vibration.
As it happens 2158 days is the exact midpoint in a hebrew year. Midpoints are very strong.
Where I said days I mean degrees. Typo
Hello André, would you be able to share your view? It’s been a long while since your last (and always priceless) update. Hope all is well with you!
On the same subject, I liked Will Slatyer (2012) – Life/Death Rhythms of Ancient Empires – Climatic Cycles Influence (400 p.)
https://books.google.com.et/books?id=B6dlAwAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=%22Life%2FDeath%20Rhythms%20of%20Ancient%20Empires%20-%20Climatic%20Cycles%20Influence%22%20%22Will%20Slatyer%22&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false
Looks like we are still in this very long 3rd wave?
Peter- my two cents following a few top Elliott wave and cycle forecasters- all are calling the final top at the end of this year before the “big fall”. that means it will come sooner than expected or next year because the consensus is rarely right. thanks
Peter G,
Since you mention your interest in cycles it made me think…Do you have any “cycle” that you follow that aligns itself with the Double HO?
The S&P and NASDAQ seems to have a lot of resistance to new highs over the past 3 weeks. Only thing I can think of is a cycle of some degree exerting some downward pressure. It is certainly not overhead price resistance since we have never been at these levels before.
Those are two separate disciplines for me, Ed, and I not only do not have any cycles that would correlate with HOs, I wouldn’t expect to see such a relationship. The importantly consistent cycle I am counting on to produce a major high this year is the 17 year cycle with major turns in 1898, 1915, 1932, 1949, 1966, 1983 (the only one that did not resolve in the exact 17th year with the August 1982 major low coming 5 months before the expected 1983 resolution), and 2000 (exactly back on track again). Add 17 years to 2000 and voilà, here we are. It is perhaps the most consistent longer term turning point pattern since the inception of the DJIA in the 1890s. Trying to narrow it down further would suggest a resolution prior to mid-year but I wouldn’t put too much trust in that. It is possible we have seen a final high already, especially in light of the great majority of cycle, EW, and technical artisans who insist we have not, but orthodox thechnical analysis would insist we need to see a negative divergence on the a-d line before a final top and that has not occurred as yet…
Peter G,
Thank you for a very thought provoking response.
Many technicians are citing Lowry’s market breadth analysis to make the case that an
absence of price a/d line divergence is proof of a healthy market. I am frankly puzzled that healthy breadth data is being measured in a environment that results in seven Hindenburg Omens, but then I don’t know how the data is derived.
The other intetesting assumption is that the current market will top with identical technical conditions as previous ones.
Thinking the market will not top until there is an a-d divergence is not quite an assumption, Verne. It is an awareness of technical history. If virtually every important market top of the past 90 years has displayed negative a-d divergence at major tops, you might be well served to think that will happen at the top of this market. Otherwise, you might be accused of making the “assumption” that this time is different, and that could indeed be a dangerous mistake. Two further points. One could make the observation that advance-decline data on the NY Exchange has changed in a substantive way over the past decade with a growing plethora of interest rate related securities now trading there. The second point is that if you treat advancing-declining volume in the same way as a-d issues, there is already a distinct negative divergence between cumulative advance-decline volume and new highs in the popular indexes… for what it’s worth.
Which is why I confessed ignorance as to exactly how the market breadth Lowry’s publishes is calculated. I do not think it is simply a matter of more stocks advancing than declining. That breadth figure can clearly be distorted in cases where you have significant unequal weighting of an index’s components. If we look at market leaders for example in the Nasdaq, we have had a larger percentage of this year’s gains concentrated in fewer stocks, than we had at the 2000 top, so one can argue in some sense that we have seen, already, market extremes greater than existed at prior NDX all time highs. Clearly there are many things about the current market that are “different”. Among the important ones I think are both the remarkably low volume during the bull run, and the advent of high frequency and algo trading to an extent far exceeding previous market tops. I am open to the possibility that TA readings could be affected in ways we have not considered.
In fact I head a trader familiar with the algos driving HF trading give a really startling explanation of what could have happened with the recent Silver flash crash, and the bottom line was that some of these programs can now execute orders faster than the exchange computers can process them. If you give that a bit of thought, you can see why I think all bets are off when it comes to predicting with any great certitude how and when this thing is going to implode.
Peter G,
On the a/d line discussion…How does anyone account for the indiscriminate buying of stocks that are components of a heavily traded index.ie Russell 2000 Index. Per John Mauldin over 30% of the stocks that make up said index are losing money(no earnings) for trailing 12 months.
When someone buys an index fund or an ETF comprised of the Russell 2000 stocks…they are buying with equal enthusiasm companies that are making money but also stocks that are losing money.
Doesn’t that affect the integrity of the a/d line? Per John Mauldin there is no “price discovery”!
Also a question on your point about interest rate related stocks. Surely there must be some type of accounting of only the stocks on the NYSE that are common stocks! Would that bit of information change things?
I think a lot of people would be interested in your perspective. This a/d line issue doesn’t make sense to me.
Interesting question about how they account for ETF buying, or if they even account for it at all. If they do not, then of course the ETFs can continue to look healthy if the heaver weighted components, although in the minority, are doing well, and even if most of the other components are in bear markets. This appears to be the case now with several indices, despite some of them trading near all time highs. By the time the ETF holders figure out the market’s true condition as the leaders and heavily weighted components begin to decline, and of course all try to bail en masse…well, you can figure it out. This ETF proliferation is a huge complicator that I have not seen much discussed.
Peter, I have been watching this site since January. I have observed that you have been calling for the end of wave 3 for the last 6 months. The other site I follow is https://caldaro.wordpress.com/ . He has a very interesting article in this weeks summary.
It is called the ” Quantified Elliot Wave Theory”. It follows the weekend update.
Just a different perspective on EW. Tony claims a primary wave 3 bull market started in 2016.
can Elliot wave or any other indicator tells when it will be dropped?
My original EW count had us in a series of nested first and second waves. That count should have seen third wave declines at five degrees starting last Thursday with a decisive break of 2400 and that just didn’t happen. I guess it is possible we had another torturous second wave Friday with a quinartet of third waves on deck. A failure to take out 2400 out the gates on Monday will lay that count firmly to rest imho and suggest a new high next week after this consolidation period.
Peter
excellent update .
thanks for the note in regard to Neptune conjunct Uranus.
the last Neptune Uranus conjunction was in Sept of 1993.
i look it up and now im thinking you may have helped me
to discover a potential flaw or educated error in my model.
i had the conjunction configured as a high and im thinking
now thanks to you that may have been a mistake.
if so then a bit of re work and digging to go into .
doesn’t effect me today yet something ill research .
Thank you 🙂
In regards to weather and planets i can only say i have noticed
odd alignments, sometimes 30 degrees sometimes 60 degrees etc
yet it has been very difficult to discover a constant.
next year or 2019 Neptune Uranus will touch 45 degrees from the looks of it .
my data only runs into may 2018 though .
point being it may end up as an odd angle . no doubt we are in a cooling cycle
and while im not an astrologist 45 degrees is a hard angle from what i understand. we should know soon enough .
anyways
your data from dr wheeler is awesome 🙂
if the oddball comparison i spoke about last week
has any meaning , it hits between 0200-0300 pdt
Monday am .if i am going to be filled that would be when
i expect it to happen. this would be the equivalent to the morning
0600 am may 16th high . the decline would last 43 trading hours
this is based on the dow futures 24 hour chart .
the key price being 21478. my sell order being being kept
at 21462 for now .
if this is a triangle then a poke above 21473 should be expected as i see it
and the drop would not be as steep as the may 16th may 18th drop .
breaking Fridays low at 21257 opens the door for a more complex triangle
as well as a steeper decline .
to soon to call it as i see it .
going to focus this week on trading and i do not to post
because there is to many possibilities as i see it with this market .
new highs very possible peter but im gong to stick to my plan
a guy has to catch his own fish ( or not )
thank you for the posts
i appreciate them .
Joe
Another interesting and informative post, Peter. Thanks!
🙂
7th HO generated on friday
additional energy stream showing larger ramp up on july 12th
https://s24.postimg.org/rpxs1vvat/july_10_to_12_energy_stream.gif
Yes. We most certainly are in some sort of minor degrre fourth wave and need a final fifth up to complete the larger wave. I predict the trend change will announce its arrival with a summary demolition of the 2400 shelf on the first impulse down. But first, 2480 or thereabouts.
Hi Tom congrats spot on.
This last chart is more clear ,do you have one for the nest 3 days or do?
Thanks
John.
There are a couple ways to raise cash .
one is to sell the other side of the coin
is to change your spending habits .
i noticed something that goes on with the credit
card companies lately ( specifically B of A ).
I work on the ocean so i have to pay my bills outside of
the billing periods . this means i pay my bills before
they come. i call the credit card company on the phone
and go through the pay by phone method .
what they have done or at least started to do . is the auto mated
system says my bill will be due on x date and my total balance is x.
i pay the bill in advance about 1 to 2 weeks early . then i find out
that the real bill was something else . On top of that the most recent
bill that i thought was due July 6th , well turns out it was due July 2nd.
so i went through the requested previous 58 transactions which was
a few months back . i m finding interest charges which are not much but
it is because of the balances left over even though i m thinking its paid in full.
Bastards cant stop me though, i m onto the game and my balance has been
paid in full for months in a row .
My advice ? double check your bill by phone and make note of the charges pending yet not yet posted . Also double check a day or 2 later after making
a payment just to make sure you really have a 0 balance before the due date
and also double check that due date .
I do not have this issue with Chase, Home depot , its just B of A.
To add to this , Many years i ago i Closed my bank account with B of A because
they started charging me 25 Bucks a month on an account that was supposed
to have NO fees.
in the mean time , i have cut my spending habits in Half .
I wanted to force the wave count mind you by purposely cutting my spending
and most of the spending was because of an extensive remodel that is winding down.
My bank account reflects what this chart shows .
Nothing wrong with accumulating Cash .
No Comment on the stock market .
http://imgur.com/qFnkIYz
to all- it is very strange that almost every Elliott wave and cycle forecaster is saying the exact same thing that the final fifth wave will take us to high 2400’s or 2500 in the next few months. I promise you since since this the broad consensus that will not be the case. thanks
http://tinyurl.com/y87xf6k7
thanks for your input…
This mornings low may have been the low of
the 43 hour decline i was talking about last week.
yet the time for that low was to be today’s close.
or early morning tomorrow.
the utilities still have a few days to finish wave 5 down.
unless you want to call it a truncated 5 ? not something i like to do .
a Friday low on the utilities would be in my opinion a better
time for a low . Also i have Cancelled my sell short trade
at this time and will consider turning bullish the Dow futures
Monday next week . A low in this time frame implies a more
bullish outcome into august.
Im still keeping the bearish mindset just considering the more
bullish 8 month cycle which does point higher into august
providing we see a low this week.
its going to be a bit tricky though with the coming up futures
roll over . July 20th will be important as will july 14th .
Keeping my eyes open for either side of the trade , bullish bias
yet very open to a much more bearish decline.
July 14th close is where i make my longer term bias.
more data needed.
possible Triangle still unfolding from june 19th
Wave A i can place is 2 places yet to keep it simple .
wave A the june 29th low
wave B the all time high in the dow on july 3rd
Wave C is this mornings low ( or a low by friday )
Wave D is not yet in ( was my reason for holding to the sell order
which may still be traded by me .
Wave E is not yet in either .
The utilities despite being a different index has been a decent
indicator so to speak lately and it is where my timing lays .
a low Friday would be Key.
Janet yellen indicating quantitative tightening might bring
a taper tantrum .
Keep your eyes on the chart we may still get a couple more whip saws
before the trend emerges .
Joe
looks like a blow-off top tomorrow afternoon
https://s9.postimg.org/hn4fpzq2n/july_10_to_13_energy_stream.gif
Thanks, Tom.
🙂
Thank-you for providing a fellow Canadian a platform for posting comments
My pleasure. I’m fascinated by what you’re doing. You’ve really got something here, I think.
What would be expected as a thrust out a triangle formation…
I would not expect it to last just one day thought if it is a fifth wave up.
21454 key resistance dow futures ( previously 21480-21494 )
A time line hits tomorrow at the open at 21423 .
i consider this present bounce today as wave C to wave D
which if done tomorrow would be relatively short in terms of time.
the June 23rd to June 28th period appears to be similar to what
is going on today . The difference being wave A can be considered
the drop of june 28 29th where as if we do top tomorrow morning the decline
should be much less intense since it would be considered wave E
to compare look at the june 23rd- june 28th period compared to july 6th
to date period , the swings are very similar . if this hold true then a high
near the open should be expect near 21423-21454.
Also this also would imply a variable of wave E becoming its own triangle
to make up time .
Next week would be the Inflection point .
Back to work .
Future work space .
http://imgur.com/Mv2dLmC
the exact hit is 822 am tomorrow morning so ill plan on giving this market a couple
hours following the open to look for a very short term high.
I have to say I remain deeply skeptical that we have had a trend change so long as SPX holds critical support in the 2400-2420 area. In every single case the last few years these sideways movements where support has held has ultimately resulted in upside breaks and I expect the same in this instance. Having said that, it could be that those of us looking for some kind of impulsive move down could be jumping to conclusions about how the eventual downturn will unfold. The market for some time has been characterized by an amazing absence of any selling pressure whatsoever with non-existent volatility. It could be that we are witnessing a new paradigm of a “managed decline” where the market just continues to make lower highs and lower lows over time with none of the kind of capitulation selling that signals an interim bottom. That would really screw up the heads of an awful lot of traders so let’s hope that is not what’s going on. It would be nice to see some kind of resolution to all the sideways meandering sometime soon. I am straddling the price action until we get some directional confirmation. ‘Bye all!
Final post for the week
dow daily chart has had a high every 5 trading days since
June 19th
June 19th high
June 26th high
July 3rd high
July 11th is today <—— Another high ?
To soon to call it yet the next 5 day period
is 5 trade days following today .
June 20th was the print high ( after the closing high june 19th )
7 trade days later was the low on june 29th
add 7 trade days and you have today July 11 th .
this makes today a double time line . Also
this can be a labeled a high to low to low count
vs the previous high to high to high count on the 5 day.
this makes today an important key day.
if you start at the june 23rd date low and use a 4 trade day swing
june 23rd low plus 4 you get june 29th low plus 4 you get july 6th
low plus for you get tomorrow july 12th so tomorrow is another
key day which can be considered a low to low to low to high count.
from the june 19th closing high in the daily dow to the low on june 29th
was 8 trade days , add 8 trade days to the june 29th low and you get tomorrow
july 12th .this makes tomorrow another double time line .
putting them all together the focal point date following tomorrow
will be july 18th . this time period of july 18th 20th . is where
things get tricky , 30 days before the solar eclipse.
july 14th is a key day based on other work .
It is still to soon to consider this a 4th wave triangle and not just a sideways
move which will lead to lower prices .
done ….
enjoy the week everyone
Joe,
I wonder what your “idea of a spreadsheet” tracking the posts of participants of this site would actually show us. I seem to recall that you felt that the number and frequency and volume of posts would shed light on the potential future direction on the markets. I believe you felt it might have a “contrarian” bent.
Anyway, I wander what it would tell us now collectively? Only a few posters think that theirs views are worth sharing. That’s a guess! The site seems quiet at least to me.
So we have Joe, Verne, Peter G occasionally, and of course Peter T. All their posts are appreciated by me and most everyone…My oh My…I wish Joe had created that spreadsheet and that is not a criticism of Joe because I value and look forward to his posts.
I wonder what Joe’s hypothetical spreadsheet would be telling us today? Just rambling!
Tom’s energy chart nailed it. We have the expected sharp thrust out of the triangle formation. I had some doubts about the energy chart showing the final wave to be a one day affair but a sustained move higher from such low VIX levels seems unlikely. This could indeed be a short, sharp move up followed by an equally sharp reversal. That is how I am trading it with an exit from long positions at the close.
Ed
The idea i had of tracking posts was to see if we all
come to a collective decision on specific dates and if those
dates would show turns in the market with any consistency.
What i have observed with this idea though and i have not
done anything on it in relation to this site is this .
if you have a group with a decided bias then that bias will be what
shows up . It doesn’t mean everyone is correct only that the bias
of the group will show through . I did start to build that questionnaire
yet i also discovered there is a cost in doing so and i was not able to find
what i was trying to accomplish . its still something i think about though .
i think that in order for it to show anything meaningful it will need a very
large group .
I will say this and maybe peter T notices it in regards to this site.
i’ll guess the volume of people looking at this page probably ebbs and flows
with the market . People tend to gravitate and read what they want to here
so if peter T is bearish lets say the traffic will rise with a bearish trend and fall with a bullish trend . Also when the market is confusing i would assume the traffic rises as more people search out information .
Generally though when the market is rising and people are complacent i would assume the volume of people searching about the stock market swings would decline.
As for the adv decline line ? i think it is one of the most consistent indicators
there is so peter g thoughts are taken in . I used to be concerned about the interest rate parts of it yet now it does not concern me at all . i use a 10 day simple moving average of the daily closes and it has been trading in a range
for as long as i can think of ( the past 20 years anyway )
the etf and index buying is what i think is the problem because ed as you pointed out the buying of an index or etf does mean your buying weak stocks as well as good stocks . there is no price discovery yet the heavier weighted stocks in an index will be purchased at a slightly higher percentage then the lower weighted stocks . I cant state the dow weightings from my head at this moment but i do look at them at least a couple times per year . In the dow , it used to be that 6 stocks covered around 40 % of the index and 12 stocks covered around 60 percent of the index . this is why i have stated that it is best to follow the leaders
I tested this back in late 1999 and early 2000 with the nasdaq 100 because there was only a very small amount of stocks ( around 10 at the time ) that moved that 100 stock index . I used that group to trade the nasdaq futures in feb march 2000 and i was surprised in doing this because it gave me a very slight lead in short term swings in the futures ( 3 minutes roughly ) .
if we all held true to technical analysis then we would also understand that
the stock market index’s are a collective of mass emotion/social mood .
the advance decline line is a collective of what people are doing vs what people say. So in a way the advance decline line is the vote on direction and peter G
is correct on many pf his posts in regards to this .
Tom has his own method with frankly is amazing , Andre also has his own methods which are something i pay attention to . id say that every post on this site and all the inputs created including peter t post each week show the collective .
one tid bit ill add .
the one thing i have noticed over the years and it has burned me to many times
not to pay attention to it is the 4th wave triangle formation .
when a 4th wave triangle forms ( narrowing wedge ) the collective of market participants are in fact indecisive . If the masses view this as a sideways trend
that will turn out bullish they will accumulate and if the market then turns down?
its a shock so to speak and generally from what i have seen in the past it thrusts
the market downward further than the measured objective would imply.
Triangle tops in my opinion are a sign of a trend change but not a proven trend change until that downward thrust actually comes . Verne you are correct in assuming the 2400 level on the spx in my opinion yet for me i like a cushion
in my trades to be able to ride out the swings with being stopped out .
Take a look at the 2007 top on a weekly chart ( triangle failure )
take a look at the 60 minute dow futures from june 19th to date .
this mornings in the futures has now satisfied my view of a triangle still forming
( wave D is now in) yet the cash market must also provide this same pattern so i wait for the open and as noted yesterday it should print near the open yet give the market 2 hours.
Now to sum this up , lets say this is a triangle 4th wave
where is the true inflection point ? it is wave E yet if it is going to fail ?
then this upcoming decline will follow the E wave projections fairly well
then the thrust that should be expected would be weak and catch everyone going what the hell is going on ? and bam a break down .
i always place my stops at the Low of wave C ( the july 11 low )
and the high of wave D which in my opinion will be this mornings high
provided we do not see a new all time high .
in short the wave E will become the next key support when and if it prints
and wave D will become the next key resistance if this is the pattern.
On the dow futures this morning that wave D ( if it is finished ) sits at 21488
so i sell against 21488 and since i cancelled my 21462 sell order i am free
to re enter the sell order against that high .
Bottom line: we are now in the final vote of this triangle formation and my gut
says be aware that not all triangle formations work out as expected and when they fail you get a big surprise in the opposite direction that everyone expects.
this mornings high in my opinion is going to be one of those important highs to pay attention to .
Its not a , i am bearish so have to be right type thinking , its simply that i have been caught off guard with these type set ups enough to be open to the fact
that they do fail at at times .
we are in a bearish cycle with in a bull cycle so a decline whether sideways or something more should be in the back of my head from now until the end of September .
If this triangle holds to the assumption that this is wave D and wave E holds and we thrust to new highs ? then id expect an august 21st high
Let the games begin .
that’s my overview and nothing will change it .
Keep your eyes on the chart and let it prove to you your right or wrong and trade accordingly is my bias.
Joe
lastly
i mentioned the 21529.70 is the key closing number i was looking for
for july 14th , we are there .
hence i must use this high as a place to be short and for me it is a hedge.
Earlier I had been looking for a Jupiter-Neptune magnet at 2454 which we did not hit although the flyby has already happened. The door is now open to new targets which I think have to be tagged before a meaningful pullback. So going along with Peter T’s view that the wave 3 is still working. 2454 to 2470 is the next range and this can carry on till after the Great American Eclipse . Week of Aug 19-26 looks decisive.
The market spoke
its not a triangle and we made a new all time high in the dow .
going to sit this out for a few hours before deciding to get short.
According to Prechter and Frost, it is possible to have triangles which are part of corrective combinations….I think that is exactly what we saw….
No trades today .
Utilities in a wave 4 ? next time line is tomorrow and its a daily.
better wait is my thought.
i want to short this badly yet going to sit out today
21518 is the resistance to a short term failed triangle
got short 21505 stop 21532 and wont like it if it breaks back above
21518. not liking this yet this mornings timeline was the plan so
tip toeing in on the short side .
being nimble
Me too! Closed bullish put spreads opened yesterday at this morning’s high. Holding bearish call spreads with hard stop at SPX 2480
Triangle thrusts are among the most reliable trade set-ups you will find….
nasdaq 100 , 5 minute chart today is still a concern .
the highs today really should hold yet if they fail
we could see a fairly strong rise .
going to hold onto the dow short for now and lower my stop near break even
21519 is the recent stop placement i lowered it to .
Verne
i used to love triangles yet i have learned to hate them
better put respect them . i don’t like trading against the cycles or the seasonal patterns regardless of a pattern .
im keying off now both the utilities and the nasdaq 100 .
somewhat keeping an eye on nvidia as well among-st a few other stocks i am long.
today despite my bearish bias looks fairly decent .
no way im going to assume this is a huge drop coming .
its a hedge is all .
Triangles can indeed be tricky. I find them reliable because the move out of them is almost always quite sharp so you know it’s coming ahead of time. What sometimes gets a bit tricky is getting the direction right. I used to trade them with a straddle to take advantage of the sharp move which of course means a smaller profit. The rule of the break-out going in the same direction (continuing pattern) as when price entered the triangle is fairly reliable. In this case it was a no-brainer. This long consolidation at support tested and holding multiple times made the upside break-out an almost certainty. Things now still a bit murky as the reversal was not sharp like I expected. I suspect we could be headed higher with SPX also printing a new ATH. I am also thinking about Tom’s energy chart that says the move up ends today
so we should get that confirmed by the close of that chart is correct.
Still holding bearish call spreads and a smaller contingent of out-of-the-money bullish put spreads.
We absolutely cannot rule out a continued move higher while SPX 2420 remains intact.
buy stop placed at 21476, somewhat tight stop from present levels and if stopped out will look at it tomorrow . if we are heading lower today i see now reason for that level to be touched . ill except if i am wrong .
see ya .
back to work
weekly dow now has 5 waves up on a closing basis from the april 10 closing low
a weekly close below 21197.08 is now needed to give me a more bearish bias .
daily chart is already making me cautiously bearish .
stopped out and i knew the stop was to tight yet , tomorrow is another day
and the ndx is giving a bullish bias and toms energy chart looks to be
correct again 🙂
21692 area is my next area to focus on if this market heads higher still .
21672.05 is the 1.618 times i and on a closing basis wave 5 will equal .618 of wave 1 at 21692 .
its a reasonable price target .
friday being july 14th and the weekly targets being considered i am going to assume i was premature on my bearish trade today so happy to be out yet
i still favor more downside which is a bit of a conflict of market vs my thinking.
done for the day and computer getting turned off.
week of april 10 low
week of may 15 low
week of june 19 low
week of july 24 ? High ???
week of feb 8 2016 low
week of oct 31 2016 low
week of july 24th ??? high ??
all based on dow weekly close only chart .
The week of july 24th is a double weekly timeline.
Should be an interesting week at the very least .
enjoy your weekend everyone .
tom-where do you get these energy based forecasts? thanks
I agree with Marc. As a cycles and market hobbyist, it would be very useful to research whatever inputs you are using to design the energy system.
Valley,
How does your PALS look next 10 days.
Bill
Hi Bill,
On Wednesday, mid day I went long US equities with my entire account. PALS:
Phase: bullish next two weeks, Distance: bullish next ten days, Declination: bullish next two weeks, Seasonals: bullish until next Wednesday.
Guess you must be expecting a major move up if you gone long with entire account. Are we talking 5% rally or more?
Can’t say an amount. Guessing US market will be higher into next week. Seasonals flip negative next Wednesday into August, so will take profit if market is higher next Wednesday.
Peter
I have finally come up with a valid place to sell at least
50 % of NVDA. it has had a tremendous run for me .
here is my method and it is based on an Elliot wave rule so to
speak yet not a true one that is in print anywhere .
A triangle thrust is a measured move correct ?
typically the thrust is equal to the widest range of the triangle ?
what i have done is use the price multiple vs just price points.
also just to add to this i am also watching the 100 % move up
from this years low as well as a minor 5 wave pattern projection .
I seriously doubt NVDA hits 200 dollars yet i do feel that the 180
price target is reasonable . hence 183-190 is probably all it gets
at least at this stage of the game.
just posting for you and admittedly this is an out of the box type
of projection yet it appears to fit .
http://imgur.com/iIsRMzf
SPX really laboring to get to that new all time high. Looks like a small third wave will complete today and probably a head fake for a fourth into the close before the fifth and final wave up tomorrow. Looking for VIX to signal the interim top with a new 52 week low which would be a classic signal for completion of a third wave.
Energy chart seems off target now after the good start to the week.
Well, we did make some new highs yesterday as predicted but I never took the idea of a blow-off top too seriously because of the wave count. SPX needs to make a new high as DJI and Transports did to complete this wave and I suspect that will come tomorrow. I certainly would not want to be long the market over the week-end. I bought volatility today and am still holding a few bullish put credit spreads and a SPY call option all of which I plan on exiting by the close tomorrow.
Could have been off by a couple of days. Looks like we are getting our blow-off today.
bull debate
a dip next week then back to the upside: http://imgur.com/tISWSvO
Bear debate : if history is to repeat itself , down into august
at the least .http://imgur.com/frj8wf9
21402.16 is now my key support level to watch.
July 25th is the next swing date as i see it .
That second chart is interesting and it is bit of a mystery to me what they mean by “historical correlation”. Correlation with what? The index itself? If that is the case it is suggesting that historically the index ALWAYS sees a dramatic and consistent decline in the month of August (at least according to that chart) and I doubt that is the case.
I could be wrong in assuming those grey data points represent a historical average of where the index trades on the specific time frame indicated.
the two combined say the same thing after august 30th
a low in September- October seems like a given and there is
no given in these markets
Thanks for the charts Joe. I think a better indicator to watch for a clue of what’s coming is VIX. If the decline is as close as I think it is, watch for bearish divergence with volatility as both the market and VIX go up tomorrow.
Even if it declines, I will continue to accumulate below 10.00
so frustrating its so difficult to predict a 3rd wave top..how can one predict 7 yr/17 yr or 500 yr cycle…this is the hardest part i think
Bill
to all from a new reader- I think that calling this top has been and is impossible. the only way to do it is to keep saying that a top is very near and say it weekly and at some point you will be right. then the person can say they called the top! thanks
This market does indeed continue to make calling tops look silly.
The word now is that Yellen has given the banksters the go-ahead to use their reserves to pay themselves fat bonuses and engage in more stock buybacks and that is what is driving these new highs. Could they be cashing out and drawing in the few remaining sideliners? Prices are now piercing upper Bollinger bands and VIX has been once again smashed into sub-ten atea.
For the patient, reversion to the mean will prove irrevocable. Looks like either a fifth or b wave close to completion to me.
I think US market will never “top”. McDonalds stock price was $1.00 in 1980. Now it is $155.00. The price of fast food increases every year as do other items. This is inflation. As inflation compounds, so does the nominal income. Since stock prices are calculated on income, the stock price increases. Based upon inflation alone stock prices will be 10x their current values in a few decades.
A very common sentiment at all market tops- “top will never arrive!” 🙂
It is a supreme irony. 75% of global debt is denominated in dollars. The vast majority of that debt will never be repaid. The tsunami of defaults will lead to dollar denominated debt destruction, making dollars more scarce, and therefore more valuable. I know it is very counter-intuitive and leads to the kind of sentiment you express. We will indeed ultimately experience hyper-inflation as central banks attempt to deal with what is coming. However, before hyper-inflation, we will certainly have a deflationary depression. People who do not understand this are going to be making some critical mistakes in their trading and investing mindset. A practical example, the so-called “rally” that junk bonds are now undergoing is nothing but free money for traders who recognize it as nothing more than a phantom. The three day pop in HYG is all going to be given back and then some. August or September puts should return an easy double. I continue to cheerfully trade these manic market moves to the upside, why not? I am under no illusion that they will continue ad infinitum. In fact the only way to stay ahead of this market, and this has been the case for some time now, is to scalp it. Most directional traders have been eaten alive by the algos running amuck. Get in, get the heck out! Cheers! 🙂
The stock market has gone up by a factor of 100X since early 1900s. If the next century has same inflation patterns, the Dow will be 2,000,000 in 2117.
Real estate has gone up by a factor of 80X, and eggs, butter, milk, bread have gone up by a factor of approx. 50X since early 1900s.
The most meaningful number you can look at to get a true picture of inflation is the Dow to Gold price ratio. The prices you cite do indeed utter reflect the reality of a falling dollar. We are now in a new cycle. The 30 year commo cycle topped a few years ago and prices have turned down. Velocity of money is at historic lows. All those people who piled into FED inflated assets will be fotunate to get 25 cents on the dollar for them. We have deflation ahead not inflation. You cannot afford to be on the wrong side of that economic reality. Sadly, many folk will be.
McDonald’s of course is a safe haven in a recession. It typically bucks the trend, so this argument carries no weight with me. I’d expect it to rise in recessionary environment (it was hardly hit in 2007/8).
You should be looking at the entire restaurant industry, which is starting a death spiral (it’s been negative for two years). Then there’s automotive, real estate (particularly in Canada and Australia—the US is already in a lot of trouble) and more importantly, banks. Credit is freezing up, banks can’t keep up the past pace of lending, which is extremely deflationary. And then there’s the velocity of money, which Verne has cited. If you can find something inflationary in those industries, that would carry some weight.
Then there’s retail, with record store closings … and more to come. The list goes on and on.
Here’s a comment on the restaurant market in zerohedge, which also cites McDonald’s. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-15/us-restaurant-industry-stuck-worst-collapse-2009
You’re absolutely right on MCD in 2007-2008, Peter, but it was not nearly as fortunate in the bust before that. MCD declined over 75% intra-day from November ’99 to March ’03… despite its admittedly good defensive characteristics. It did not regain its 1999 high until almost 7 1/2 years later. I can’t explain the difference in performance in those two bearish trends. Can anyone else, and which performance will it match in the upcoming bear, and why?
Thanks for this, Peter G.
I don’t have MCD in a long term chart. I’ll have to go back and take a look at the wave structure. Interesting.
Verne
You asked so ill try to answer your question on compared to what ?
from 1930 to date we have had 3 strong decades and 5 week decades
the 1930’s 1940’s 1960’s 1970’s 2000’s were all fairly weak decades
in terms of stock market appreciation .
the 1950’s 1980’s 1990’s were fairly strong decade returns on stocks
the present stock market returns beginning this decade ( jan 2010 to date )
ranks number 4 .
the chart attached shows all the dow accumulate percentage returns
on weekly basis from the start of each decade to the end of the decade.
week 1 in year 0 to week 52 in year 9 .
all of these decade charts show weakness from the year ending in 7 into the year ending in 8 .
this graph is a bit busy mind you but it is work in progress.
my other chart you asked about was the averages on a daily basis .
my thinking is that since wave 3 has still not ended then wave 4
bottoms late in the year and we head higher still into 2018 to finish wave 5.
yet as you can see years ending in 9 tend to be bullish as well .
my intent to to create another graph using the worst 5 decades
and another graph using the 3 best decades and running both progressions
and seeing what it shows .
i began each decade at 100 so they all start at the same number , each weeks
price movement was converted to a percentage move . this way it is all apples to apples over a 10 year period .
The solid blue is jan 2010 to date also converted into percents .
granted this is all statistics yet i feel its worth the effort .
http://imgur.com/yXSIXRF
the comment on the year ending in 9 tending to be bullish as well
is suspect big time
hope that answers your question
joe
i forgot to include the decade of 2000-2009 in this so for what its worth
it is not included in these work sheets.
the worst decades .
there is a common theme to both these charts .
This time may be different but if im going to play the odds ??
wave 3 is coming to an end and wave 4 will last longer then most
expect and possibly decline more than most expect .
After mid august ( ill give the solar eclipse aug 21 some bias for a high)
yet this is no time to be bullish the stock market in my humble opinion.
Ill update these charts in august .
Until then please enjoy the summer 🙂
past performance is not indicative of future results
charts posted for educational purposes only .
trading has risks . please be aware i m only sharing why im concerned
and why i have a cautiously bearish outlook .
http://imgur.com/u1Sdz6r
best decades
http://imgur.com/SODaBE3
Thanks Joe.
Very interesting. I have to say I fully agree about the current risk to bullish traders. I also think you are right about wave four being deep enough to dispel quite a bit of the present bullish glee. I am very conflicted about timing though. The seven Hindenburg Omens on the clock says a very significant decline is more likely than not by this year’s end. Whether they portend just the impending wave four decline or something more ominous is unclear.
I exited all long positions on Friday, and continue to accumulate long volatility position with each visit below VIX 10.00
I earlier mentioned that VIX making a new 52 week low would be consistent with the advent of a wave three top. We did not get a new 52 week low for VIX but we did for VXX. I suspect we will get VIX new low on Monday. I also opined that if the top is in, VIX should immediately reverse after the new low is printed and head towards a new spike high. Quite a few folk are saying that the indices are now in new long term up-trends and that we are off to the races. I guess anything is possible, and I would never have believed VIX compression could have remained this extreme for this long, but that is exactly what we have. I also remain convinced that the principle of reversion to the mean has not, and never can be abrogated by any single, or cohort of central banks’ arrogant conviction to the contrary. A day of reckoning is coming; not sure when, but I am sure it is coming……
Peter- do you ever apply the Elliott wave analysis to the VIX? thanks
Virtually impossible to do with derivative products.
Yes, but VIX tends to go up in three waves all the time, as it is never going to produce several sets of 5 waves to an ongoing rally, so there’s not a huge benefit in analyzing it. When it finishes three waves up, you know it’s going to come right back down … and it does.
Verne,
Any comments on McHugh?
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