We’re on the cusp of two worlds colliding. We’re leaving the corrupt old world, which is self-destructing, and entering the birthing phase of a new society. This is a global transition—a 500 year cycle of revolution.
The new environment (after a horrendous clash) will be harsher, simpler, focus more on humanity, and overturn the oligarchy that exists throughout the world today. The moneylenders will gradually lose their hold on the pursestrings of the world. They’re already feeling the pressure, and although they’ll resist, they won’t win. They never have through any of the previous five hundred year cycle turns.
It won’t be an easy transition—it will be traumatic, but the outcome will be for the better. Each major five hundred year revolution furthers democracy, freedom from financial oppression, and re-balances the social and economic playing field.
Here’s an overview of what to expect as we move through the biggest changes we’ve experienced in our lifetime—in fact, more intense change than any of several generations before us. This is all based on historical data collected over past 500 year transitions.
Climate
At the transition from Warm to Cold: Clustering of storms, floods, changeableness, heavy snows, blizzards, typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and volcanoes (volcanoes especially at the top of warm phase as it turns colder). Volcanic ash in the atmosphere causes the climate to cool.
The early stage of a cold period is wet (usually much less in length than the drier stage that follows). Hence the floods we’ve experienced around the world.
Politics
Leaders become weaker as the warm period reaches its peak. As we move into the colder climate, leaders become even weaker still, reigns are shorter and historically there is palace intrigue, suicide, and murder in the political realm.
At the moment, you can see the clash between the elite class and the commoners in the American election. Clinton is supported by the establishment (the elite and particularly the international banking community) and Trump represents the working man. It this revolution has truly taken hold, Trump will win. Even it he doesn’t, the people’s social revolution will eventually win.
Economy
Financial collapses always accompany a move from warm to cold climate. You can also find this attribute on a much smaller scale. For example, 1929 was a very cold year. My blog post entitled “Don’t Like the Climate, Wait a Cycle!” follows the temperature and the performance of the DOW over the past 100 years, so you can see how the fluctuating temperature helps predict the movement of the market. What’s actually happening is much more complex that a simple “cause and effect” link, but nonetheless, the correlation certainly exists.
Social
Social mood turns negative every 172 years and leads to a major revolution.
Ever wonder why the entire world seems to get angry all at the same time? The mood of the masses change in a cyclical manner. This is why revolutions are world-wide. It’s also why economic slumps are world-wide. You can see this phenomenon occur again and again all through history. We’re influenced by electromagnetic waves from the the planets and Sun—the influence has been scientifically proven, although we are in our infancy in understanding the specifics. You can find out more in my blog post and video, “Puppets on a String?” I also provide a short explanation on my Social Mood page on the “Master the Edge” site.
Health
You can see the effect of periods of colder climate on our health in the chart below:
The red arrows mark the temperature highs. They happen approximately every 1030 years and then it turns colder for several hundred years. There are smaller spikes at regular periods in between the major highs.
However, whenever there’s a downturn in the temperature, human health suffers. There isn’t necessarily a cause and effect link between climate and health. But there is between mood and health. When people are fearful or suffer from depression, their health deteriorates.
These downturns also turn turn human mood negative. Civilizations tend to crumble and the economy takes a big dive. You can see my blog post on this subject here.
Safety
Personal safety is going to become a critical issue going forward. When people go hungry en masse, violence and anarchy break out. Large cities are going to be especially hit hard as transportation systems break down and even fresh water becomes scarce. My upcoming free webinar, entitled “Navigating the Crash” is going to address some of these issues and how to prepare for these very difficult times worldwide.
You can see the transition in the area of food with a story this weekend on NBC that featured a group helping homeowners to set up mico farms on their front lawns. Here’s a similar article in the Huffington Post. The signs of the transition we’re going through are everywhere. There was also news item this weekend on the return of doctors doing house calls. Ah, the power of cycles!
Our Monetary System
This revolution is about our monetary system. It’s a continuation of the historical fight between the growing power of moneylenders versus the financial domination of the common man. You can trace if back to Jesus upsetting the moneylenders in the Temple. His lost his life, as a result.
We have a similar class struggle today. Every major nation is now beholden to the private banking cartel of Europe (and the Federal Reserve in the US). It’s a contract with the devil.
These private banks create money from nothing and then charge compounding interest to countries to use that money. This is ridiculous, of course, because most of these countries can (and have done do before) create their own money at no interest, lend it to their population at low interest, and use that interest to pay for all government services and virtually wipe out the need for taxes.
This is the system that was in effect in Canada before 1974, Australia before 1991, and in the US before 1913. The tax system we have today was developed because of the need to fund these exorbitant and totally unnecessary interest charges. Now all the major G7 nations are bankrupt, the money being owed to these private bankers. I expect to see the growth of public banks again after the coming financial crash, as happening in the Great Depression. History repeats.
Traits of the Transition
Here are some of the changes you can expect as we move from the warm dry climate of the late 20th century through the current wet-cool short cusp to the cooler dryer climate of the next several hundred years (from the research of Dr. Ralph H. Wheeler):
General traits of a cold-dry period: Anarchism, financial depression, inadequate government, weak leaders, civil wars rather than international wars, mass migration, pandemics, and class revolution.
Below are some contrasting traits:
| Warm Dry Period Left Behind | Cold Dry Period We’re Entering |
|---|---|
| dictatorships (too much gov’t) | democratization (insufficient gov’t) |
| imperialism (rising national spirit) | cosmopolitanism (falling national spirit) |
| expansion/annexation | migrations/less organized invasions |
| world wars (strong vs. strong) | civil wars (strong against weak) |
| national fascism, totalitarianism | anarchy, freedom of individual |
| federal rights | individual rights |
| long reigns, good rulers (early warm) | short reigns, poor rulers |
| growth of cities | move from city to country |
| rising prices (inflation) | falling prices (deflation) |
| increase in luxuries | decrease in luxuries |
| less prostitution (early warm) | increase in prostitution, abnormal sexual behavior |
| Golden Age (early warm) | Dark Age |
| increase in religious regulation | personal orthodoxy |
| neglect of grammar | attention to grammar, lexicographers |
| abstract harmony and melody | simple melody, folks songs |
| simple, plain, dignified fashion | turns complex, ornate, elaborate |
| high birth rate to low birth rate (late warm) | low birth rate |
| learning by discovery | learning by drill |
| idealism (philosophy) | hedonism |
| manufactory expansion | agricultural expansion |
| polite comedy in literature | vulgar comedy |
| culture: aristocratic, refined, profound (early warm) | move to plebian, vulgar, superficial |
| art: emphasis on abstract form and line | complexity, ornateness, stiff, crude |
The Market
No, the US market has not topped.
The Elliott wave principle has worked every since the market has been tracked. It’s simply the cycle pattern by which the market moves. I refer to it as a mathematical representation of the mood of the herd. It will trace out a pattern to its natural end—until the negative mood outweighs the positive mood—within society as a whole, worldwide.
I’ve been consistently correct since I began posting here in early 2015 (except for one time*). I can’t understand why people think it’s going to fail now. That’s anti-cycle thinking. Cycles repeat. Once they’ve been proven to exist (repeatable at least 15 times), the whole idea is that you expect them to repeat again.
I suppose you can refuse to believe in nature’s laws, but then, I don’t know why you’re on this site, if that’s the case
* I’d called for a top at the August 20, 2015 high, but when the first index reached a new high in mid July of this year, I reversed my call and declared that all indices would need to reach a new high (NYSE is the laggard). Right now, the key indices are below that previous high, but I’m calling for a little less than a seven percent rise above the previous high to cap this current ending diagonal pattern.
Looks like we’ll have yet another “surprise” this week (although not a surprise to me). The reason—a three wave countertrend move.
Here’s a chart from this week showing a three wave rally with my prediction for a complete retrace (while others were adamant that we’re heading up):
Three Waves Retrace
Posted Friday morning, October 14: Above is the 15 minute chart for ES. I thought I’d write about this morning’s rally to give you an idea of what I’m looking for in determining whether this is motive (heading much higher in a new, major wave rally) or corrective (destined to fail).
The important wave here is the first one, the blue A wave. It’s in three waves. It’s a zigzag (5-3-5), meaning that if you drilled down, you’d be able to count 5 waves in the a and c waves of that blue A wave. Once you have a first wave up in 3 waves, it doesn’t matter what follows, because the rule is that it’s eventually going to retrace.
The blue C wave follows and it’s in 5 waves. If this wave had been the first wave, then we’d be looking for a 62% retrace and once we’d seen that, we’d know we’re going up a lot further. BUT the 3 waver in the blue A wave tells us we’re not.
Even if we’re not sure of the count of the first wave, we need to see a second wave after the first one is complete, and that second wave has to retrace 62%.
So I didn’t know the exact top on this wave this morning, but I knew it was going to turn down and completely retrace at some point. I had a target of 2141, but it exceeded it slightly.
Another point is that if ES has 3 waves, all the major indices will have 3 waves (except possible the Nasdaq, which can sometimes do its own thing).
The target on the downside is still about 2100.
Projections For the End of the Rally
Above is the daily chart of ES (emini SPX futures). We’ve been in this fourth wave of the ending diagonal for 8 weeks. The second wave took 2 months plus a week, so the fourth wave should be nearing an end.
Usually the second and fourth waves in motive waves will be of similar magnitude (the fourth wave a bit longer) but in an ending diagonal, the waves get smaller as they move towards the termination, which is a fifth wave up to a new high, with a “throw-over” above the upper trendline. Expect the fourth wave to be slightly shorter in time.
Ending diagonals are triangles but they’re also part of motive waves. In fact, they’re the only triangle fitting under the banner of motive waves (as opposed to corrective waves). Ending diagonals are always the ending wave of the pattern.
As per my chart of the “Three Wave Retrace” pattern, the pattern down is also in 3 waves and will have to retrace back up to the top.
Summary: This is the final fourth wave dip before the final fifth wave and the top of the largest bubble in history. I expect a little more downside before we turn up again to head for a new all time high.
___________________________
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peter,
i have my pitchfork and some tar and feathers ready for the cusp and rollover. there is no way i am letting those sclerotic corrupt soulless thieves of the old system get a free pass!! its time for some old fashioned justice and payback!!
Arrrugggh……..Grrrr……..!
LOL!
As always, a wonderful read on a Sunday evening! Keep up the great work!
Thanks, Johan. 🙂
Hi Peter Temple,
Worldcyclesinstitute.com is the most interesting site in the world! I especially appreciate your multi century perspective and nuanced insight into current events. Go Elliot Wave!
Thanks, Valley!
Thank-you Peter for all your hard work, you are over the top. Please keep on keeping on as you are keeping me on track for my investing and prepping. I feel more confident in my trades following your predictions. I would like to know why gold is going to fall so much in the future; is this just part of the deflation scenario??
don,
The easy answer is that in Elliott wave theory, a correction always reverts back to the previous 4th wave of one lessor degree. That happens to be at about $700. It will go there in three waves. We’ve wave A, and after a 62% correction, we’ll head up in wave B.
If you want a reason that pulls from financial reality, yes, it’s deflation that’s the culprit and the value of the US dollar. In an inflationary environment, banks are creating more money through the creation of low cost (almost free) credit and they’re finding willing borrowers. More money in the system (in the economy) deflates the value of the dollar and inflates prices. Gold is priced in US dollars, so as a commodity, it rises in price due to the value of the dollar decreasing.
In a deflationary environment, banks don’t lend because they’re afraid to lend, borrowers don’t borrow because they’re afraid of either asset prices collapsing, or in the case of business, of not getting a return on the investment. In the current case, you also have private bankers sucking huge amounts of money out of the economy (in the case of the US, almost $20 trillion, 80% or so in interest), which drastically lowers the velocity of money, or simply put, the amount of money in the economy. People start to pull back and hoard it as well. The result is that the scarcity drives the value of money up and prices of everything else down, including commodities like gold.
That’s a simplistic look at the underlying dynamics. The problem, of course, is all that interest being pulled out of the economy and going to private bankers. “Predatory” is a nice word for the actions of the banksters. Hope this helps. Still working on the book with a fuller explanation. In the meantime, you can purchase Web of Debt, listed on my books page on the site.
don,
And thanks for the kind words.
Ditto
Kent,
ditto … lol. 🙂
Great post peter !!!
Andre
Venus is an evening star.
On March 18 2017, Venus passes Mercury as the sun’s closest planet emerges from its superior conjunction. During these times, Mercury is more difficult to see because it is not as bright as when it is closer to our planet. This event may require binoculars to see Mercury. The sky is very bright and Venus is just 7 days before its inferior conjunction and its reappearance in the morning sky.
Thanks Joe.
We are presently in what is termed a ” Venus Bear Market”
it is also a 20 month cycle .
The superior conjunction with mercury on march 18 2017
is where we get the ” Venus Bull Market ”
A Down market with in a Venus bull Market means when the Venus
bear comes it will get ugly .
An up market during a Venus Bear cycle means when the Venus Bull comes
you get a Strong bull market .
this cycle doesn’t invert .
This is only 1 of the bearish cycles we are presently in.
Oct 20th-24th will be important for me
and i favor it as a high yet at this moment i m going to remain neutral
for a few days and adjust my thinking accordingly .
Peters wave count has merit and i respect it and peter
i really do appreciate the work you put in .
Todays post was very good .
Joe
type in SPY as a symbol and see where the maximum pain sits
for the options expiry oct 21 .
http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/
Thanks for the site reference, Joe.
DEFINITION of ‘Max Pain ‘
The point at which options expire worthless. The term, max pain, stems from the Maximum Pain theory, which states that most traders who buy and hold options contracts until expiration will lose money. According to the theory, this is due to the tendency for the price of a underlying stock to gravitate towards its “maximum pain strike price” – the price where the greatest number of options (in dollar value) will expire worthless.
BREAKING DOWN ‘Max Pain ‘
About 60% of options are traded out, 30% of options expire worthless and 10% of options are exercised. Max pain is the point where option owners feel “maximum pain,” or will stand to lose the most money. Options sellers, on the other hand, may stand to reap the most reward. The Maximum Pain theory is controversial, and there is disagreement regarding if the tendency for the underlying stock’s price to gravitate to the maximum pain strike price is by chance, or by some sort of market manipulation.
There is no means of adding comments in the latest traders gold post Peter. Think you may have missed something on the post….
Q,
Thanks! Fixed now.
omg, two cups of coffee isn’t doing it this morning – i need an ‘ANDRE’ fix to kick it up a few notches!! alas, methinks he is traveling today….
Hi Valley,
How is your PALS system looking this week.
Bill
Hi Bill,
Phase: negative all week
Distance: negative all week
Declination: very positive all week
Seasonals: very positive
Planets: post Uranus opposition may have negative effect for one to three weeks
Summary: I am bullish this week due to pre holiday seasonal effect mainly.
Valley, thank you for your sharing. Why pre holiday seasonal effect makes it bullish?
From October lows until end of October often has major rallies as a set up for the US holiday shopping season.
Thank you for your explanation.
I’m a little confused looking for an October holiday that this week precedes, Valley…
Referring to the tendency of consumers to begin making purchases in late October and into November related to US Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years. Consumer items, durables, vacations, and travel.
The market looked more corrective than impulsive today. By looking at the candlestick formation and structure one would be inclined to believe that up is the next move. However until the S&P closes above its 8 and 21 EMA and while still under its 50 on the daily time-frame I have to remain bearish but cautious for the reversal.
Last week I had mentioned 2105 as a possible reversal point and that coincides with Peter and the daily 200 EMA plus it is 100% of the A leg.
But we have dropped below the up-trend line from the Feb. low I am not ruling out that we might see a nasty sell-off this week.. I am leaning way more Bearish at this stage until S&P proves me wrong..
Great post Peter much appreciated!
Tomorrow we turn down in a multimonth cycle. 11/16-18 is a major date to test so likely the second top.
Andre,
Is the waterfall decline comming after this second top and what is your next turn date?
Thanks.
I expect early december but have to work on this some more. Have been out a few days so have to catch up.
But this turn is the final turn heading into a march 2017 low.
Thanks,
I m looking forward:
With some some imagination this is a nice link
http://www.safehaven.com/article/42783/danger-will-robinson-crash-dead-ahead
Thanks, John
energy chart attached
https://s18.postimg.org/w0mklalqx/Oct_13_to_Nov_13_energy_chart.gif
thanks tom! you are awesome for sharing!
Thank you Tom. Very much appreciated for sharing your outstanding energy charts ! All the best.
Yes! Please keep posting!
Thank you Sir.
Andre’,
Thank You for the update!
Andre,
We are right at resistance SPX 2150ish.
Looks like a major flush is getting ready to start.. Good call…
SPX below 2125 should bring a major dump.. @ 2144 right now..
tomorrow is the 3rd debate. i am hoping Trump takes his size 12 shoe with foot inside and delivers a horrendous “KICK” right in her ‘hillary clinton”!!! the corruption of this mafia family knows NO BOUNDS!!!
In that regard, hope you’ve seen the dirty tricks video: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-18/massive-voter-fraud-exposed-project-veritas-part-2-weve-been-busing-people-around-50
There are now two videos here making news: the first one on the dirty tricks at Trump rallies and the second about voter fraud. All linking to Clinton and the DNC.
peter,
absolutely incredible!! i am stunned at the vast and true extent of the criminality . wow…thank you so much!
combine this work, with the wikileaks showing MSM collusion with the clinton campaign, to charity fraud, to the compromising of the FBI/DOJ to creating fake activist agitation, to stealing votes – like i said “POW – RIGHT IN THE HILLARY CLINTON”
James O’Keefe has some baggage of his own…always evaluate the source…?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O%27Keefe
rotrot
a pathology of corruption requires “more” than one data point. wikileaks shows clearly there is a pathology of corruption by this criminal cabal of politicians.
so o’keefe represents only one point, and funny that the star of his videos, bob creamer, has resigned from his positions, oh and then there is this fact below. so the bigger picture must be the basis to believe ability for o’keefe, and the bigger picture suggests ‘this’ work is valid.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-18/robert-creamer
corruption is often times elusive and difficult to pin down…however, in some instances corruption is easy to identify and prove…the approach ‘if there is smoke there must be fire’ is fraught with problems…opinions or agendas are not facts…one should always evaluate the ‘source’ before determining credibility…O’Keefe is a criminal…did he violate any state or federal laws while making the video with audio?
From my neck of the woods (television and advertising): perception is reality.
“criminality”
“fraud”
“corruption”
“criminal cabal”
proving the above requires more than perception…
No, my point is related to the overall message and how it’s perceived. If the message gets out, it doesn’t much matter about the background and the criminality in getting there. In other words in their minds, the end justifies the means. It may or may not be true, and there may be criminality involved, but perception in terms of the message will prove to be reality in the minds of those who see/hear it.
Much as is going on with boy talk. It don’t think it’s much more than that, but the media has done a really good job of making is seem much worse.
the presidential campaign is sickening…name calling and finger pointing…there are real issues confronting the USA (and the rest of the world)…we need a real leader!
Regardless of who you support .
We Must all vote !!!!!!
To me trump is about exposing the corruption in government
and so far that is exactly what we are seeing .
The next part is will we see a fair election ?
one thing i have noticed through it this election
is we hear one thing and see the opposite.
Examples :
The republicans made a big deal about honoring who ever
became the nominee yet as we see , none of them have lived
up to that pledge .
the democrats sat back and watched the republicans and it looked as if
the republicans were going to deny trump as the nominee .
yet the republicans allowed our vote to go through and trump is the nominee.
that said the democrats denied Bernie sanders and conspired against him
for Hillary Clinton.
NOW Trump is saying the election is rigged and we are seeing voter fraud ?
yet the democrats are saying that Putin is helping to rig the election by hacking
into the emails of the DNC.
So i ask myself, what if trump actually wins ?
will the Democrats claim it is a rigged election ?
if so then everything they are saying now about how it is a fair election
will be proven to be a lie.
will the congress then pick the next president ?
its obvious to me that both the RNC and the DNC are working in Hillary’s favor .
Neither one wants trump to take their respective parties away ( drunken power )
If we get anything close to this kind of BS from this election it is obvious
the stock market will drop ( and the cycles fit for a drop )
Come January they will have the mess settled out and looking at the cycles
i m guessing the people somewhat except the outcome of who we actually
get as a president .
then its the congress and the senate where people say the hell with all of you .
No doubt this is a set up for civil war or at the least some very upset citizens
who finally wake up and realize their glass bubble view has been broken .
It doesn’t matter if Trump actually gets into the white house because the corruption has been exposed, we still have lots of people in denial who think
government is good and all the Hillary news is nonsense .
I try to avoid talking politics because people have strong views and i find no use
it debating who is better or who is worse .
on face value alone, i have no respect of either of them and i haven’t for a very long time .
I do think though that Trump has his heart in the right place on this .
The final outcome of this as i see it .
If trump wins the vote they deny him the presidency
if Hillary wins the vote, everyone who believes in her will think its Clinton
part 3 and they will dream of the roaring 90’s , oh what a let down those people have coming .
If trump actually gets into the white house ?
well consider it one of Donald’s best sellers ( he has a knack for having a best seller at the peak ) and he will take the USA through bankruptcy at the bottom .
either way its somewhat poetic .
so who do we get ?
Paul Ryan or Joe Biden ?
I have no idea but it doesn’t look like this will be over on Nov 8th-9th
Option expiry is only a couple days away .
Jan 20 low April 20 high July 20 high next is Oct 20
end of qtr plus 20 days also all 91-92 calendar days apart .
call it a quarterly Low then Quarterly high to high to high .
and its option expiry
all those hedges are now out of the market .
Its time to look out into January – March .
I m right with Andre on this .
Joe
Hi Joe,
What is your next low point after this high and before the minor high on Nov 7.?
Thanks John.
Monthly Transports
The Bearish take
November is the monthly Turn .
http://imgur.com/a/V4QQv
if this is true and it comes out
oh my
https://youtu.be/gEM7L42x2xc
Does anyone else see a bearish triangle on the 1 hour ES chart? Looks like we are finishing up the E wave this morning. A wave completed last Friday, B wave completed monday, C wave completed Yesterday, D wave completed this morning.
ted,
yes i see what you see on the one hour. i would call it a bearish pennant formation but your call is spot on.
http://invst.ly/2kst3
Updated Triangle
http://invst.ly/2kzy0
THis is SPX rather than ES like earlier
I see it too.. If we can get below 2143 we might have started the new leg to the downside..
As earlier post suggested, I was (am) bullish this week due to seasonals, and earnings report “band wagon”. PALS is bullish next week (Phase, post FM; distance neutral; declination very bullish until mid next week; seasonals, most bullish of year). So I will maintain a bullish stance until mid next week. Election “could” act as a price magnet to 2300 or above.
Guess that’s what makes a market.. The technical outlook right now is saying something totally different. Short term the direction is down as it reads on the close. Of course it can change but if we start breaking below 2132 tomorrow I would be cautious and below 2124.41 Ka-boom… Good luck..
Thanks, Jody! Appreciate your technical info. =)
Above 2160 I will be bullish:)… always good to have 2 plans… Thx Valley
ECB Meeting tomorrow (Thursday)
posting the link to the video by Clif High of Half Past Human does not constitute an endorsement…having said that, some of you might find the video entertaining…?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC85wkVFgh4&feature=youtu.be&a
Entertaining? How about idiotic? Debt bubble, $ collapse – sounds like a gold bug in a geodesic dome.
sad to see the chat mucked up with weird political views, thought we were watching cycles and planets not being pulled in by posturing and bad actors
whitemare,
so politics in fact ARE an important part of cycles, and planet alignments. Politics are an integrated part of Elliott wave and its gauging of social mood. to disengage from this very human process – as politics being somehow “outside” and “unworthy” of cycle inclusion – would be a disservice to the understanding of cycles.
The video was awesome! If you look all over social media, including LinkedIn. Most people do believe Hillary is untrustworthy and not fit and Trump will be our next President. The media and polls have it wrong.
World elections are fasinating now. Angela Merkel’s party smacked down. Same for Brexit, opposite of what polls had shown. Same thing last year and this with Netanyahu in Israel. Ditto with Columbian peace vote. Bernie’s strong showing despite DNC sabotaging campaign..
Peter, what if the leg up from the February lows to mid-august high ( a three wave structure) was only wave A of the final ABCDE ending diagonal and we are now in wave B down that could go much lower than 2100 into late October. Then we will have waves C, D and E to finish wave 5 into mid next year. Does it make sense?
Daniel Bongino…standup guy who has a unique, personal perspective on one of the Presidential candidates…
https://twitter.com/dbongino/with_replies
My Last political post ( or related to politics )
when Kennedy was assassinated the stock market had a slight
dip then went higher .
i will never make trading decisions based on politics .
i do not support Hillary yet if you take the data on this election
at face value ( i know it may be rigged polling ) but if you take the
data at face value then trump will lose .
i do not trust anything coming out of the news anymore because it is
so one sided towards Hillary is good and trump is bad that its obvious
the bias .If Hillary wins we should see business as usual and her polices
will be more restrictive , higher taxes , raising the minimum wage will
accelerate the trend where fast food companies will replace employees
with machines ( kiosks at the front where you order your food )
yet this will still happen no matter who is elected .
the debt in the USA is not sustainable . they call for a balanced budget
yet that does not stop the debt from rising . if you pay the minimum payment your credit card bill you would have a balanced budget yet your debt would continue to rise, even under bill Clinton the debt rose .
The problem i see with this election is we are in a bearish cycle and there is 2 cycle peaks im watching . The first one being Oct 24th and the 2nd one being Nov 7th . The Nov 7th date is forecast to be a lower high . it is for this reason
i feel the election will be challenged in some way .
The truth though i don’t know until we actually see the vote .
My bias is that we will not have a clear winner come Nov 9th ( the day after the vote )
If i take the polling data at face value i have no solid case to claim a trump win .
If i look at the market/economy from a socioeconomic view id say that for the past 17 years social mood has been increasingly turning negative and this negative bias is what is leading us down this road towards deflation .
if i look at the demographics id say that the baby boomers who are now retiring
are going to drain social security as well as put pressure on government as well as private pensions. in order to delay their demise we will see more adjustments which will only push social mood more negative and lead us in the direction of deflation . if i look at the sunspot cycle and compare the historical trends of the past to today then i see the GDP of the USA declining which again pushes into a deflationary environment .
When i talk with my kids, now 27 and 28 years old, what i hear is , they cant wait until their generation is in control . The younger generation in general ( not my kids but their generation) has a socialist bias and if you think about it you can kind of see why. They have grown up for the most part with 1 parent , many don’t know their father or he wasn’t really their for them. Their mother had to work in order to pay the bills which left them alone for many hours of the day .
This is why the gangs ( the only family the kids had in inner cities )
To take it further , we have many socialistic countries and the population of the USA is filled with those who have come from foreign countries . To them they cant understand why we don’t provide for them better then we do.
Back in the 1920’s we had the railroads which moved products from coast to coast. Today we have the internet and in the future drones which will cut down the cost of delivering products. in the end, technology will make companies more profitable yet those profits still depend on people who have jobs and if they don’t have jobs they wont be buying anything and deflation is the end result . The Cable TV industry is another example of technology disrupting our economy . why pay for cable TV 110 per month ( cable,internet,phone ) when you can use Netflix for about 1/2 the cost ( internet, Netflix )
If you watch what the younger generation is doing today you can bet that is where the trend will be in the future.
In the bigger picture, the politicians have zero ability to really change anything .
Joe
Thanks for sharing Joe,
I guess we will see the low near the new Moon Okt 28 /31?.
W.Buffett wrote a very good piece about the economy,cycles,and transforming industries in 1999.
Almost everything he wrote back then makes sense today and we are now entering a new period 2018/2020.
The link:
http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm
I
joe,
wow, great insight, and opinion.
internal polling from the RNC out of gringrich’s office has trump “UP’ nationally by 15 points. It is indicating a landslide for trump come election – which is why clinton is throwing EVERYthing at Trump. the ‘screech ‘o meter’ press is at full blast. this is a scorched earth act of desperation.
Anyone see Andre???
you beat me to the punch harvey.
where be “ANDRE”?
I thought Andre’ was on vacation?
But if she is down 15 points. Why she is not holding more rallies events
10/19 was a strong date and the cycle is down into 11/4. But this weekend we have a lunar square and 10/22-23 are also strong. So I expect the market to put in the high on Monday and then we will see a more serious decline.
Will give you some arguments this weekend.
10/24 will be 1000 root 7 weeks from the 1966 high. 1000 = 1. And 1 is unity or God.
This could be the main reason the market is hanging on. The trend is down so once they let go it could get volatile. 11/18 is a major date to test but within a downtrend. After that a low 12/5-ish.
26 and 28 are also strong. So this will give the abc with 26 low and a high 28. Then 11/4 low.
Autumn Panics by Chris Carolan points out that the 27th and 28th day of seventh new moon month after spring equinox has a cluster of panic days in the markets. This year the 27th and 28th day of the seventh new moon month will be 10/26 and 10/27 (next Wednesday and Thursday). Given PALS is neutral on those two days, I will be in cash and if a sell off occurs will buy. Examples of 7th month 27th or 28th days were Black Tuesday of 1929 and Black Monday of 1987.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/10/21/is-the-ultimate-birthday-present-awaiting-hillary-clinton-on-october-the-26th/
Thanks Andre….
Andre
i agree with you yet from a different perspective .
i have oct 24 a high then down into Nov 1st then a bounce
into nov 7th .
the seasonal bias is up from Nov 7 into Jan 16th .
that seasonal bias failed last year . i think that’s the 2nd or 3rd failure
since around 1985 . i m going from memory so don’t quote me .
i expect this year to fail to .
Luri,
i think the elections is a pretty obvious date to pay attention to .
only a couple weeks to go and we will know the answer .
i think Andre is dead on in his thoughts yet i base it on my own work .
it is very hard to not to jump in on the short side yet another options expiry is upon us and i tend to avoid them because its all about position squaring .
i still feel that a close on the cash Dow below 18125 is a bearish close .
this market may not have much if any bounce .
the problem i see and it concerns me is this .
this market is oversold but not extremely oversold . what i am seeing
is one of the longest oversold readings over the past several years .
its just hanging there ( the oversold reading ) yet its not an extreme reading by any means . i typically see 1 extreme oversold reading each year .
the august 2015 and Jan Feb 2016 readings hit the extremes yet the readings right now do have room to go to go further and i think that is what we will see .
my extreme downside closing target has 3 swing low targets .
the first being the June low at a close of 17140 , if this is seen then a bounce back towards 18000-18086 would be expected ( this implies 18000-18086 is support right now ) then the next drop would be the Feb lows on a closing basis at 15560
then another bounce ( and this is where the pattern i m following tends to fail if its going to ) from that bounce we would see another drop which targets
10,655 on a closing basis . so the bearish potential is huge and the only reason i can even consider that target ( which would complete the pattern is if trump wins the vote yet the elites attempt to deny him the presidency. if you watched the elections close enough you should have noticed these past 2 weeks Hillary stating more and more that Russia is the problem with the dnc hacks ,This is total bs but it fits with the thoughts i stated before about how we are told one thing yet observe the opposite . Trump is claiming the elections are rigged yet Hillary and co are claiming they are not and yet they go on to say Putin and Russia and hacking the dnc to help trump ( like it even matters how the information is coming out ). that 10655 level would be the extreme low as i see it
and its a long ways down from 18000 . so it would have to be something surrounding a trump win yet the elites creating some extreme crap to deny him for that target to be hit .
i m sitting on 40 % cash .
Late 2017 into mid 2018 i still favor a a major top despite my 10655 cash Dow
downside potential . this peak in late 2017-mid 2018 would either be a B wave
or new all time highs . after that i m looking for massive deflation .
The market must prove itself with each leg and the 2 main supports
are the June lows ( on a closing basis ) and the Jan Feb lows ( on a closing basis)
Another thing that bugs me ( and peters wave count fits into this )
rarely does the market let you get out when a down trend begins .
this market has been hanging for a long time and that is not the norm which
keeps peters count valid ( also the oversold readings ) in a bear market the indicators will do you no good whatsoever . indicators are great in a bull market yet terrible in a bear market , same thing if your using fundamentals or valuation models these are really only bull market tools .
Bear markets are pure fear .
if any of you has ever felt that fear of loss you should remember it and when the bear market comes use that understanding of fear to understand what is going on in the minds of those who are long stocks . they just sell regardless in order to stop the pain . most extreme stock market declines last about 60-90 trading days .
Joe,
A high 10/24-25 is most likely, I have a tidal inversion 10/25, so this may pull the high into Monday evening or even Tuesday. But I am convinced 11/4-8 is a low.
10/28 very strong date that must be tested. And then the third leg down into early november,
Just my thoughts.
Good stuff Joe, good stuff!
Cheers,
W
Last weekend (10/15-17) was a strong cluster with long term implications. The only reason the market didn’t move is the 1000 root 7 week cycle I talked about yesterday. This cycle is almost 51 years or 3 times 17.
So basically we are stuck between 10/15 and 10/24,
The G20 on march 2009 turned 9/4. This was also the venus indicator high. The 85 year from 1929 turned October 2014, causing the decline. The 34 from 1982 was up into 8/12/16. The Jupiter indicator was up into 8/17, Those cycle are all down for many months or more.
17 months from the may high gave 10/16 and signifies the importance of that weekend.
If this analysis is correct, it could mean this weekend is the most pivotal we have seen in years as everything else is already down. This could explain why the market has been quiet for months. It also tells us we are very close to the start of a Multi year downtrend.
The link below confirms my expectations as Earth is heading for an ice age, as Peter has been telling us for so long.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/723481/Earth-ICE-AGE-big-freeze-solar-activity
andre –
i have only one word to say – “whuuuuuaaaattt???” lol…
so if i understand your post – there is a confluence of many different and individual cycles that are pulling down as of 10/24? and that the sideways action in price was due to the influence of a small time frame 7 week cycle that was moving counter cycle.
so realignment to the downside points to 10/24.
did i get that remotely correct?
question – why did that 7 week cycle exert so much influence over all other ones? is there a cycle of “influence” that rotates ‘dominance’ between all individual cycles? –
Luri,
You understand correctly. 10/24 is a major turn. Some root numbers are vibrational : 2,3,5 and 7. Those are very special.
From 10/11/2007 til 5/20/2015 was 150 root 7 weeks. (exactly).
Recently I explained how the 50 year cycle can be split in two ways: 25/25 and 34/16. In an uptrend the 34 is up and the 17 is down.
This same structure we see within 50/51 months. That is why the oct 2007 – march 2009 was just 17 months; the 85 and 34 year cycle were stil up.
In 2014 the 85 from 1929 turned and this reversed the 34/16 sequence. So now we see 17 months up and 34 month down until the sequence shifts again.
We often see in cycles that when a long cycle turns, a shorter cycle turns the other way. May 2015 was a long term high. SO the 17 wanted up into october 2016. But after 17 comes 34. So I expect a major low mid 2019.
I know some people expect a high in 2018. That may be, but it should be a lower high if my theory is right.
andre,
what i ‘really’ want to know is “WHEN OH WHEN” are we going to see a LOWER low!! i am burned out on all the [highs, lower highs, new highs] …when do we see a lower low?? lower low from say the 3/6/09 low???
why is your cycles never telling us the lower lows?? :-))
Luri,
Let me think about that. TPV technique allows to calculate prices if you have the time, Let me work on that,
Andre
very interesting thoughts in your last post .
i think you are correct about an important low in 2019 .
but i don’t think it will be as important as the lows in 2021-2023
ill explain .
This comes from the work of the late George Lindsay .
From a major top you look out 12 yrs 3 months to 12 yrs 8 months
for an important low .
the march 2000 and Aug 2000 highs corresponded to the NASDAQ
spx and nya index’s . im keeping it simple yet i would normally use the exact
dates , march 2000 plus 12 yrs 8 months was Nov 2012 . Aug 2000 plus 12 yrs 3 months was Nov 2012 . so for me it was right after the election in 2012 where
we saw the cycle low ( by this method ) from the year 2000 highs .
looking at gann’s work you look for a 10 yr high to high as well as a 5 yr low to high as well as a 5 yr high to low as well as a 10 yr low to low .
Oct 2007 plus 10 yrs is Oct 2017 , 5 yrs from Nov 2012 is Nov 2017 . so a high
in that time frame fits . that said there are other cycles which run into the yr 2018
yet ill leave that for another day .
the yr 2019 which is the subject would be based on 12 yrs 3 months to 12 yrs 8 months from the Oct 2007 top ( you can see my dilemma ).
by some measures i can state the peak was in July 2007 yet i cant confirm it today.
so i run the range in time . Oct 2007 plus 12 yrs 3 months is January 2020
and Oct 2007 plus 12 yrs 8 months July 2020 . If i was to use July it would be
Oct 2019 to the widest point of July 2020 . What id expect from this low would be a minimum 7 month rally .
The high in the yr 2018 should correspond with mars in opposition to Uranus
and it is also a bennner business cycle peak
while it very well could be a lower high . in my work it will be a very important
high . My bias until i see the actual market action is that it will be an all time high
yet the market will prove that in the future so im not going to speculate at this point . I live in southern Oregon . here is something else i have observed with real estate and have personally gained from this twice, once from luck once because i was aware of it . whether it works again we will see .
The people of California tend to move up the coast to as far as northern Washington state , Maybe into Canada but i cant say . what they do is sell their houses in California and buy cheaper houses and this movement creates a mini
housing bubble so to speak ( the 2005-2006 peak was an extreme ) .
all i do is add 11 yrs to the peaks . 1988 was a housing boom in the Seattle area
where i noticed it the first time yet wasn’t really aware of it , the 2007 melt down in housing ( nation wide if not world wide ) . the actual housing closing peak
was in the July 2006, since housing tends to have its highest volume and price in the august time frame it makes sense to look for a seasonal high around that month. this year in the Seattle area price is very high yet the volume has diverged which is implying the Seattle area housing may have peaked .
( just the data here ) adding 11 yrs to the 2006 peak would be 2017 for an important high . What i have not seen yet though is any movement from people in California moving up the coast . Cycles work until they don’t yet i tend to look for all the variables before making trading decisions .
The worst type of recessions have always included real estate , the drop from 2000-2002 was the NASDAQ for the most part and real estate held up,
the drop from 2007 to 2009 included everything . The next decline will probably be a different mix and the sector which has the most extreme maybe be government bonds ? I would expect commodities in general to hold up and the grains/food products would be the next boom.
My focus next year will be trying to pin point all of this .
Joe
another tid bit of info
had you bought a house in the year 2000 and also bought stocks
in the year 2009 you would have lost money on stocks yet would have had a very slight gain in real estate . The reason people lose money whether it be stocks or real-estate is usually tied to leverage . Debt is always the problem .
in the 1930’s those who survived usually managed their debt . those who owned real estate ( farming ) allowed people to live in the land in exchange for work .
they shared in the profits in some ways . The land owner was able to keep their land . i ve known people who did exactly that . On the other side of this , there were those in banking or friends of bankers back then who were able to pick the land they wanted and made friendly deals to take the land off the books .
Those days are kind of gone for the most part but in some cases still exist.
One of the major issues coming out of the bottom in the 2009-2011 cycle low in real estate was trying to find out who actually owned the mortgage .
everything is packaged now , so does the bank who collects your payment really own the debt or is it a fund company who bought the packaged mortgages own the debt . The paperwork was very disorganized and whether they actually figured that out yet remains to be seen.
Joe,
I really appreciate you are thinking with me. I just have my own cycle structure,
My G20 gives a low 2023-2024. And I think a final low in 2032 (1932+100) is feasable.
So I agree there will be deeper lows beyond 2019. Just thought that for now it should be enough to know we go down 34 months. The cycle structure (5 waves) into mid 2019 could be more important for trading.
I will study your response some more tomorrow.
Again; thanks.
Real Estate Turning Down – Martin Armstrong, September 9, 2016
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-turning-down/
Food for thought
Back in 1996 i was introduced to Elliot wave theory .
I bought into the entire vision as described by Robert Prechter .
in 2000 i bought $35,000 worth of put options with a DEC 2004 expiry .
i didn’t really know or understand what i was doing i only knew
i was bearish and based on Prechter the Dow was going to at least
3700 yet he said it should go below 1000.
in May 2002 i bought more put options with a Nov 2002 expiry .
on the lows in oct 2002 i covered the nov put options happy
to take that profit yet still convinced the market was going lower
i held those options with the 2004 expiry . I remember the broker
saying Joe you have a Lot of money sitting here and yet i ignored him
feeling as if i was a genius . To this day i do not know how much
that ” a lot of money ” was . in 2003 i covered some of those put options
as prechter was stating the market was going lower still .
those options expired worthless and i began doing my own research
to understand why he/ i was wrong .
To add to this , in the feb to march 2000 time frame i was shorting the NASDAQ
100 futures daily trying to sell the top ( its an ego thing to do this )
those attempts at position trading were producing break even trades
yet the swings were plus $10,000 then break even stop out .
the very day i got onto a plane to fly to Alaska and go to work i bought
3 put options on the qqq because i would be away and was not about to lose
10’s of thousands by not being able to watch the market .
while i was getting the plane the NASDAQ peaked and never looked back .
near the april lows i sold those out of the money qqq puts with in days of expiry
for 10 bucks each , had i not gone to work and had sold the NASDAQ 100 futures
the profit would have been 180,000 gain ( yes if i wouda coulda ect ) .
Today i don’t trade this way .
I think if everyone would do this simple thing they would find their trading much more profitable .
a few rules to live by .
Never let a profitable trade become a loss .
Never become so convinced you are right that you overlook the fact
that you have huge gains already .
Each year strive to make a set amount of profit and keep that
goal in mind the entire year .
Its not about what you could have made nor about getting the exact
high or low but getting the trend right .
if you can get 60 % or better of the move you are doing very well .
if you chip away at it you will find you can create a consistent
profit yet not every trade will work out .
The bottom line is this :
At the end of each year you should show a profit which is competitive
against the markets move and then some .
example , if the market is flat on the year and your up 10 % you did
good . if you want 5,000% you will find yourself disappointed .
100 % gain is attainable yet you wont see it every single year .
The market will swing from up to down and it doesn’t matter
if you miss the train , their will be another train leaving the station
if the next day or week or hour . you will always be able to trade
so make each trade count as best you can and live with what the
market gives you .
we are never right is a good rule to live by and understand .
the market is always right and when we figure out the market
then our trades will work , when we fight the market trying to
prove it wrong we will lose money every single time .
pick your time frame to which you want to trade in .
10 day swing ? 10 minute swing ? or 5 yr swing ?
each of these choices leave you with variable options
to trade with .
i would not buy a 5 yr option yet i would buy a stock if i had
a 5 yr point of view .
i would not buy an option if i was looking for an intra day move .
For me i like the 10 day swing as well as a 60 day or 90 day swing .
its a mix of stocks, options and futures .
each vehicle has its fit.
i will never do an option spread even though i do understand how they work .
they do not fit into my trading style .
i like to make directional trades and because of this alone timing is important.
many people make money with options spreads as well as selling calls or puts .
these types of trading are high risk low reward yet are more consistent them many realize. that said i don’t like them .
Andre has explained a lot of his work but for those of you who are in need
of him really need to begin to put the pieces together of what he is saying .
its very valuable information for sure
we must all manage our own money and depend on no one at the end of the day
some will be accurate for months before a failure
others will be accurate for a day then have a string of failures .
The larger the point of view the better the chance of success .
The wave count matters a lot !
indicators are extremely helpful
the internals matter ( volume, advance decline line etc)
timing is also extremely helpful
you need all 4 to understand the market .
Joe
Andre
i have always respected your work .
i also love your passion for it and because i see your passion
i know you have done and continue to do research .
your research is i place i have not dug into and because of you
i intend to research it much more in depth in the future .
each year i take on something new in terms of market timing
and i try to correlate it all as best i can .
Your work is going to be where i go next yet i will have to wait
until next year to fully go there.
My comments above are in no way a disrespect for you in anyway .
I feel that this message board peter has created has many talented people
and i fully respect all points of view .
i feel that we all can learn from each other and if we all work together
we can all if we have to , go our separate ways and still survive.
its the old saying .
give a man a fish he can eat for a day , teach him to fish he can eat for the rest of his life .
that was the point of what i said above .
i have not gone past the years 2023-2026 so i am not even going to attempt
to say anything beyond those years at this point
Retrot
i m aware of martin Armstrong view on real estate, thanks for the post .
i would not tell anyone to buy real estate at this time . my personal
take for me as a home owner is that of my house being a consumption item
and not an investment . you buy a car it depreciates , houses wear out and need repairs ( depreciates ) , we spend money on food , beer ( some people ) entertainment etc . a house should be viewed in similar manner.
If you consume your house as you do your car or food etc then value does not matter. that’s my overall point of view .
Joe
we live in an oceanfront town in southern New England…my wife is a real estate broker in our town…on a daily basis she sends out email updates on listings, sales, price increases/reductions, etc…during the spring and summer of 2015 there was a significant increase in the number of million dollar plus houses that came on the market…the money ‘players’ gobbled the houses up…however, much has changed during the last year…currently, there are a number of million dollar plus houses on the market that just sit there…the only houses that are moving are priced in the six hundred thousand dollar price range or less (not many of those)…?
Peter,Andre, Luri and Joe,
I just wanted to take a moment and thank all four of you and all the other contributors here for some of the most insightful market cycle commentary I have read in the nearly 40 years I have been a trader. Kudos to you all and keep up the good work. It is all so important to understanding the true nature of markets and what it means to us economically , socially and intellectually.
Thanks once again,
Harvey
wow, harvey – your praise has made me “blush” profusely – although i graciously “accept” this award on behalf of the cast and crew, and the great writers, and directors, and of course THE FRENCH!.
i am unsure how the heck THE FRENCH got in there – but they have a way of showing up when you really just want to be left alone!
…..in short harvey, you are too kind, although i think i am more of the comedy element here, with andre/peter/joe being the real brains behind the scenes. Whatever you do, don’t let them “know” that they are “the brains” – in fear of their heads inordinately swelling up to hot air balloon size, in turn cutting off the crucial blood supply to their overall life support system.
..as a very far aside [and this has no real market or cycle bearing], i was perusing through the ‘non pedesta’ wiki leak dump, and i found a .pdf zip of a formerly ‘secret’ instructional rosicrucian text.
so being the permanently “nosey” neighbor – i read it. it was an ancient “training” manual on how to train and perfect yourself in the art of using ‘telepathy’ through mental projections into the cosmic consciousness. I found it “pre -cell phone” ‘fascinating’. truly.
so andre, if you start hearing stuff in your head in the middle of the night – its me – luri – and i am practicing. :-))
I had a restless sleep. Been wondering what that was, Now I know, Please stop or I’ll send a killer vibration your way 😉
Thank you Harvey
Your thoughts as well as a house i looked at earlier today
caused me to update my case shiller data on real estate
nation wide in the USA
the 2016 data is Jan to July /7 since the year is not out .
The Data Though is cause for concern for next year .
That is an example of internals VS Price .
In real estate it is a bit more simple than the stock market
and as you can see since the data begins in 1987 nothing
works perfectly yet id still say the number of sales has dropped off
on an annual bases from last year to this year .
the 2005 sales peak gave us the 2006 price high .
i mentioned Gann earlier today and the 10 yr high to high
I would not be looking to buy a house based on this data .
obviously we all have our own view from a local perspective .
http://imgur.com/yuGnab1
A little addition to my post yesterday. The 17 month cycle turned last week. But we also have the 25 month cycle that runs into mid 2017. Once that one turns it will get more volatile (25 down with 34).
This fits nicely with lillith 120 degrees on the node in fall 2017. This should cause financial panick. See how the 25 month cycle and natural cycles converge?
To me this is proof of concept.
McHugh expects a strong rally from 11/8 into year end. Bob should read this site some more. Then he would know.
Details
I have a high for Monday and Tuesday. Then a low on Wednesday and a high Friday. Tuesday is tidal inversion. Merriman gives a CRD 25/26.
The dasha is bullish into 10/27.
So Monday my still be slow with a high and a low and the Tuesday a more significant high, This high could be more significant than the high on Friday. We’ll see. But during the week the downforce grows stronger.
Wednesday is very strong so should be a last effort bounce.
On Friday the dasha is bearish and other indicators give a high.
Both 11/4 and 11/8 are strong for a low. So 11/4 will be a low, followed by a bounce and a deeper low 11/8. Then we will rally into 11/18-ish and decline again into december.
This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave, natural cycles, and the Quantum Revolution (Great Awakening). I welcome questions or comments about any of these subjects. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.
I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, is unhelpful, or off-topic. Such comments may be removed.
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