Changes to the Free Blog
Last week, I ran a bit of an experiment in the free blog area. I shared the prediction specifics for ES, complete with entry and exit points. I alerted this group to the potential for a rise to either the 2266 or 2276 area with a subsequent CAUTION alert when it became clear the higher target was in play. I also posted the “Timing the Top” video, predicting the ultimate top.
The response I got was less than desirable (from my standpoint). As it takes me an average of five hours to create a blog post here, I’ve decided posting this level of detail, along with extensively research articles is not a good use of my time, not in this venue, at least.
The free blog area seems to be an area for people to communicate about the market, and that what I post here is of much less interest. That’s fine; it “is what it is” and far be it for me to mess with the interests of an audience.
Time is primarily the issue. My time spent here reduces my writing time, analysis, work on my EW course, and of course the book that I’ve been attempting to finish.
The other issue is trading. These are difficult markets, illustrated by the fact that so many hedge funds are going under or simply ceasing operations. I’ve learned to stay away from markets with no clear direction or at times when my concentration is not at its best.
However, after returning to trading three weeks ago, my account is up 42% using EW analysis (price cycles). I expect it to reach 100% by the end of wave four in the US indices. I trade with confidence in markets that EW analysis tells me will be lucrative. I try to stay out of the others.
I’ve attempted over the past year and half or more to help show the benefits of Elliott wave analysis here, but feel it’s being, for the most part, ignored, perhaps because it’s not understood well, or not communicated in full but, on the other hand, the tools to learn are nearby.
A good deal of what goes on in the free blog area of this site is what I refer to as “market noise.” Many years ago, when I started trading, I followed news and other events, thinking that it would enhance my trading. However, as I’ve said many times, the direction of the market is not based on news; it’s based on the mood of “the herd,” and that herd is comprised of traders and investors worldwide.
As a result, the market will only turn when the worldwide mood has shifted to the negative side. It happens in five waves, and it’s a process. Every trend happens in five waves, market-related, or not. Humans worldwide do not change their mood in a single day; the waves reflect that slow turn in the perception of market participants.
There will be no turn in this market until the balance of the mood of the market participants has turned more than fifty percent to the negative side. My little Mensa mind simply cannot fathom any other way the market will turn; it’s simply illogical that it will turn on a dime. And hence, the proven concept of five waves in any trend will not be broken. This time is not different. Thinking otherwise is “herd thinking”; it’s not contrarian thinking. And as professional traders know, contrarian thinking is what you need to have to beat the market.
About fifty years ago, when I was eighteen, I went through a battery of tests to measure personality traits, intelligence, and a host of other psychological factors. (My English, rather conservative father thought I was “nuts” because I had no interest in being a doctor or lawyer, and quit the University of Toronto after a year. I’d also spent half a year in hospital with Crohn’s disease, but that’s a much longer story for another time … lol).
I learned through those tests that my ability to mentally manipulate three dimensional objects in space (spatial awareness) was “off the charts.” A subset of this ability is pattern recognition, moreover the ability to see similarities in multiple patterns.
It’s considered such as important ability that this ability is a good part of the Mensa exam, and of course, I searched all those questions out and completed them first when I took the exam much more recently. It’s also the core of Elliott wave analysis—the foundation of this principle is pattern recognition and probability.
Learning about that ability early on has served me well. I ended up with a degree in television in 1974—a wiser choice than manipulating three dimensional human organs in space …
In my career as a professional television writer/producer/director, I excelled because I could imagine the entire sequence in my mind before I got down to the creating it. I could tell my cinematographer or videographer (as the medium changed) where to put the camera for the shot I wanted, and direct talent and lighting to get the ultimate effect I desired.
And yes, I dream in colour—major motion pictures that are truly engrossing—but thankfully, only when I’m really, really tired. (!)
However, after 35 years of commercial and corporate television, and building a couple of million dollar plus companies, it was time for another challenge.
I found trading and cycles (and the deeper work I do now) and have dedicated my life to helping others understand how the world works in that regard; how humans take advantage of fellow humans at varying degrees during the ups and downs of those cycles. It’s like clockwork, and similar events pop up at specific degrees of each repeating cycle.
My experience (over 20 thousand or so hours in the market) has proven to me that “price cycles” work much more effectively than “time cycles.” Used together, they’re highly predictive. I use time cycles to support my price analysis.
My key trading principles tend to be these:
- Trade what you see, not what you think.
- Know when to be out of the market (usually more often than in)
- Have an exit point
- Take a level of risk based on probability (and volatility)
- Limit external “noise”
As a result, for the most part, I stay away from fundamentals, or trying to guess causes of market moves; I try not to mix news with technical analysis. In my world, there is little correlation.
I don’t look at other people’s charts (or counts). I have no interest in discussions about what might happen “here” due to something happening “over there.” Staying as objective as possible has the key to successful analysis. It’s the times that I allow outside influences to affect my thinking about an Elliott wave count that I get into trouble.
I’ve also learned that I see pattern correlations that others don’t see, and that often my ability to communicate in limited time and space here is not an effective means of getting across my message.
So, I’m moving on from what to me has been a frustrating challenge. I will instead leave this blog to be what it has become.
I’m moving back to creating more video and will post these and other article on the main landing page of the site. Some will focus on the market, but most will cover topics that relate to what’s going on in the world and the role of cycles in the the events that are unfolding.
I’m not trying to be anti-social. I’m just trying to explain my philosophy and how it affects my decision to limit my exposure to what I consider “market noise.” It’s a key principle I follow that has made me a much better trader and analyst.
At the same time, I’m committed to making your experience here the best I can, keeping any personal attacks away from the site, and providing insight into what I feel is one of the most powerful tools discovered. I will continue to answer questions, but will only visit after hours on a daily basis.
I’ll continue to post charts, but will move towards past “wins” and lessons from them rather than predictive charts (with long explanations as to the expected market movement).
This weekend, however, I’m taking a “break.”
The Market This Week
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge).
We’re at the top of the B wave of an ABC 4th wave correction. The C wave down will most likely be 1.618 times the length of the A wave down.
After completing the larger fourth wave, we’ll have one more wave to go, which could be an ending diagonal as a fifth wave. The long awaited bear market is getting closer.
_____________________________
Sign up for: The Chart Show
Thursday, April 13 at 2:00 pm EST (US market time)
The Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis in real time for the US market, gold, silver, oil, major USD currency pairs, and more. You won’t find a more accurate or comprehensive market prediction anywhere for this price.
Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. You’ll also get Andy Pancholi cycle turn dates for the balance of the current month. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.
All registrants will receive the video playback of the webinar, so even if you miss it, you’ll be sent the full video replay within about an hour of its conclusion. For more information and to sign up, click here.
Thanks Peter …….Nick
Wow! I was not expecting the attached commentary! I am sure I speak for many who access this site daily…Your analysis and input has always been appreciated! Best of luck in you future endeavors! You are the best!
Well, Ed, the blog info is not going away. Rather than be hidden on a page that’s related to trading, I’m now going to post on the landing page and put the bulk of my time towards the larger story.
People here already know where things generally are going, but others who may find the site (and not this page), never see that message. My YouTube account is growing, and I need to get back to creating more video.
Couple that with the complication of attempting to get a message across about EW, and it makes more sense to me to go this route. I didn’t want people here to wonder what happened when articles showed up in other place and the content in this area changed.
I have been studying EW for only 4 years now. One night I was perplexed at what in the world the count could be. I was searching all over google images for a similar structure that might have been posted in the past to help guide me. I found 1 picture that looked exactly like what I was looking for and turns out it was the actually real time count. I looked to see who posted it and it was from you. That is how I found your site.
I find your work insightful and appreciate what you have done to help us understand EW. If people don’t appreciate your work I can totally understand your position.
You were spot on with the 2276 call last week.
Thank you Peter!
Thanks, Jody.
and for all your posts. 🙂
I can count the number of EW analysts I take seriously on two fingers Peter and you are one of them. Thanks so much for your availability to help educate the rest of us with regard the way of the waves. See ya Thursday!
Thanks, Verne.
Thanks, Peter! Great job with this site and will continue to read/view your EW commentary.
Thanks, Valley.
You are one of the gems.
I thought of this when I read your post..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T575Pbo4eWM
Peter, I echo the thoughts of Jody! Here is my e-hug to you –> Hug, hug, hug. We love you so please don’t go!
I rely on your elliot wave guru-ness and also like the target dates cited by others here so I can match it to your waves.
I confess I was hoping your weekend post would comment on Trump’s 180 degree change in US middle east meddling policy.
I’m not going anywhere. I’m just moving things around. I’m actually going to do something like that. When the market turns down, negative events happen. It’ll get worse over the next two weeks I imagine. Just wait until we top … yikes!
I m very happy with your EW forecasts so thanks for all of them.
Tom,
It looks like your original stream is still on track.
So we still can see the big low coming on Wednesday.
John.
Based on today’s action I’ve revised the stream per attached
https://s28.postimg.org/7c4veq0ct/April_10_to_14_energy_stream_prediction_revised.gif
Oke Tom thanks,
So we have to be patient the stream is not time bound.
Let’s see if we can go higher on Tuesday.
Hi Tom,
You have completely changed your plot for this week.
Could you give an idea what kind of data is your energy stream based on, please?
ditto 🙂 can you point us somewhere Tom? I love your charts but some input on what they calculate would be a life saver 🙂
chart is created by a powerful computer at a university and I have access to the data which I am sharing with this group. I can’t say more than that.
no change
just a time shift
based on yesterdays action
I hope you make a little shift backwards and the drop will be before good Friday.
Please update if you see a shift..
Thanks.
Peter
Your post was awesome 🙂
I came here to catch up and so i did read your post !
i do look at the market from the larger trend more so than
the small minor trend . i think it is in these smaller trends ( noise )
you will see your site become more active .it when the market has
not made its decision that people go in search of what is going on .
in a market with a trend however . everyone is a genius .
I appreciate the time you put into your updates !
The market has a way of giving us the data in its own time and we all
share our view of that data in hopes of as a group we all get it right .
That all said .
it bugs me that GNE moved ahead of the bombings in syria by the usa .
If you look up some of the Board members involved with that tiny
utility stock based out of new jersey. you will begin to question what they new ?
Also this tiny little company owns a lot of oil rights which border Syria and isreal
if my memory serves me. obama and the united nations just before obama
left office said that the land isreal took is no longer theirs .
That little speck of land is what i am talking about .
Its got Oil on it , and a lot .
GNE has a ton of shale oil rights in that area.
That stock put in an important low in march 2017 ( start of venus bull cycle )
i own the stock at 5.95 and i would not advise anyone to buy it .
its just a weird observation im pointing out that is leading to change my views
on what trump will actually accomplish. this to me signals Trump is not really
running the show. He may think he is but something is a miss on all of this.
i even question if assad did anything to his people .
Nuff said
Joe,
I remember your bullish nuts period this week for a certain sector. Perhaps this time it’s volatility’s turn to go nuts upside? I really think /ES April 6 overnight low should be retested during regular trading hours. If there is no firm support for 2336 then down to 3/27 low. If that low is breached too then Feb. 9 close may find support. It is really not far-fetched to see such a huge fade considering GS and JPM are now trading at February lows.
Fully agree with you Liz.
I don’t think Assad had much to do with the chemical attack – it doesn’t make sense. It’s most likely a set-up. And it’s no accident that Syria is not a BIS member and has their own monetary system.
Thanks for your posts, Joe.
Peter, I had no idea about EW until I heard your interview on TRUnews with Rick Wiles. I have been watching your posts since then. I would be considered a novice in regards to the market and all who post here. Just to say that ALL the information you share is read with great interest and your wisdom is very evident. Thank you for the time you invest in sharing your EW wisdom.
Thanks, Jeff. I have an interview coming up with Dale Pinkert (previously of FXStreet) next week and Dave DuByne (ADAPT 2030) and I are going to do a series of short videos related mostly to climate. So lots more to come. Haven’t heard from Rick in a while (my interviews with him are in the Forum).
Peter, Here’s where I’m coming from;
I’ve followed this blog for over a year or more. I’ve never commented before. Some of your other readers may be where I am at too. (so, sorry for the long post but I want to thank you!) I’m always interested in the comments but mostly interested in your wide ranging view (Dr. Wheeler’s studies about climate change to bring the pieces together?? — forget about it who else does this stuff??) I subscribed to Richard Russell for many years, then he died. I’ve been aware of Robert Prechter and Elliot Wave since about 2003. I don’t see much from him lately. I don’t claim to understand it all but the clues are overwhelming. It mostly seems to be human nature repeating in similar ways but also so much more that we are not aware of on the human dog eat dog level…. represented by phony markets. Here’s the thing; I got out in August of 2007 when the Bear Stearn’s funds first got into trouble, my wife and I cashed out. I could see what was coming clearly, and except for a minimum investment in a few legacy funds to keep them open, we never went back into this manipulated fed experiment minupated market. Now, after we’re about to top out in maybe the biggest wave pattern in the history of markets you’re throwing in the towel on this part of the blog??? (please don’t take that the wrong way– I have so appreciated your sacrifice and time and moderation of this blog that I thought it important to TELL you that 😉
(selfishly) I’m interested in the conclusion of this all…and ways that I can position for our future (without only scalping a few bucks here and there on the action) and ultimately learning if there is a way to position to short this sucker at the right moment due to your count, and get out in time?
Is this not what we all would like in the end?
Farmer Pee d’Lo has been busy covering all the other bases that you talk about in your videos etc…. thank you so much for your time!
pee,
I’m not stopping my writing—I’m just moving my article to the front page of the site, where they’re more easily found, and they “last.” This page is mostly for traders and I don’t think the interest is there, plus once off the main blog entry for the week, they become hard to find. I also plan to get back into more videos.
So, it’s for the better. I need to reorganize my time.
As far as Elliott wave goes, I’ll post examples here showing how set-ups resulting in wins and what the pattern was, things like that.
Oh, thanks for the kind words. Dave DuByne (ADAPT 2030) and I are going to do a series of short videos and I’m sure we’ll be talking about Wheeler. I have a ton of info on him and his work still to write up. That will be book #2, but the first book has to get finished before I embark upon that one 🙂
Peter,
first of all want to thank you for providing an excellant market insight. I think here are few thing which will help to attract more attention and make it worthwhile your time. If you can post your entry real time or in advance, what instrument, entry ,stop and exit criterio. Also your conviction level, high conviction trade or low. Lot of people trade option and all this will be usefull, options lose value rapidly and you only need to enter high conviction trade. Hope this will help
Thanks again for the awesome analysis you do here, i wanted to share my though and help in anyway I can.
Bill, you’d get that in the paid service.
I think we all appreciate Peter’s helpful posts and comments, but grossly underestimate the amount of thought and time and preparation he puts forth into these every week. Time is money. If we want to continue to receive his instruction on EW and investment advice, more people need to sign up for his weekly chart show, which has been very helpful to me, and give his Traders Gold a try, which I have done.
Hi Peter, Let’s set up an interview at my new home https://twitter.com/forexanalytix/status/847820538823049216/photo/1 Best, Dale
Advertisement, do not bother opening link.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Sold 1 batch of my shorts for one bottle of Merlot. Still looking for April 20th as a low for this month. ( sold 2337) from 2362 spx
Well done,
Here in Holland we say:” better one bird in the hand than 10 in the air”
If we get a significant bounce later today, I will deploy the funds back to the short side minus my profits. Good luck to all.
No mercy Dave .. Party like it’s Mei 2010…I hope so ..lol
Thanks John. I am hoping for a 50 % retrace from this down draft and redeploy my last batch I sold this morning.
Re bought short 2348 spx. I maybe a little early.Total three batches short. Good luck to all.
All trades are based on ES Sp NOT spx.
Ordinarily VIX penetration of the upper BB would be a reversal signal but I do not think this move down is anywhere near done. We still have not had any meaningful correction in this market. This means the BBs are going to have to explode to contain a continued movement higher in VIX. There is still way too much optimism in this market and it simply has to be dispelled ahead of any serious move higher. Looking for VIX to fill out that long upper wick…
Verne, you will soon be correct on your assessment of the current state of the markets. Good luck.
The bankster cartel is spending hundreds of millions mindlessly trying to defend the 2350 pivot. What exactly are they trying to prove I wonder. The only thing they are going to accomplish is ensure that this area becomes formidable resistance once the index breaks it to the downside. Broken markets!
@CNBC
Morgan Stanley says huge 30% stock surge could be ahead; Like 1999, ‘can’t afford to miss it’……… Is it possible they have their monitor upside down. LOL
How did we do today?
1/4 day time shift and over-all trend looked good
https://s1.postimg.org/bf7xabkun/April_10_to_14_energy_stream_prediction_revised.gif
Thanks Tom.
Still looks very good so bottom could be on April 13.
Do you see a further decline after April 17?
I have a bottom April 25/26 for this month.
Thanks
John.
Yes to april 17th question
I will post a 30 day long term energy chart soon
Thanks Tom..
Hi Tom,
Thanks much for the update but could you explain of the chart on 4/12? That seems tomorrow’s chart and I am curious how it’s different from the energy chart on the same day (4/12)?
different stream source
for comparison
data is not always available
it’s good to have an alternate data feed
Thanks Tom. Last weeks fore cast ( fridays ) was not lining up with my TEMP low for the April 13th period. We seem to be insynch with each other now that you have tweaked your graph.. It shall be interesting how it all comes together.
Very concerned about VIX price action today. We are nowhere close to Peter’s downside target but we have VIX displaying what looks very much like a capitulation spike today. This is very puzzling as the decline so far has been inconsequential. Maybe we have a more complex wave developing but this full daily candlestick body completely outside the VIX B bands almost always signals a bottom in price. It may be that the C wave down just finished its own a move down and we now get a corrective b of C down with a second above BB spike at the conclusion of the c of C down. Any thoughts?
What might be going on is this..
Today we broke below 2354.. If you place your cross hair line at today’s close you can see the support and resistance going back to 2/21/17 and today we broke below it and in classic SPX fashion come back to check.
Tomorrow’s open should tell us the real story. I still believe we are in at least a W4 and 2300 min is the target. The weekly MacD now has a bearish cross and RSI just starting to poke below 70 along with the VIX closing above prior resistance.
The long wick and holding the daily 50 EMA & SMA on the SPX say’s we should head higher tomorrow and we could – but that is not my preferred direction.
The VIX past 3 days candles look like “Three White Soldiers” candle set up – which if true is extremely bullish for the VIX which tells me more downside to come which does align with the current expected EW count.
The Weekly UVXY – RSI and Slow Stochastics says the VIX is just getting started, however the long term VIX holders have seen VIX momentum get B-Slapped time and time again..
I place quite a bit of weight on Peter’s analysis so was quite confident about the downside targets he cited. In all honesty, I must tell you that every time in the past that I have ignored a VIX penetration of the upper B band of this kind because it conflicted with an expected EW count VIX has been right and the count has been wrong. I think you are right that price action tomorrow should bring some clarification. It is hard for me to imaging the many weeks of volatility compression could be resolved with so insignificant a decline. Ususually when VIX starts a big run higher it just stays pinned to the top BB but what we had today was an explosive move beyond the upper BB with almost the entirety of the candle’s body outside both B bands. Could that move this far off the expected EW bottom be heralding an even more explosive move in volatility? This would make sense as the compression we have recently seen as been absolutely historic.
Did a quick review of the “Three White Soldiers” candlestick pattern and it does seem that each subsequent candle has to open within the body of the previous candle for the pattern to obtain and today’s candle was a gap up open. The candles also should have a short on no upper wick with a close near the high of the day and today’s candle did have a good sized wick it appears….
I think we go to new high from here and then lower
Post venus conjunction bull lasts into early Summer. I am guessing that Thursday’s banking sector earnings reports will result in a fairly sizable rally that lasts into early May.
LizH
this market is becoming oversold from what im looking at .
this implies higher prices into april 20th .
Venus goes direct april 15th i believe .
I can make the case using the Dow close only chart that the entire
bull market from the 2009 lows is over. That is not what my cycles
work tells me nor from an internal look do i see lower prices either.
Yet i did cut back on my stock exposure last month because instinctively
i did not like what i was seeing and it was the $skew index and caused me
to remove my risk .
That said im think we have seen an B wave decline into today’s lows.
bottom of 1st leg ( if it is a first leg into the march 27 low which is now
the key level at 20412 on the cash dow )
may 27 an initial A wave down , this leg up would therefor be a complex
wave . march 27 low in wave A and a b c rally into april 5th being labeled
wave ( A ) todays low wave B and a further rally which should begin very soon
back up to test 21000 in wave C labeled wave ( B ) then a C wave back down
which wold break below the 20412 level and has extreme support in the 19748
area to as low as 19240 . the dilemma i m seeing now though is if the dow
actually does break down in a wave C it will make the case that we have seen
the bull market top .
so as i put all this together my bias is the march 27 lows were the lows
we head higher into april 20th and the down leg into may 13-19th
is a higher low than the march 27th low .
as for the nuts period we are in ? im seeing a few odd ball things which
are focused in the energy markets of different degrees .
shale oil being one sector and hydrogen fuel cells being the other .
mercury is now retrograde and you wait 10 days for the move .
april 19th-21st is the next turn and i favor it as a high and not a low .
im looking to take a bullish stance in the futures in the morning and
i cant rule out a loss on that trade yet that is what im seeing .
Todays lows are now my key level short term .
20412.80 the march 27 cash dow low
20512.56 todays lows .
larger time framed chart has the 20607 level on a closing basis
as the important level .
hence ill get long at some point this morning either in the over night session
or the daily session tomorrow yet a close below 20607 in the cash dow
leaves the door open for a close below 20400 ( not the 20412 swing low )
and that would argue a test of the 19748-19240 range is next and implies
the bull market ended .
all of that said im bullish until the market proves itself on the bearish side of things.
10 day trin says look to buy , 20 day oscillator says look to buy
advance decline line says they are buying yet that indicator is a bit
towards the overbought side of things .
on an odd note .
the daily close only chart of the dow lined up based on the moon
is following both the 1987 and 1929 market .
the may 13-19th cycle low i spoke of before dove tails into this
and if that is all playing out then the cash down will be in the 19748
area into that may cycle low .
my major window still is the may 18- june 30 time frame for the bullish cycle
i want to trade. this trade im thinking of is more of a short term trade
and a bit of an educational process where i trade the alternate .
that being trading the bullish cycle even though from what ive read hear
everyone looking for an april 20th low .
Joe
I believe, I am the only one who suggested April 20th John had 25 – 26th Andre may have said April 20th ? I very well could be wrong, but I will go with my own indicators until Mr Market says other wise.
Peter
I caught up on the sunspot cycle chart ive been using to compare
with the dalton minimum . trend wise all is the same .
that said the sunspots collapse is losing its momentum .
the comparison still calls for a low in may ( end of may )
then a move up into the end of October.
the shorter term look shows some strength ( relative )
Last year in southern Oregon we had rain and more rain from Nov to april .
it has been doing pretty much the same thing this year .
we had several 0 sunspot days in march 2017
http://imgur.com/GDk7TeT
Peter,
You say you don’t read other analysts to avoid bias. I feel the same way. So when I post my analysis it is not out of disrespect for yours; it is simply that I believe my analysis is most usefull when independent. And when I see confluence between let’s say Tom’s energy chart and my own timing I think this is valuable.
But this is your site so you set the rules. If you don’t appreciate the noise just say so and I will refrain from posting. Not out of frustration, but because it is your site.
So, no hard feelings but I want to understand.
Cheers,
André
No issues.
Thank you Peter …..n
Great to see you back Andre ! Do you see April 20th as a pivotal day or Johns April 25 26 as the days to hit a bottom? I am looking for ES. 2317 min. Good Luck.
Dave,
I see a low 21-22, then up into 4/25 and down into early may.
If you are correct, it would argue strongly for a final top. Although very few analysts (Enda Glynn being one http://static.safehaven.com/authors/glynn/44153_f_large.png) have charted a final top. I am still intrigued by that last parabolic move higher which acted a lot like a blow-off move. If we do not post a new high after the current decline, I think that’s all she wrote. Many measures remain quite extreme and we saw historic compression of volatility with the kind of complacency one would expect at a top of very high degree.
H – pattern set up in play for the SPX
Below 2338 gets real interesting.
GS – Has broke support and heading down
AAPl – Getting close to breaking down.
Gold looks to be heading higher – $JNUG – as long as it remains above $7.15
UVXY tried to get sold off but bounced back quickly.
All signs still point lower confirming even more W4 is here.
W4 can not go below 2194 – if it does it will confirm what I have been thinking. We have seen the top.
Long term energy chart update attached
https://s30.postimg.org/ndwtay74x/april_12_to_may_8_energy_chart.gif
Super Tom,
And it seems the energy chart also has april 25/26 for a bottom.
Fingers crossed things will work out this way.
Tom,
Could you give a hint of what are the input data for the energy chart?
Remember, nearly all of the gains in April for the #SPX the past 20 yrs take place late in the month … https://lplresearch.com/2017/04/12/when-will-the-bullish-april-seasonality-start/ …
Andre’,
I am quite sure that many people on this site hope you will continue to posts your analysis! I look forward to comparing your ideas with Tom’s. Both of you are very much appreciated!
Dave
good point , venus goes direct april 15 and this market turned down
when venus went retrograde .
I did go long the dow futures this morning at 20522 .
i saw many interesting correlations today that gave me confidence
to hold overnight .
the bad in this logic is , the cash dow closed below 20607 which
is a bearish close and targets the 19748-19240 area which bothers me.
so ill give this trade some room overnight but not much since im
showing a loss of 16 points ( 80 bucks ) at the moment .
one thing the past couple years has shown is the statistics have failed.
years up in years ending in 5 as example .
the 2nd half of april being up ??? i hope so yet today’s close and the correlation
with 1987 as well as 1929 in addition to peters wave count argues otherwise.
i agree with your timing work andre for the most part .
our differences are the april 20th-21 date as a high versus a low yet both of us consider it a turn . the may lows i completely agree with and that dove tails
with the 1929-1987 charts .
that all said im going to keep my eye on the futures overnight and give
trade some room to swing ( tight stop but not to tight )
the 20498 swing low is between the .786 and .886 retrace of this past days swing .
below that its 20470 .
news noise for thursday
Weekly Bill Settlement
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
1st week of May is bound to be a SOB w/ high volatility…
Wed May 3rd FOMC
Fri May 5th April NFP#
Sun May 7th French Election
pattern has been 5%-6% corrective into elections…
BREXIT was 5% in ~2 weeks
Joe, I agree with you in that we will get a significant rally that should finish off any bears left. My personal cycle, says we should have a 80 to 120 point MIN. rally from early Mays bottom. Which is after the early May French elections running thru to late June. As of now I will stay short with my three batches of shorts. Best of luck to you.
Peter,
A special thanks to you for your unselfish devotion to the site you built!
Hi Ed,
Thanks.
🙂
After hours VIX (UVXY) is popping above prior resistance.
Draw your line @ SPX 2322.25 that area has to be held and it should test it 1 more time in order for any pop higher to occur..
The Banks could surprise but XLF and KRE are saying something different and showing weakness at the moment.
Interesting SPX hit 2400 March 1st 2017 and we have not looked back since.
The rising wedge from 1810 to present that shot above the upper trend line back in mid Feb. is now dropping back in creating a “Failed Break Out”.
The monthly candle formation is starting to resemble a “Evening Star”
Along with the other signals I mentioned in an earlier post..
And your bullish why? 🙂
For anyone that doubts the effect of seasonality on the DOW. According to Jay Kaeppel who is a market commentator, if you had bought the DOW only on the following trading days each month: last four trading days, first three, days 9, 10, 11, 12 and the three days before and after each market holiday, the total returns since 1955 have been a factor of 10 vs. buy and hold. By the way, Friday is a market holiday. =)
Thanks Valley.
Jody
im bullish because im stubborn and have a hard time accepting i may be wrong.
that said i see the downside risks and at the moment im looking at this as a
short term trade into options expiry .
valley
thanks for the heads up
that changes my thought process on holding through the weekend
( cover the shorts for the long weekend )
20656.10 would be unch for the week on the dow
need a weekly close cash dow 20668 or higher to signal
higher prices next week.
20607 still matters
joe
Think triangle.
Clearly!
It was entered during a downtrend, therefore the exit will be to the downside.
I am mystified by talk of any bullish trades under the curcumstances…OBV also broke to the downside today. 🙂
vallley
just getting this right
if you buy 1st 2nd 3rd day of month as well as
9th 10th 11th 12th ( i got long on the 12th )
and last 4 days .
that is a buy 11 days out of a 20 day trading period
i assume that makes sense giving we have been in a
bull market . yet in a bear market i wonder if it has held true ?
Joe
Kaeppel’s study was from 1955 to present, I believe. Also, three trading days before each market holiday and three days after which adds 20 or so additional days per year.
Peter
MY thoughts exactly ( Triangle )
now if the market will just prove it
🙂
It will tomorrow.
In a potentially concerning geopolitical development, Reuters reports that foreign journalists visiting North Korea have been told to prepare for a “big and important event” on Thursday. Take with a grain of salt, mercury retrograde period.
Thanks for the heads-up but Trump would be not so yuge in NoKo in terms of overblown rhetoric. So one would be wise to take it with a grain of salt in any other period too (:
Crazy day today with the Trump comments. Who knew they would affect the dollar that much?? That’s crazy if you think about it.
Peter
i came across a chart i had given up on back in 2014 the other night
and i went through it this morning . On top of this i took a short term
indicator i use when trading and tweeked it then back checked it to
the 1970’s using weekly and monthly charts . both of these opened my eyes
in a big way . i have been predominately bearish through the late 1990’s into
the 2009 lows . from that point i have had a bullish view and it has worked.
your site has helped to keep me in check .
my issues with this market i mentioned the other day and they still stand .
here is my simple concerns.
the dow weekly chart painting it with a broad brush has 3 waves up
from the jan 2016 lows . i think you agree with me on that .
i count the move from dec 2016 into jan 2017 as an extremely shallow 4th wave
of wave 3 . from there we went up in what can be considered the top of wave 3.
here is where i have concerns . a break back down to the jan 2017 lows
in wave 4 makes sense from an Elliot wave perspective ( im asking you opinion )
this would imply the 19678 level ???
that is the Elliott wave question .
now for the concern, a move back down to that level will give the appearance
of a head and shoulders top formation if that move is seen.
taking the January low at 19678 to the highs this year its 50 % retrace
at 20423.52 . the march 27th low was 20412.80 was just a little below that .
if i get creative ( something i dont like to do with wave counts )
i can label the recent lows of a minor 4th wave . ( weekly chart )
week of jan 16 the low , wave i up and ii down into the week of jan 30th
and wave 3 into the week of feb 27th . if this is true and using the weekly chart
obviously not the daily or intra day . then march 27th is wave iv and we have
just seen waves i and ii and we are about to enter wave iii of 5 of 3 .
while this counts ok, i find it abit overly optimistic .
the alternate is as i mentioned a few days ago . the market actually peaked
and we are in the early stages of a bear market .
my reasoning is the indicator i tweeked along with a few others i use .
i am finding myself laughing a bit, how many others are taking this same
view ??????
a down close today will show on the cash Dow close only chart 5 waves
down .
If i throw politics into this . the rumor is they will go back to working on
healthcare and deal with tax reform afterwords . the repeal of dodd frank
is a lot of words yet that would take months to get through .
it really is time to change my mind on this market .
i realize the time you take to do your updates and that is very much
appreciated yet i think you could begin showing longer term weekly
or monthly counts in the future since we are getting very close .
looking at the larger picture i can see dow 10,000 as well as a retest
of the 1974 at 570 on the dow . i think a year with a 10,000 point swing in the
dow should be expected . maybe not this year but maybe next .
thanks for everything
Joe
Yes, the level you cite for a fourth wave would be in a typical motive wave sequence. However, we’re in a corrective wave sequence, so there are no rules. It’s also starting to look more and more like a giant wedge.
The fourth wave at this level is typically a combination wave. We’ve had a flat. It looks like we’re in a triangle now. If it’s a triangle, they’re the final pattern, so we wouldn’t necessarily be coming down much lower than we are now.
So you expect less than the typical 38% re-tracement?
short term hourly chart timeline
4 hours from the open . its an hourly bar
so could begin 4 hours from open or end
following the 4th hour .
either way its a double time line .
i found my pain threshold and learned my lesson
still long the futures and now just above breakeven
im not going to do that again .
no opinion on this market and im sticking to
my basics and tighter stops .
the close below 20607 was bearish
a close above 20668 is needed today to give me a more
bullish view next week .
double time line on hourly 4 , 4 hours from the open
im exiting this trade today gain or loss yet i prefer gain
dont ever do this again , ( note to self )
Regarding time shift today April 13th
looks like that big drop is not going to happen at the end of the day?
https://s4.postimg.org/h5pff9lbh/April_10_to_14_energy_stream_prediction_revised.gif
Does that imply that it will hold over until Monday?
Friday morning
Market closed Friday.
Exactly. We drop only when the market is closed (Brexit, Election night). Buy the dip.
Aha! I see, said the blind man, as he picked up the hammer and began to saw! 🙂
Especially for you I will open the door on Wallstreet tomorrow Tom..
I m looking for an April 18th high now..
Enjoy the holiday’s and thanks for your effort.
Sold One Batch ES 2342 for one cheap bottle of wine. 2 batches short still from ES 2362I will be looking to sell one more today. I do not like to go into a weekend heavily short. good luck every one.
I am still looking for some kind of a temp low April 20th.
https://worldcyclesinstitute.com/predictions-revisited/#comment-16738
“We see major repercussions between the 17th to 19th April…”
Thanks for the reminder Rotrot. I feels like I am caught here, due to being in nice positive position. Bears and Bulls make money, Pigs lose out. 2 batches short at the moment. I may possibly buy back my one batch short Monday and ride out three into April 20th. Or sell another batch today and buy 2 batches Monday to have three batches for April 20th. Caught with my own trading rules, do not be PIGISH !!!!
Sold another batch at the 2332 level. One batch left. Hoping to buy back Monday to have three batches into the April 20. Now I can relax and have a nice peaceful weekend. It is very difficult to quantify in terms of dollars on having a relaxing holiday. Good luck everyone.
UVXY above $20.67 should see $21.36 at a min.. UVXY @ $20.54 atm.
Looks like the market is getting ready to get smoked.
We shall see..
My biggest hesitation right now is that I was expecting we would have a third wave down today. If you have to ask if it is a third wave it’s not. This would seem to eliminate the C down and suggest some kind of ongoing triangle for this mostly sideways movement and therefore a shallower correction.
Today could be a 200-300 point down day..
That would definitely be a third wave! 🙂
We are now below both upwards and downwards trend lines for SPX.. If we get follow through into the close it will be significant.. We could though get a head fake and start heading back up to upper trend line of this triangle we are in.. Everyone goes short once the support breaks and the big $$ come in and buy it up creating a false break down..
Very good summary Jody. I am also concerned with the big boys coming into help stabilize the markets going into a long weekend. At least, the boys who did not go to the Hamptons. Lol
We will know here shortly.. We have bounced off that SPX trend line but UVXY has broken above prior resistance and now just came back to check. UVXY $20.96 is the area that needs to hold to see stocks dump into the close..
Looking good Jody ! It would be nice to see 2317 ES as posted a few days ago. If so, my last batch is going to be sold.
Price action looking to me like the most contrived bear trap I have ever seen. It is just way too convenient to be coming at the end of the session going into a long week-end. Another reason I am not buying it is that if glaringly failed to take out the 2322.25 low. It was just all way too cute for my taste. A genuine third wave down should have demolished that previous low out the gate. I took profits on all my short positions before the close and will re-assess on Monday. I think they are going to ramp futures over the week-end and rip the faces off any traders going short into the close. Just my two pence. Have a great resurrection week-end for those of you who know the King!
It appears price action today ended with a 3,3,5 flat upward correction for a fourth wave, followed by a final fifth wave down. A perfect scheme to draw in shorts, and keep shorts positions holding on. I think the banksters are still firmly in control…for now…
hardest 80 bucks ive made in a while .
glad i exited , thanks for you thoughts peter
its easy to trade with no money at risk , :))
the past days swing was good for me
all the market could do was go back and test the 20607
level . this is still looking bearish .
ill see what the market looks like as we enter the 4th hour of the day
yet i doubt ill make any trades today .
my original plan was a short term trade which i made a few dollars
yet to much of a draw down from a risk reward stand point .
im back to my may 18th entry window for a trade into late june .
any other trades ill keep very short term .
its less painful
How did we do this week?
over-all trend looks very good for the week
https://ibb.co/g1Y935
Tom, I completely for got about your graph. Very impressive ! Hopefully, you can update your graph Sunday for the coming week. I would like to see if it lines up with my target date for April 20th. Thanks
Thanks
Not a deep sell off but lower so the stream is correct.
I hope we will start higher Monday and Tuesday in Europe.
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