The Slow Shuffle Towards Civil War
Usually on a Sunday morning, I tune in to “Meet the Press,” one of the longest running NBC television programs ever, focused primarily on panel discussion and interviews related to US politics. They used to touch on international affairs, but less so in the past few years, unfortunately. Recently, it’s been guilty of endless Trump-bashing, from a very one-sided perspective.
Watch the “Meet the Press” clip here.
I’ve come to the conclusion that there really is no investigative reporting any more.
Chuck Todd, the host, takes the US government position (or democratic party view) to a fault more and more often. There’s very little objective weighing of differing views and almost no attempt to question anything put out by the liberal print media in sometimes superficial “reports,” based on skeptical sources. It didn’t use to be that way.
There’s a story this weekend in the New York Times that describes and seems to support an unsubstantiated “report” that Russia was out to swing the US election in Trump’s direction. The article is based on the fact (which isn’t a fact at all) that the Republican National Committee was hacked by Russia (which is not true, according to either the FBI or Reince Priebus, the RNC Chairman). And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell doesn’t buy it, either.
The conclusion that they draw is that because Russia supposedly hacked both the democratic and republican committees, and only the emails from the democrats came out through Wikileaks, that Russia attempted to undermine the US election.
- The republican committee was not hacked, according to the FBI
- Julian Assange has repeatedly stated that Russia was not the source for the democrats’ emails
- There is no hard evidence that it was Russian who hacked the democratic committee emails
- The US intelligence agencies do not all support this allegation of Russian involvement.
The report is not based on hard evidence, simply on conjecture. It’s not supported by all of the US intelligence agencies.
To me this is another sign that the United States is heading for civil war. This is what happens in downturns after a 500 year cycle top. In this case, there seems to be an ongoing attempt to split the nation in two politically. The media is playing with fire.
People are simply taking sides, based solely on opinion and there’s a kind of myopia in terms of the larger picture—the corruption that is everywhere so obvious, in and out of government. The position that Russia undermined the US election is simply not credible at this point. It’s propaganda, as far as I can make out.
And yet, the host of Meet the Press spent a good chunk of time hammering away at Reince Priebus, based on a premise which Reince Priebus categorically denied again and again, with backup from a month of FBI investigations. The war of words and mounting of fake news stories intensifies. Meanwhile, Rome burns.
There’s even talk of another election.
The Frog Effect
There’s an old wives tale that involves frogs in boiling water and is a metaphor for human nature.
First, put a frog in a pot of cold water, and then place that pot on a stove top. Now turn on the burner and very slowly increase the heat. The legend has it that the frog will not notice the ever-increasing temperature and will not jump out of the pot. It is, of course, not true. And it’s not true of humans either, in the same situation.
However, humans are tremendously adaptive—it’s a trait that has allowed us to prosper even in the most difficult of times. But it can be detrimental to our well-being, as well, because we often don’t recognize deteriorating conditions until it’s too late to do anything about them.
I continually refer to the “herd”—the bulk of society that is blissfully unaware that there are any problems with the financial system, that society has become generally very angry, and that our standard of living has dropped to a level at which despair is starting to overtake what once was the middle class. The food lines are growing, people are losing their jobs, many have lost their homes, and it’s getting worse and worse. The elite are growing are growing richer and more distant financially from the rest of the population—this is a typical major societal revolution that’s similar to ones of the past, most obviously, the French Revolution.
There are many who just don’t see the bigger picture. They’re either hoping for a turnaround in the near future (thanks to governments telling us conditions are much better now than in the past), or they’re losing their self esteem because they think their reduced lot in life is their fault (this is the true tragedy, in my opinion). Lives will be ruined and many will never recover psychologically.
Cycles give us the bigger picture and a warning of the bleak times just around the corner.
When the crash comes, there will still be many that will “buy the dips” either financially, or psychologically … all the way to the bottom. It has always happened that way.
|“At the extremes, the herd is always wrong. One should not under estimate its capacity for stupidity.”|
|Phil Anderson, The Secret Life of Real Estate|
If we could get the world to accept that major natural cycles change the course of history, perhaps we could prepare for the bad times by not going completely hog-wild in the good times. Perhaps I’m being way too naive?
The US Market
A Christmas Present: This is the same “big picture analysis” for ES that I’m providing in my premium service.
There has been so much crazy speculation in the past 48 hours as to where this market is going, I thought it best to focus in on the “never ending diagonal” to reinforce the fact that it’s just an ending diagonal, we’ve seen it many times before (at least I have), and it always traces out much the same pattern, with a time projection that really isn’t going to change that much from the norm.
This particular ending diagonal is extremely rare. In fact, nobody to my knowledge has ever seen one at cycle degree or higher at the end of a corrective wave (at least, in a bull market).
Let’s get some of the emotion out of the equation and take a look at the pattern from a technical perspective to get a realistic look at where we’re going and when. Then you can tell me I’m crazy (I’m used to it … lol).
We continue to work our way through the ending diagonal.
Ending diagonals are rare at cycle degree. Wherever they trace out, they suggest a market that is extremely weak and barely able to achieve a new high. Although ending diagonals usually fall under the banner of a motive wave, they have properties more aligned with corrective waves. Ralph Elliott described an ending diagonal as occupying the fifth wave position of a motive wave when the preceding move has gone “too far too fast.” He maintained that it indicates “exhaustion of the larger movement.”
This particular version of an ending diagonal is extremely rare. That’s because it’s at the end of a corrective wave. And that, I believe, is primarily due to the fact that the rise from 2009 has a large central banker component—an “unnatural” element to it. It has fuelled the bullishness of the herd, but not in a sufficient way to effect a truly “motive” market. We’re barely making it to the top.
Last week, I posted a video relating to my original projection for a third wave with a maximum high of 2237. Once we exceeded that number, I immediately posted a video projecting higher levels due to the fact that I’d missed a tiny defining element of all ending diagonals: all waves must be zigzags.
You can see in the diagram above that the first wave of the ending diagonal (wave 1) starting from (4) is in three waves. This is the usual structure of a motive wave—all waves must be zigzags, starting from the fourth wave of one degree higher. Usually, they begin after the fourth wave of a motive five wave pattern.
However, in the chart below, you can see that from the red (4) to the red wave 1 of the ending diagonal, there are only three waves (blue ABC). In fact, the three waves are a zigzag and actually make up the whole of the first wave of the ending diagonal. That’s because the wave from blue B to red wave 1 is in five waves (it is NOT a zigzag; it’s just a “zag”). This gets down really deep into the intricacies of Elliott waves—and supports it as a science.
And that gives me a new mini-module for the course I’m working on that nobody else seems to be aware of!
Projection for a Top
Based on the ending diagonal we’re currently in (which is the pattern playing out in all the major US indices), I’m still projecting a final top to our five hundred year set of Supercycle waves at the end of the 2016 year or into early January. I’m leaning towards the end of December or first part of January (more likely). I’ll explain more about the timing below.
Here’s the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures):
Through fibonacci ratios, I’m projecting a possible top for the third wave of the ending diagonal for ES of 2294-2300. By extension, it projects a top for the third wave for the SP500 of 2300-2315.
Note the extreme drop-off in volume for this wave (it’s the purple indicator line at the bottom of the chart). Volume is almost none existent. It should surge in the fourth wave down and we should get a volume surge during the first part of the fifth wave.
Here are the rules going forward:
- Wave 3 must be shorter than wave 1 and reach a new high.
- Wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3 and reach a new high (usually it does a “throw-over”—extends above the upper trendline defined by the tops of wave 1 and 3, but it is not necessary.
- Wave 4 must be shorter than wave 2 and must drop into the area of wave 1.
- All waves must be in 3’s (zigzags).
- The trendlines of the ending diagonal must converge.
If wave 3 in ES were to reach 2315, that would be a 20% extension of the fifth wave (C wave) that we’re currently tracing out. The first four-fifths of the third wave (from ~2024 to 2055 now) took about 3 weeks (if you discount the US thanksgiving holiday). Similar progress would suggest another week at most to the 2315 area. This may coincide with the Federal Reserve meeting announcement at the end of the day Wednesday, Dec. 14. If there is an interest rate rise, I would expect a sharp drop into wave 4 of the ending diagonal.
The higher wave 3 rises, the shorter it makes wave 4, simply by the fact that the trendlines must converge. You can look at the diagram at the top of this section to see how small wave 4 and 5 usually are compared to waves 1 through 3.
It may take longer to get to a top than my speculation but we’re not months and months away as per some of the projections I’ve heard. We’re much closer than that, more like weeks away.
As a comparison: Below is a chart of gold. look at the time factor in wave 4/5 compared to wave 3.
Above is the 2 day chart of XGLD showing an ending diagonal to the downside. Note the length of time it took the third wave down to trace out compared to the 4th/5th wave. The 4th and 5th wave together took 2/3rds the time of the entire third wave. This is typical of an ending diagonal. In this case, if the third wave (in our case above) takes a month to trace out, it could well be less than a month for waves four and five to trace out.
In the case of XGLD, the ending diagonal did not do a throw-over. In the present situation, I’d be very surprised if the opposite were not the case.
Summary: We are completing the third wave of the ending diagonal before zigzagging to the top of the largest bubble in history. The long awaited bear market is getting closer.
Sign up for: The Chart Show
Thursday, December 22 at 2:00 pm EST (US market time)
NOTE: There is no chart show on Dec. 15 as I’ll be travelling.
The Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis in real time for the US market, gold, silver, oil, and major USD currency pairs.
Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. You’ll also get Andy Pancholi turn dates for the balance of the current month. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.
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Thanks for the early Christmas gift. I don’t have much money to invest, so I don’t subscribe to the service. I always read your posts to glean what I can to help protect myself and my loved ones from the inevitable.
You shouldn’t provide links to “fake news” like NBC, though. That was hard to watch. There is no more common ground in the States. And without common ground you can not have a proper battle of ideas, only a shouting match from distant perspectives. I voted for Trump. We see the Left as suicidal. They see us, the Right, as homicidal. I don’t see it ending in war, but I could see the US breaking apart within the next 25 years.
Interesting perspective. Don’t disagree. I’m headed down to NYC tomorrow and hope to “take the temperature.” Stay safe.
“I’m still projecting a final top to our five hundred year set of Supercycle waves at the end of the 2016 year or into early January. ”
“This particular version of an ending diagonal is extremely rare. That’s because it’s at the end of a corrective wave.”
Hi Peter … I’m having trouble reconciling these two points. Is there an easy way to straighten me out on this? I assume that this rally is a corrective STRUCTURE, even though it may be making new highs. Ie, its not an impulse. The term ‘corrective’ can be misleading, as it implies a move against the trend. If so, I might be inclined to avoid ‘corrective’ in this context, and use ‘terminal’ instead. More evocative too. 8<)
That would obfuscate the point I’m trying to make.
Hi Peter, thanks very much for the new post. Please may I ask why your 0% line on the fib in the chart above sits at 2140.81? I can’t quite ‘obviously’ see that as a bottom for any wave.
Other than that I am in full agreement with everything that you’ve said both about the world in general and the waves in particular. Saddens me at what should be ‘happy times’ now.
Peter, having said I agree with everything else you’ve said, I re-read joe’s comment in the last post and I think there may well be a valid point in that we are just in the ‘a’ wave of the 3rd wave.
I guess I’m asking why you think this is ALL of wave 3 since the overnight US election swoon, please?
It’s not all but it’s almost all. I count a triple three (zigzags) and that’s all you get in a corrective wave.
OK thx Peter, I’ll go have another detailed look.
I’m heading out of town so I won’t be around much this week during the day. I’ll retrieve comments etc. at night. It’s Dr. Wheeler in NYC week …
jody wrote in the previous post : “There is another pattern that nobody seems to be talking about.. Since the pattern starts back @ Dec 2014 it is hard to see the exact tick where this run will stop, but Dow 20K is not in the projection.. ”
Hi jody, please would you elaborate or show a graph of what this pattern is please? I’m at a total loss as to what that pattern might be.
joe your comments in the previous post were extremely interesting (and a bit terrifying!!) I’ve taken copies to keep reminding myself if the markets do head off in that direction.
you meant “JOE”. you said “jody”, but you meant joe……. :-))
remember a ‘market’ is made with the confluence off all insights [bullish, bearish, neutral]. Only one insight is right at any particular snap shot in time.
your goal, is to make sure your ‘insight’ at a future ‘snap shot’ in time is the correct one……
luri, I did mean jody for the first bit and joe for the second. Here’s the link to jody’s comment in the previous post:
I do hope jody responds because I’m intrigued by what the pattern might be.
Oops sorry jody, saw your message below and I now see what you are seeing. One question though. Why not go from the bottom of Dec’14 candle to the bottom of the Aug’15 candle which is lower?
with the [terminal] thrusting of prices, the price action for the spx and dow is well outside the 2 standard deviation trading range on the daily time frame, the behavior is similar to the VIX. if i recall, when the vix is trading way outside its bb, then you take the opposite position on the first trading day it closes back inside the Bollinger. so i am waiting for those first ‘daily closes’ back inside the bollinger band as a set up.
Go to a Dow Monthly chart..
Start your trend line at the top of the Dec 2014 Candle and touch the top Feb. 2015 Candle. Then go to the bottom on the Dec 2014 candle and start your trend line and touch the bottom of the Feb. 2016 candle.
The pattern should pop out then and give you the target for the bottom of the correction which should be the first wave down, and could be in 3 or 5 waves..
If we think about what you wrote – would it not make sense then that during a blow off wave big money is accumulating VIX because of what happens next?
VIX can rocket and make it hard to get in once the market starts to drop. The “I will buy when it pulls back” turns into “it can’t go much higher” and finally “I missed the move”.
If your thinking is inline with what I am thinking then it makes perfect sense to load up on protection now.
we are in sync. it is best to have a 1/4 position before the anticipated move. What i was saying, was that a ‘close’ back inside the bollinger band [as is shown as a trading rule for the VIX] is a “set up” for the change in trend, rather than a ‘set up’ for the trade.
just as in the vix, the big reversal moves happen in the days succeeding the very tiny move of a ‘close’ back into the BB. so that “topping” tail you were waiting for last week, looks like it is happening today – ALONG WITH THAT CLOSE BACK INTO THE BB.
Hi Luri, out of interest what bb settings do you use for the Vix, cheers
standard settings [20,2,0]……why? do you have a special ‘sauce’ secret setting that you want to share with the luri??? :-))
Unfortunately no secrets L, just checking.
btw ….the standard hot chilli sauce prevails every time….
Andre’s hypo is 12/13/16 High and 12/23 low. Would be cool, for me, that 12/12 is a high and 12/21 is the low solely based one the play of the two dates’ numbers. 🙂
Using day counting, from 9/29/15 low, day 26 was 11/3/15 high then down to 11/16/15. Today is day 26 from 11/4/16 low.
PALS this week:
Phase: negative (post Full)
Distance: negative (post Pergiee)
Declination: positive (pre North)
Seasonals: neutral (pre Xmas slowing)
Summary: Guessing this week will have mild sell off.
Peter: have fun in New York!
Ok here’s my update on the DJIA 20K call. Now that we’ve reached 19900+ I reckon to frustrate ALL it’s going to stop short of the 20K and reverse enough to make everyone feel that 20K won’t be achieved. Reverse how far?….to 19830ish or just a bit more.
Alternately it is going to BLOW past 20K like a hot knife through margarine and leave everyone (including me) staring in disbelief.
I KNOW I KNOW….I’m calling an EITHER/OR (i.e. I can’t lose scenario) but blame it on the market not me. I’d rather be making a one sided call here!!
sentiment extremes leads to reversals. does your post indicates to me a ‘sentiment’ extreme? :-))
at what point does valuations of Goldman Sach, JPM, CAT, and HD ~ which represents the lion share of this terminal ‘parabolic’ price thrust ~ become so extreme that there is a run for the door to ‘profit – take’?
few stocks carrying indexes is the hallmark of final moves. Had the move been broad based so that the bullish % from the point and figure charts supported the move, i would say you were spot on.
Unfortunately, the opposite is true. the bullish % as indicated from point and figure charts are negatively diverging both in the short term, medium term and the long term…….
luri, I’m happy to be the ‘ultimate sentiment EXTREME indicator’ IF the market will take notice of that.
Much as I’d like to say ‘I WARNED you all about 20K’ I would very much prefer if the thing didn’t get there during the next century.
The Ending Diagonal on the DJIA just died (RIP). I did a measurement from the mid August highs to the post Trump election swoon overnight (1182 points, call it 1200). The DJIA just went past 19950. So if you take away 1200 from 19950 you are left with 17750 which is higher than the mid August high. i.e. wave iv would have to be longer than wave ii to overlap wave i.
BOY is this a mess!! Back to the drawing board for all of us. UGH!!
I wish the MMs had taken at least a Basic 101 course in EW.
See what happens when the markets mess with me!! NOT 17750 but 18750!!
Just to reassure people who DON’T follow the DJIA everything is hunky dory on the S&P 500 front. Still a long way to go before IT gets invalidated.
you are great! so it says in the bible that “the meek shall inherit the earth”.
motto of the story – follow the small guys! they will reveal the truth!
so what was happening to the small [meek] ones as the big ones were blowing their top??
http://invst.ly/2xpuq long view
http://invst.ly/2xpvs close up
so sure am i of following the meek…..one more chart of them, LONG TERM.
this goes back to 2001….look what it tells us!!
Yeah, I agree the DOW is a bit of a challenge. I’ve played with different versions of an ED (there are about 4 of them), and there’s a problem with each one. Unless it still has to put in a small one at the end and this is still part of wave 1. It’s certainly not an impulse wave.
Everything else seems to work but I won’t get to “do the rounds” until later tonight.
Yes Peter I agree that the DJIA is a bit of a problem. I’m going to go back to my original thoughts on the DJIA and post a chart tomorrow. I am increasingly beginning to think that the lower low on the S&P which was NOT matched by the DJIA back in Feb was an ‘important tell’ and we should have listened to it.
I’m increasingly inclined to believe that the S&P is putting in the MAJOR top that you have been mentioning but not the DJIA. It will drop hard but rally to a very tiny higher high while the others wont.
A picture will hopefully make it clear tomorrow.
that last long term chart, was a broadening topping pattern for a broadening pattern. fractals.
so keep the faith, your trades will come back to you.
Faith!? Aaah ‘that’ nebulous thing. I have that in spades but no ‘interest’ received on it yet.
Very nice charts. Particularly the baby and momma one. Now let’s hope we get our just ‘rewards’ for keeping the ‘faith’.
Dark cloud cover (tweezer top) on the S&P hourly.
Dow will see 10,000 before it sees 20,000.
Calling the top @ S&P 2277..
jody, we have a saying in our language…..loosely translated it says : ‘May there be sugar in your mouth’.
I would love that prediction to come true.
It’s hard to call tops or bottoms. Especially when you are still riding above the MA’s but today S&P hit the underside of the up sloping trendline coupled with the Megaphone patterns on the monthly Dow, Rut and S&P and along with the Comp cipher pattern seems to be a good spot. Although the little fat lady speaks tomorrow and that could be an X factor..
Jody, Yellen as the X factor. I like that!! Judging from the pre-market action it looks like we’ll have to wait till the Fed’s magical tea leaf reading is revealed.
Also the market is now SOOO jittery that it won’t know how to react regardless of what is decided.
my dad used to say to me as a kid .
be careful what you wish for, it may just come true
This line is for the global warming folks, who want us to get cooler.
sorry for typo
Yes joe, I agree. Your dad and the Chinese are wise people.
I usually refer 2 writers of the many that I follow here. The one, Mr J Snider is knowledgeable in money matters to a level which baffles me and sadly is a hard read. However I battle daily because of the wisdom that I eventually glean from reading his post the 3rd or 4th time.
The second is W Ben Hunt who is also knowledgeable about the markets and combines his love of ‘game theory’ to provide interesting perspectives on the market. The following is his newest post and WELL WORTH reading in my opinion:
P.S. W Ben Hunt is a really ‘easy’ read.
Watching breach of lower trend line of 30 min. /ES rising wedge from Dec. 7 and see if it can recapture it.
Haha!! Yellen has a ‘dot plot’ for 3 rate rises next year….and guess what the markets are RISING!!
Raold Dahl should have taken lessons from the Fed. He would have been EVEN MORE famous. Oh wait my sources indicate that it was the other way around. The Fed took lessons from Mr Dahl on fiction hence their ability to ‘entertain’ so enormously.
So post FOMC ‘rate hike’ there is neither a ‘sell off’ nor a ‘ramp’. At least if the FOMC had done nothing then we would have had a ramp. Right now I can’t make any money because of the infernal chop. I need some momentum in either direction.
Hope Trump gets rid of them altogether or at a minimum neuters them completely. Personally I’d prefer the latter!!
Oops sorry meant to say: ‘WELL DONE’ to andre. Looks like his 13th December high will hold.
Andre you ‘rock’. (Don’t fully understand what that means but I’ve heard it said in a positive way…..and I’m trying to be ‘with it’). Just in case Andre doesn’t get it either:
Thanks very much for all your posts and your continued ability to predict the ‘right’ direction.
There….that is something I understand at least.
RUT update. http://invst.ly/2x-d1
welcome to option expiry this week
on Monday Dec 19 the electoral college votes
on Monday Dec 19 mercury goes retrograde
I usually give mercury retro a 10 day rely
so Dec 29 – Jan 18th vs Dec 19-Jan 8th .
lastly Jan 20th 2017 is a cycle low
no opinion on where this market is going at this juncture
yet today’s decline does not concern me at this point given
we have option expiry , option ecpiries I view as position squaring
so skewed data , next week’s mercury retrograde usually brings
declines yet not always .
it’s to soon to call the top .
bottom line : I favor higher prices after Jan 20th regardless of the
electoral college vote on Dec 19 as well as mercury going retro on the
I’ll note though the weekly chart as well as the monthly
December close from a wave count perspective is where
my eyes are focused .
Peter I would love global warming to stay 🙂 and yet I have accepted
Long ago we are going into a long term cooling cycle .
I see your expanding triangle yet have a question for you .
how do you justify wave 4 on your chart going below wave 2 .
where under Elliott wave theory is that a valid wave structure ?
ps sell me on the validity of that wave count labeling if you can .
joe, I’m sure luri will be able to eloquently explain the expanding triangle’s justifications but as an observation I would venture that an ‘expanding triangle’ by it’s very definition will have larger waves in EITHER direction than the previous ones in the series.
i.e. w3 will be larger than w1 and w4 will be larger than w2. ‘THAT’ is the very nature of an expanding triangle…..surely?
My question to luri is simple
Where under Elliott wave theory can wave 4 go below wave 2 .
The expanding triangle in my opinion would be labeled with letters
Not numbers .
So he shows 2 counts yet his 1 2 3 4 5 labels is what I’m asking him
To explain .
Aah I see what you are saying about letters vs numbers.
;-)) as long as you tell me in EW terms how wave 2’s can still be labeled wave 2’s w/o retracing 61.8% or even 50% then i will tell you about the 4 being lower than the 2!!!
the RUT looks to have completed a ‘broadening topping formation’ , sometimes called a megaphone formation. you can investigate this chart pattern yourself, as it represents a change in the ‘underlying direction of price’ pattern. when there is an ultimate change in direction to the underlying price trend i use numbers, versus ‘corrections to the underlying trend’ or continuation patterns – i use letters.
little has been written about this pattern. Elliott spent alot of time describing the “irregular’ top formation – which is very similar to the broadening top formation.
Prechter completely dismissed his work on irregular tops, and call his effort – “mislabeled”.
as long as the pattern is widely recognized, and followed, that is all that matters. Everyone is looking at the same pattern, and acts accordingly – which creates the underlying price trends.
just an observation
i have noticed that using google is now a mistake for searches .
compare bing to google and you will see what im talking about .
google has a definite liberal bias and in my opinion screens my searches
to tailor to what they want me to think is true .
using bing i get better and more informational searches.
try it and see what you think
Interesting Joe, search engine change is as good as a holiday : )
I also support your Dec 19th date. Aligns with a 288 calendar day cycle I’ve been following and last tabled early in Nov
SPX price possibly back up to 2278 or 2285 would suffice.
2278 = old May 2015 top @ 2134 plus 144
2285 sits 11 revolutions above 666 on WD Gann’s square of 9.
Ephemeris Tool – planetary aspects surrounding Dec 16th notably conjunctions b/w Mercury, Venus & Uranus which may support cycle turn.
interesting , for the record i am going to remove modzilla firefox as my browser
also . ill admit i have a bullish bias in the stock market yet if the data shows
me to be wrong ill flip yet at the moment i m sticking to my guns that we see
higher prices into oct 2017 at the earliest.
a mercury venus conjuntion ill have to look up , i could add Uranus to it and
compare it to the market yet it takes time to graphically correlate it however
its possible i already have it and just dont know it .
mercury venus conjunction would indicate a high of sorts yet including uranus
id have to look up . if you look up the basics on the Bradley model theories.
combining all 3 would signal a high . ( quick search )
the question is how the mercury Venus conjunction is positioned .
Barbara koval , in her book Time and Money focused on what she termed
a Venus bull market versus a Venus bear market .
the basics were using both mercury as Venus .
Venus as a morning star tended to be bullish over the 100 years of data she researched and Venus as an evening star tended to be bearish .
the conjunction of mercury and Venus was the key when also conjunct the sun
my belief is at this moment Venus is an evening star ( ill have to check )
the set up is Venus superior and mercury inferior at conjunct
also Venus being inferior and mercury being superior , it is at those
times you see the start of a Venus bear or Venus bull market .
while i watch this set up and i have observed it i have not seen it as
reliable or consistent yet i have seen it work
ill look it up and post a picture to help explain it graphically
and ill note the dates as a reference
im not seeing a conjunction between mercury and Venus
( i haven’t included Uranus at this point )
mercury sun conjunct i see DEC 30
i also see a change in trend with Venus Jan 2 – 13th ( Jan 9th 2017 )
lots of things change from jan 2 2017 and my interpretation
Jan 9th and then late march early April from the looks of it
on just the data ( planetary pairs ) its looking bullish .
yeah i know i can be wrong but I’ve put years into this
ill need to finish putting all this stuff together over the weekend
before really having an opinion
Sorry Joe, you’ve taken the bit between your teeth here and ran with some interesting stuff. I should have noted my conjunction work is HelioCentric based which considers the Sun as the centre.
My software converts the angle of a selected planet to price and plots on a chart to determine price points of support and resistance. Sometimes information over-load but on occasion the aspects are plentiful and you can derive turn dates, or a start date (as in case of my pitchfork pursuits from March 4th).
On Friday I see the 3 conjunctions mentioned plus opposition, square and trine aspects which warrants ‘WATCH Status’. Obviously other indicators like the 288 day count strengthen the probabilities. SPX price targets highlighted from this modelling would be 2185, 2275 or 2365 (unlikely?)
Barbara’s book on ‘to-do-list’……thanks
i had to look further so this is my rough notes
in regards to Venus and mercury only
yet there are others shown just not my interest at the moment.
long day i m tired yet its a piece of the puzzle none the less .
march 16 2017 should be start of venus bull if my memory is correct
dec 15 2017 start of venus bear market
march 5-18th 2018 im not sure of at this time
October 14, 2018 15:20:14 Mercury 6°49′ north of Venus 15.8° East
i missed the oct date yet it should be important in 2018
then there is
jan 13-18th 2019 im not sure of at this time
july 24 2019 should be the important date .
it tends to work out as a 10 month cycle of low to high or high to low
or you can call it a 20 month cycle
yet something is a miss with what im looking at
so ill leave it in complete for now .
ref for future
any thoughts on the daily chart of the sox index ?
i m focused on the move from sept 12th to date ( not sure thats a valid ending diagonal )
the weekly chart from week of aug 24 2015
looks like 5 waves up to me ( weekly chart )
I see an ending diagonal on sox starting around Oct 1, 2016.
i guess its the top of wave 3 ?
any thoughts ?
now that I understand your labeling methods I get your numbered count .
I have read about the broadening top formation which is also
called an expanding triangle , like I Said before I did see the triangle .
as for how a wave 2 or 4 can be less than a certain % retrace
I’m going to chock it up as a difference in opinions .
I do look for ideal retracement levels and it is frustrating when those ideal retracements don’t get hit yet in my opinion it is the wave formation which matters most .
I am not aware of any Elliott rule that states wave 2 or 4 must retrace x %
yet I am aware of what is typical .
I have seen more times then not a wave 4 for example retrace .382 of waves 1 through 3 and also retrace .50 of just wave 3 . I have used that
formula for a very long time to help define key support of wave 4 .
othr times I see ( rare ) a .236 retrace of waves 1-3 and also a .382 of just the 3rd wave . it doesn’t change the wave count from being a 4 th wave yet it does frustrate me .
another thing I’ve used for years and its worked many times yet not always .
once a 5 wave form has been made ( any clean 5 ) I look for a .382 and .786 time retrace . wave 2’s can run out 1 degree further though and if that fails I assume my wave count is wrong .
hence 5 waves in 10 bars would retrace for 3.4 bars 7.8 bars to as far as 10.3 bars in a wave 2 .
the main tming being .382 and .786
also another fibonacii series I run for retracements following
a 5 wave move and I’ve found it works best on upwards moves
yet probably will work for drops in a true bear market
I take a clean 5 wave move ( if it’s not a clean 5 it won’t work )
5 waves down I then use fibonaccii retracements using
.382 .50 .786 and .886 and I also using fibonaccii ratios in time
hence 10 bars down in 5 waves and the grid of both time retrace and price retrace , more times then not they hit ( time and price match )
lastly if it was an A B 12345 I’d only focus on the 5 waves ignoring
the a and b waves . It’s short term timing yet it’s useful .
you won’t find that in any book.
as for must retrace levels ? for another day perhaps , thanks for clarifying
why you chose numbers ,
TO THE “CYCLES” OF ALL THINGS.. …. THE CYCLES WHICH HAS BROUGHT US ALL TOGETHER HERE IN THIS FORUM.. . I SAY “THANK YOU”….. IT IS AN HONOR TO BE ALONGSIDE OTHERS OF LIKE MIND………
TO ALL THOSE OF LIKE MIND THAT ARE HERE IN THIS FORUM [JODY, PURVEZ, JOE, ANDRE, LIZ, VALLEY, WAYDOWN, “”PETER”” – AND EVERYONE ELSE I HAVE OVERLOOKED – MERRY ….MERRY CHRISTMAS TO EACH OF YOU! YOU’S ALL “ROCK”!!
Thank you and Merry Christmas to you and everyone!!
S&P weekly candle shooter looks good – the 2277 Top still in place:)
Have a great weekend!
that weekly candle looks like a great topping candle – AND – that topping candle for the SPX on the weekly time frame – still closed outside the top BB.
what i like is that bullish sentiment is through the roof, and eyes are looking to higher prices after a ‘pullback’.
few are calling for a top – so jody, you and i are lone voices up here calling for a top…. will we be ‘crushed’ by the ‘herd’??
I like the fact that no-one is calling the top. I have been watching the ending pattern on all 4 indices Dow, Comp, S&P and Rut play out for awhile now.
If everyone was pointing it out it would not be a surprise and the markets love to surprise folks.
Everyone watches the same charts for the most part and I am actually amazed that no-one has really picked up on this terminal pattern..
To answer your question – Anything is possible I guess but as long as S&P 2277 remains we are correct and another red day puts us that much further from Dow 20,000 which i believe will no be reached for at least a decade from now or even longer.
Something that is crazy my birthday is 2-27-70 or 22770 – S&P High 2277 It was meant just for me! hahaha! jkjk..
Oh and lets not forget the DJT – Gartley Pattern – on the monthly chart..
Drop the mic and exit stage left..
Thank you for sharing your stochastics settings. It is very close to Bill Williams’ Awesome Oscillator which is not avaliable on all platforms, so I can use your settings to emulate it.
I am very aware of your wave count and i do see it
for the record i have read through many of Prechters work
and dug into Elliott wave theory seriously from 1996 to the 2009 lows
where i finally stopped my subscriptions . Bob is a very good market
timer yet his wave counts at times i feel are biased which in additions
to steve hochbergs terrible wave counts at times i gave up on them
yet not Elliott wave . i like your open minded thinking which is why i come here
because i know your doing your best to get it right .
That said and from a timing perspective only i have for the past several years
had an issue with the 1982 bull market starting point .
1932 to 1966 was a 34 year rally . ( im leaving out the details )
my weekly indicators ( excell spread sheet formulas ) label the week of
july 5th as the low point ( indicator ) and July 5 1966 as the peak .
this was an exact 34 year time period . the next cycle low in the indicators
from which the market turned up in earnest was the week of July 16 1984
yes i know indicators lag etc… yet i m keeping apples to apples.
At the moment i have no basis for a wave 2 of sorts a base to call time from
yet it is my future research so im just passing it along .
odd timing , 1932 to 1966 was 34 years , 34 * .618 equals 21 years
1966 plus 21 yrs = 1987 and we got a big crash that year .
34 years times .50 is 17 years which would imply 1983 yet the
low in 1984 was where the market took off from . not perfect fib wise
yet i find it interesting . 34 *.382 = 12.988 years ( 13 years )
1966 + 13 was 1979 .
My take though is that from 1966 to 1984 we were both going into and coming out of a bear market which lasted roughly 18 years .
1932 to 1966 34 years 1966 to 1984 a 52% time retrace and a sideways
move. 1984 plus 34 years is the year 2018 and in a perfect world
July 2018 a top of importance .using percentage moves
the dow rose from 41.22 to a high of 1001.11 or 24.2869 times the 41.22 low
taking the july 1984 low of 1078.95 and multiplying it by the same amount
i get a potential target of 26204.45.
i know its speculative yet no matter what i look at the year 2018 keeps showing up
in my work . price targets aside the timing allows for higher prices as i see it .
what i also find interesting at this juncture is if i use the 18 year narrowing range
from 1966 to 1984 and i take luri’s example of a broadening top which
would have had to begin in the year 2000 then again the year 2018 is a prime
the highs in 1997 were also important
1997 21 yrs from
1984 34 years from
1963 55 years from
1929 89 yrs from .
how these all fit remains to be seen
Sept 1929 a top
June 25 1962 was a low ( yahoo data so can be a day off )
July 1984 a 2nd wave low
oct 1997 a 4th wave low
the 1997 low and 1962 lows were 35 years apart .
1929 plus 34 yrs = 1963 + 34 =1997 + 34 =2031 ( the next major turn perhaps ? )
1984 appears to be the starting point is all i m getting at
and i find it odd i see this 34 year periodicity.
2007 minus 34 = 1973 ( a major peak and collapse in the 1974
if this 34 year period has any meaning then i cannot see how 2018
is a low . then i throw in the usa politics and the mid term elections
who knows yet im on board with you that we are seeing a major top
in stock markets world wide and not just the usa .
33.6 years is about 144* of Uranus so i’m not surprised you see a cycle there.
Bob Prechter told me he doesn’t trade. Hochberg’s counts don’t even make sense most of the time. They’re often laughable. I get angry because it gives EW a really bad name.
In terms of tops, if I back out to a 9 day chart, I can measure the A wave from the 2009 bottom to about 12935 and then take that measurement to the C wave up and get a potential top at 20,681 (1,618 X the A wave). What’s interesting is that it’s doable on a small scale (barely). Wave 3 would have to tank quickly (in a few days) to about 18,660 (to get into the area of the first) and then head up again to almost the same length as the third wave and it would just make it. But how realistic that is, I don’t know.
But otherwise, we’re just about at a top. And 4/5 combinations in an ending diagonal usually take less time than the length of the third wave, which has taken 6 weeks, so I give this market about a month give or take a week or so.
2277 has been memorialized by your birthday! – it absolutely HAS to be the “TOP”!
i was playing with alternative views for the SPX, and here is another potential. did we see a complex/complicated D wave on the monthly time frame? [shout out to joe as per my labeling with letters :-))] D waves are “headfakes” – the same as B waves. there is an underlying sense of the ‘phony’ to the wave [in this case, central bank ‘put’]
so on the chart, the potential is that since feb of 2016 we were in the ‘e’ wave of the larger wave D. it accounts for the absolutely ’emotional’ nature of prices. once an ‘e’ wave has spiked and played out [shaking out the very last of the weak players], its nature is to turn on a dime, so no doddling. [so we should be looking for this ‘no doddling’ behavior on the turn and on the decline’
That would leave us ‘potentially’ moving into an E wave of cycle size to the downside. That would indicate that “emotional” will be off the chart ‘bearish’. it should be a sight to behold.
here is the dow version [monthly time frame] of the spx alternative presented above.
and here is my alternative count for the RUT – which lines up with the spx and dow.
are you starting to see a ‘theme’ here??
:-)) i need the ‘critics’ to crawl out from under their ‘cycle’ rocks and rip apart my alternative counts nya//
ok, before you all rip apart my counts….i have amended ALL of them. the D wave is better labeled a zigzag, so i have replaced the a/b/c/d/e with w/x/y/x/z —- read and weep baby!!!….read …IT and …weep!
so here is the relabeled RUT….just mentally do the same for the spx/dow/nya
I have been looking at the larger expanding triangle on Dow and S&P for about a year or so it is a possibility – but on your Monthly S&P chart draw your trend line from the top of the Oct 07 candle and come across the Feb. 2015 top.
Then on the bottom use the March 09 low and come up and touch as many bottoms as you can.. LMK what you think..
its the truth — i generally “TRY” to touch as many bottoms as possible – REALLY i mean it!! ……
you mean bottom touching like this??
here jody, here is same chart with top line extended back? i also changed a/b/c/d/e to w/x/y/x/z
My McAfee freaks out when I click on the link.. I did see a little though and that is not what I was talking about.. Come in with the bottom trend line and allow some of the wicks to over throw.. Go from March 09 to Nov 16 bottom
Come off the top where you have B labeled – Oct 2007
You caught my attention with the 9 day chart
I use a 36 day chart but I had to create it with excell
I am ‘re typing my original reply and I’m accepting
My cell phone browser has issues lol so using chrome which
I hate .
I can’t rule out a strong decline into Jan 20 th since my model
Still points to a low at that time ,
If we do see a decline unfold triggered by the electoral college vote
On Monday as well as mercury turning retrograde the same day
Then your ending diagonal becomes front and center to me.
My wave count calling this a 3rd wave implies higher prices into
Ideally Jan 24th so I’ll admit I’m wrong next week and the trigger
Looks to be political regardless of the outcome
I have an idea for you in regards to your broadening top formation
Look at both the percentage moves of each leg as well as the
Percent retrace of each leg .
Example wave a moved x percent wave b moved x percent
Wave b retraced x percent of a etc… By using actual percent moves as
Well as retracements I think you could pin down an ideal spot for a top
If this is the pattern that’s playing out .
If wave b retraced 1.5 times a as an example and wave c retraced 1.5 of wave b as example
Then maybe and just maybe you will see some correlation between each leg.
I have done this in the past yet I let it go so need to go back and think it through
Doing just as I mentioned above . Broadening tops are a sign of a major top if my memory
Is correct .
I used to love triangles yet I’ve come to hate them 🙂
I’ve always hated 4 th waves
Thanks for the reply Peter
Monday might be a very strange and abnormal day in the USA !
Or not ……..
Let’s see if the ellites by breaking the hatch act managed to being
The next civil war
Joe, I saw your comment above. ( I can’t rule out a strong decline into Jan 20 th since my model
I see the markets coming down into the Jan 20th also. I have been shorting the markets since last week in three equal batches. Some thing out of left field is going to hit the markets. Most likely, some kind of a political event will unnerve the markets. I will pull my shorts off the table if we see the Dow surpass the 20,039 level. Good luck to all.
Joe, what levels are you looking at, if indeed we come down to the Jan 20th level?
Andre, please forgive if I misspelled your name wrong. Do you see Jan 20th as some kind of a pivotal day in the markets?
Thank you in advance.
20/1/17 is a major date so it will be a pivotal day. But within a downtrend. This weekend is major change in trend.
make that 1/20/17
Thank you Andre” I see the POSSIBILITY of some kind of a flash crash scenario coming out of the blue into the Jan 20th time area. I am not a hard core bull nor a bear in the last year, although I have made more money being long. I just saw a twitter feed stating years ending in 7 are extremely bearish years. Please note. I have not verified this myself. Will do in the remaining days of 2016. Please use your own discernment with the above info. All the best every one !
i Have no downside targets at this time .
Peters wave count is what im thinking through in depth .
something is odd for me so just take this as a grain of salt .
July 5 1932 to Jan 8 1973 was 42 years 2 months and 25 days
a low to high count . ( its based on some indicators )
Sept 30 1974 plus 42 yrs 2 months and 25 days is Dec 25 2016
and this longer term indicator is a record overbought reading .
My short term oscillator has turned down
the 10 day is overbought
the weekly is pegged and most overbought in at least 4 years .
weekly gann resistance sits at 20195 ( cash dow has to close above the to be bullish )
weekly gann support sits on cash dow at 19508 ( dow needs to close below )
im going to keep an open mind at this point and let the market decide
that time count is way off
ok i get it
these are old notes so thinking this stuff through
july 5 1932 low to sept 30 1974 low was 42 years 2 months and 25 days
adding 42 years 2 months and 25 days to the sept 30 1974 low
targets dec 25 2016 .
that is a very long low to low to high count .
I’m not sure where your dates are from, Joe, but I believe the operative dates for a George Lindsay bottom-to-bottom-to-top resolution should be July 8, 1932 and October 4, 1974, or 15,428 calendar days. That same number of days from the October 4, 1974 low would take you to December 30, 2016!
just a reference for you
years ending in 7’s do tend to
have bearish moves yet the entire
year is not always bearish .
1907 was a crash
1927 a was high yet as well as the peak in home prices in usa
1937 the first peak following the 1932 low peak / drop
1946-1949 bear market
1956- 1957 bear market
1958 was up
1967 was flat ( up and down sideways market )
1977 was a bear market
1987 big boom and crash
1997 was generally up
2007 was the top
2017 ? id have to run the statistics to see
Thanks Joe for the clarifications on the years ending in 7
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