The Clock is Ticking
We’re a little closer to a top in the US indices — in time and wave structure, not in distance. That’s because, the SP500 closed on Friday at the exact same level we were at a month ago. In other words, we haven’t made much progress in a month. This is not what I’d consider a bullish market by any stretch of the imagination.
The waves up are corrective and showing rather dramatic signs of coming to an end.
NQ is very possibly tracing out an ending diagonal, while ES appears to be in the late stages of an ending expanding diagonal, which is an extremely rare pattern. Both project a top within imminent reach.
Looking at the SP500, which has the same ending diagonal pattern, it also appears to be in a longer term wedge. Wedges never end well for anyone following them.
There’s little left to trade from a swing-trader’s perspective. Be careful with long trades, as many assets have had “failed waves” to the upside. They start well, but end up coming right back down to the start. It’s often less risky to sit on your hands and wait until the top. Surprises will be to the downside until we top.
Currency pairs this weekend are difficult to call. We have corrective waves in both directions on a short-term basis, so it’s impossible to provide a prediction on direction. But the bigger picture is that they’re very close to a turn.
Investor sentiment is up this week, as would be expected.
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Ryder Cup
I just finished watching the final session of golf’s Ryder Cup, the US vs. Europe. Europe annihilated the US. Congratulations to the very talented and spirited European team!
The crowds in France, where it was held, were perhaps the largest and loudest in the history of this event. I would have to think that a lot of the crowd exuberance was a reaction the worldwide political situation, and to the cycle top that we’re currently in.
I’m working on a blog post today (don’t know if I’ll get it finished today) which identifies some of the relevant traits of these cycles tops, contrasting the changes at a similar top at about the year 1600. The similarities are striking.
One of those similarities is the weather. It’s turning colder and I’m expecting an extremely cold winter, so time to prepare. Our temperatures for Calgary, Alberta this time of year are 15° C (59° F). It’s currently 3° C (37 °F) midday and predictions are for a high of 4° over the next week, slowly heading down below zero (32°F). Nights will be below freezing for the next two weeks (and have been for the past week).
Winter has begun super early here. We had a very late start to the summer and looking back, I’d have to say it was only about three months long. We’re slightly more than 300 miles (500 km) north of the US border.
Markets always top when climate turns down; that’s what history tells us.
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Elliott Wave Basics
There are two types of Elliott wave patterns:
- Motive (or impulsive waves) which are “trend” waves.
- Corrective waves, which are “counter trend” waves.
Motive waves contain five distinct waves that move the market forward in a trend. Counter trend waves are in 3 waves and simply correct the trend.
All these patterns move at what we call multiple degrees of trend (in other words, the market is fractal, meaning there are smaller series of waves that move in the same patterns within the larger patterns). The keys to analyzing Elliott waves is being able to recognize the patterns and the “degree” of trend (or countertrend) that you’re working within.
Impulsive (motive) waves move in very distinct and reliable patterns of five waves. Subwaves of motive waves measure out to specific lengths (fibonacci ratios) very accurately. Motive waves are the easiest waves to trade. You find them in a trending market.
Waves 1, 3, and 5 of a motive wave pattern each contain 5 impulsive subwaves. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend waves and move in 3 waves.
Countertrend waves move in 3 waves and always retrace to their start eventually. Counrtertrend (corrective waves) are typically in patterns — for example, a triangle, flat, or zigzag. Waves within those patterns can be difficult to predict, but the patterns themselves are very predictable.
Fibonacci ratios run all through the market. They determine the lengths of waves and provide entry and exit points. These measurements are really accurate in trending markets, but more difficult to identify in corrective markets (we’ve been in a corrective market in all the asset classes I cover since 2009).
To use Elliott wave analysis accurately, you must be able to recognize the difference between a trend wave (motive) and a countertrend wave (corrective). There’s very much more to proper Elliott wave analysis, but this gives you the basics.
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The Market This Week
Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts). Not much news for the US indices.
Even though we're at a new high this weekend, we're still waiting for the fifth of the fifth wave to end. It appears that on an hourly chart that we're in the final stages of an ending expanding diagonal, which is an ending wave. If that's the case, the upside is extremely limited.
My preference is for this continuation of fourth wave pattern (a remaining C wave down) is that of a expanded flat. However, technically, it could also be a running flat. At the present time, the B wave (that's the ABC wave up from about 2532) is longer than the A wave (marked as the 4th wave down from January 29, 2018). A regular flat registers as an expanded flat when the B wave is over 105% of the length of the A wave—ie, the B wave would need to reach above 2889, which is has done.
That means that the ES/SPX has multiple possibilities as to a target on the downside. Accuracy (in determining the most probable target) is going to depend upon both counting and measuring the waves to the downside. It's impossible to pick a downside target at this point in the process.
If we select all of wave 4 (on the chart—down from January 29) as the "A wave," then we're looking at an expanded flat. In that case, this outcome is the most probable:
- the C wave of a flat is typically 100 - 165% of the length of the A wave (so the target would be from 2532 - approx. 2360) - preliminary targets
There are other options:
- a running flat would trace out a C wave that is NOT longer than the A wave (in other words, it would not go to a new low). I regard this option as very low probability because it's extremely rare (I've only ever seen one of them). However, if NDX is tracing out a final impulsive pattern, its fourth wave should not be very deep, which may also restrict the length of the C wave in the SP500.
Volume: Volume ticked up with Wall Street back at their desks after the summer break. However, this week, it's headed back down. The lack of volume again foreshadows a turn.
Summary: We're waiting for a top in a B wave, which will result in a C wave to a new low. My preference is the larger structure (from January 29) represents an expanded flat. Once the c wave (down) is complete, expect a final fifth wave to a new high. That fifth wave up to a new high will be the end of the 500 year bull market.
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Thank you SIR PETER for the update..are you still targeting N100 at 7700..to 7900..before the turn?
I had said that’s a possibility but I didn’t know if it would make it that far. I also said, “On the other hand, if we break down below the lower trendline, then we’re in the fourth wave down and the third wave would likely be complete (I can also count the wave up as having traced out a full five waves of the third).”
Thank you..that means a turn could be imminent..going to unwind some long positions tomorrow..thank you SIR PETER!
Looks more like the 7900 could be possible with the strong AH..Looking like N100 should hit a new high tomorrow!
There is something remarkable about “Bradley in the mirror” and my old indicator. They give the same pattern 8 Oct the high and 25 Oct the low. The same beginning as in 2008. Lehman Brothers disturbed the pattern and we went down immediately on 4 Oct when the news became known.
Other important dates for the high are 2 and 4 october. So if theres an Important event we could start to decline on those dates. Be careful with youre trade. http://www.prognoseus500.nl/
Hi Peter,
is this known?
In 2008 we declined very hard from 2/4 October until mid-November.
The pension institutions must have the same amount of money in shares as in bonds on the balance sheet by a US law on 31 October each year.
As a result, we went up sharply the last week of October/ begin November, the purchase of a lot of shares.
If this is true then we are warned for a strong rebound.
Do you know if this is true or a myth?
Ringing the register on IWM 170 puts. Rolling profits into November 168 strike puts.
IWM seems to be breaking down. One by one, indices are leaving tips behind. DOW, SPX and QQQ seem to be holding up. Guess it’s just a matter of time now.
Todays gainers moving the cash dow .
BA 100 points
unh 21 pts
aapl 12 pts
mmm 8 pts
gs 7.6 pts
work in progress
Im setting up a different computer which I finally hav4e back working as of Friday .
Putting everything together the picture looks short term bullish . The 5 day and 10 Day Trin readings are on the verge of giving a medium term SELL Signal.
10 Day tick is slightly oversold , Watch Daily $tick at minus 1000 intraday to look for bottom of a wave 3 or c ( Momentum low ) Not far away now
Looks very bearish to me Joe.
Today we had a classic thrust from a triangle which looks to have already reversed as is so very typical for that pattern.
Was a great day for scalping today! Added some SPY..QQQ..and IWM calls on dip near close..holding these into Nov for final wave up before C wave starts.. still looking for 27.5k dow..3020 spx..7900 N100..1750 Russell. Looking good!
Hehe! Did the opposite quite profitably.
In the old days, you would NEVER see index contango such as we saw today. The fact that this kind of inter-market divergence could persist for almost the entire session is absolutey mind boggling
It tells you that there are very few active traders left in these markets, as when markets were “normal” traders would have jumped on that divergence in a flash when RUT went red. We are living in strange and dystopian financial times!
Any one read Marty Armstrong’s ZH article?
It is really powerful!
A good read!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-01/risk-etf-driven-liquidity-crash
Very good read..imma betting that when market crashes in 2020 IMO..this will be whats blamed for the crash. I remember the flash crash in 2015..and that was just a preview.
2020 huh? Hahahahahaha!!!! 🙂
Now come on dude, you meant when the market bottoms, did you not??
From what I have seen, it is pretty difficult to predict the primary cause of a crash. I don’t bother with looking for the catalyst. Margin calls and liquidity are always somewhere in the mix once 3 of 3 arrives. However, its rarely the primary reason for the crash. I don’t have a problem for 3 of 3 arriving in 2020. But that might mean that SPX tops out in 2019 and spends 8 to 15 months finishing a series of 1s and 2s. A good chunk of global indices have already topped and are behaving like they are in a bear market. Its been a lot easier to be short those in recent weeks. Looks like Russell has done so in the US. It has taken SPX and DOW 6 odd months to top after small caps. If Russell has already topped, SPX top may arrive in Q1 or Q2 2019. After that, its anyone’s guess how long we take to go through a series of 1s and 2s. 2007 was not an easy year for either bulls or bears, but it was a great year for scalping !
Imma mostly scalping cuz you are so right Mr Vivek. Picking a side right now is..dangerous..but that said I dont see a bear market in U.S. until 2020..economy is strong now and we just had best qtr in decades.
Woo hoo..back up she goes..Imma loving this market!
Was hoping for a good volatility spike..but no one was buying that down move today. Nice fake out..hardy har ha!
Bought some nov 165 IWM calls..way oversold.
Oversold readings on an asset not a good reason alone to go long. As you are probably aware, both oversold and overbought readings can persist for quite some time before an asset actually changes trend. All my RUT indicators remain on a “sell”.
Yes..imma very aware of how the bolinger bands work..been using em for decades..just like the sun rises and sets..so too do bolinger band readings go from overbought to oversold..imma patient..i have until nov for my IWM calls to go from way oversold to way overbought..when IWM is overbought..I will sell.
Markets rarely top on bad news. Very often, contrary to popular opinion talking about all the identifiable signals that tell you we are “there”, when they happen few expect them. It seems to me that this ought to be self-evident.
However, as traders, we do not look, or at least we should not, look at markets the same way as the average Joe does. Let me give you one example.
There is not a sane trade in the world who would think that when 30% of an index’s yearly gain is focused on three stocks alone, that we are not in serious trouble.
Some of you will immediately recognize which stocks those are and which index I am referring to. Additionally, when you have three times as many stocks on the NYSE making new lows as highs you know there is a problem, regardless of what folk are bleating about great economic news. If as a trader, you have not learned how to take a look under the hood of the market so to speak, you are probably going to end up the same place as the herd does!
Good points Mr Verne..imma personally waiting on a trend change..which as ive described..i dont think happens until at least nov..maybe not even until q1 of 2019. U.S. markets still in an uptrend and until trendlines are broken its foolish IMO to short the market unless you are scalping..but to hold longer term puts to me is a waste of moola.
I read on another web site commentary section yesterday where someone was complaining about how disappointed they were in the analysis of the well know Elliott wave analysis service, you know, the guys who literally “wrote the book”
There is one thing about these guys that I really simply cannot get my head around.
Forget about the fact that they top Hulbert’s Digest every single year as the very worst forecasting service out there….EVERY YEAR!
I have not met a single person who has followed their advice and not LOST MONEY, myself included.
HOW THE HELL, are they still in business?????!!!!!!
Their infamous obstinate call of a top earlier this year blew up a lot of accounts, and people are still PAYING for this crap???
What is worse, a number EW analysts WROTE TO THEM, and told them that call was wrong and was going to loose their clueless readers money, but did they listen?
Oh no!
Their arrogant response was that they “stood by” their wave count.
Amazing they have not been sued for malfeasance!!!!
Added some SPY 291.5 calls on dip
Once again we have a striking example today of the fact that there are no real traders left in this market. In another time, at another place, VIX trading at these levels with the myriad market alarm bells going off would have seen every trader worth a tick backing up the truck and going long volatility out the wazoo!
I think what we are seeing in markets right now in the way of complacency and outright insanity is the most ominous thing I have seen in all the years I have been trading markets. We have really gone through the looking glass!!!!!!
Of course, we could see a massive gap higher in VIX in the near future but clearly the fact that it traded back below 12 today in the first place is truly hard to believe….
Mr Verne..low vix just tells me that its a good trading environment..i love it because options are much much cheaper..Unless we get some sorta event..we should see smooth sailing til the mid terms. Id short volatility right now but dont like holding that overnight unless there was a good spike and imma gonna fade it over a few days.
Well Sir Charles, I suppose that is the reason they refer to it as “implied” volatility, but we all know at times there can be a huge difference between what is “implied”, and what is “implicit”! 🙂
Oh most definitely..there will be fireworks soon enough!
The price action in DJIA today was another astounding example. I could tell from the open interest on put options that I was one of the few people shorting this ridiculous morning ramp higher. Where the hell are all the traders???!!!!!
Agree. I’m short Dow now with a stop at the intraday high. If we don’t shift rapidly lower by tomorrow I’ll be out regardless of price. I need to see acceleration to the downside. Everyone is expecting S&P to hit 3000 including me! Could it be a bull trap before we rip through it after a correction imminently.
Already up 50% on DIA puts and VIX calls gobbled up this morning.
Am I sounding like some sort of raving lunatic or has the banksters managed to turn otherwise sane folk into trading eunuchs???
Why isn’t everyone absolutely hammering these phony death rattles?
Is is like picking up free money in a corner for heaven’s sake people!!!
$tran
daily chart
Snowing like crazy up here. Lots and lots of it.
Daily $sox
the narrowing triangle that has been tracing out all year is coming to an end.
daily $sox
there has been 14 swings in this narrowing triangle ( not textbook swings )
the larger pattern with in the 14 swings looks like the aug 17th low at 1304.22 is Key.
just my observation
UUP goin back up? Dollar gonna make ’em holler.
Oh the weather outside is frightful…! 😬
Tweaked my trading system today..to account for scalping both ways..ready to make money on both puts and calls..instead of just buying the dips..I was leaving too much on the table..thanks Mr Verne for the gentle reminders. Message received..loud and clear..i spent a good four hours reprogramming..tweaking..and testing. Looks good now.😄 rather be quick and nimble than holding for weeks or months..so i sold almost all of my long ETF option holdings to focus more on scalping and a few concentrated trend trades. Went long IWM but no other long positions except 50 or so stocks..many are up so much that I will sell some before year end and push the rest into 2019 to spread the major tax hit.
Imma thinking i can make more with some intraday swing trades than with my longer term calls as the risk..reward isnt what it was when we started this b wave around 2600..feels long in the tooth.
Most welcome Sir Charles!
You and I are the last of a dying breed, my friend…. 🙂
Joe,
Any thoughts on the Dow after it crossed above your 26,657 level?
My next target is 27.5k for Dow and 3020 for SPX.
I am expecting a turn today. They could get really cute and close it at the highs and ambush everyone in futures.
If that is the scheme, VIX will give it away with a beautiful hammer and a green close. Stand by!
Opportunities for bi-directional whipsaw trades might be coming to a close. It looks like we just might be completing some kind of triangle.
Expecting a downturn soon? What are ya seeing..
Moment of truth for the treasury market. 30y yield chart…I still think 3.26 – 3.30 area should hold. Multiple trend lines converging at this zone.
https://invst.ly/8s2km
Ed
No thoughts on the market at the present .
Staying open minded at this point
The ED count is looking plausible with a b wave triangle just done, and a C up of the final 5th wave zig zag underway.
IWM now up almost $2 from my entry yesterday..looking for a new high above 173.39.
Nice call! 😇
Thank you Mr Verne..was in close to $164. Hoping for rebound to $170 or beyond.
I traded it as a counter trend bounce and backed up the truck for more 170 strike puts. I have to say you played the counter trend bounce quite nicely! 🙂
Looks to me like another great day to buy the dip..thank you Mr Market!
Adding some spy calls and vix puts
Taking 50% pop on IWM puts and double on DIA puts.
We don”t yet have a final turn and the banksters are still firmly in charge. When the top is in, we demolish 2900 on the FIRST impulse down…
Taking 30% on VIX 11.00 strike calls. Now buying huge lots on each and every move below 12.00,
Easy money….!
I suspect we have a final wave up just ahead…getting the big cannons ready….!
Look for the banksters to defend 2900. That would be the smart level to open BTFD trades. I expect a bounce there….
I don’t expect it, but if price gaps past the 2900 pivot, there will be blood…!
Deploying SPY 288/290 bull put credit spread expiring next week Friday for limit credit of 0.40 per .
Objective is to hold puts at zero cost basis.
I am expecting that we have seen the Low today 2910-2905 and we are going to make the final High for this period. The high is tomorrow (morning?) and then a decline into the weekend. Monday can even make a Higher High.
My indicators could be wrong so be carefull with youre trade 🙂
http://www.prognoseus500.nl/
Yep!
I just LOVE hammering the banksters when they engineer the ridiculous short term counter-trend ramps that let you massively lower cost basis on your positions then clean up on inevitable reversal. Very few traders do it and instead allow themselves to be stopped out since as we all know, there is no such thing as market manipulation….No Siree! 🙂
If the banksters do not hold 2900, we are going straight to 2800 and it will haapen so fast it will make your head spin…!
I think it holds and we rip to a slight new S&P high only to reverse abruptly and crash down to Peters targets. Need to trap some more bulls via a reversal to get maximum effect! Just need to hope the banksters dont manipulate the coming drop into a delay.
Agree with you guys – Markets have tapped a very important trend line around 2905. But I have no way of knowing if we get another pop or not. So doing my same dumb thing – covering half my shorts and will look to sell the pop to get back to my full size. We are in danger zone on interest rates. A multi decade trend line is in sights and tomorrow is a big event day for treasuries. My view is that we see a reversal there (kind of buy the rumor sell the news event). However, a break down further in rates market (more than 10bps higher than today’s high) will be good enough to get the wave down in equities started.
Smart move. Simply lower your cost basis on short position on next ramp higher. It’s the best way to play the banksters and compond your gains…! 😉
There must be a hughe up into 8 or 9th that can be a higher then the last one. Expecting tomorrow a high. then a decline into the weekend. Monday up to the highest high. Nearly the same as Bradley. It may be strange but I have 3 indicators who are pointing to that also. Be care………………..
Nope! No more ups and downs I am afraid. We are either in a fourth wave or we are DONE. Period!!!!
At the moment of truth. There are no short sellers in this market so if the banksters cannot defend this pivot with no opposition they are in serious trouble and the bloated market may have reached its tipping point where even unlimited bankster largesse cannot keep it aloft!
VIX bull flag…
“Once more into the breach dear friends, once more…”
When this beast finally turns, the relentlessness of the decline will cause as much consternation to perma-bulls, as the move up the last ten years did to perma-bears!! It’s gonna be sumpthin’….!!!! 😊😊😊😊
Yep – The set up is here. Those who do not have shorts in place may not get another chance. Now that I have covered half my short, I need a bounce
Don’t you worry You will get it. Look for a move back up to kiss the 2900 pivot it what just might be the final death rattle and if now proves resistance, time to back up the eighteen wheeler…!!!
If the ramp prices back past it, we be on the cusp of the greatest short entry opportunity of the last ten years!!
People have no idea the kind of carnage this totally bankster-screwed up market has the potential to unleash. I am holding long term long volatility positions that I have no intention of unwinding until volocaust II is complete.
I am looking for a thousand per cent return on that position. Yep…its that bad!!
As expected, they are defending the 2900 pivot.
The had better hold it or it’s curtains for them….
O.K. all you BTF dippers! Get busy! HeHe!
I actually bought some puts today..
Welcome aboard Sir Charles!
I actually SOLD quite a few myself (but you knew that!)
What I would simply love to see now is a frenetic couple ‘a billion dollar dump to spike price back up to around 2900 followed by a great big FAT red candle….Oh Yeah! Come on banksters and BTF dippers…do yer thing!
Peter T
im just going to keep it simple .
$NYA Yearly chart has 5 waves up and the closer I look at the wave
relationships it appears to me that we a case for a completed wave count
at this years highs .
wave 1 lasted 2 yearly bars and wave 2 was the low in the year 2011.
wave 3 was weak and lasted 3 yearly bars yet from the low in 2011 to the high
in 2015 the total time was pushing 5 years in length .
wave 4 bottomed in early 2016 and is now in its 3rd yearly bar ( yearly chart )
the $NYA also shows that the point where wave 5 equals wave 1 and where wave 5 equals .618 of waves 1 through 3 was the range of 13218-13474.
https://imgur.com/ePVcvx1
quarterly chart : Im unsure of how to count which is why my post
https://imgur.com/RGB9TpW
we had a discussion a few months back about extended 5th waves and I
had disagreed . Today im just showing an example which I am having an issue with the wave count . The yearly chart is simple yet the quarterly chart wave 5 of wave 3 looks like it is extended and it is this ” extension ” that I debate within myself only .
charts posted just for observation .
To cut to the chase Joe, you believe a top is in…am I right?
VIX flying a series of bull flags. Is this party just getting started??!!!
I really would like to see an intra-day counter-trend bounce that gets stuffed!
The battle for the 2900 pivot has been joined ladies and gentlemen. Make no mistake about it. The immediate fate of the bankster cabal will be revealed by how this cash session closes. I remain agnostic as to the outcome. These guys will not go gently into that good night…they never have!
ED
Merc venus and the moon is oct 10
we will see how the market reacts soon enough yet
as I understand the venus merc cycle the meeting ( conjuntion )
of venus and mercury is the starting point of the venus bull cycle
yet it should be the meeting point of Mercury the SUN and Venus .
which is not shown in this ( it doesn’t show the sun )
Oct 10th : https://imgur.com/N203qKV
Sept 25 2019 would be the starting point of the next venus bear cycle .
https://imgur.com/LKMz15U
Im not making any claims about the market im just showing the
reasoning behind the dates.
within any cycle we will see failures yet the dates and the meanings behind them
don’t change .
we are entering a bullish venus mercury cycle . the next time to focus on
being bearish in the larger scope to me is not until next year despite what appears to be a completed wave count on the NYA and despite we are still in a bearish cycle into January based on the mars Uranus cycle .
we are only a few days away so im just going to let the market show itself
the nov 7-9th time frame is another short term cycle high ( based on mars Uranus )
using the same program as above ill highlight that date .
Nov 9 is the meeting of mercury Jupiter and the moon .
https://imgur.com/yiIdU1e
Note: im only showing these planetary pairs and 1 pair is not enough
yet at this juncture this is the pair im focused on .
for those who follow the Bradley model ill not the conjunctions of
mercury and Jupiter are generally positive ( a high of sorts )
here is the basics of the Bradley model and think of this as very short term
https://imgur.com/Rz04ApZ
as noted above . These are just dates to consider for market turns .
I have no solid opinion or data to back this up at the present .
don’t bet your money based on any of this just keep in mind the dates don’t change
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