World Cycles Institute

A SWIFT Kick to the Dollar


There was an article that came out at the end of the day Friday on zerohedge that I was going to comment on, but then I had defend myself when I commented a major clam analysis … and it just put me completely off.)

This followed a commenter posting and promoting a competitive site, which no business owner would allow (and I’ve been extremely vocal about this practice).

The article is here.

I’ll address the US Dollar in the coming weekend post.

This is the last week for the comments area on this free blog. The blog posts will continue each weekend without the ability to comment.

A July 4 Present

Above is the daily chart of the NYSE exchange, which as of now, is set up as a flat. That means you should expect an imminent wave down to a new low in 5 waves.


Elliott Wave Basics

Here is a page dedicated to a relatively basic description of the Elliott Wave Principle. You’ll also find a link to the book by Bob Prechter and A. J. Frost.


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US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)

This chart is posted to provide a prediction of future market direction. DO NOT trade based upon the information presented here (certainly NOT from a daily chart).

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

Last week was a disappointment due to the fact that the four indices that had traced out ending diagonals had them all fail one by one at the start of the week. That meant the top that I expected was going to be put on hold while we navigated through a larger fourth wave. While I warned it might happen, it's still disappointing.

This weekend, we're still looking for the bottom of this fourth wave.

Once that bottom is in place, we'll be looking for a new high across the SP500, the DOW, the Nasdaq, and all the other NYSE sub-indices. It looks like we have a C wave of a fourth wave down still to go and then and final wave up to a new high. That will lead to a what I believe will be five waves down over the balance of the summer to a bottom below 2100 in ES.

I'm expecting the C wave of a regular flat to the downside. In that case, a first wave should drop to the 2725 area (previous fourth of one lesser degree) and then bounce in a second wave to the 2875 area (62% retrace), before a third wave down to about 2250. After that, a fourth and fifth wave down to under 2100 will round out the drop.

There is an option of a set of zigzags down to the same level. If that's the pattern that traces out, the retraces will not be as strong as they would be with the C wave of a flat. We'll get a lot of information about the probably path from the first wave down.

The coming drop will be a world-wide phenomenon across all most all sectors. It will last throughout the summer months and most likely culminate in a low and final round of QE.

As I've said since the low on Dec. 26, the waves up are corrective in the NYSE-related indices, and as a result, will completely retrace. Expect an imminent top and a major move to a new low under 2100.

Summary: Expect an imminent top to complete this large, corrective "B wave" up from the Dec. 26 low. The overall pattern is a record-breaking broadening top (not an EW pattern).

I'm looking for a dramatic drop in a 4th wave to a new low. ES will eventually target the previous fourth wave area somewhere under 2100.

Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final new high in a fifth wave of this 500 year cycle top.

No Chart Show this week due to Independence Day.


Trader's Gold Subscribers get a comprehensive view of the market, including hourly (and even smaller timeframes, when appropriate) on a daily basis. They also receive updates through the comments area. I provide only the daily timeframe for the free blog, as a "snapshot" of where the market currently trades and the next move on a weekly basis.

I do a nightly video on the US indices, USD Index (and related currency pairs), gold, silver, and oil).


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CANCELLED THIS WEEK (due to Independence Day)

Next Date: Wednesday, July 10 at 5:00 pm EST (US market time)


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Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.

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{ 106 comments… add one }
  • Tom C. July 6, 2019, 11:32 am

    Hi Peter
    Sorry to see that the message board is coming to an end
    I sure enjoyed the postings here and the great people on this board
    The variety of ideas and viewpoints here made for a very interesting read.
    As a parting gift to you Peter
    I’m enclosing a link that will open your eyes to the earth/ sun connection.
    The fellow who runs this site has opened my understanding to many things over the years and I know you will appreciate his great work. His research supports many of the same things you have talked about in regards to a cooling trend coming. See link below.

    p.s. Dear friends of Peter, my dear father is in the hospital and is not doing well. Please pray for my dad Pantelis.
    Thank-you and God bless you all

    • Johannes July 6, 2019, 12:27 pm

      I will sent my prayers for your dad, take care and if you like you can join our email group?

      All the Best


      • sue ver July 6, 2019, 2:50 pm

        Can I join your email group. What email should I send request. . My email under rose if not. That’s ok

  • Marie Slattery July 6, 2019, 10:10 pm

    Sending positive energy and prayers to your dad Tom..

  • Ser Ros July 7, 2019, 2:30 am

    Tom, hope your dad will recover soon.

  • Ser Ros July 7, 2019, 2:33 am

    What happens to the S&P 500 when the FED cut rates?
    Well it depends. When risk appetite is rising and rates are cut, the market rises (yellow shaded rectangles): conversely, when the risk appetite is falling, the market declines despite the rate cuts.

  • mojo July 7, 2019, 5:17 am

    Tom, God’s Peace for your dad, we are praying. Mike

  • Tom C. July 7, 2019, 9:39 am

    Dear Friends
    thank-you for your prayers
    my dad needs every prayer he can get right now
    just to update my dad’s condition
    he has lost his ability to walk
    he had a serious attack
    because his blood sugar levels got way too high
    this happened before but he recovered
    this time the recovery is not in sight
    has severe pain in his legs and he’s losing hope
    of ever returning back to his home
    thank-you again
    for all your love and prayers

  • Peter Temple July 7, 2019, 11:32 am

    A new weekend blog post is live at:

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic. Posting trade specifics does NOT serve an educational purpose, is stongly discouraged, and such comments may be removed.

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