World Cycles Institute

Ending Patterns

They’re Everywhere!

LIke lemmings, which multiply every three and a half years and end up eating themselves out of “house and home,” ending up drowing in the ocean as they search for more food, ending patterns are terminal. They end and the trend reverses.

In the case of ending diagonals, it’s a dramatic reversal. That’s just like what happens to the lemmings. The population dies en masse, but a few remain so that they can start the process all over again.

Lemmings are just like other herders — humans, who will no doubt be super-bullish as we reach new highs, something I believe will happen this week. Until then, the direction continues to be up.

Last week, I named the current topping process “The Last Waltz,” because I expected a protracted period of ups and downs to this current “B wave” in the NYSE-related indices. That’s given the fact that we’re in complex ending patterns in all the US indices.

If you were in the Chart Show this past week, you know exactly how things are going to play out, as some of these patterns were identified then. Now, they’ve spread throughout the other sub-indices.

Some of the indices have traced out almost all of an ending expanding diagonal and have one more wave left to go. Some have traced out a run-of-the-mill ending diagonal. There are subtle differences in these patterns, but the bottom line is that they will end with a dramatic turn down.

The Russell 2000 is the one that is sporting the regular ending diagonal. Here’s the chart:

Above is the two hour chart of IWM (the Russell 2000 small cap stocks).

The pattern is now a regular ending diagonal (an ending pattern). I’ve re-labelled the pattern to reflect this pattern, which will result in a final wave up to the trendline (slightly above in what we call a “throw-over”).

We’ll be looking for all the sub-indices of the NYSE to approach that high and turn down together …. sometime this week, hopefully.

What’s interesting to me is that we’re seeing ending patterns in all these NYSE sub-indices. Most are sporting ending diagonals of one type or another, which you can even see at the top of the third wave of the SP500 above (more of a megaphone, but still and ending pattern). The SP500 appears to have an ending expanding diagonal in progress. All of these patterns end with a final wave that approaches the upper trendline.

As I often say,

“Trade what you see, not what you think.”

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US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)

This chart is posted to provide a prediction of future market direction. DO NOT trade based upon the information presented here (certainly NOT from a daily chart).

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

We've been sitting at the top now for well over a month. This weekend, we're in the final leg of an ending expanding diagonal (this is an ending pattern).

All US indices require a new high. The market will not come down until they reach it. Until this happens, the direction is still up.

The next major move is to the downside.

I expect to be reviewing possible entries in the Chart Show this Wednesday.

While the NYSE is in a large 4th wave, ES and SPX are still topping out in a third wave. This non-confirmation between major indices near a top is very bearish.

The wave up from Dec. 26 in ES is clearly corrective and, as a result, must fully retrace to the downside. This is supported by the US Dollar Index, the major USD currency pairs, WTI Oil, along with DAX, TSX, and other international exchanges.

Summary: My preference is for a dramatic drop in a 4th wave to a new low. The culmination of this drop should mark the bottom of a large fourth wave in progress in the NYSE since January 29, 2018 - over a full year of Hell. It may be a dramatic drop that is quite fast; in any case, it will target the previous fourth wave area somewhere under 2100.

Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final new high in a fifth wave.

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{ 200 comments… add one }
  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 10:41 am

    I have seen enough. I think I know what is going on and how to trade it. I will ‘fess up if it turned out I was wrong. ☺

  • Bill rider May 13, 2019, 10:53 am

    Tom,

    May be a good buy point shows up on 15th or on 17th. Do you think as per energy chart we ramp higher from here till tomorrow or Wednesday.

  • Vivek Sahay May 13, 2019, 11:01 am

    Its 1pm EST. the market is at the lows. If we close around here, I will buy puts (even at this level). The 2:30 to 4:00 is very important

  • Tom C. May 13, 2019, 11:11 am

    I had a premonition last week of a 1000 pt drop
    but I did not mention it because the number was so big
    and scary it scared me
    but folks today looks like the day of fulfillment
    hard to believe

    • p. May 13, 2019, 6:08 pm

      Congrats Tom! Really happy for you and those who profited from today’s big drop.

      You shared on 5/3, “feast your eyes on the 13th of May.” I did not forget this and planned to go short in the morning as the Friday ramp was so convincing that I thought better wait till Monday. My poor timing cost me significant gains on 5/6 and today.

  • Joe Longwill May 13, 2019, 11:27 am

    Cut left over hedges in half
    Leaving the rest alone .

  • Joe Longwill May 13, 2019, 11:30 am

    2 words
    Expanded flat .
    Just a thought

    • Vivek Sahay May 13, 2019, 11:47 am

      Do you think there is enough time for that given your bullish June outlook ?

    • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 12:02 pm

      Did we break ED trend-lines?

  • mojo May 13, 2019, 12:00 pm

    QQQ most oversold (RSI5) since 12/24 and 10/11 (bottom of 1st leg down from late Sept top…

    • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 12:03 pm

      Think party just getting started?

  • Joe Longwill May 13, 2019, 12:15 pm

    A down
    B up to the new
    C down now
    Expanded flat
    The March lows must be broken ( to consider an expanded flat on cash Dow ) and I can’t rule out
    Even lower prices basis the cash Dow yet 24906 is my key .
    Plenty of time to break further to the downside all the way
    To the Jan 22 lows . But right now 24906 is my extreme to keep my eyes on
    And this entire week I’m not going to dare attempt to call it .
    I have zero opinion on where this market is going at this moment .
    Not even going to try and call it for this week .
    Untill we enter may 22 June 3 all I know is that is the cycle low period .
    Enjoy the week

    • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 1:06 pm

      Looks like it doesn’t it? If so, an interim top is in and we have a ways down to go Joe. ☺

  • Joe Longwill May 13, 2019, 12:36 pm

    Mr trump
    Your making China more competitive against the United states
    Lol
    Can’t call this China manipulating their currency .
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-yuan-on-track-for-worst-day-in-nearly-4-years-as-trade-war-escalates-2019-05-13?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 1:08 pm

      Yep! Pressure on Chinese currency and equities is going to get intense…

  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 12:42 pm

    Looks like we are consolidating losses. More downside I surmise….

  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 1:10 pm

    New lows confirm Friday’s bounce as corrective folk…wow!

  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 1:12 pm

    Waiting for a break of 2800…that event removes all doubt imho….

  • Vivek Sahay May 13, 2019, 1:31 pm

    This is a very scary market close. Last 30 min to go at the lows. Not good. I have reset some shorts through puts.

    • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 2:11 pm

      Some very strange counts out there. Insanity reigns!
      The move down today a second wave correction in an impulse UP???!!!
      You’ve got to be freaking kidding me!!!!!
      These people are $@*&%%## NUTS!!! 😬

  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 1:40 pm

    Moment of truth…2800 falls and this thing is done…!

  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 1:43 pm

    Another stealth futures unwind below 2800….?!

    • Vivek Sahay May 13, 2019, 2:08 pm

      Don’t know whether it will be stealth, but the set up is very dicey. We can get a 50 point move in SPX in either direction and VIX is at 20. Insane. We can be up 50 and then break 2800 tomorrow. The door is wide open

      • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 2:28 pm

        Well folk, to my eyes we clearly have five down on the daily chart. Am I missing somethin’?! 😉

  • Red Dog May 13, 2019, 5:02 pm
  • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 5:44 pm

    Randy is a trader’s trader! 😉

  • p. May 13, 2019, 6:07 pm

    Congrats Tom! Really happy for you and those who profited from today’s big drop.

    You shared on 5/3, “feast your eyes on the 13th of May.” I did not forget this and planned to go short in the morning as the Friday ramp was so convincing that I thought better wait till Monday. My poor timing cost me significant gains on 5/6 and today.

    • Verne Carty May 13, 2019, 7:12 pm

      You are not the only one P. Many of us missed it looking for a new high!
      There wilk be other oppotunities. ☺

    • Tom C. May 13, 2019, 8:34 pm

      May 21 will be another day to watch for
      keep that date in your note book

      • p. May 13, 2019, 8:54 pm

        Thank you Tom, thank you Verne. Won’t miss 5/21!

  • Joe Longwill May 13, 2019, 7:56 pm

    I was playing with Fibonacci numbers
    I won’t changes my cycles work because it’s fixed
    Yet I found this interesting enough to post
    Jan 26 2018 plus 34 weeks is Sept 21 2018 ( very close to the Sept 20 2018 high )
    Adding 34 weeks to Sept 20 2018 i gat May 16 2019 .
    A top to top to bottom count perhaps ?
    On another note Dec 26 2018 plus a fib 144 calendar days = May 19 2019
    I’ll bet there are more Fibonacci relationships using trading days .
    I must stick to my may 22 June 3 time frame but I find this a bit fascinating

    • Krasi Mrasi May 14, 2019, 1:30 am

      This top-to-top count is called 40 week Hurst cycle:) runs shorter for the US indexes 32-36 weeks….
      I was seeing the same patterns like above to fit all indexes, but now I am in your camp:) looking DJ from late February this is some flat probably b/B .

      On 23.Feb I have posted comment on my blog – something like this:
      “One of the best market breadth indicators is the McClellan Summation Index.
      In Dec.2018 it moved to extremes seen only in 2002 and 2008 so multimonth rally was easy call.
      After that it moved for 9 weeks from extremely oversold levels to extremely overbought. Extremely overbought like the rallys in 2003/2009/2016…. how this rallys played out:
      2003 – 13 weeks up(but 3 correction in the beginning) 9 weeks flat https://imgur.com/a/jspvoQz
      2009 – 9 weeks up 9 weeks expanded flat correction https://imgur.com/a/LyiSarI
      2016 – 10 weeks up 9 weeks expanded flat correction https://imgur.com/a/0SPvZ2H

      Currently week 9 now we should see 9-10 weeks sideway move probably expanded flat for 20 week cycle low.”

      11 weeks later we have the expected pattern on schedule and namely exactly like in 2003/2009/2016.
      I do not say new bull market has begun, what I am saying is it is unlikely that we have reversal.
      With the McClellan Summation Index showing such strength it is very unlikely to see a crash more likely just a correction.

      The patern fits with DJ,NYSE,RUT,DJT… probably EEM too. SPX/NDX not so much that is why I was watching the patterns from this post… until yesterday.
      Now I think we are seeing expanded flat for b/B and 20 week cycle low.

      • Krasi Mrasi May 14, 2019, 2:05 am

        Something like this – https://imgur.com/a/8csXAUr
        The vertical lines are the 18 month cycle lows(grey) and 4 year cycle lows(purple)

  • Tom C. May 13, 2019, 8:31 pm
    • John May 14, 2019, 4:06 am

      Thanks Tom, today we could see a big up and this will fade again..

  • Verne Carty May 14, 2019, 5:25 am

    VIX flying a bull flag so I think we have more downside.
    I missed the initial move down because I got sloppy and ignored one of the most poweful market signals there is- bteak and back-test of a bearish rising wedge. I feel like a complete schmuck as I actually posted the breaks in real time but was too much of s WUS to get positioned for what was clearly coming!
    Live and learn.
    A green VIX print will signal the start of the next move down.
    Trade safe everyone!

    • mojo May 14, 2019, 6:15 am

      WAY too hard on yourself Dude! My 2 best days by far were May 7 and 9 because I planned and stacked VOL (and booked it). Friday and Monday chopped me up (thankfully I held TQQQ 55.07 overnight for decent gain), but wanted to cuss like a sailor most of yesterday. It is tough to read whether we are ready for a breakout (ex. bull flag) or reverse, either long or short. I got a lot wrong on Fri but will get back to my game plan… I know you will too! (don’t want to sound like cheerleader, just want to get back on the right and best wave) Cheers!

      • mojo May 14, 2019, 6:21 am

        Out TQQQ @56… NOW WHAT 🙂

      • Verne Carty May 14, 2019, 6:47 am

        🙂

    • mojo May 14, 2019, 6:27 am

      I see your bull flag, my concern is stacked resistance from 18.95 to 21.50. I want (and will wait for) more OB or OS indication on at least 60min..

  • Marie Slattery May 14, 2019, 8:06 am

    Thanks Tom! Adding oil shorts..looks like this could be minor 2 up with a 3 coming
    when I post if anyone sees different feel free to counter..not always right lol

  • Marie Slattery May 14, 2019, 8:12 am

    thanx i will watch

  • Joe Longwill May 14, 2019, 10:27 am

    Just a snapshot
    I’ll be out of range so no phone for a few days .
    So far the cash Dow has taken back the 25459 and the 25555 pivots
    The 25711 level was not a pivot yet getting back above there I’d view as constructive .
    They say trade what you see ( not what you think )
    So no thinking today 🙂
    https://imgur.com/gallery/AIa54TU

  • Tom C. May 14, 2019, 10:51 am

    May 15th energy chart
    https://ibb.co/8gZHJCZ

    • Bill rider May 14, 2019, 11:19 am

      Hi Tom,

      Looks like we dip tomorrow and then ramp end of week. Is my understanding correct?

      • Tom C. May 14, 2019, 8:03 pm

        see update below

    • John May 14, 2019, 12:18 pm

      Thanks Tom, I was looking at my astro work and I have a turn date on May the 19th and 21, so I m curious if we will see a big up also on monday?My next date is May 31, this should be a low also.

      • Tom C. May 14, 2019, 8:04 pm

        yes

    • Tom C. May 15, 2019, 2:45 pm

      This energy chart I posted on the 14th played out very nicely for the 15th
      the long term blue line chart was inverted today

  • Marie Slattery May 14, 2019, 1:13 pm

    Tom is the weekly energy chart still the same ?..I think it showed a large ramp up on the 20th..

    • Verne Carty May 14, 2019, 4:24 pm

      Looks like a 5,3,5 up corrective retrace underway. If so, we should see one more five up after a three wave move down tomorrow and a lower low to complete this move down.
      VIX suggesting move down not quite done. Let Mr. Market be your guide, and trade safe!

    • Tom C. May 14, 2019, 8:04 pm

      yes

  • Tom C. May 14, 2019, 8:00 pm

    Energy chart update for may 15 thru 17
    heads up folks
    next week is going to be mucho loco
    https://imgshare.io/image/may-13th-17th-energy-chart-blue-line-and-red-line.p98nd

    • Willem May 15, 2019, 6:24 am

      Thanks Tom,

      watch Friday expiration day and that is mostly UP and expecting a HIGH on 21th
      succes it looks good

      • Tom C. May 15, 2019, 6:59 am

        yes 21st is the high
        attached is the energy chart for next week
        it’s a wild one!
        https://ibb.co/G0zbH9w

        • John May 15, 2019, 8:56 am

          Thanks Tom, I agree with May 21, but for now we should also make higher lows en higher tops..

        • Bill rider May 15, 2019, 11:40 am

          So do you think todays ramp is done and we will go down from here. I am trying to position for 21st ramp, But I was expecting a lower low test first. Doesn’t look like we get and test below 2800 now.

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 2:32 am

    Indeed!
    I have over the years developed a few trading strategies after going through the school of hard knocks and learning one has to take personal responsibility for one’s trading success or failure.
    It is not enough to have just good analysis. One also has to have a systematic and consistent approach for disciplined entry and exit of trades. It seems although I am well aware of this, every few months I get to re-learn it after trying to get cute!
    I have previously shared regarding the way I use credit spreads to get positioned during counter-trend market moves.
    Anothet pattern I noticed over the years is a pattern I call “The Coil”. I would see price explode from this kind of formation but would often miss the opportunity because someone would dismiss my observation because perhaps it did not meet the “technical” definition of the designation I assigned it! That was one of the things that stamped clearly in my mind that analysis and trading are two different things. Related, But DIFFERENT!
    Why am I saying all this?
    I will tell you.
    VIX is now forming one of the biggest coils I have seen in some time.
    Do I have a proper technical descriptor for the pattern?
    No I don’t.
    Who gives a rat’s petootie, as long as you can profitably TRADE it!!!?
    Trade safe! 😇

    • Vivek Sahay May 15, 2019, 6:44 am

      Agree with you there. I was able to re-short on yesterday’s bounce (not the full size though as my last offers were up at 2860 and 2870). Still better than being flat. Price action is atrocious. As a trader, this chart looks way too dicey to be not short. Of course things may turn around on a dime with some headline. But gut to my head, I would rather be short than long.

      • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 7:13 am

        Absolutely. In my trading time-frame, I view the move up as countter-trend and traded it accordingly. Speaking again of a TRADER’S time frame, it is difficult, imho, to consider a 700 point DJIA move as being counter-trend. We could today STILL be in only a smaller b of a B up with a small c up yet to come. My expectation of a re-test of the broken 2910-2920 shelf may have been a bit early.

        • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 8:11 am

          Of course, the other possibility is that the last low was the b of an expanded flat, in which case we just completed a c up with resumption of the down-trend and new lows ahead. A green print today negates this alternate scenario imho…

  • Marie Slattery May 15, 2019, 7:29 am

    Morning, thank you Tom..you work and sharing is appreciated ..hope next week plays out that will be a profitable one..
    Verne..thanx for all your additions..everything always helps.happy trading today

  • mojo May 15, 2019, 7:34 am

    QQQ trying to rally as VIX & TVIX move up. “Usually VIX wins the battle. In meetings for 3 days, best to you trading.

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 8:18 am

    Yep! We are heading higher as NDX leade the way. Glad I rung the register at the morning’s low.
    Now THAT’s more like it! 😉

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 8:29 am

    Another interesting way of looking at recent price action is as a down-trend channel on the 5 hour chart. You can see that price has fairly consistenly ping-ponged in alternate tags of the upper and lower trend channels. Question today is whether, looking at that channel, we tag the upper or lower boundary next ( or of course break above, or below )…. ☺

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 8:32 am

    Beautiful! Isn’t it? 🙂

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 8:36 am

    BTW, look out for “truncations” and don’t over-stay your welcome!
    These banksters are VERY tricksy! 😁

    • Peter Temple May 15, 2019, 8:37 am

      I wouldn’t worry about truncations. There’s never been one.

      • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 9:01 am

        I knew you would say that, ergo the quotation marks ☺☺☺

        • Peter Temple May 15, 2019, 9:03 am

          Am I getting too predictable ????
          🙂

          • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 9:08 am

            Hehe! 😁

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 11:53 am

    NDX 100 in similar channel ( 1 hour chart) formed by series gaps down and price movement up to test open gaps. Now price has moved slightly above top line of down-trend channel into resistance area at last gap down. Let’s see how price reacts here…

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 12:20 pm

    VIX gap filled. Support here spells trouble for the bulls…

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 12:35 pm

    Bulls need to retake SPX gap at 2879.02 to keep the bullish case alive…

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 12:48 pm

    Gaps proving resistance. Time for a bit ‘ good ole’ bankster leverage to push past…hehe! 🙂

  • Marie Slattery May 15, 2019, 12:49 pm

    Quickly got out of DWT with gap down this am..so I was careful 😉

  • Marie Slattery May 15, 2019, 12:51 pm

    Gonna save my duckets for next week..and let this week settle out

    • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 1:05 pm

      Gold ducats??!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 12:59 pm

    Thar’ she blows! 🙂

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 1:10 pm

    Dojis at the top of the ramp…

  • Verne Carty May 15, 2019, 1:40 pm

    2848.34 the bull’s line in the sand…they have to hold it…or else…! 🙂

  • Verne Carty May 16, 2019, 7:43 am

    My, they are predictable!
    A leveraged move to overcome near term resistance.
    They cannot hide when they unwind it and savvy traders will know exactly what to do! ☺

  • Vivek Sahay May 16, 2019, 9:27 am

    Finally got time to see the Chart show. Great work Peter T. Should have taken some time out yesterday to see it. I was itching to reset all my shorts – thanks for providing much needed patience.

    • Verne Carty May 16, 2019, 9:36 am

      Patience is a virtue!
      I was starting to get concerned about the failure to re-test the 2900 broken former support/resistance shelf. 🙂

    • Peter Temple May 16, 2019, 9:59 am

      Thanks for the kind words, Vivek.

  • Bill rider May 16, 2019, 10:22 am

    Tom,

    Did your chart got translated by few days are we getting the monday ramp today.

    • Tom C. May 16, 2019, 11:50 am

      just go to the very first chart I posted this week
      the mirrored chart
      and you will clearly see what’s happening

      • Bill rider May 16, 2019, 1:36 pm

        Thanks Tom.
        Going my the mirrored chart we can expect a severe downturn swing next monday/Tuesday.

  • Marie Slattery May 16, 2019, 10:42 am

    reading May 20 turning point ..seems to be a date I read over and over..M.A. has 22 as possible Turning point..

    • Verne Carty May 16, 2019, 10:59 am

      Nenner calling for an important cycle low next week.

      • Vivek Sahay May 16, 2019, 11:32 am

        Joe has also mentioned May 22 as am important date – but he is very bullish for
        June

  • Verne Carty May 16, 2019, 11:32 am

    Bingo!
    Right back up to support/resistance shelf!
    Sweet! 🙂

  • Marie Slattery May 16, 2019, 11:43 am

    I think this is just going to be a ramp up until it turns..I see dow 2600-26,400 area but could go for more..then turn..

  • Verne Carty May 16, 2019, 11:49 am

    Move below 2857.89 before the close says we’re done! 🙂
    They CANNOT hide when they unwind…He!he! 🙂

    • Verne Carty May 16, 2019, 1:17 pm

      Looks like one more wave up to actually tag the 2910-2920 region.
      They after all really would like to draw in a few more giddy bulls before…well, you know… 🙂

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic. Posting trade specifics does NOT serve an educational purpose, is stongly discouraged, and such comments may be removed.

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