World Cycles Institute

Extreme Greed

Greed is at Extreme Levels

Being a steadfast contrarian if absolutely critical if you’re involved in any capacity in the stock market.

The market swings from fear to greed and if you have a good handle on where we are in the pendulum swing (cycles again!), and commit to staying on the opposite side of the market from the herd, you’ll win.

Market Sentiment

Here’s the latest on market sentiment from CNN Money. This is free information you can link to and access when you’re expecting a major market turn. At the moment, the indicators are clearly in the greed end of the spectrum. As a result, we’re expecting an imminent downturn. It’s going to be a big one; you can tell that by the size of the rally we’re at the top of. I’m expecting more an a snapback of equal size, as I’ve advocated in previous blog posts.

The put/call ratio is heavily weighted to the call side (almost 40% more calls than puts) – more positively skewed than at any time in the past two years , so the trading herd is expecting a lot more upside.

We’re at extremes; the market is expecting a turn, the herd is not. Time to get ready for a devastating drop in the US indices which should finally stoke the underlying fear I’ve been looking for. At the bottom of this fourth wave, the headlines will all be predicting the end of the stock market.

And then, in the usual market fashion, we’ll turn back up and complete the fifth and final wave. If you think mood is dark now, just wait.

Elliott Wave Basics

Here is a page dedicated to a relatively basic description of the Elliott Wave Principle. You’ll also find a link to the book by Bob Prechter and A. J. Frost.

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US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

We have a B wave that's now risen over 62% of the of the height of the previous set of waves down from the all-time high. The "greed factor" is at an extreme. It's time to look for a turn down in a continuation of the fourth wave.

The top of this corrective wave up from Dec. 26 appears to have traced out an ending diagonal. The final wave though is not quite complete, so we may see another small up/down pattern, before a turn down.

In any event, the next major move is to the downside. Ending diagonals are ending patterns. They warn of an imminent trend change. We seems to have them now in futures but not necessarily in cash.

The turn at the end of this pattern is dramatic. The first wave in the opposite direction targets the previous fourth wave. In other words, it retraces the entire ending diagonal and then some.

There is also the question of timing. The waves down from the all-time high to the Dec. 26 low took 12 weeks exactly. The B wave up from that low, that we're at the top of now (about a 70% retrace so far), will have taken 8 weeks as of February 20. This is an appropriate length of time for a retrace of this height to end.

Monday is a holiday in the US markets, of course, so the earliest we'll see a resolution is Tuesday. The last two turns have been on Wednesdays, so we'll see if that pattern continues.

There are other asset classes (currencies, oil, silver, and gold) that also suggest a turn is imminent.

Summary: My preference is for a dramatic drop in a C wave to a new low that should begin this week. The culmination of this drop should mark the bottom of large fourth wave in progress since January 29, 2018 - over a full year of Hell. It may be a dramatic drop that lasts multiple months, and will target the previous fourth wave area somewhere under 2100.

Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final new high in a fifth wave.

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{ 78 comments… add one }
  • Joe Longwill February 17, 2019, 1:28 pm

    Peter T
    Thanks again for your time and your free blog .
    I realize what I’m about to say is being ideal. Yet….
    could this be a 4 wave triangle in its very early stages ?
    Wave A the Dec 26 lows and wave B now in its later stages
    At a minimum . ( can be just wave a up of an a b c move that fails to make new highs )
    If so I’d say the .786-.886 retrace would be A high .
    I’ll finish by saying that your wave 4 wave x and the other wave x
    Will probably not be broken at this stage .
    This is just my own outside the box thinking and not a solid pattern as of yet .
    Just a variable I’m considering .
    Either way a deep drop is due . The 50% or 618 retrace would have to hold .
    The moves would also need to be fairly equal so even the .786 has to be considered
    As the last line of support . ( My opinion only )
    Waiting till mid March before making any forecasts
    The above is just a thought and not anything I’m making any claims about .
    Sunspots :
    So far the current sunspot cycle is still generally following the Dalton minimum .
    Based on the 90 day averages we are now at the Aug 1809 time frame .
    If this correlation continues then I’d expect a flat sunspot readings until late 2020 .
    Recently their has been a slight change in the correlation . I’m just noting a change
    Yet not enough time has past to call it at this point .
    Not saying I’m right or wrong on any of this ( stock market or sunspots )
    Just adding a nickel of my thoughts for maybe a future discussion several months
    From now .
    Your time and efforts are very much appreciated .
    Joe

    • Peter Temple February 17, 2019, 2:16 pm

      Could be a triangle, but very unlikely, because with everything moving in tandem, everything would have to trace out the same pattern, and that appears impossible in gold, silver, oil, currencies, etc.
      Also the wave up would be a C wave, the most complex wave of a triangle, and it definitely is not that.

      We have record cold here, with no end in sight. We’ve never had such a long, continuous cold pattern. It’s been over three weeks and there doesn’t appear to be any break for at least another 2 weeks (can’t see beyond that). We normally would have a two week cold snap (and maybe even a second one for two weeks) but five weeks in a row is breaking all kinds of records.

      • Red Dog February 17, 2019, 3:36 pm

        Pete – major drought over here on the eastern side of Oz. Very hot and no sign of a brake. Up in northern Qld there has been major flooding. Worst in many years. So bad there could be up to 1 million cattle dead and that is not a joke. Total disaster. Have mates who live up there. If we don’t see rain over the wheat belt very soon then things are going to get very ugly.
        Sydney and Melbourne property markets have tanked. In saying that they where well over valued. Still it’s having a major effect on the mindset of most people. Interesting times ahead.

  • DON ZIMMERMAN February 17, 2019, 4:36 pm

    I live on a farm in mid Missouri. I grow hay to bale and sell. Last summer it was dry and not much was produced, but by the grace of God it rained on my property. I was selling hay 3x the price of the year before. Now we are having record snowfall and cold. It seems to snow all the time and lose power occasionally. Gee, maybe Wheeler has something there….Duh

  • Ed February 17, 2019, 4:55 pm

    Andre’,

    Good to see you posting again! Could you explain the meaning or connotation of the “Gann Death Zone”? Sounds ominous! Does that mean you are seeing market peak along the lines of Peter’s 500 year peak?

    • André van staveren February 18, 2019, 1:09 am

      Gann’s death zone is 49-56 days after a major change in trend. Explained recently that 12/31/18 was 18 years after the 2000 torque high 12/31/1999.

      This makes 12/31/18 very significant. Add 49 days we get 2/18. Add 56 and we get 2/25.

      Yes; think this period this period should be watched closely for a significant change in trend. 2/25 will be tested as a high but this could bring capitulation,

      • Tom C. February 18, 2019, 11:15 am

        Hi Andre
        Energy chart confirms capitulation
        https://ibb.co/DD24QR7
        Note: the drop on the 27th may not fully played out
        because the data feed ended

  • Verne Carty February 18, 2019, 6:36 am

    A plethora of reasons to be bearish.
    Having said that, it would be mistake to underestimate the ability of central banks to drive price higher, even under severely overbought conditions. The sheer number of negated bearish reversal signs in the last few weeks has been nothing short of stunning. We are also seeing some broken down-trend lines and re-captured 200 day MAs. I continue to respect the power of the central banks to drive price in the near term, and suspect they will continue to buy. I am keeping an open mind until I see conclusive evidence that they are unwinding in the form of an impulsive breach of 2700 on an initial wave down.

  • Joe Longwill February 18, 2019, 10:44 am

    Don, red dog , Peter t
    Peter t
    Thanks for the input on why not a triangle .
    Also I enjoy everything weather related since this
    Cycle is outside our life times ( mine anyways )
    Since I do travel on the Pacific ocean from Oregon to
    Southern California I don’t mind sharing my observations
    Between the 4 if us I find it fascinating all the observations
    We are all seeing in different locations geographically .
    One of the guys I work with is a wheat farmer outside of bend
    Oregon . Last year his profit came because he ended up with
    A decent crop yield . Price was not so good from what I understood
    Him to say .
    In regards to global cooling , I had a conversation with a new guy working
    Here last night . He said global warming is indisputable.
    I didn’t want to argue with him but…. A lot of people have drank the koolaid
    On this subject . I have spent about 24 years following this and the science
    Behind it . Peter t has opened my eyes to more information .
    I hope we all continue to share our observations in the future and can collectively
    Understand what’s going on without the opinions of various bs media outlets .
    Most of all last year it was difficult to see the California coast as an example .
    This morning one guy says , there is snow in them hills, then says when is the last time
    You have seen that , then says , I’ve never seen that . He has been traveling this area
    Since the mid 1980’s .
    Something definately changed yet most people just can’t open there eyes or there mind .
    This trip south, Oregon to long beach California has been the slowest trip south bound
    I’ve seen in the past 3 years . Weather on our stern and fighting some current or something .
    Averaging 3 to 4 knots vs a typical 6. Very weird .
    Also the past 2 June periods we have seen winter weather like storms .
    A bit chilly off California but not bad .
    That’s it from me .
    March 5 mercury goes retrograde , March 15 using the 10 lag will matter to me .
    The typical calls March 15 a low . Yet March 15 as a high targets April 5 ish as a mini crash low .
    That odd cycle of the mid point being a high worked like clockwork from 2004 ish into 2006 ish .
    This past Dec 2018 we had a similar correlation ( not exact but close enough for me to take note )
    I don’t know why that cycle changes and I’ve waited about 13 years to see it come back but
    Dec 2018 was the first time I saw a correlation so I’m just noting it .
    The norm would be March 5 to March 15 high to low. The mini crash scenerio I’ve waited for 13 years to
    Show up again would be March 15 to April 5 ish .
    I went through 100 years of data on this yet I just browsed . My plan is to run it more in depth I just haven’t
    Taken the time to do so .
    That said I’ve followed it real time for a good 15 years and it’s just one of those odd weird cycles I pay attention to .
    That just another reason I’m waiting till mid March . High or low I’ll decide once I see what the market does .
    Another thing I have dug into yet I have to get back into ( these are all a ton of work )
    Planetary brightness , it most definately has an effect . I first discovered that using the mini crash cycle of mercury retrograde
    And the 10 day lag . It’s very weird to see when these cycle work
    The next line up : no opinion, I. Working on long wave cycles and still to much to get through .

  • Marie Slattery February 18, 2019, 8:51 pm

    just an fyi..March 14, 15 time frame has also been on M Armstrong radar as well so def a time period to watch..

  • Verne Carty February 19, 2019, 6:42 am

    Anyone trading Bitcoin?. A few months ago I considered a futures position but did not like carrying cost of holding a long term position. I opted for a close proxy in the form of RIOT. The deep in the money calls I bought six weeks ago have more than tripled and I plan to take delivery of shares at OpEx.

  • Marie Slattery February 19, 2019, 6:57 am

    thank you Tom for posting your charts..much appreciated

  • Marie Slattery February 19, 2019, 7:05 am

    not yet for bitcoin at least for me..In my charts I still show one more wave 5 down.to a range anywhere from 3000 to 2000 approx ending support..if confidence again builds up in it..i am still not sure if I will even if it drops to that..I have more confidence in making money in the market..

  • Marie Slattery February 19, 2019, 7:09 am

    Verne you however sound like more of a risk taker..and I am sure I will be hitting my self in the head if that one explodes again..

    • Verne Carty February 19, 2019, 7:55 am

      It was definitely a speculative trade just for fun.
      I did notice the MMs thought it prudent to withdraw those 1.00 strike calls.
      My guess is that they figured one hoarder was quite enough. lol!
      Whoever sold me my stash is going to have to go out and buy a ton of shares in a few weeks.
      What do ya think that is going to do to price? (Hint!) Hehe! 😁😁😁😁

      • Verne Carty February 19, 2019, 7:56 am

        ….Unless of course they smash price below a buck…! 😬

  • Joe Longwill February 19, 2019, 10:34 am

    PBA
    Has a .618 retrace at 37.04
    If it can push through that then a move towards
    42.25 then 45.35-47.41 would be about it .
    So far it has completely retraced the drop
    From the Dec 2017 high to the Dec 2018 low .
    Lots of 3’s in this stock so not expecting new all time highs .
    Long from 29 and change , up 24 plus % .
    Goal is sell into upper ranges later in the year .
    56 % return would be At 46.30 .
    Getting into the 42.25 – 47.41 range is all I see for this one .
    Not trading advice mind you it’s just a trade I’m in using cash .
    I like swing trades and don’t mind the wait

  • Joe Longwill February 19, 2019, 10:44 am

    Verne
    The chart shows riot bottomed around 1.50
    And you bought in the money calls ( the 1 dollar calls )
    I don’t know what month your expiry is but I find it hard
    To imagine those calls sold for less than a buck 50 at the time .
    So I’m assuming you have intrinsic value and premium at the moment
    But I’m not seeing a huge multiplier unless the actual stock runs further .
    Great trade though regardless .
    I think the crypto currencies just part of the ” all the same market ”
    Peter has mentioned many times .
    I hope your trade continues for you

    • Verne Carty February 19, 2019, 12:04 pm

      Joe:
      Intrinsic value on call option contracts is computed a bit differently than you indicated in your posts.
      The intrinsic value is actually the value ABOVE the strike price so for 1.00 strike call on an underlying instrument trading at 1.50, the intrinsic value of the call option would be 0.50 and if say I paid 0.55 I would have paid a PREMIUM (amount above instrinsic value) of 0.05 per contract. Options can be a bit confusing.

  • Joe Longwill February 19, 2019, 11:01 am

    Just a thought on riot and it’s just a thought
    Weekly chart since I’m just having fun .
    Low 1.29
    Wave 1 ? 1.817 for a total of .527 points
    5.618 * .527 = 2.96 plus the wave 2 low at 1.51
    Targets 4.47 .
    As noted just a thought .
    Not my trade mind you and that’s as far as I’m looking at it .
    I’m not even sure what RIOT is based on and have little
    To zero knowledge about it .
    I hope for you it hits 8 and you make a killing 🙂

    • Verne Carty February 19, 2019, 12:09 pm

      Premium value for my calls now only a penny so I exercised the call contracts and sold April 4.00 strike covered calls against my long shares for 1.30. If above 4.00 in April I will be called away for a average price of 5.30 per share. If we get a decent pull-back I will buy back the short calls for more upside.

  • Joe Longwill February 19, 2019, 11:58 am

    Just notes :
    Transports have resistance at 11033.68
    Getting through there a move towards
    The 11411.24 area would probably be about it .
    The .618 retrace sits at 10482.62 level
    I might have errors in this as I’m just making notes

  • Verne Carty February 19, 2019, 12:59 pm

    Impulsive move down by RIOT off today’s highs.
    Timing was exquisite.
    Sale of 4.00 strike calls allows me to sit on 5K RIOT share at less than cost basis.
    I don’t care if it goes back to 1.50.
    If it goes to my target of 10.00 I will thank the house!
    My kinda trade! 🙂

  • André van staveren February 19, 2019, 11:14 pm

    Disk covering is a mathematical constant. Now something funny; 1987 disk covering weeks on 1987 give 2/20.

    André

  • Joe Longwill February 19, 2019, 11:24 pm
  • Joe Longwill February 20, 2019, 1:33 am

    Verne
    I made an obvious error when thinking about option intrinsic value .
    I know better but wasn’t thinking it through .
    I get the trade and the covered calls .
    On another note , .55 cents times 5000 = 2750
    At 4 bucks that was 20,000 ?
    Not a bad gain
    Yet now you have 6500 against 2750 for 3750 gain ?
    Selling 1000 shares could have accomplished that much simpler
    Or selling 2500 shares and pocketing 10,000 to be used elseware
    Might have worked which also would free up capital .
    It appears to me your now kind of married to the stock .
    Just my thought .
    I’m going to focus on getting my own spec trades planned for the year
    The individual stock stuff is positioned , futures I use when I need to or
    Just feel the opurtunity needs to be taken advantage of .
    This year though I set up a seperate options account to test a few ideas out
    And it’s a bit different strategy .
    Thanks for the info . You kind of opened my eyes to a couple things .
    I’m going to stay quiet for about a month .

  • Joe Longwill February 20, 2019, 1:49 am

    I do get the 4 dollar price vs the 1 dollar strike
    Equals 3 and that’s 15000 yet if you excersized
    And now own 5000 shares then at 4 bucks it’s 20000
    Which is hedge by 6500 in premium .
    Anyways a bit confused why you didn’t just hold the options
    Yet I don’t know which month or take some money out of
    The trade.

  • Joe Longwill February 20, 2019, 2:25 am

    Last comment then I’m done
    Maybe I’m missing something but it goes back to where I began .
    You paid .55 cents for the right to buy at 1 dollar
    By excersizing you own 5000 shares at a cost basis of
    1.55 plus commission for a total cost of 7750
    You then sold April calls at 5000 * 1.30 which equals
    6500 minus comsions which comes out to a debit
    Of 1250 . Including commissions a bit more on the debit .
    On the other hand .55 at 5000 shares for 2750
    And then selling the 1 dollar call at 3 when the stock hit
    4 bucks say just selling 2500 shares would have given
    You 7500 in cash . Again not knowing the expiry month .
    Say its Feb , so you then excersize 2500 shares for 2500
    And you banked 5000 . You also could have sold calls
    At 1.3 * 2500 and brought in an additional 3250 for a total
    Of x . My head is spinning a bit as I try to do the math .
    Basically letting 5 1/2 times your money in a short period of time
    Then slip away kind of fits this week’s headline .
    Extreme Greed .
    I don’t care how much I love a stock , when I can take money out of it
    I do .
    Sorry for the rant Peter but I can’t help myself at times
    Rule number 1 states : Never let a profit turn into a loss
    No matter how much we think we know what comes next we truly never do .
    More times then not when we hedge we do so because we feel the run has
    Gone it’s course . Our hedge is because we are not able to let go of the trade and move on .
    The train will be at the station in 15 minute and another trade will present itself .
    holding onto a long term trade is perfectly ok .
    Speculating is a different animal . You must take your money back or the market will
    Take it from you .
    Really , sorry for the rant .
    I’m off for a month to get focused

    • Verne Carty February 20, 2019, 8:43 am

      Joe. I figured you did know that.
      I had only 50 contracts which entitled me to 100 shares per contract or 5K shares.
      Contracts were March 15 expiration.
      I of course paid 1.00 for each share per strike price, to exercise the call options in addition to what I paid for the option contracts.

      • Verne Carty February 20, 2019, 10:01 am

        When to bank profits is always an interesting question.
        The idea of the trade was to hold this position over time.
        Obviously that being the case, the more quickly I moved my cost basis toward zero the more I reduce my risk!
        Is not so much greed, as it is having a trading plan and sticking to it. I expect riot to approach 10.00 as a target, and you will agree the calculations if price hits ten would REALLY inspire greed! 😀

  • André van staveren February 20, 2019, 5:40 am

    Tom,

    Been thinking what you use for input in your charts. Now realize all energy comes from the sun. So my guess is you use solar force forecasts.

    No need to answer. You inspired me to do my own research into energie. Will try to get the solar force forecasts to create my own energy charts. Thanks for this inspiration. No need to duplicate you charts as long as you post here. I just like to understand.

    • Tom C. February 20, 2019, 7:30 pm

      photons, protons, neutrons, plasma, electromagnetic, gravitational, cosmic, X-rays, Solar flux, Coronal hole mass ejections, …….it’s an energy buffet Andre.

  • André van staveren February 20, 2019, 6:46 am

    The tidal field is bearish into 2/21. This will be low. Then the field is bullish into 2/28, and bearish again into 3/8. As I said before; this is just one force. During the cycle the market may deviate. But all changes from bullish to bearish vv are exact. 2/21 low, 2/28 high.

  • André van staveren February 20, 2019, 7:19 am

    Sensitive degree of the moon cycle.

    The sensitive degrees give a high 2/22 20:36 CET (14:36 in your time). Then we get a low 13:42 CET 2/21. So the ssd of the moon confirm the tidal field and Tom’s energy chart, Next a high 17:09 and a high 1:51 2/22. (sometimes we get two highs or lows in a row.) Then a low 15:56 2/22. This all consistent with Tom’s charts.

  • André van staveren February 20, 2019, 7:29 am

    Abou the sensitive degrees. All analysis is based on Jack Gillen’s analysis of past highs and lows. This is emperical. A predictive technique is to use the w24 on the degrees, the next w24 timer comes 5:21 cet 2/22. This suggests we get a high 2/22 early in trading.

  • André van staveren February 20, 2019, 8:04 am

    Little correction. Jack’s analysis is not based on past highs and lows, but on an astrological analysis of the natal charts of USA and NYSE.

  • Verne Carty February 20, 2019, 11:15 am

    I have to say I truly admire the persistence of the astro folk.
    I am simply watching the candles for clues as to what to expect and so far see no evidence of CB selling, much less a leveraged unwind….until they start selling, the direction will in all likelihood remain sideways or up….

  • Tom C. February 20, 2019, 11:15 am

    Heads up everyone
    tomorrow we’ll see a wild swing
    on the energy chart attached you will see today’s noon drop and the drop tomorrow
    but the big boy manipulators may actually invert it
    using some fake news story that a China deal is done
    which will make for a giant pop
    drop or pop it will be wild!
    https://ibb.co/44WmYnL

    • Verne Carty February 20, 2019, 11:54 am

      Lol! That is SO like the cabal!
      I have some stink bids open to try and snag some cheap puts on today’s move up, but no bites so far…

  • Verne Carty February 20, 2019, 11:58 am

    Bingo!
    Filled on DIA 260 stink bids!
    I figured the banksters would make a run at 26K, and I was right! 🤗

  • Verne Carty February 20, 2019, 2:24 pm

    I can’t figure out why the FED is blatantly lying about what is going on with their balance sheet. To put in their minutes that they are considering ending the unwind “later in the year” is a ludicrous statement as a simple glance at the already expanding balance sheet will reveal. Is the general public really THIS stupid???!!

    • Vivek Sahay February 20, 2019, 4:20 pm

      Technically, they have reduced their balance sheet by about 10% from peak. And they are saying thats about it…the market cannot handle anymore. So 400 bn was all the market could handle. Given the trend globally, I am fully expecting the Fed balance sheet to reach 10 trn in the next downturn.

  • Tom C. February 20, 2019, 6:53 pm

    latest energy charts update attached
    https://ibb.co/X7FQfLB

    • Tom C. February 20, 2019, 7:32 pm

      hit the play button

  • Qwertyqwer26 February 21, 2019, 12:54 am

    The banksters had to just stop raising rates to send the market soaring back to these level. Remaining ammo is halting QT which is planned for end 2019 but can be brought forward, cutting rates back to zero and reinstating QE. I wonder how many months or years this buys the stock market. I most certainly expect to see the bull market last into 2020 now. The market remains focussed on Trump and the FED. I reckon if every company in the Dow posted a loss the market would ignore it and hold up based on a dovish FED. The key is determining when faith is finally lost in the FED and that is something that will determine the end of the bull and then we can draw our EW to match the timing and trade it.

  • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 4:01 am

    The FED is LYING.
    It is true that the size of the balance sheet is down from its all time high, but that is NOT the question. The questiion is what is their CURRENT posture. They are implying that they are STILL reducing their balance sheet, but if you look at he numbers, the opposite is true. The V bottom off the recent lows is directly a result of a hasty return of Q.E. It is incredible how few people get it Of course the useless, corrupt media no longer reports or even investigates FACTS.
    Dezpite their efforts, price continues to wedge I am seeingl all kinds of wildly bullish counts and folk gushing about new A/D line ATHs. We shall see…

    • Vivek Sahay February 21, 2019, 5:01 am

      The recovery is definitely the Fed turning dovish (which they do after a 10-20% drop in the market). But they have not reversed their balance sheet reduction yet. Of course they have stated that they will and the market has fully factored that in – 10y treasury rate moved lower by 75 bps. An announcement right now of ending balance sheet reduction will not be new information for the market. What I find frustrating is the nature of B waves since the era of ultra easy money policy. These B waves seem to last forever – they just keep eating time and then are completely wiped out in an instant. The Fed has driven the fear of missing out mind set so firmly into the heads of investors that it now seems inevitable that the market will force almost everyone back in. I caught the first 62% retrace, but have been building a frustrating short position since. Now waiting for 78.6% retrace to add to shorts (2815 area). Not that far away.

  • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 5:22 am
  • Tom C. February 21, 2019, 6:59 am

    let’s see if the big boys
    give you your low today Andre
    waterfall drop into noon is a real possibility?
    https://ibb.co/42LPZp4

    • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 7:29 am

      I think the cabal is going to make their move in the futures markets. They have been setting intra-day bear traps repeatedly for the last few weeks and I suspect today will be no different. Everyone is waiting with bated breath for a decisive break of the lower wedge boundary but I suspect once we have the turn nobody is going to be waiting for that to happen. The initial wave down is going to slice through it decisively, as well as a few other support/resistance areas. Don’t fall for the bankster feint.
      You will clearly see when they are really un-winding, as opposed to all the phony B.S. declines they have been engineering.
      I am hoping for one more move up to get some additional cheap puts!

    • Qwertyqwer26 February 22, 2019, 9:31 am

      Looks like a waterfall with no gravity. Ie. up up up we go.

  • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 7:53 am

    I taking the money and running on my 260 strike puts on the 25% pop.
    I expect to reload on the next bankster intra-day bounce. They are so predictable it is not even funny!

  • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 9:58 am

    Very interesting YM tagged the 26K round number but ES did not breach 2800.00
    I think this divergence will be remedied prior to the final turn….

  • mojo February 21, 2019, 2:00 pm

    PTBs (powers that be) have VIX 15 in their sites. How it behaves (hold below or pops above with force) will be telling. No big revelation, just where PMs are focusing… or hedging. Looks like banksters have a head-lock on it.

    • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 2:09 pm

      There is a very good reason for that. It looks to me like the banksters are now targeting the stupid risk desks that are clearly NOT hedging their long positions because of the mis-representation of market risk due to suppressed vol. I have always wondered how the banksters were going to get out of their leveraged long positions. By keeping vol low they ensure the idiot hedge funds long stay in their risk/parity positions until the banksters unwind and force them to sell at market!
      Now I have seen everything in they way terminal stupidity!!

      • Bart van den Broek February 21, 2019, 2:35 pm

        I find vix options particularly mesmerizing. The option prices i want do not have bid/ask prices, until the vix moves, but then i dont want that price level anymore. (And the spread on those things…)

        • Verne Carty February 21, 2019, 4:17 pm

          You are never going to get reasonable spreads on VIX options ahead of an explosion higher unless you use a spread to get positioned. The ludicrous spread is intended to discourage traders from getting positioned.
          Here is a little secret I have learned over they years. They will fill you at much closer to the bid if you are patient. Sometimes ahead of a big trend change I will also use a walk limit order (say two pennies per second toward offer) on one or two options to find out exactly how much they are willing to take. This strategy works remarkably well! 🙂

      • mojo February 21, 2019, 3:35 pm

        Yeh, I think implied VOL has to move to bigger discounts with even smaller ranges, but earnings expectations are SO backward-looking (and the shutdown masking normal flow of info). It makes me think surprises will be earnings slowing even more than news flow on earnings, with media and PMs looking at levels instead of ROC (rate of change).

  • Vivek Sahay February 22, 2019, 9:30 am

    Starting to look more and more like I have been wrong in my expectation of a decline from around 62% retrace area. Strength above 2820 (78.6% retrace) would pretty much confirm that I am wrong about this and that the 4th wave already ended in December.

    • Verne Carty February 22, 2019, 9:34 am

      I agree. A CLOSE above 2820 would suggest to me that bearish counts were incorrect.

    • Qwertyqwer26 February 22, 2019, 9:39 am

      If the FED and PPT are capable of repeatedly destroying bearish wave counts via a mega stock ramp how is it possible to get a bear market these days….I know we are waiting for central credibility to collapse but the market is 95% full or sheep who live by CB worship.

      • Verne Carty February 22, 2019, 10:03 am

        It really is incredible. I am not sure how the EW analysts do not get discouraged.
        It does look like a fifth and final wave up…

        • Peter Temple February 22, 2019, 10:33 am

          “A spoonful of patience helps the market go down, the market go down …” – Julie Andrews
          or something like that 🙂

  • Tom C. February 22, 2019, 10:47 am

    Today’s energy chart FEB. 22
    https://ibb.co/2d5ktPs

    • peter ho February 22, 2019, 1:33 pm

      Thanks Tom!

  • Verne Carty February 22, 2019, 11:29 am

    There is sheer genius in the way they are gaming bulls and bears alike…sheer genius! The chatter around the “impending” trade deal is particularly amusing! 🙂

  • Verne Carty February 22, 2019, 11:47 am

    Anybody chasing this “ramp”? Hehe! 🙂

    • mojo February 22, 2019, 12:00 pm

      I have increased my “hedge” (with some pain lately), but holding for now with intent to reduce overbot positions to move toward net short. Thankfully, long ways from that but still flattens P&L 🙂

      • Verne Carty February 22, 2019, 12:25 pm

        This is FUN! 🙂

        • mojo February 22, 2019, 12:35 pm

          YUR SICK!! 😉

          • Verne Carty February 22, 2019, 5:19 pm

            But aren’t I? 🙂

  • Tom C. February 22, 2019, 2:11 pm

    today’s results
    on the energy chart
    https://ibb.co/WngvJc6

  • André van staveren February 23, 2019, 2:59 am

    Mathematical constants are vibrational. Time constant is an example.

    18 (!) time constant YEARS on 10/11/2007 : 2/25. See Tom’s energy chart. 2/25 high. Remember; Gann’s deathzone 2/28-2/25,

    • André van staveren February 23, 2019, 3:00 am

      meant 2/18-2/25

  • André van staveren February 23, 2019, 3:04 am

    In addition; 2/24 will be a high (2 biblical dates on 1929). So Europe a high in early trading, a low intra day and the up for the wallstreet high. As said above; 2/25 extreme vibrational so every index want to set it’s own high,

  • Verne Carty February 23, 2019, 3:51 am

    What happened to KHC and STMP today is likely a preview of what is in store for equities in general. This is the kind of thing not amenable to predictive charting or regular T.A. Does anyone thing STMP is actually worth only half today, of what it was yesterday? The implications are obvious for any thinking person. Every now and then the curtain gets pulled back and we get a glimpse of a reality we always suspected was concealed by a massive web of fraud, criminality, and deceit. It is stunning, listening to all the idiotic chatter, how few folk really get what is going on.
    We have by and large, become a nation of economic fools….and we WILL pay a heavy price for our own stupidity.
    A word to the wise….

  • Peter Temple February 23, 2019, 7:06 pm

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic. Posting trade specifics does NOT serve an educational purpose, is stongly discouraged, and such comments may be removed.

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