World Cycles Institute

The Ducks Are Lined Up

Trigger Time

Yes, it’s more than time to be looking down from here. We’re at extremes in all the usual indicators that I look at. In fact, some of them are so extreme, it’s amazing that this market has been “levitating” as long as it has.

But it has one unusual factor that’s the cause of this mind-bending correction: the all-the-same-market phenomenon. That’s the fact that all asset classes (and even international exchanges) are moving in parallel. That means they all have to “line up” at the appropriate level (most of them making testing previous highs and lows) so that they can all turn together.

It takes more time than usual and has been a tedious process in this particular instance. But, for the most part, we’re done.

This week, as has been the case for the past few weeks, it’s the US dollar that’s the asset to watch. At the moment, it’s retraced almost 62% of the previous wave up. Once this index reaches that low (at 96) and turns up, everything else should turn with it (USD currencies, all US equities’ indices, oil, and most likely silver and gold).

The “indicator” ducks that are all lined up are:

  • market sentiment
  • volume
  • the EW count generally
  • the ending diagonals in multiple assets (and asset classes)
  • the time vs. percentage of retrace of this corrective wave up

Even though I’ve talked about all of these in previous posts (as we’ve waiting for this monster), here’s a brief summary.

Market Sentiment is at bullish extremes. You can get a bit more information at to the extreme levels by visiting this site.

Volume in emini futures is ridiculously low and it seems to market could collapse through lack of interest.

The EW count is an ABC corrective wave, with the C wave having a full extended five waves in its count. Five waves requires a retrace – it represents a full count.

There are ending diagonals in WIT Oil, emini futures, the SP500, and USDCAD. Ending diagonals are ending patterns that forecast a dramatic turn and imminent trend change.

In terms of time, the  corrective rally has now retraced 75% of the previous 12 week drop to the Dec. 25 low. A 75% time expectation of the wave down would suggest about 9 weeks for the rally duration. Nine weeks exactly takes us to Wednesday, Feb. 27. I have my doubts, looking at the wave counts of all the asset classes, that we’ll be able to stay aloft until then.

Elliott Wave Basics

Here is a page dedicated to a relatively basic description of the Elliott Wave Principle. You’ll also find a link to the book by Bob Prechter and A. J. Frost.

____________________________

Registration for Commenting

Want to comment? You need to be logged in to comment. You can register here.

If you register, it protects your information. It also allows you to comment without filling in your information each time. Once you’re registered, simply go to the home page and click on the login link top right in order to log yourself in. Usually, you’ll be logged in for several days before needing to be logged in again.

______________________________

Problem receiving blog comment emails? Try whitelisting the address. More info.

______________________________

Tops in your field DZ 2

Tops in your field …

You are tops in your field.  Tried to follow Elliot Wave international for years.  They were always behind the market.  After discovering you, I perceive that you are an expert in reading the waves, which puts you way ahead of the rest of your peers. And you can read the Waves like you are reading tomorrow’s financial section.  I pray you stay healthy.  —DZ

Couldn’t be happier … KK 2

Couldn’t be happier …

The analysis and insight you provide is simply amazing!  I’ve been trading the futures and equity markets for well over thirty years and usually average around 5% monthly.  Since joining your Traders Gold Service two months ago, that number has better than doubled.  I couldn’t be happier.—KK

Get an upper hand … JC 2

Get an upper hand in trading …

Seeing all the different currency pairs and the wave structures and hearing you explain why this has to do that on a nightly bases gives one a upper hand when trading. Elliott Wave applies to all stock and indices and can be applied to any candlestick chart.

If someone ask what you want for Christmas – Tell them a membership to Peter’s “Traders Gold!”—JC

Have not had a losing week RW 2

Have not had a losing week …

I have been with Peter almost a year. The only thing that matters is have I made money with his service. I think I have finally turned the corner using Peter’s EW. I have not had a losing week in the last 5 months. Thanks Peter, for your amazing amount of hard work. —RW

A true expert in Elliott Wave FL 2

A true expert in Elliott Wave …

You are a true expert in EW analysis. What you provide is not available anywhere and is priceless. Subscription on your services is the best thing I have ever done. Many thanks for your effort to make me a better investor. I now have more trust in my investment decisions. I hope you will continue the excellent work! —FL

the real deal SM 2

The real deal …

‘Educational, insightful and thorough market analysis for all levels of traders. It’s Elliott Wave at its best….Peter Temple is the real deal’ —SM

Rise above the rest … SM 2

Rise above the rest …

I have only ever met a few people who, in their chosen fields (astrology, medicine, music, martial arts, technical analysis), rise above all the rest and you are one of them…you have ‘the gift’…and that’s why I’m a Trader’s Gold member. —SM

The best of them JL 2

The best of them …

Last couple of years, I subscribed to several ‘market traders’. You are by far the best of them and the personal contact is awesome. Daily and daily updates are very well written! Besides your expertise in EW, I also like your cycles analysis. Best investment I ever made! —JL

US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

We have a B wave that's now risen to about the 76% level of the of the height of the previous set of waves down from the all-time high. The "greed factor" is at an extreme. It's time to look for a turn down in a continuation of the fourth wave.

For the past two weeks. we'll been moving sideways to slightly up, and we finish up final ending patterns. The wait has been more than a little frustrating. However, the key to being successful in markets is the waiting.

The top of this corrective wave up from Dec. 26 appears to have traced out an ending diagonal. The SP500 also has a very small diagonal, an ending expanding diagonal, right at the top.

In any event, the next major move is to the downside. Ending diagonals are ending patterns. They warn of an imminent trend change.

The turn at the end of this pattern is dramatic. The first wave in the opposite direction targets the previous fourth wave. In other words, it retraces the entire ending diagonal and then some.

There are other asset classes (currencies, oil, silver, and gold) that also suggest a turn is imminent.

Summary: My preference is for a dramatic drop in a C wave to a new low that should begin this week. The culmination of this drop should mark the bottom of large fourth wave in progress since January 29, 2018 - over a full year of Hell. It may be a dramatic drop that lasts multiple months, and will target the previous fourth wave area somewhere under 2100.

Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final new high in a fifth wave.

___________________________

Trader's Gold Subscribers get a comprehensive view of the market, including hourly (and even smaller timeframes, when appropriate) on a daily basis. They also receive updates through the comments area. I provide only the daily timeframe for the free blog, as a "snapshot" of where the market currently trades and the next move on a weekly basis.

______________________________________

Sign up for: The Chart Show

Next Date: Wednesday, March 6 at 5:00 pm EST (US market time)

chart-show

The Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis in real time for the US market, gold, silver, oil, major USD currency pairs, and more. You won't find a more accurate or comprehensive market prediction anywhere for this price.

Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.

For more information and to sign up, click here.

"I think you are the only Elliot Wave technician on the planet who knows what he's doing.”
m.d. (professional trader)

All registrants will receive the video playback of the webinar, so even if you miss it, you’ll be sent the full video replay within about an hour of its conclusion.

{ 117 comments… add one }
  • André van staveren March 2, 2019, 4:59 am

    Ndq tpv 3/3-3/4
    Vyatipaata conjunct the node 3/3-3/4.

    Nothing new, but confirms what I said above; early Monday high in Europe. Nifty gives a high 3/5. So a low 3/4 around 17:40 cet and then up into 3/5. 3/5 is a Jupiter/vega date. 3/4 is 0 degrees in the Sirius calendar.

  • Joe Longwill March 2, 2019, 2:45 pm

    Peter T
    Just some input which is mainly directed at time only.
    essentially we have a similar line up cycles wise as last year.
    This is COINCIDENTAL .
    There are many different cycles im watching which all
    give similar turn dates and different patterns .
    This represents what I call the WORST CASE .
    New lows are allowable I hate to admit even though I doubt it .
    The Jan 22 Lows appear to be a magnet .
    As much as im bullish for this year. Right now is an inflection point .
    Mid March matters . Mercury retrograde . March 5 – 25th
    Targets March 15 – April 5 – 6th .
    This being just 1 of several cycles yet it will begin to influence the market
    on a short term basis so its kind of critical now because it brings market volatility
    and confusion .
    So I took the heavy weights of the dow and focused on the daily chart
    Based on Fibonacci retracements using a 5 wave structure . ( can be debated I know )
    These Fibonacci turn dates match the planetary dates .
    March 19th is a 1.382 time retrace using trading days .
    April 10 is the 1.786 time retrace
    The 2.382 time retrace is May 15th yet my own work says may 26-June 3.
    So Long story short I must begin to take a bearish bias on the stock market
    despite my bullish bias. How far this market pulls back remains to be seen.
    Im just focused on the swing dates and thought id show it fib wise as well .
    The decline from Oct to Dec may rhyme .
    Indicators not thought through or examined at this time , short term indicators
    VS longer term indicators will be a must . This is about time only
    https://i.imgur.com/cyTVQ9P.jpg

    • rotrot March 2, 2019, 3:38 pm

      on February 28, 2019 a number of posters/readers at this public blog were emailed with the ‘date’…one of Joe’s timeframes is in the ballpark…take it to the bank!

  • Peter Temple March 3, 2019, 11:06 am

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave, natural cycles, and the Quantum Revolution (Great Awakening). I welcome questions or comments about any of these subjects. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, is unhelpful, or off-topic. Such comments may be removed.

Want to comment? You need to be logged in to comment. You can register here.

Leave a Comment

Previous Post: Next Post: