World Cycles Institute

The Ducks Are Lined Up

Trigger Time

Yes, it’s more than time to be looking down from here. We’re at extremes in all the usual indicators that I look at. In fact, some of them are so extreme, it’s amazing that this market has been “levitating” as long as it has.

But it has one unusual factor that’s the cause of this mind-bending correction: the all-the-same-market phenomenon. That’s the fact that all asset classes (and even international exchanges) are moving in parallel. That means they all have to “line up” at the appropriate level (most of them making testing previous highs and lows) so that they can all turn together.

It takes more time than usual and has been a tedious process in this particular instance. But, for the most part, we’re done.

This week, as has been the case for the past few weeks, it’s the US dollar that’s the asset to watch. At the moment, it’s retraced almost 62% of the previous wave up. Once this index reaches that low (at 96) and turns up, everything else should turn with it (USD currencies, all US equities’ indices, oil, and most likely silver and gold).

The “indicator” ducks that are all lined up are:

  • market sentiment
  • volume
  • the EW count generally
  • the ending diagonals in multiple assets (and asset classes)
  • the time vs. percentage of retrace of this corrective wave up

Even though I’ve talked about all of these in previous posts (as we’ve waiting for this monster), here’s a brief summary.

Market Sentiment is at bullish extremes. You can get a bit more information at to the extreme levels by visiting this site.

Volume in emini futures is ridiculously low and it seems to market could collapse through lack of interest.

The EW count is an ABC corrective wave, with the C wave having a full extended five waves in its count. Five waves requires a retrace – it represents a full count.

There are ending diagonals in WIT Oil, emini futures, the SP500, and USDCAD. Ending diagonals are ending patterns that forecast a dramatic turn and imminent trend change.

In terms of time, the  corrective rally has now retraced 75% of the previous 12 week drop to the Dec. 25 low. A 75% time expectation of the wave down would suggest about 9 weeks for the rally duration. Nine weeks exactly takes us to Wednesday, Feb. 27. I have my doubts, looking at the wave counts of all the asset classes, that we’ll be able to stay aloft until then.

Elliott Wave Basics

Here is a page dedicated to a relatively basic description of the Elliott Wave Principle. You’ll also find a link to the book by Bob Prechter and A. J. Frost.

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US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

We have a B wave that's now risen to about the 76% level of the of the height of the previous set of waves down from the all-time high. The "greed factor" is at an extreme. It's time to look for a turn down in a continuation of the fourth wave.

For the past two weeks. we'll been moving sideways to slightly up, and we finish up final ending patterns. The wait has been more than a little frustrating. However, the key to being successful in markets is the waiting.

The top of this corrective wave up from Dec. 26 appears to have traced out an ending diagonal. The SP500 also has a very small diagonal, an ending expanding diagonal, right at the top.

In any event, the next major move is to the downside. Ending diagonals are ending patterns. They warn of an imminent trend change.

The turn at the end of this pattern is dramatic. The first wave in the opposite direction targets the previous fourth wave. In other words, it retraces the entire ending diagonal and then some.

There are other asset classes (currencies, oil, silver, and gold) that also suggest a turn is imminent.

Summary: My preference is for a dramatic drop in a C wave to a new low that should begin this week. The culmination of this drop should mark the bottom of large fourth wave in progress since January 29, 2018 - over a full year of Hell. It may be a dramatic drop that lasts multiple months, and will target the previous fourth wave area somewhere under 2100.

Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final new high in a fifth wave.

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{ 117 comments… add one }
  • Jeff Trimble February 24, 2019, 7:09 am

    Thank you Peter T for the insight. It seems we are at the top of the roller coaster’s highest hill, just tipping over that highest edge. You know its coming and the anticipation is killing you. “Here we go”!

    Thanks again!

  • Tom C. February 24, 2019, 9:57 am

    Quack quack
    here’s the updated energy charts for this week
    Andre your 28th GANN Deathzone is a com’n!
    https://ibb.co/yqKNQXn

    • Qwertyqwer26 February 24, 2019, 4:14 pm

      Well trump has delayed the 1st March China tariffs so the panic buyers maybe out in full force. US futures already exploding higher. Permission has been granted for a rip your face off rally. I had taken a pioneer Dow short late Friday but have closed it for -55 to see how this resolves. Economic data continues to weaken in Europe. A rally like this from December with no decent pullback simply cannot be a 5 waver. How far with this 3 waver extend. Interesting times.

      • Matt Per February 24, 2019, 4:33 pm

        It looks to me like the Dec 26th low was the bottom. ES up another 10 points. Now beyond 76% retrace so this baby is going to a fresh new high IMHO. All indicators pointing to new all-time highs. The S&P equal weight is above the nov and dec highs too!

        • Qwertyqwer26 February 24, 2019, 4:37 pm

          And that is the makings of a bull trap.

          • Matt Per February 24, 2019, 5:52 pm

            Well I’ve been all in since 2400 so I will stay 100% long until a break below 2600 (which I don’t think will happen until the bear market in a few years).

      • Matt Per February 24, 2019, 4:35 pm

        Smart move on closing your short position BTW. We may have a little pullback, but trend is still up.

  • Charles Lloyd February 24, 2019, 7:17 pm

    I know imma in the minority..as one of the bulls on this blog..but Matt’s right. Bottom is in! Dec ended the bear within the bull market..clear abc 4th wave that ended after Christmas. Now bull market back in session..VERY impulsive waves up..in 5..so its goin to a new high..for sure!

    China..US talks going well and issues that took markets down in 2018 are resolved. Breadth looks good..earnings numbers great..more than 70% beating expectations and raising guidance..economy chugging along..2019..most bullish start to a year in decades..all bodes well for new highs VERY soon.

    We should hit new ALL TIME highs for US markets within..next 2 to 3 months. I love SIR PETERS work but i think his count is off. This is the 5th wave!

    • Qwertyqwer26 February 25, 2019, 9:03 am

      This is very clearly not 5 waves up. Zero EW rules have been obeyed if this is a 5 up.

  • Ed February 24, 2019, 9:46 pm

    Peter T and Andre’ are about to look prudent and prescient…

  • Marie Slattery February 25, 2019, 8:26 am

    I am neither a bear nor bull..just a buyer..:) but do believe Peter has it right the timing has been crazily extended….this definitely could be an inside trading year range bound ..then explode. to fifth..this bull market has not proven itself yet..but has been a nice ride..

  • Tom C. February 25, 2019, 8:36 am

    Morning Folks
    Markets are not up because of some fake China deal that never happened.
    Markets are up because of the energy streams hitting the planet. The chart I posted on Sunday shows the morning spike up at the open and the sell-off coming this afternoon with a major dip around 3:00pm. What will the news story be then?

    • Qwertyqwer26 February 25, 2019, 9:02 am

      I do like the energy streams for sure. Markets top on good news so once the China deal is done. BANGGGG! The drop will commence leaving the bulls trapped.

  • Qwertyqwer26 February 25, 2019, 9:04 am

    Pioneer short at 26230 Dow stop at 26330

  • Vivek Sahay February 25, 2019, 9:28 am

    Tom C – thanks for introducing a completely new concept. First astro and now energy streams. Two completely new things for me. I thought 78.6% retrace is important (around 2820 level). The only instance in my data set where a 20% decline retraced 78.6% and went down to the lows again was in 1969. In the other 2 instances (1966-1967 and 1998-1999), SPX went on to gain 50% from the lows (in this case around 3500 zone). Of course, in both cases, the whole rally was wiped out with a 40-60% drop after that. Selling the 62% retrace after a 20% drop has been a good trade in all other instances. That makes the next 1% higher very important to me. The key point since 1960s has been that all declines have been corrective (as was the Sep – Dec 2018 decline). In case we actually start dropping hard from around here, 1800 would – 2000 would be a natural target (something like 1969-1970). So – potential range of 1800 to 3500 over the next 15 months. VIX implying a range of 2360 – 3315 over the same period.

  • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 9:51 am

    Best to wait for clear signs of a reversal. Banksters continue to buy so price will continue higher.
    There are clearly no sellers in this market. A meaningful decline requires not only a cessation of CB infusions, it will require a leverage unwind as well as risk/parity disruption, none of which is likely to occur with VIX at current levels.
    Their pockets are deeper, AND they can employ greater leverage so no point in trying to fight them…
    I used to really like Marty Armstrong.
    Now even he is talking Bull S_ _t about this run-up being due to foreign buyers. I wonder what currency these “buyers” are using. Is EVERYBODY compromised any more???!!!

  • Marie Slattery February 25, 2019, 9:52 am

    agreed appreciate your charts Tom .. I am still not quite sure if I know how to read it though on your chart of feb..18 it showed t with high energy on the 25th meaning with a trend line up..
    your latest chart shows it inverted..is it the same? meaning the it shows it more like a low.. but not sure if I am reading it correctly..

  • Marie Slattery February 25, 2019, 9:52 am

    which I know doesn’t make sense because the market went up…

    • Vivek Sahay February 25, 2019, 10:13 am

      Marie – if I was reading it right, he meant that market will open up and then drop into the close. The first part has happened. Now lets see if the market actually drops into the close. His charts were ridiculously accurate last week. I have no idea on how they work, but I am willing to look for any edge any which way !

  • Liz H February 25, 2019, 10:40 am

    I prefer to wait for AAPL to fill its early December gaps before taking on a bearish stance on the market.

  • rotrot February 25, 2019, 11:11 am
    • rotrot February 27, 2019, 5:33 am

      PD-1 (SPX accelerations…terminations…changes-in-trend…think POWER)
      PD-2 (SPX highs and lows…the following trading day likely closes with a change in polarity)

      interestingly, December 24, 2018 was both a PD-1 & PD-2 pivot date…obviously significant! there will be four more dual PD-1 & PD-2 pivot dates during calendar year 2019…

  • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 11:20 am

    Yet another ED?
    We should know by the cliose…

    • mojo February 25, 2019, 12:22 pm

      …or a perty evening star

      • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 1:29 pm

        Yep.
        Hard to tell if those gravestone dojis represent a turn, or just another tease! 🙂

        • mojo February 25, 2019, 1:41 pm

          Majority of bankers expect recession in 2020 :O

  • Marie Slattery February 25, 2019, 1:45 pm

    26052.90 is wave 1 up so goes below that this wave is done…but still looks like a possible wave 4 with one more up..

    • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 1:49 pm

      I agree Marie.
      The first leg down does NOT look to me like a leveraged unwind so far…

  • mojo February 25, 2019, 1:47 pm

    Keith McCullough
    ‏Verified account @KeithMcCullough
    7h7 hours ago

    Keith McCullough Retweeted Jax

    US Growth peaked in Q3 of 2018 and #slowed in Q4 – you’ll get that GDP #slowing report on Thursday

    • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 1:50 pm

      True. But unfortunately. price action has been divorced from economic realities for quite some time, has it not?

      • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 1:54 pm

        No break of VIX falling wedge boundary yet. I suspect one more low there and then off to the races….

        • Liz H February 25, 2019, 2:10 pm

          I agree. If you look at uvxy, it just bounced off the wedge’s lower downtrend line akin to 1/18 & 2/5 bounce.

          • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 2:14 pm

            Yep!

      • Charles Lloyd February 25, 2019, 5:49 pm

        Yes this market is heading to new highs by May IMO!!!

  • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 4:03 pm

    Just took a gander at SVXY. Gap open from this morning decisively filled.
    Leading the way perhaps?

  • Verne Carty February 25, 2019, 4:06 pm

    I am going to hazard a prediction.
    I would LOVE to see a new volatility low tomorrow that morphs into a nice fat bullish engulfing candle in all the vol instruments. Talk about an auspicious sign!

    • Charles Lloyd February 25, 2019, 4:35 pm

      I’m with you Mr Verne..bullish as all giddy up. Clearly a 5 waver impulsive move up off dec lows. Target is 3500 on S&P now. Buying EVERY dippity dip dip dip and shorting the bejubies out of volatility. Bull is back in session!

      • mojo February 26, 2019, 4:23 am

        HaHa! Funny exchange… You say POTATO, I say POTAUTO

  • Verne Carty February 26, 2019, 6:12 am

    Lost in translation? 😉

  • Charles Lloyd February 26, 2019, 7:25 am

    Remember this comment..when China & US reach agreement this week..S&P goes up 5 to 10%. New highs could come by next week. Market Prophet Charlie.. harday har ha!

    • Verne Carty February 26, 2019, 7:35 am

      When the cabal is buying, ANYTHING is possible. Most traders vastly underestimate their influence. I do not….
      I suspect a deal is already priced in…

      • Charles Lloyd February 26, 2019, 7:54 am

        i think its gonna b a moon rocket up! Get ready for blast off folks!

        • Jeff Trimble February 26, 2019, 8:45 am

          Realistically that’s only another 890 points. With the move up this year already, that’s childs play for the CB.

          • Charles Lloyd February 26, 2019, 7:56 pm

            That was my intermediate term target. We should get to 4K eventually..before this current 5th wave is done.

  • Vivek Sahay February 26, 2019, 8:24 am

    Peter G – Does yesterday’s VIX move trigger some sort of a sell signal for the market (based on your 1.4 mult) ?

    Verne – anything you are looking at to signal a potential sell signal here ? For me, 2820 is an important level and I would prefer we do not go too far above that.

    • Verne Carty February 26, 2019, 9:31 am

      A close above 2820 changes my immediate outlook from bearish to bullish.
      As you know, my own view is that price action in these market are primarily driven by CB buying. Bearish wave counts and reversal signals when they are buying will be negated. How may times does someone have to see this to get a clue?
      Today we had what I think was the fourth island reversal pattern this month and I completely ignored it for obvious reasons.
      My second view of the price action is that at these levels and with the extremely low volume that we have been seeing, these price ramps are very like being accomplished with freakish leverage. I cannot prove it, but I think it is not an unreasonable assumption. CB LEVERAGED buying is the thesis around which I think market price today can best be explained. At least it seems to be the only thing that makes any sense.
      I therefore try to look for signs of what the CB posture is. If I think they are buying I stand aside or trade the upside.
      It is extremely foolish to short this market apart from clear evidence that there is some kind of leveraged long unwind, with prior support/resistance level (overcome via leveraged buying) are clearly breached. As I said, I cannot prove any of this and this is merely my own viewpoint. I try to understand the significance of the price action I see, and not speculate about why it might not be what I expect. You cannot profitably trade expectations!
      As a trader, that approach has kept me out of a lot of trouble owing to wrong, or emotional assumptions.

      • Vivek Sahay February 26, 2019, 10:03 am

        I do get your point. However, what is interesting is that the market on a larger time frame ends up following historical pattern anyway – which to me means that vols should actually be higher than historical patterns (as both rallies and sell offs are more extreme). But given the amount of capital in the hands of vol control funds, vols go to extreme lows as well causing further buying by risk parity. All circular and a big reason for why US Indices have done so much better than rest of the world.

        • Verne Carty February 26, 2019, 12:17 pm

          Right on Vivek!

  • mojo February 26, 2019, 9:31 am

    It is entertaining to watch the market go from deep red to green as Liz Warren “poses” dumb questions to chairman Powell. Looking to short JNK (or other vehicle) with corporations most levered ever ($8T).

  • Verne Carty February 26, 2019, 9:49 am

    BTW, I do think Peter T. is correct in calling this move up corrective. What we simply cannot know is WHEN it will turn.
    FWIW, I am arguing, based on my own understanding of how price is being driven, that we will definitely know HOW, it will turn.
    I hope I did not make the matter perfectly cloudy and that that explanation helps a little. 🙂

    • mojo February 26, 2019, 10:01 am

      I exist with my head in the clouds 😉 Gotcha with the how and when. I am watching the rate of change of multiple factors; I think it will be a tell, but less emphasis on predicting. Trying to get bigger look than just the moving monkeys, as Hedgeye says.

  • Liz H February 26, 2019, 10:14 am

    Potential fractal based on trading days:
    9/29/15 low to 12/2/2015 high = 46 TDs
    12/26/18 low + 45 TDs = 3/4/2019

  • Tom C. February 26, 2019, 10:51 am

    For all those who are interested
    When it comes to energy charts some of you might think I’m involved in some weird new method of predicting market movement but it’s not weird or new. The Federal Reserve knows all about energy streams and the affects they have on the markets because they wrote a paper on it. See link attached to PDF document
    https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/publications/wp/2003/05.aspx

  • Peter G February 26, 2019, 11:31 am

    Yes, Vivek, based on using a 1.4% standard deviation for the lower Bollinger Band, a sell signal was given yesterday. Do be aware, however, that after 2 virtually perfect signals from the 1.4 lower band on 11-9-18 and 12-4-18, there were premature sell signals given on 1-16 and 2-7.
    On another note, Dana Lyons (his blog is highly recommended by me) showed a chart a few days ago with SPX on a log chart. Draw a trendline from the March 2009 bottom through the February 2016 bottom. It was convincingly broken in the last quarter of 2018 and this week SPX rallied right back to kiss the line from below. If there was real significance to the trendline break last year, and I think there was, then this kiss of the line from below could be quite bearish unless SPX can climb convincingly back above. Be sure to use a log chart, however…This week the trendline is at exactly 2806.38. We gapped above it by a tiny amount yesterday for a small “throwover” and stayed above it for around 3 hours. That level should now become of paramount importance if there is to be an important top in this time zone…

    • Verne Carty February 26, 2019, 12:20 pm

      Yes indeed, Mr Peter G.
      That log-scale trend-line is a very big deal!
      Very few analysts have cited that critical event!
      I wonder why?

      • mojo February 26, 2019, 2:05 pm

        I agree, rightsideofthechart.com has that in his sights, others on this blog reference Randy’s work.

  • Marie Slattery February 26, 2019, 12:34 pm

    Tom, thank you for the link..super interesting read..

  • Charles Lloyd February 26, 2019, 8:06 pm

    Spx to infinity & beyond..
    I have 3rd wave @ 2940..
    bottom of 4th wave @ 2346..
    How high..will this 5th wave go?

    Considering the 1st wave up is already 467 points? Wait until the 3rd of the 5th and the final 5th of the 5th blowoff Top.

    This 5th wave will blow your mind!

    • Verne Carty February 27, 2019, 5:18 am

      I suspect your trading account is going to be a lot smaller unless your stops are tight! 😋

      • Charles Lloyd February 27, 2019, 7:49 am

        I suspect S&P will have a 200 point retrace in the 2nd wave of the 5th so I’m prepared. I think wave 1 up is near complete..pending news of china & us deal. Then we may go up another 3-5% near term.

      • Vivek Sahay February 27, 2019, 7:59 am

        Charles does have a tendency to be very bullish at the top. Still remember him being ultra bullish from 2800 to 2940 and then disappearing ! The time to buy was at 2350 (as Joe did !). Right now is the most dangerous level in my set up. There is some probability that wave 4 ended in Dec and in that case, expected gain from the low is 40-50% over 18 months in wave 5. There is also the possibility that we turn lower from 2820 zone and that would target a decline anywhere from 1800 to 2300. I really don’t have a way of choosing between those two outcomes right now. Turning lower from 62% retrace is a lot more common – thats why I flipped from long to short around 2720 area. I have added to that around 2800. I will cut it all out in case we decisively break above 2820 on a closing basis. Even if this is wave 5, you do get a 5% pullback before leaving the old high behind for good. That would be the time to buy.

        • Verne Carty February 27, 2019, 8:30 am

          Ya think? 😋
          But seriously, we do need to bust a few levels to get me all in.
          First 2770.
          Then, a CLEAN SLICE through 2700.
          The slightest hesitation there and I run like a WUS! 😁

        • Charles Lloyd February 27, 2019, 12:17 pm

          Hardy har ha. I was the one calling for new highs above 2900 and every1 laughed at me. Then i was bearish on break below 2800, dont b a cotton headed ninny muggin. Imma da market prophet!

        • Qwertyqwer26 March 1, 2019, 2:50 am

          Charles lloyd is basically like graffiti on this website. Hard to get rid of and absolutely pointless chat. I wish Peter T just banned him as it ruins good conversation here

  • Bart van den Broek February 27, 2019, 4:31 am

    Is anyone else missing data on ES,NQ,GC,CL futures from 8 pm lastnight?

    • Bart van den Broek February 27, 2019, 4:40 am

      missing data at 8pm EST last night for couple of hours

    • Peter Temple February 27, 2019, 6:33 am

      Yeah, there was an outage on the exchange for a couple of hours last night.

  • Marie Slattery February 27, 2019, 8:57 am

    Possible Quasimodo pattern..from Jan 2018 DOW High..
    if we have another leg up and stalls below 26616.71 high prob we will be going down

  • Marie Slattery February 27, 2019, 9:03 am

    In meaning high from Jan 2018.26616.71.didn’t want to confuse anyone has to pass there

  • André van staveren February 27, 2019, 9:52 am

    2/28 Parivesha conjunct the node. 2/28 Gann change in trend. 2/28 mercury date. 2/28 Burton (vedic) change in trend.

    2/28 heavy date; should see some volatility tomorrow. 2/28 will be a high around 16:00-17:00 cet with a low in late trading. 3/1 node/apex date; also a high. 3/3 dark day (Carolan); will be a high. 3/3-3/4 change in trend.

    • p. February 28, 2019, 1:54 am

      Hi André, so nice to see you and Tom posting again! Do you see highs higher than 2/25 on upcoming days until CIT hits on 3/3-3/4? Or 2/25 was the high of the most recent cycle as it was the last day of Gann death zone you mentioned? TIA!

  • Verne Carty February 27, 2019, 12:14 pm

    Are the ducks quacking yet? Lol!
    Looks to me like we have one more ramp higher. unless we are looking at nested 1,2s….

  • Charles Lloyd February 27, 2019, 12:14 pm

    Bought the dip today..worked like a snake charmer! Tomorrow should be a huge up day folks. Imma using spxl to capture this bad boy! Dont miss out on da easy moola folks!

  • Milo Aussie February 27, 2019, 12:34 pm

    I don’t see why most EWers are saying this is the 5th wave up? Seems Peter is the only one I’ve seen saying this is still the 4th.

    I can somewhat see why they are confused:
    1. How the waves up from the bottom appear impulsive.
    2. All the Uber bullishness.
    3. The clear A/B/C down ending at 2,346 on the S&P

    However Peter is an amazing technician! Perfect dude for calling tops and bottoms. My money is on the bulls getting their rugs pulled out from underneath their stinky feet.

    • Charles Lloyd February 27, 2019, 12:39 pm

      Milo..i bodaciously agree with ur 3 points.. thats why we are in the 5th wave..this is the 1st wave of the 5th..we should get a healthy retrace once this 1st wave tops. The 2nd of the 5th should be at least a 200 point drop then up to new highs. I love SIR PETERS work but with all EW peeps..their count can be wrong. Imma highly convinced SIR PETERS count is off. IMHO S&P will make new highs BEFORE new lows. The bottom was 2346 and we wont see that level again for many years!!! Buy the dips!

      • Milo Aussie February 27, 2019, 12:44 pm

        No offense dude, my money’s on Peter’s analysis! However if SPX goes much higher I will have to reconsider your viewpoint.

    • Peter Temple February 27, 2019, 12:54 pm

      Thanks for the plug, Milo. In today’s chart show, I’m going to do a bull vs. bear count — how many signals I have for a bearish outcome vs. bullish. At the moment, my list is 15 bear, 2 bull (and those two on the bull side are mostly bull themselves … lol). I attempt always to stay completely objective, but I’m having a really hard time finding support for the bullish scenario anywhere.

      • Verne Carty February 27, 2019, 1:06 pm

        ROTFL! 😀

  • Charles Lloyd February 27, 2019, 1:40 pm

    Folks get with the program..shock & awe is coming! Dont get left behind..
    http://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/27/a-shock-and-awe-rally-scenario-that-could-take-the-sp-500-to-3000.html

  • Liz H February 27, 2019, 5:37 pm

    After careful consideration, I have decided not to wait for the ducks to turn into a black swan. Sold all long ETFs bought January.

    • Charles Lloyd February 27, 2019, 6:41 pm

      Wont go poor taking profits but you prob will miss a lot of upside on Fri after Trump announces great deal of china..

  • Marie Slattery February 28, 2019, 5:41 am

    I think good call Liz.safe then sorry always can go back in ..however Charles will never let anyone of us ever forget it if this goes thru the roof ;)..

    • Verne Carty February 28, 2019, 9:19 am

      Agreed. I am now holding a very sizeable long vol position, actually probably my biggest ever. I did not want to be overly concerned about timing so I opted for an instrument that is not time-sensitive instead of my usual options. From where I sit, the freakish short vol cohort STILL has not fully unwound, despite Volocaust 1 of last year January.
      I am not more convinced than ever that we are setting up for Volocaust 11, and it promises to be a doozy

      • Vivek Sahay February 28, 2019, 10:15 am

        Short vol trade has been reloaded !! I still don’t see breaks in the levels that will cause me to increase my size further. So just sitting at waiting. An initial break below 2765 is needed to get excited about something big happening. Till then, it may be wait and see. I have not had time to go through Peter T’s latest chart show. Maybe will get some time today evening if to see his potential counts.

        • Verne Carty February 28, 2019, 12:28 pm

          There is little question about WHERE, price is going. The great uncertainty is WHEN…
          Looking to me like we one more upside move so I am keeping a bit of powder dry to short it when it pops. I also have a funny feeling that since so many traders are watching the 2820-2850 area they just might pop price past it…

          • Charles Lloyd February 28, 2019, 7:28 pm

            I think we get to 2950 in short order before the 2nd wave of the 5th unfolds. Should be fireworks tomorrow with the great deal of china..imma short volatility, long options on spxl and leveraged up for a 3-5% move up over next week! Imma all in..Pop comes the weasel..

  • Charles Lloyd February 28, 2019, 7:37 pm

    3% up is 2867 on spx…
    and 5% is 2923..
    We may get a throw over to 2950!!!

    On 3x spxl, imma looking for a 9%..to..15% move over next week..

    cha ching cha ching..

    Imma ready for an overflowing trading account to load up for the 2nd of the 5th down. Should be a swift drop once the 1st of the 5th tops!!!

    • Qwertyqwer26 March 1, 2019, 6:12 am

      Could you stop speaking like a pirate and talk like a normal human with no mental disabilities assuming you are mentally sane? Please read the other comments on this site to tailor your language such than the rest of us can understand. I don’t know what hardy har har means.

      • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 8:32 am

        Jealous much?

        • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 8:36 am

          Hey Charles, did you take profits on the ramp this morning? Or are you still long?

          • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 9:00 am

            Imma still heavily long..but had big profits at open so sold a big batch of my spx and spxl calls..still in 3x etfs with tight stop..Made a little on vol puts but too much risk at these levels so small position now.

  • mojo March 1, 2019, 5:30 am

    As expensive as this market looks and feels, algos and quants keep firing new buys almost every day. In last week, TradeStops algos triggered buys in NASDAQ 100 on ADP, EBAY, STX, PAYX, INTU, AMGN, and AMAT. Who know when the machine takes a breather. I do notice that the flow of new buys is slowing, and they are usually slow getting in (and OUT).

    • Milo Aussie March 1, 2019, 6:11 am

      I think the smart money is running for the hills. Let the dumb money and the herd get burned (yet again). Peter has given us the road map but we must be patient!

      • Vivek Sahay March 1, 2019, 6:51 am

        There is a lot of money allocated to chasing momentum. People who were absent at 2350 are suddenly comfortable buying 2800. That’s the momentum game that has worked very well for 10 years now. For a lot of EW guys, the December decline looks like a completed A-B-C. Then there is the 1999-2000 example where equities went crazy after a 20% drop. Most of the examples I have seen historically would have favored a turn lower from 62% retrace. I have not yet had time to get to Peter’s chart show. Would love to see the different counts he is following.

  • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 6:57 am

    Ramp up right on schedule!
    I will be exiting short leg of bull put spreads early in the a.m. and holding long puts for the turn.
    This move was very clearly signaled by the price action of the last few days and in perfect keeping with Mr. Market’s ability to throw the herd off guard…
    Adding final long vol batch…here we go….! 😎

  • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 8:19 am

    That was one SWEET trade!
    Thank you Mr. Market!
    Exquisitely timed and executed. Strap in!

    • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 8:34 am

      Oh what a beautiful moooorrrrnin’…! 😀😀😀😀

    • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 8:36 am

      Yes Mr Verne..easy moola!

      Key clues..S&P..refuses to correct much off the 2814 high..investors ignoring bad news & embracing good news..clearly a new bull cycle from the 2346 low..dont know why all da bears cant see the clear A..B..C 4th wave that ended in Dec. Well let em lose money shorting this market. There will be a short coming up for the 2nd of the 5th..but no signs of this bull train stopping jus yet 😉

      • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 8:38 am

        Already seeing a nice pop in long puts so I don’t know about that my friend…!

        • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 9:03 am

          Trend trades with puts should do ok..if ur patient..i still think this 1st of the 5th goes a little higher before the 2nd sets in..guess better to be too early than too late..should be a good ride down in the retrace before fresh new highs..we might still take a stab @ 2940 before this rallys done but my guess is the 3rd of the 5th is where we see the new highs. Should easily hit 4K by end of year or early 2020.

    • Qwertyqwer26 March 1, 2019, 9:22 am

      Verne your timing is exceptional! Well done! You have a great ability to know when the dumb bulls are close to being fried. Keep it up.

      • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 12:42 pm

        Jus buy the dip holmes!

  • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 10:06 am

    😋

  • Scott King March 1, 2019, 10:16 am

    Looking forward to Peter’s commentary this weekend. Is there an alternative count that should be considered? Interesting articles on zero hedge today, Q1 GDP could be very bad.

    • Peter Temple March 1, 2019, 10:28 am

      No, but the market is running out of patterns it can throw at us to keep this thing up. We’ve had a running triangle (as a fourth wave at the end of January), an ending diagonal as the fifth wave, and now a triangle at the top of the ED. It’s a smorgasbord of corrective patterns.

      Anyway, more on the weekend. The trade deal is apparently going to be signed on the 6th, which is Wednesday (the week ten anniversary of this rally).

      • André van staveren March 1, 2019, 12:20 pm

        Uranus enters aries 3/6; 7 year cycle, 3/5 late MERCURY retro.

  • Peter Temple March 1, 2019, 10:38 am
  • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 12:41 pm

    Bought the dip again today..worked like a snake charmer..bulls on parade!

  • Verne Carty March 1, 2019, 3:53 pm

    Sold the ramp again! hehe! 🙂

    • Charles Lloyd March 1, 2019, 4:59 pm

      Yo..ho.ho!
      Mr Verne..
      You arr much braver than me..not a bearish bone in me body right now. Next week should be a 3-5% upward ramp!

  • André van staveren March 2, 2019, 1:49 am

    3/3 is a dark day. Gann sc2 3 high. 4 is a vulcanic vibration, equation of time, and a ‘9’ day. Gann sc1 gives the high 3/4-5. Bitcoint gives a high 4, baltic dry gives a high 4. Merriman gives a crd 1-4 march,

    So I expect a high early in Europe, a low midday and a high late monday.

  • André van staveren March 2, 2019, 1:55 am

    Tom,

    Energy chart?

  • André van staveren March 2, 2019, 4:48 am

    We know Gann travelled to India for his research. This make Bombay (city where the exchange is situated) very vibrational. Lunar returns on Bombay 2008 high : 3/4.

    Shadow date Nikkei 2007 high 3/4. Nikkei 2009 low 3/24. Low?
    .

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic. Posting trade specifics does NOT serve an educational purpose, is stongly discouraged, and such comments may be removed.

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