The cycles of history point to so many similarities in climate, health, societal change, and religion, among other characteristics of our experience on this planet. One of them that’s striking is the appearance of prophets at two of these cycle highs.
A major cycle is the 172 year cycle that I’ve written about many times before. Dr. Raymond Wheeler identified the 170 year cycle in his work and in a simplified cycle clock, The Drought Clock. Stephen Puetz mathematically adjusted the cycle to 172 years in his ground-breaking book, The Unified Cycle Theory. While this cycle peak marks an economic high and subsequent crash, it’s also parallels the Uranus-Neptune conjunction of 171.4 years. The turns are supported by events throughout history within mathematical probabilities that make their reality indisputable.
In fact, for the last three conjunctions, we experienced a major market sell-off fourteen years after the conjunctive event.
Uranus Neptune Conjunctions
|1650||1663||the largest depression in England—1663, followed by Blubonic Plague (1664) and Fire of London (1665)|
|1821||1835||start of the largest depression in US history to that date (The panic of 1937 was the crash)|
|1993||2007||the Great Recession—central banks have managed to keep the market up through most of 2016|
Major cycles are harmonic (X3) and both Puetz and Wheeler identified the 515 year cycle (171.4 X 3) as the civilization cycle. Two of the theoretical peaks were the years 118 AD and 633 AD. Each of these dates marked the appearance of prophets and the beginning, or resurgence of religions (Jesus and Muhammed).
The chart below (click to enlarge) is from the work of Dr. Wheeler and shows the temperature peaks of both eras and the relative events.
The larger chart covers the years ~430 – 720 AD, which was a major warm temperature top (the solid black line on both charts shows the relative temperature). You’ll find a “big picture climate chart” spanning 3000 years on the blog post entititled “Global Cooling.”
The inset denotes the height of the Roman Empire (the chart cover the years ~100 BC – 135 AD). I’ve written about this before in a post about the correlation of climate to the demise of the Empire.
Jesus and the end of the Roman Empire
The SP (Stephen Puetz “theoretical cycle top”) for the Roman Empire was 118 AD (the 515 year civilization peak cycle), which began the demise of the Roman Empire over a period of several hundred years. Jesus Christ was alive from 4 BC through 30 AD, just as the temperature cooled. He appeared, as did Muhammed, just before the cycle peak. As I’ve written before, this forecast civil wars, a period of social revolution, and political turmoil.
Muhammed and the Peak of the First Byzantium Empire
A similar pattern exerted itself at the cycle top of the 600 AD period (approximately 500 years later). After 395 AD, the Roman Empire split it two, the eastern half survived and historians refer to it as the Byzantine Empire. Under Justinian (527-565) the empire regained some strength. You can see on the larger chart that the temperature rose at that time (after decades of colder, dryer climate). Justinian grew the empire to include North Africa, Italy, Sicily, Sardinia and parts of Spain.
However, after the Stephen Puetz theoretical peak (633 AD), climate turned colder and dryer and this marked the start of the gradual upheaval of the empire. Only a year later, Byzantium started to lose a large portion of its territory to the Arabs. The Byzantium Empire was later revived in the next 515 year cycle, which peaked in the year 1148.
Similar to the top of the Roman Empire, which coincided with the theoretical peak and the coming of Christ, Muhammed (570-632 AD) appeared just before the theoretical top of this 515 year cycle. He is widely regarded as the founder of Islam by non-Muslims. He is known as the “Holy Prophet” to Muslims, almost all of whom consider him to be the last prophet sent by God to mankind to restore Islam.
However, within ten years of his death in 632, which also marked the cycle peak, Ridda Wars, or the Wars of Apostasy ” broke out, and the Rashidun Caliphate was established. The peak led to a period of intrigue and assassinations of its leaders and civil wars.
The 515 year cycle tops always herald in a demise of the current civilization, and a major social and religious upheaval. It also led to major migrations in both cases. Prophets also arose to prominence and led to a greater reliance of religion and religious teachings.
We’re also reaching the peak of a civilization cycle. The 172 cycle (and top of the climate cycle) was in 2007 (which was 14 years after the Uranus/Neptune conjunction). The peak of the civilization cycle in is 2178 (another 172 years cycle from 2007). Are we expecting a prophet to appear on the horizon? The timing is right and we certainly need one, based on the state of the world.
Above is a chart of recent temperature patterns over the past twenty-five years or so (produced by Christopher Monckton). The temperature peak was in 1998 (predicted by Dr. Wheeler in his Drought Clock). Pay particular note to the drop in temperature in the year 2007. It aligned with the huge drop in what we now refer to as “The Great Recession.”
You’ll also find a large temperature drop in the year 1929, illustrated in my video, “Don’t Like the Climate? Wait a Cycle!” which shows how the DOW rises and fall with temperature.
I expect to see a very cold winter coming up this year as the US market finally tops and heads down in what we may end up calling “The Greater Depression.”
The short story is that we’ve passed the 172 peak in 2007. Central banks have managed to keep the stock market up through this year through their policies, which have been described as the biggest financial “experiment” in history, by none other than Lord Rothschild himself.
The Market this Weekend
There isn’t all that much new in the markets. I’ve been predicting the continuation of the fourth wave of the ending diagonal for several weeks now. I’m still looking for a new low.
Above is the daily chart of ES (emini SPX futures). On Friday, September 23, we completed the b wave of the 4th wave of the ending diagonal (ending diagonal labeling is in red). Friday, Sept. 23 was an Andy Pancholi turn date for the SP500. The EURUSD peaked the day before on another Pancholi turn date.
I expect a gradual drop to below the 2100 area before a turn up in the final wave of the pattern. Watch for a double top, though, before that happens.
Wave (red) 2 of the ending diagonal was a long time finding a bottom and the (red) 4th wave needs to create some timing symmetry with the second wave, so the extended time involved in reaching its target is to be expected.
Here’s why this final pattern has to be an ending diagonal (and why I predicted it months ago):
- the final wave of a sequence has to be in 5 waves, with one exception—an ending diagonal, which is part of a 3 wave pattern
- the wave up so far (from Feb. 11 to ~ April 20) is in three waves because:
- the small “second wave” (black B) did not retrace 62%, which is a requirement of a motive wave in 5, so for that reason, it must be considered a B wave
- the 5th wave of the black 5 wave sequence is in 3 waves, which a requirement of a final motive wave is that all the subwaves are also motive
- the black third wave does not have a full subset of five waves, which is required for it to be a motive wave
- for all the above reasons, the first sequence up from Feb. 11 is a zigzag.
Summary: This is the final fourth wave dip before the “blow-off” fifth wave and the top of the largest bubble in history. I expect a little more downside before we turn up again to head for a new all time high.
Introducing: The Chart Show
Thursday, September 29.
Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. You’ll also get Andy Pancholi turn dates for the balance of the current month. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.
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