World Cycles Institute

US Indices: Is the Cat Really Dead?

The Cat Comes Back?

The bounce I’ve been expecting the latter part of this past week hasn’t yet materialized, but it’s sitting in the wings, and we may see a resolution as early as Sunday or Monday.

We’ve now completed our first zigzag (a 5-3-5 pattern) down after completing the C wave of a predicted flat — a running flat, to be precise.

Now, anyone who knows the slightest about Elliott Wave would have to concede that the entire structure to the downside is corrective, as I’ve been saying since February of this year, when the first corrective wave came down from January 29. Of course, this is only one of many reasons I’ve cited that a top is NOT in … sigh.  It’s impossible by Elliott Wave standards that we’ve topped.

US Thanksgiving is traditionally a positive period for the US indices. This year proved to be somewhat of an exception. However, even though we experienced some weakness, this weekend we’re hovering around double bottoms in NYSE, SP500, ES, and IWM (Russell 3000). The Russell 2000 is showing signs of wanting to bounce, as are the Nasdaq-related indices. We really haven’t gone anywhere since Wednesday.

In the past couple of days, we experienced attempts at a bounce in the SP500 and ES, but they all failed. In fact, ES reached a slight new low, but the wave down over the past two days appears corrective. Now, that’s weird, from a EW perspective. I’ll be looking for a resolution almost right away — do we get my bounce, or will we see more weakness? We may have the answer as soon as Sunday or Monday.

I think the cat has at least one more life to go!

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Paying a Visit to the US Dollar Currency Index (UUP)

Above is the weekly chart of the UUP (US Dollar ETF). UUP is representative of the structure of DXY (the US index) and will provide an excellent predictor of the future of the US economy over the longer-term.

I spent a lot of time thinking about this currency over the weekend and thought it time to revisit it, based upon all the talk about alternatives to the 80 year old “reserve” currency. Certainly Russia, China, Iran, and Brazil are leading the charge to find another solution to the US “weaponizing” the US dollar for its own benefit (using the SWIFT system).

From a technical perspective, the long term wave structure (above) appears to be in a corrective pattern. You can see by the yellow numbers in brackets that there are five waves to the upside. However, these waves are not impulsive. (There’s a big difference between an impulsive 5-waver and a run-of-the mill 5-waver).

The run-of-the-mill version lives in zigzags, which are corrective, of course. The blue A wave label in the chart is where we are now, at the top of what appears to be the most impulsive-looking wave in the entire chart. It’s almost done, but may not be entirely complete to the upside.

In any case, if this wave is part of a zigzag, then I would expect a retrace of at least 38% of that wave and then another 5 waves to the upside. More than that, I cannot say.

What this is telling me is that we’re going to see some deflationary pressures from this index, but the chart speaks more to the relationship that will exist between the other USD related currencies (which is pretty much all of them). Some of them, like AUD and CAD appear to be in impulsive patterns and will get dramatically weaker against the US dollar in the intermediate term.

What’s interesting about the US Dollar is that, being in a corrective pattern (so is the Euro), the longer term prospects are not as certain. I don’t expect the Euro to be around forever, and very possibly nonexistent within the next five years. I expect more European countries to revert back to their original currencies, which will give them back control of their economies (something Greece should have done a few years ago).

The freezing of credit is going to be the bigger issue, and that’s REALLY deflationary! It will affect all the world’s currencies, as long as they remain within the current fiat currency structure. Failing banks, as a result of dropping real estate prices, will be the lead determinant of how deep a deflationary environment we enter. Digital money is just simply going to start disappearing as mortgages (and eventually countries) default.

Start thinking about where your cash is. Remember it’s a whole heck of a lot better if you can touch and feel it, rather than trust it digitally with a banker.

Deflation, as far as I’m concerned is a given. Where the US Dollar ultimately ends up will be a function of international politics (a move to using other currencies to purchase oil, for starters. Of course oil is going to tank — sorry for that pun! — and the petrodollar will have much less influence in future). Technically, the US Dollar will have more upside, but the chart is also telling me that won’t be forever.

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Elliott Wave Basics

There are two types of Elliott wave patterns:

  • Motive (or impulsive waves) which are “trend” waves.
  • Corrective waves, which are “counter trend” waves.

Motive waves contain five distinct waves that move the market forward in a trend. Counter trend waves are in 3 waves and simply correct the trend.

All these patterns move at what we call multiple degrees of trend (in other words, the market is fractal, meaning there are smaller series of waves that move in the same patterns within the larger patterns). The keys to analyzing Elliott waves is being able to recognize the patterns and the “degree” of trend (or countertrend) that you’re working within.

Impulsive (motive) waves move in very distinct and reliable patterns of five waves. Subwaves of motive waves measure out to specific lengths (fibonacci ratios) very accurately. Motive waves are the easiest waves to trade. You find them in a trending market.

Waves 1, 3, and 5 of a motive wave pattern each contain 5 impulsive subwaves. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend waves and move in 3 waves.

Countertrend waves move in 3 waves and always retrace to their start eventually. Counrtertrend (corrective waves) are typically in patterns — for example, a triangle, flat, or zigzag. Waves within those patterns can be difficult to predict, but the patterns themselves are very predictable.

Fibonacci ratios run all through the market. They determine the lengths of waves and provide entry and exit points. These measurements are really accurate in trending markets, but more difficult to identify in corrective markets (we’ve been in a corrective market in all the asset classes I cover since 2009).

To use Elliott wave analysis accurately, you must be able to recognize the difference between a trend wave (motive) and a countertrend wave (corrective). There’s very much more to proper Elliott wave analysis, but this gives you the basics.

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The Market This Week

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

The big picture is that we've trace out an expected running flat as the major portion of this fourth wave we're in.

It was followed by a three wave retrace and then a zigzag. There's likely another zigzag to follow on the downside after a bounce. I'm expecting a bounce to correct the first zigzag down. EW guidelines suggest that bounce will reach at least the 38% retrace level of the entire zigzag, which would be around the 2705 area.

There are options for a downside target. The key levels are shown on the chart screen.

In the meantime, we know we're going to a new low below the February low (wave A of the fourth wave) at about 2535.

Combination waves can have up to three patterns within them. This pattern we're in is the second one (after the running flat). One  zigzag if often followed by another. But, we could also see either a triangle or ending diagonal form (although, I see these are much lower probability).

Summary: Expect a bounce after a zigzag pattern, to most likely be followed on the downside by another zigzag. It may not be the final EW pattern of this fourth wave combination pattern.

Once this c wave (down) has bottomed, expect a final fifth wave to a new high. That fifth wave up to a new high will be the end of the 500 year bull market.

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{ 54 comments… add one }
  • Verne Carty November 25, 2018, 7:30 am

    Yep! I expect a low Monday morning, followed by a move up to tag broken neck-lines of H&S patterns. We should see a nice gap up in VIX to signal the start of C down.

  • Marie Slattery November 25, 2018, 7:35 am

    Thank you for the article it helps keep us all on track..

  • Bill rider November 25, 2018, 9:49 am

    Thanks Peter T.

    Your longer term prediction is always on spot. I hope we have a visit to 2710/2700 before heading back down.
    Question – Are you looking at QT dates, we have some liquidity release from 11/26- 11/29 and then liquidity tightening on 11/30. So are you thinking we reach 2700 by Wed/thursday and then move down rest of the month of december. How long to reach your final target.

    • luke brickman November 25, 2018, 10:58 am

      Where do you find the info on liquidity and dates? Would love a link to follow.

      Thanks

    • Peter Temple November 26, 2018, 4:13 pm

      Bill,
      Not looking at QT dates because I don’t know what they are … QT stands for Quicktime to me.

      • Bill rider November 26, 2018, 9:15 pm

        LOL… I see lot of people quote QT related info on twitter…one is with handle barton he post some interesting thoughts. But anyways will see if we stop at 2710 and then head back down as per plan.

        Thanks for the work.

      • Verne Carty November 28, 2018, 7:32 am

        Quantitative Tightening?

        • Bill rider November 28, 2018, 2:42 pm

          Yes, May Be QT can push this market down.

          Peter T,

          As your 2705/2710 target is exceeded how do you see this play out now.

          • Peter Temple November 28, 2018, 2:43 pm

            Be in the Chart Show and you’ll know.

  • Joe Longwill November 25, 2018, 6:12 pm

    Peter T
    excellent update .
    I am home through tonight and only had an hour to dig into the market.
    a few things im noticing if they have any bearings.
    the 10 trin not even close to oversold .
    10 day advance decline line though is a bit oversold with the 5 day
    turning up . adding it up though im not seeing anything exciting to call a bottom
    even close to in place.
    my timing though says otherwise .
    Nov 23rd is a mars Uranus subcycle low , Monday nov 26th is the mid point of mercury retrograde .
    together they point to a potential monster rally similar to the rally from late oct to nov 7th .
    the next cycle being dec 3-6th .
    The lesser weighted dow stocks ( 15 of them ) still have not broken below their oct lows . the heavier weighted dow stocks is what has been driving the index down.
    I have noticed for several years now in regards to the puetz window I see a turn begin starting 20 to 25 trade days before the solar eclipse ( generally a month prior ) and that move will tend to trend in a choppy manner into the solar eclipse .
    That move would be from Dec 3-6th into the jan 6 solar eclipse .
    the basics are a turn at the solar eclipse into the lunar eclipse and then a strong move .
    bottom line: a failure to rally by Tuesday at the absolute latest ( nov 27th ) would tell me something else is going on and that the dec 3 – 6th time period would be very important.

    the main swing periods going forward are : now Nov 26-27th then dec 3-6th
    jan 6th , jan 20th ( a biggy for me ) and the time surrounding the full moon around feb 19th 2019 when this puetz cycle ends .
    A monster rally now would fit a high dec 3-6th and would be the start of a new bearish cycle so to speak . it would also be a peak of importance ( or a LOW OF IMPORTANCE )
    For me I am getting a mixed picture with no true over sold readings using the basics . I do not have time to put in all the data I usually use to add to this research.
    Its to soon for me to become aggressively bullish which was my intensions .
    The numbers don’t add up even though the timing says otherwise .Just a word of caution .
    Im going to sit back and wait this out for the time being and ill be patient .
    Thank you for all your hard work
    I appreciate it !
    Joe

  • Joe Longwill November 25, 2018, 6:22 pm

    To whom ever
    Just to be clear
    I am long several stocks and im looking to add to long positions
    looking out for the next several months to a year .
    depending on Mondays opening I may add a few long positions
    yet I am not going to use any options or futures at this time .
    that does not imply that I don’t allow for a monster rally over the next few weeks
    its just that I don’t have the ability to trade aggressively in short time frames so for me I prefer a set of circumstances which I am not seeing presently and I don’t wish to ” fly blind ” with mixed signals .
    if this rally does take off as I would prefer then the spx and dow should go back up to and at least test the nov 7th highs ( so yeah I would like that trade )
    I don’t take trades with out setups so im sitting out .

  • Marie Slattery November 26, 2018, 3:17 pm

    Peter I think you may be getting your 2800 on the S&P..or a good pop close to it coming up..in the near term

  • Verne Carty November 26, 2018, 7:41 pm

    This market is starting to play havoc with the sanity of some folk it would seem. Some are declaring a primary degree fourth wave over on October 29. Wow!!!

  • Verne Carty November 26, 2018, 10:37 pm

    The expectation for the bounce is the 38% retrace of the ZZ, around 2705.
    I fully agree with that target from Peter as 2700 is an important pivot, so it is very reasonable to expect price to re-test it from beneath after breaking it to the downside.

  • Verne Carty November 27, 2018, 3:35 pm

    Green VIX print today confirming move up corrective.
    Wave up looks like an ED and if that is correct, we should see a sharp “C” down next. I think we get our “Santa Rally” after it’s done.
    See y’all at the Chart Show!

  • Joe Longwill November 27, 2018, 3:45 pm

    Today’s rally was an important confirmation for my timing models ( theories )
    The next swing date range of Dec 3-6th should be a high .
    A move similar to the late Oct early Nov rally should be expected .
    A test of the Nov 7 highs or even a break of those highs can happen .
    An entirely new cycle begins Dec 3-6 And ends Jan 20 as well as Feb 19 .
    A minor cycle ends Jan 16 .

    • Verne Carty November 27, 2018, 5:50 pm

      Joe I could be wrong but the pattern looks to me like a bearish rising wedge. I have seen quite a few analysts who agree with you and are expecting break-outs in SPX and Nasdaq. A close above 2700 and I will agree the Santa Rally arrived early this year and make me think the C wave down ended up being a lot shorter than some of us expected.

      • Willem November 28, 2018, 7:33 am

        Hi Verne,
        Today (28/11) we must go down into the 6/12. It is a short period, but the decline looks sharp. We make then a rally into 19-20/12. At the end of 19th and the beginning of the 20th we make a the 500 year cycle High. Then a decline starts into 18/01 (a Month). Bradleys pattern seems to do it well as confirmation of Peters prediction and my own indicators.
        So I think the Santa rally is on its way. ho ho …. 🙂
        (I found in different location on the internet the data of My most reliable indicator. Only as confirmation http://www.prognoseus500.nl/)

        • Verne Carty November 28, 2018, 10:57 am

          Well Willem, it sure does look like the Santa Rally arrived early courtesy of the banksters.
          A move like this should have been accompanied by massive volume, where is it?
          If anyone ever doubted the criminal cartel driving global equities today provided a classic example.
          They were determinded to shake out all leveraged short positions in this market.
          This is an example of why I never trade using leverage. They set an exquisite bear trap with that phony RUT fill of this morning’s gap up open. You just gotta admire the banksters for their inventiveness! 😊

      • Verne Carty November 28, 2018, 10:59 am

        They were right.
        That is one helluva breakout, albeit on pathetic volume….!

  • Marie Slattery November 27, 2018, 4:35 pm

    Joe..can you recommend a good site to understand astro cycles better pertaining to stocks?

  • Joe Longwill November 27, 2018, 9:13 pm

    Marie
    I can’t point you to any astro sites
    I can make a few sugesstions though .
    Do a Google search Raymond merriman
    He writes a free weekly blog , he is also about
    To put out his book which he writes each year
    For the next entire years forecasts . I have bought
    His 1 year book in the past yet have not lately .
    I’m going to buy his book this year though .
    I’ll also say I’m going to order the printed version versus
    The ebook version . I like refrence material .
    Reading his weekly stuff is educational .
    I have purchased various books over the years and
    have tied things together . I don’t know of any sites that
    Do this . I have met Raymond merriman only once and I have
    Emailed with him a few times. I trust his work . That doesn’t mean
    It’s always going to work yet it does mean I would recommend
    Him as a starting point .
    $55 bucks for an entire year I’d say is very cheap .
    Read his previous weekly stuff on his site to learn a few things
    I could mention a few books yet I’ll leave you with this.
    I hope you find that helpful
    Joe

  • Joe Longwill November 27, 2018, 9:20 pm

    Verne
    I consider this present rally as a big bounce only .
    Read Peters headline : )
    I don’t think we get a Santa rally , just my thinking is all .
    Back to the grind for a couple weeks
    It will be nice to see if ol me puetz cycle has its day this year
    I mixed on that thought but we shall see soon enough
    Thank you Peter t for your message boards as well as
    Your hard work ! 🙂

  • Verne Carty November 28, 2018, 12:55 pm

    These rallies have been quite remarkable. I think we have had huger upside swings since the last top than we have had to the downside. This is very typical bear market behaviour so we cannot be too far from a final top imho. The fat lady is warming up…!

  • Joe Longwill November 28, 2018, 1:31 pm

    Willem
    From the sound of what you explained above I’m assuming your expecting
    An inversion in the Bradley model ?
    It shows a low surrounding Jan 20 .
    I do think the Bradley model has its merrits yet I’ll ask kindly
    Do you understand the details of how it was configured ?
    This being the long explanation with out the real details
    http://www.rosecast.net/bradley2007.htm
    More info with out the details
    http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/5_1/index_2.htm
    More helpful yet still missing the key details
    https://bradleysiderograph.com/formula/
    It’s looking to me like there are several versions out called
    The Bradley model yet are not actually ” the Bradley model ”
    Many do mimic it yet trying to find the basics to it appear have
    Been lost . I tried a simple Google search looking for the basic diagram
    Which I know exists and I do have it . It’s probably way back several pages deep
    Because of so many people trying to explain their own version of it .
    But it’s become difficult to find .
    The basic diagram shows which planet pairs are bullish or bearish on conjunction.
    By understanding those basics you can see what to expect going forward .
    The main focus of the Bradley model is for turn dates more so than trend .
    This is because certain aspects have a more consistant bullish or bearish outcome
    And the Bradley model uses several calculations along with weights that are not
    Consistant as a whole .
    The Bradley model is awesome but it’s not perfect .
    I have looked at it for a little over 20 years which is why I’d recommend you
    Dig further into it so you can understand how it is calculated .
    It will help you a lot to find that diagram
    Good luck with your research
    Just about every planet which conjunts the sun will be an up day
    Yet …mars Saturn or Neptune Pluto conjunct the sun are typically negative by Bradley .
    Mars conjunct any planet according to Bradley is a negative .
    Anyways I think you should take the next step and really dig into it further .
    Today’s rally is right on track – )

    • Willem November 29, 2018, 5:23 am

      Hi Joe,
      Thanks for the explination but I don’t use a model and I have seen some. I use a book that I bought in 2002-2005. That book gives an explination over the Bradley line into 2050 en dates. The line is OK and the dates sometimes not exact. I calculate them self.
      So the lines are permanent til 2050. Only inversion(mirror) is sometimes a problem to notice. I use my old indicator to check if Bradley looks OK.
      The end of Bradleys long decline pattern is arround 6 December. Thats normally where the LOW is. (My old Indicator gives also the end of a long decline pattern between 3-8 December).
      The red line confirms it.
      So I must stick to it.
      If we don’t make a LOW of any probortions The banksters 🙂 !!!
      When I am home I will sent the name of the Bradleys book.

  • Joe Longwill November 28, 2018, 1:38 pm

    Verne
    How many points up from the Oct low to the Nov high ?
    What % up from Oct low to Nov high ?
    How does that compare to the recent Nov low ?
    Where would these to rallies be equal in terms of points as well as %
    As well as equal in time ?
    What was the moon near the Nov high
    What was the moon near the Nov low ?
    When is the next moon which is similar or the same as the Nov high ?
    I’m not seeing much if a difference at this point yet I’m loving this rally : )

  • Joe Longwill November 28, 2018, 1:55 pm

    To paraphrase the late George Lindsay
    My thoughts
    The trend turn down in early October and then turned up in mid Oct .
    Lindsay stated you need a separating move and there must be 2 swings of
    Approximately 2 equal moves in terms of price and time .
    I can’t quote him directly because I don’t have his writings in front of me.
    This rally from the Oct low to the Nov high and this move from the Nov lows
    To it’s high will be considered the seperating swings of the main trend which is
    Down.
    Until proven wrong I must consider this nothing more than a separating rally
    With in a down trend .
    That is the technical backdrop if I throw timing out the window .
    This being the second rally means once this rally finishes we go back below the Oct lows.
    How far down is up to the market to decide .

  • Marie Slattery November 28, 2018, 1:56 pm

    Thank you Joe, I will buy his book..

  • Vivek Sahay November 28, 2018, 2:28 pm

    Great call on the strength of this rally Joe. My own target for this uptrade is around 2840, from where another sharp leg lower can start. Ideally the move to 2840 should be corrective. Given the time relationships, it seems like we can get a steep decline in Dec/Jan timeframe putting Santa Claus rally at risk. Not bad for Mr. Market to force out some shorts and trap some new longs before that decline.

  • Verne Carty November 29, 2018, 7:00 am

    Joe I fully agree.
    I had a few traders look at me bug-eyed when I opined yesterday that the main trend was down, despite the sharp rally. I do think it could exveed the Nov 8 high before it is over so I will be holding on to my SPY 269 strike calls for now. Several other cycle guys agree with Willem on an early Dec low. Ready for the big one down!!

  • Peter Temple November 29, 2018, 8:05 am

    I don’t get it. Isn’t the answer here to have everyone just exhale a bit more CO2 and get everything to warm up?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-28/weather-channel-its-been-one-most-miserable-starts-winter-record

  • rotrot November 29, 2018, 8:50 am

    From: rotrot
    Sent: Thursday, November 29, 2018, 10:38:24 AM EST
    Subject: FOLLOWUP: SPX, SVXY, & UVXY

    still unable to posts charts…
    SPX is moving toward a sell…
    SVXY has signaled a sell…
    UVXY has signaled a buy…
    ___________________________________________________
    From: rotrot
    Sent: Wednesday, November 28, 2018, 4:24:37 PM EST
    Subject: SPX, SVXY, & UVXY

    unable to posts charts at this time…the following is offered for consideration…
    SPX…was today’s rally the end of wave 4?
    11/08 – 11/15 wave 1? 11/15 – 11/16 wave 2? 11/16 – 11/23 wave 3? 11/23 – 11/28 wave 4?
    SVXY…appeared to move toward a sell signal during the few minutes just before the market close…
    UVXY…appeared to move toward a buy signal during the few minutes just before the market close…
    tomorrow we find out!

  • Verne Carty November 29, 2018, 2:12 pm

    SPX hit just above round number target of 2750.00! (2753.88. ES 2754.50)

  • Joe Longwill November 29, 2018, 6:49 pm

    Peter t
    After reading that article I thought maybe in a year or so
    Al Gore can say he saved the earth .
    Maybe the cow flatulence filters are having an effect ?
    This article from Martin Armstrong is worth a read .
    There is a couple links included .
    now they are proposing dimming the sun to counter this warming trend !
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/scientists-want-to-synthetically-create-a-volcanic-winter-are-they-just-nuts/

    Verne:
    Notice the previous rally from oct to early Nov , the 4 th day of the rally specifically .
    nothing ever correlates exactly mind you yet today’s sideways move was another similarity .
    A low on Dec 3-6 th would change my view on a few things yet we will see what happens tomorrow .
    If the similarities hold then tomorrow is an up day .
    If tomorrow has more downside then what I was initially thinking might ( most likely ) turn out wrong.
    I prefer a continuation up as it sets up the bearish trade yet being honest here I have a couple issues
    I’m concerned about . The Dec 3-6 date range is a key time frame I’m watching closely .
    As a low it has more bullish implications from my point of view and it dove tails with a Jan 20 mars Uranus cycle
    Low.
    Not saying I’m convinced either way just saying I’m following each cycle and each cycles typical market action .
    I’m feeling good so far yet I know I make mistakes from time to time and I’m open to what ever the market
    Tells me .
    All I can say at this point

  • Verne Carty November 30, 2018, 2:33 am

    Joe, that is an interesting correlation with the previous rally.
    I have been relying on price pivots to time my own trades. In my view the move above 25K and 2.7K in DJIA and SPX respectively has to be viewd as short term bullish. I expect those pivots to be briefly tested from above but according to my system the initial close above them is bullish. We are hitting stiff resistance at the area of the 200 dsma but I think after retesting the pivots tomorrow we break higher. Bottom line? I think the Santa Rally is underway and this possible C wave up is not complete.
    RUT already in a death cross and I expect the other indices will follow. A lot of traders are now confident of new ATH just ahead but I think we see new lows first.

  • Verne Carty November 30, 2018, 2:53 am

    One interesting development of course is Trump’s meeting with Xi this week-end. We all know exactly how that will end. We know how these guys roll. There will be some blather about reaching a trade deal over the week’end and the algos are going to go crazy with futures up 100 points. I plan to trade it both ways. I expect that manic move up to mark the end of the C wave and plan to fade it. Look for them to set a bear trap tomorrow ahead of the announcement. These people are devious. But they are quickly running out of trick plays like tax breaks to fund buy-backs, dovish Fedspeak, and now announcement of trade deal agreement…..tick…tock….

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 4:00 am

    Verne
    good points
    digging through a few things this morning before my shift>
    im in the ocean
    for what its worth feb 13-19TH is stacking up .
    i bring this up because its tied to the PUETZ cycle.
    Dec 3-6 Jan 4 JAN 20 AND Feb 13-19 all fixed dates.
    the Nov 23-26 dates had Nov 27 stacked up.
    no opinion at the moment.
    i brought up the late oct to early nov rally because
    its damn near a repeat cycle if the market repeats i wont be shocked
    but it is a bit mind blowing to see .
    next week monday Tues wed would be up into a peak>
    peters chart show next wednesday Nov 5th will be an awesome and
    insightful show no doubt .
    a dec 3-6 high is A perfect fit for a bearish set up
    time to work
    have a great weekend

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 4:05 am

    chart show wed dec 5 I meant

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 6:26 am

    I think this article on the 20 cycle should be read.
    As a believer in the benner business cycle along with my own work
    I always find it interesting when someone backs up what they write
    And this guy makes a good case for a bear market .
    Peter t has done a great job explaining his thoughts in regards
    To global cooling , the 172 and 500 year cycle and after listening
    To a recent interview with arch Crawford who stated even he is a
    Bit confused ( which he never says ) .
    I think it’s all in our own best interest to form our own opinions .
    that all said I’m sticking to mine .
    I’m going to bite my tounge for a week and let the markets prove
    Themselves .
    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/natural-time-cycles-a-dow-forecast-for-2018-2020/

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 6:42 am

    And of course don’t always assume peoples data is correct
    So double or triple check their work .
    Step 1
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_conjunction

  • Verne Carty November 30, 2018, 7:11 am

    One huge problem right now with cycle dates is all the machine trading going on. Live traders are now the minority in these dystpoian markets.

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 7:37 am
  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 7:38 am

    Agreed
    Yet I still thinking humans program their errors into those computer programs .
    Other wise these turn dates would not hit .
    Enjoy the weekend I’m done digging for now

  • Willem November 30, 2018, 9:15 am

    Hi Joe,
    If I watch in close up my indicators we should make a decline from today(free fall???) into Monday /Tuesday of huge proportions 🙂 It does not have to happen so be carefull.
    Yes I have short options. I have payd them from the profit I made with Peters forecast. So from the LOW on the 6th we are going up until the 19/20.

  • Verne Carty November 30, 2018, 2:39 pm

    Well, we certainly did not get a decline today as price continued to bolt much higher.
    Could this be a buy the rumor sell the news scenario?
    Some important moving averages being challenged today.

    • Peter Temple November 30, 2018, 4:20 pm

      I remember using that phrase today … lol.

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 7:36 pm

    So far the expected rally is still on track which should peak
    Into the Dec 3-6 time frame .
    the typical mercury retrograde cycle sees a decline into its mid point and then a rally
    That midpoint was Nov 26 , mercury goes direct on Dec 6 which if you add 10 days gives
    Dec 16 as a date. Since this past move has been more of the tyipical that 10 lag has less meaning
    Yet it still exists . The mars Uranus cycle called for a high Nov 7-8 and a low Nov 23 then a rally
    Into Dec 3. So far this combination using mars Uranus and mercury retrograde has been dead on.
    Mars Uranus calls for a high Dec 3, mercury goes direct Dec 6.
    The puetz cycle I have followed for many years . What I have observed is that approximately 1 month
    Prior to the solar eclipse you look for a new moon high followed by a decline into that solar eclipse
    It’s typically a choppy decline . Hence Dec 3-6 high into Jan 4 solar eclipse .
    Mars Uranus cycle is coming into its last phase , a high due Dec 3 and a low due Jan 4 .
    So a double cycle still in effect yet this does not include mercury retrograde since that cycle
    Is changing .
    The puetz cycle ends surrounding Feb 19 yet as stated prior the Feb 13-19 date range is full of
    Planatary alignments .
    Lastly
    The late George Lindsay created what became known has the Lindsay time spans for bull and
    Bear markets . Lindsay was an artist so he looked at the charts from an artistic view point and because
    Of that his methods did not always begin a time count from absolute highs or lows .
    Using the Jan 26-28 2018 date using the Lindsay time spans the maximum time frame for a low
    Would be March 8 2019 . I’m having doubts we see a market low that far out yet I’ll consider it a
    Secondary low or swing low time frame .
    Bottom line: this past year was forecast to be a bearish market and if you look around and
    Various stocks we have seen many of them down 30 to 50 % .
    It is very possible that many stocks will not make new highs next year even though the stock index’s will.
    In short the bear market has most likely already begun this year right in line with the benner business cycle
    high which is due in 2018. This cycle calls for a low in 2021 .
    All that said , this bear cycle is coming to an end and using many methods
    That end falls between Jan 4 2018 to March 8 2019 at which point a new bullish cycle begins .
    The Venus bull cycle has already begun .
    There is a huge confluence of bullish cycles ending Sept 6 2019.
    Despite the next phase down about to begin next week I think it’s important
    To keep in mind that PETER T has said we still have new highs coming before
    The next big bear market arrives .
    The point of the link showing the guys 20 year cycle was for informational purposes only
    It wasn’t about was he right or wrong but what to expect ( the typical ) once this 20 year
    Cycle ends , once the wave count ends . Once the bear market begins
    It will be a go short and hold affair if you really want to take advantage of it .
    So prepare now because a year from now we will be ready !
    That’s my big picture I’m working with .
    Get out of debt, plan your bearish trades , trade your plan
    thank you Peter for helping me get my mind back in tune
    You have helped me get back on track more than you realize
    Enjoy the weekend everyone
    I’m about finished posting here yet I have used this site for my own note keeping .
    I’m not going away I’m just going to get more focused .
    Joe

    • julie fiery December 2, 2018, 4:40 pm

      I have been following your comments all week. I am very impressed with what you have laid out. Seems the markets have been following your layout. I look forward to your future comments.

  • Joe Longwill November 30, 2018, 7:40 pm

    Typo That end falls between Jan 4 2019 to March 8 2019 at which point a new bullish cycle begins .
    The Venus bull cycle has already begun .

  • Verne Carty December 1, 2018, 9:53 am

    One of the things you will learn trying to analyse the market is humility.
    I completely dismissed a wave count a week ago that showed a completed fourth wave as complete nonsense. I took another look now after analyst moved the wave count up one degree to better fit the T.A. data.
    I could have been wrong in diamissing the idea. My own pivot signal from the move back above 2700 was also bullish. I think we may have already seen our short term low in this market, though I must admit it was not what I was expecting.

    • Charles Lloyd December 1, 2018, 1:04 pm

      Yes Mr Verne..looks like 2018 market bottom is in and now into 5th wave! Finally! Imma long at 2650ish and expecting 3k in not too distant future.

  • Verne Carty December 1, 2018, 4:03 pm

    I am looking for a move down to remain above 2700 before a bigger long position
    I scalped a good bit of the move up after clearing 2700 but took profits quickly. Took a small short position on Friday and will probably exit by Monday’s close after expected brief pullback. Five waves up means we are going higher.

  • Peter Temple December 1, 2018, 5:38 pm

    A new weekend blog post is live at: https://worldcyclesinstitute.com/hopium-has-its-limits/

I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. However, due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic.

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