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Market Forecast Overview

Posts reflect the most recent forecast using a combination of cycles forecasting and the Elliott Wave Principle. Posted each Sunday (and sometimes more often).

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in these articles are for illustrative and educational purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations.

Futures, forex, equities, and option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. You can lose everything! Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance either actual or hypothetical is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

The Summer Solstice Slide

The turn is in. The Summer Solstice was on June 21 (Wednesday of this past week). The Nasdaq topped on June 9. For my Trader's Gold subscribers, I'd predicted a turn for ES/SPX on that day at 2446, which it hit (and I called the NQ top as it happened). However, I also predicted one… Read More

Elliott Waves and Lemmings

Edward R. Dewey, who worked for US President Hoover in the 1930s was a pioneer in the discovery of natures cycles. They affect business, the markets, and so much more. In the Great Depression, President Herbert Hoover asked Edward Dewey, who at the time was the Chief Economic Analyst at the Department of Commerce, to… Read More

Elliott Wave: Triangular Oil

My focus this weekend is on contracting triangles, one of three types of Elliott wave corrective patterns (flats, zigzags, and triangles). This is timely because of the pattern in oil. We've been in a contracting triangle since early 2015. Contracting triangles are the most common type of triangle. When they’re in the fourth wave position, they… Read More

Elliott Wave: Probable Cause

The Elliott Wave Principle is a theory based upon probability. A common definition of "probable" is "a reasonable amount of suspicion, supported by circumstances sufficiently strong to justify a prudent and cautious person's belief that certain facts are true." There's a very good dose of science in it. The patterns repeat over and over again… Read More

Elliott Wave: The Long Term Corrective Scenario

I've maintained for several years that this final wave up in the US indices is a corrective wave. It simply cannot be motive, as it breaks too many Elliott wave rules. But I see so many disregarding the obvious, which is the main issue I have with all the "pretenders": They don't pay attention to… Read More

Events Don’t Change the Trend

All this talk about a Trump rally ... absolutely ridiculous! Elliott waves predicted this rally a years and a half ago—even longer, in fact. So, what are the financial pundits talking about this time? The thought of every word that Donald Trump utters having any real effect of the market is just ludicrous. Knowing that the… Read More

Elliott Wave: Taking Apart the Chart

Exactly, kitty! Let's take a look under to hood ... er, sofa in your case. This weekend, I want to look at the chart of ES (e-mini SP500 futures) and "pull apart" the idea that it's a motive wave. To do that, we need to look "under the fabric." Ralph Elliott cautioned that motive waves must… Read More

Elliott Waves: Pure Gold

Last week, I talked about the "right look" of motive waves. These are waves comprised of five subwaves. At the end of five waves, they have to retrace either 62% (corrective second wave) or 38% (corrective fourth wave) and then start another motive wave of 5 in the same direction as the first one. Motive… Read More

Elliott Waves: The “Right Look”

If you know anything about Elliott waves, it's probably that there are two types of waves: "motive" and "corrective." Motive waves are in 5 waves (trending waves) and corrective waves are in three waves (moving counter to the trend, or "countertrend"). Motive waves advance the trend through having a larger number of waves than corrective waves. Within those five… Read More

Elliott Waves and Probability

Interview Playback: Recorded Wednesday, April 19, 2017 Interview by Dale Pinkert You can watch here. Elliott waves are price cycles. The work by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s-50s identified a wave structure for the stock market the was heavily based on the fibonacci sequence, although his work most concentrated on the structure and, more specifically, market patterns. The… Read More