World Cycles Institute

Market Forecast Overview

18 Market Days Til Nov. 3

Corrective Surprises The takeaway from this past couple of weeks is that fact that the fifth wave up didn’t have a valid second wave in the usual, expected location. You can see this in the chart of IWM (the Russell 2000) that I’ve posted below. It was the same in the SP500 and in futures… Read more

An Uncertain Market Matches the Times

Lots of Unexpected Volatility The past week was a brutal week in futures, with lots of reactions to news. On Thursday night an ending diagonal broke and gave us a wave down that we were expecting after a new high — a nasty surprise. This was the start of a bearish B wave. Friday was… Read more

Bottom in Place?

Or a Double Bottom Ahead? My take at the moment, is that we’re only going to get a single bottom, and we that we haven’t seen the end of this fourth wave down yet. Relatively speaking, based upon the corrective wave structure up from March, this has been a notably long (in terms of time)… Read more

Tyranny and the US Election

Looking for an Interim Low We’re sitting this weekend near the bottom of a large fourth wave with one more final high waiting in the wings before the expected large drop into the 2100 area in SPX. Mid-week, when I expect a low, will have been 14/15 days down from the top. That leaves us… Read more

Danger Lurks

Looking for an Interim Low We’re sitting this weekend near the bottom of a large fourth wave with one more final high waiting in the wings before the expected large drop into the 2100 area in SPX. This is an expected, high probability 300 point rally in SPX and represents a really good bullish opportunity… Read more

Scary Timing

Down into October? Timing of the coming drop in the stock market across the world in certainly interesting. It could not come at a worse time for the current US administration. Late in the week, we saw a dramatic downturn in a fourth wave, which confirmed my count, and gives us a very clear path… Read more

The Floundering Fed

The Fed is Delusional This week at Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell attempted to justify his continuing pipe dream of a 2% inflation rate. He also tried to paint this scenario as a “good thing.” It would be a good thing for central bankers (!), as it allows them to keep stealing our money. However, it’s… Read more

To Turn or Not to Turn?

An Inflection Point “To be or not to be?” is William Shakespeare’s most often quoted line, and is uttered by Hamlet in the third scene of his play of the same name. He’s at a turning point, contemplating death over life. It’s often thought that he holds a skull in that scene, as he unveils… Read more

Whack a Mole

Up and Down …. This market is toying with us. Getting a top in place is like herding cats, or like Whack a Mole! “Whack a Mole” is a concession-stand game at fairs in which a player tries to “whack” plastic mole-like replicas with a rubber hammer as they randomly pop up from holes in… Read more

The Buck Stops Here

It’s a Waiting Game This market is toying with us. Getting a top in place is like herding cats. Everything is so close to a top, but when several cats (asset, or often whole asset classes) make it to a new high and one’s out of line, everything tends to drop back and then they… Read more