I’m expecting an imminent downturn in the US indices, and just about everywhere else.
The small fourth wave from the week before last took 5 days to the downside. I predicted that the fifth wave up would take a similar amount of time, projecting a top either this past Friday or that it could last into Monday. Here we are.
Look for a turn down very early in the week (if we haven’t topped already).
Above is the daily chart of the SP500. (click to expand)
I’ve labelled a possible flat in progress, showing a purple circle A, B, and C label on the chart. The C wave target is shown at 1.618 X the purple (A) wave, but the guideline is that the C wave can extend to 165% of the A wave.
The pattern to the downside can also be a set of zigzags. Less probably options are a triangle, or an ending diagonal.
The count on the upside is complete. Currency pairs are been oscillating up and down for weeks, as has oil. The US Dollar Index has retraced 62% of the previous wave to the upside and is ready for a turn up.
Everything is lined up (or almost lined up) for a turn. It’s now up to the market to follow through.
Elliott Wave Basics
Here is a page dedicated to a relatively basic description of the Elliott Wave Principle. You’ll also find a link to the book by Bob Prechter and A. J. Frost.
Registration for Commenting
Want to comment? You need to be logged in to comment. You can register here.
If you register, it protects your information. It also allows you to comment without filling in your information each time. Once you’re registered, simply go to the home page and click on the login link top right in order to log yourself in. Usually, you’ll be logged in for several days before needing to be logged in again.
Problem receiving blog comment emails? Try whitelisting the address. More info.
The best of them JL 2
Get an upper hand … JC 2
Have not had a losing week RW 2
A true expert in Elliott Wave FL 2
Couldn’t be happier … KK 2
Tops in your field DZ 2
US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)
Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).
We're still sitting near the top of a B wave that's risen to about the 76% level of the height of the previous set of waves down from the all-time high at October 3, 2018. Almost all the other assets I cover on a daily basis are hovering at inflection points. The "greed factor" is elevated as we've all but finished a small 5th wave up to a new high at about 2836.
The next major move is to the downside.
After a fourth wave down last week, this week, we tracked a small fifth wave to a new high. I'm unsure of the short term direction (whether we have one more slight high to go) but other than that, this corrective pattern up is done.
As I've been saying, the wave up from Dec. 26 is clearly corrective and, as a result, must fully retrace. This is supported by the US Dollar Index, the major USD currency pairs, WTI Oil, along with DAX and other international exchanges.
Summary: My preference is for a dramatic drop in a C wave to a new low that should begin this week. The culmination of this drop should mark the bottom of large fourth wave in progress since January 29, 2018 - over a full year of Hell. It may be a dramatic drop that lasts multiple months, and will target the previous fourth wave area somewhere under 2100.
Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final new high in a fifth wave.
Trader's Gold Subscribers get a comprehensive view of the market, including hourly (and even smaller timeframes, when appropriate) on a daily basis. They also receive updates through the comments area. I provide only the daily timeframe for the free blog, as a "snapshot" of where the market currently trades and the next move on a weekly basis.
Sign up for: The Chart Show
Next Date: Wednesday, March 27 at 5:00 pm EST (US market time)
The Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis in real time for the US market, gold, silver, oil, major USD currency pairs, and more. You won't find a more accurate or comprehensive market prediction anywhere for this price.
Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.
|"I think you are the only Elliot Wave technician on the planet who knows what he's doing.”|
|m.d. (professional trader)|
All registrants will receive the video playback of the webinar, so even if you miss it, you’ll be sent the full video replay within about an hour of its conclusion.