World Cycles Institute

Expect Volatility

“Nothing like this has ever happened before.” I hear it all the time.

Dead wrong.

We just can’t remember it. These cycles are longer than a human life and by and large, nobody pays any attention to history. No one alive can remember back to the previous period, a warm/dry cycle top which ended in extreme temperatures and behaviour before society collapsed altogether.

We’re at the top of both a 172 year financial collapse cycle and a stronger 515 year revolutionary cycle. The tide has already turned, as it has so many times before in history. As I’ve been predicting for over five years now, the climate is turning colder, bringing with it a turn of fortunes that will lead to an eventual overturning of the social order.

Dr. Wheeler and the Big Book

From the writing of Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler:

“In his ignorance, greed, and intemperance, man has continually gone from one extreme to the other. He is moved towards anarchy, exploitation of the underprivileged, unfair competition, and weakened government during cold times; towards excessive regimentation, reaction, persecution, communism, fascism, fanaticism, and the crushing of freedom and individual initiative during warm times.”

You’ll find more of Dr. Wheeler’s work in my recent post about his Big Book.

At cycle tops, the history is clear: “Once more, for the 26th time, a fiendish, nation-falling war corrupted after the moral tone of society had been lowered by excessive temperatures. Nothing like the atrocities that were committed hat ever happened in the memories of living man because no one was alive who could remember back to the end of the last epic that had terminated in a similar outburst of degenerative behavior.” — Michael Zahorchak, Climate: The Key to Understanding Business Cycles.

What we say this weekend, was a salvo in another attempted “nation-failing war,” a war that historically erupts after the moral tone of society has been lowered after a period of excessively high temperatures. As we turn colder and dryer (wetter first — as the pattern dictates, bringing floods and extreme weather), general anger and the oppression by tyrannical governments will devolve into revolution and civil war.

My video on Global Cooling is here. My video on climate and the stock market is here.

Expect the unpredictable behaviour of governments to continue as this cycle tops. It will affect the stock market on a short term basis, but the waves will continue to play out to a new top as predicted by the Elliott Wave Principle, until the greater social mood turns more negative than positive. That turning point is on the near horizon, as my current wave count predicts.

Stay safe.

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The Market This Week

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

The fourth wave triangle  continues to play out, as predicted. So, I'd give this bull market about a month. Then we magically turn into a bear market and we'll eventually head down at a breath-taking pace.

This week was a frustrating one in which the market attempted to go higher, but on Friday succumbed to the pressures and as in the process of correcting a series of triangles that played out in mostly a sideways fashion. I expect the uncertainty to continue this weekend.

However, come Monday, the direction is likely to be up as we continue to trace out the D wave of the triangle. Note that the C wave down is usually the most complex wave, but when it isn't (as in the present case), the D wave typically takes on that role, as we're quite obviously seeing here.

I would expect the next wave down (after we reach the 2780 area) to be much quicker, as this market is so near the top (we're seeing a lot of underlying weakness).

After the E wave down is complete, we'll take off again to the upside in a fifth wave, which will simply finish off the pattern. We'll get to a new high and probably more, but don't expect (as I've been saying for a very long time) a large fifth wave that travels any great distance.

Over the next week, expect more upside as we trace out the D leg of the triangle.

Summary:  More sideways to come as ES/SPX trace out a contracting triangle, which in a fourth wave position signals that a trend is about to end after one more wave (in this case, to the upside). That fifth wave up to a new high will be the end of the 500 year bull market.

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{ 23 comments… add one }
  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 2:40 pm

    Thank you peter for your time and effort
    Decennial pattern based on 90 years of history using daily percentage moves.
    I use this as a guideline only .
    https://imgur.com/hvhBGzn
    Joe

  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 3:15 pm

    long cycles work in progress
    https://imgur.com/DCw2KJd

  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 4:13 pm

    The moon is currently in Aries
    The moon is 29 days old

  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 5:35 pm

    dalton minimum compared to present sunspot cycle
    not exact but still a very close correlation
    https://imgur.com/VwCkDYU

    • Peter Temple April 15, 2018, 5:44 pm

      Interesting … but (lol) we have the Premier of our province telling us that if you don’t believe that the climate is caused by man, you’re crazy.

      I’d want to see more, of course, but it sure came down like a house on fire …

    • Peter Temple April 15, 2018, 5:48 pm

      My backyard is still full of snow and we have snow forecast for the next two days, although it probably won’t be enough to shovel. That’s the latest spring I can ever remember. Our temperatures are now finally in the low to mid single digits and the average is in the mid teens for this time of year (Celsius).

  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 6:42 pm

    It rarely snows down here and when it does it doesn’t stay long .
    that said 2 days ago it hailed and did stay overnight .
    also Feb march is the typical rainy season but this year other than a few days
    i have seen more rain than the norm for april .
    just my observations .
    No doubt in my mind the temp is cooler

    • Peter Temple April 15, 2018, 6:48 pm

      The order of climate change is cold and wet before it becomes cold and dry. We’re had a few years of flooding and that wetness may last a few more years before it becomes really dry. That’s when the worldwide famine takes hold typically.

  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 6:46 pm

    another thing ill mention
    last year i began noticing different birds
    this year a couple more different birds that i haven’t seen before down here.

  • Joe Longwill April 15, 2018, 7:25 pm

    thanks peter

  • John April 20, 2018, 8:36 am

    I expect the market to go sideways till April 24, after that down again till May 6.

  • Joe Longwill April 20, 2018, 2:41 pm

    Cash dow is now testing the 3.2 extension ( Daily chart )
    26616.70 – 26028.4 = 588.3 pts * 3.2 = 1882.56
    Jan 31 high at 26338 minus 1882.56 pts = 24455.44 = the 3.2 ext.
    feb 16 2018 high ( an expanded flat ) 25432.4 feb 21 low 24793 = 639.4 pts
    * 2.2 = 1406.68 pts . feb 27th high at 25800.3 – 1406.68 = 24393.62 ( another key level )
    24455.44-24393.62 is the pivot range for the cash dow .
    Todays low at 24375 was a slight poke below yet it will be the close that matters for today .
    Bottom line for me is we have probably just seen a swing low today .
    feb 6 swing low plus 14 trade days was a high on feb 27 .
    march 23 swing low plus 14 trade days was a swing low on april 13
    april 2 swing low plus 14 trade days equals today april 20th and were testing
    a 2.2 ext as well as the main 3.2 ext measured from the top!
    25043.8 needs to be tested and or broken next week .
    End of QTR plus 20 days = today april 20th .
    mercury retrograde with the 10 day lag .
    march 22 to april 15th .
    10 day lag = april 1 ( swing low was april 2 ) to april 25th <—-this coming wednesday.
    Im remaining short term bullish with in a larger bearish market

  • Joe Longwill April 20, 2018, 3:12 pm

    The close today ( i wasn’t paying attention to time when i posted above )
    dow closed at 24462.94 which is above the pivot range at
    24455.44-24393.62 for the cash dow.
    A technical Bullish close despite the down day .
    Weekly chart .
    we have a gap in the dow weekly chart and the dow closed higher for the week.
    The guide im working with does allow for a may 3rd swing low yet i have serious doubts that is what is going to happen .
    https://imgur.com/XmeNwVM

  • Joe Longwill April 20, 2018, 3:42 pm

    Iam not a big fan of the Bradley model yet it does have its moments so i follow it .
    it is still pointing higher into June 9th which should become an important price time relationship this year .
    for what its worth here is what it looks like
    https://imgur.com/aqRChXM

    • Peter G April 21, 2018, 7:30 am

      With all due respect, Joe (I do enjoy reading your market comments), the Bradley Indicator was never meant to predict magnitude or direction, simply inflection points. I feel basically as you do. You shouldn’t rely on it but, from time to time, it has been quite accurate in terms of turning points so it’s interesting to follow. By the way, I have not seen it mentioned here but one of the oldest historical technical indicators, Dow Theory, flashed a primary trend change signal on April 9 when the Dow Transports closed below their February closing lows. It officially marked a primary trend change from bull market to bear market. The fact that there has been a sharp rally since then does not change the signal. As with all indicators, however, there is no guarantee of success… 🙂

      • Verne Carty April 22, 2018, 12:38 pm

        I was sure you were incorrect about this until I realize you were talking about CLOSING price. Most of us missed that so thanks for the heads-up.
        The most significant price action last week was the surrender of the 50 day moving average by the indices in unison. That augurs ill for any near term bullish sentiment, unless of course the 50 day is reclaimed on Monday. I do not think it will.

  • Joe Longwill April 20, 2018, 4:12 pm

    Ill run this forward over the next week and see what it shows
    and ill overlay a dow daily chart over it to see how accurate
    or not it has been .
    Enjoy the weekend 🙂
    https://imgur.com/PWS6XLx

  • Ed April 20, 2018, 8:28 pm

    Joe,

    Thanks for the update! Your charts give me insight into your statements that you are “more about cycles and price projections” than precise Elliott Wave Counts. My interpretations. Probably misquoted you….but you are attempting to identify future price direction.

    Is that even close to what you are saying? Appreciate your insight!

  • Joe Longwill April 21, 2018, 12:48 am

    Ed
    you are correct in your thinking.
    I look at wave counts yet I look at them in hindsight .
    I look at cycles and timing and price projections first
    and wave counts after the fact.
    joe

  • Ed April 21, 2018, 2:53 am

    Joe,

    Revisiting you comments….Those 2.2 and 3.2 extension levels off the high in the Dow deserve to be followed and the price action around those levels are important to you days and/or weeks later. Would that be accurate?

    Since you are short term bullish within a larger bearish market…and looking for 25043 in the Dow…Is there a price level that would make you rethink your short term bullishness? It seems that a close back below your 2.2 extension level could
    be such a level.

    I say that because I have price levels that I am expecting and holding out for that never occur or just never quite gets there…and I have found that I must have a price level that requires me to change my thinking.

    Not challenging your views and analysis. Just simply trying to comprehend them.
    Thanks for sharing!

  • Joe Longwill April 21, 2018, 8:10 am

    Peter G
    thank you for your comments . i am not all that up on dow theory yet
    i do think it has merit.
    Ed
    the pivot range at 24455.44-24393.62 is where the rubber meets the road presently so Mondays close should matter. The next lower level for me is
    23754.17 if that range gets broken on a closing basis .

  • Joe Longwill April 21, 2018, 9:29 am

    Last Post for several days .
    The Jupiter Saturn Pair is not a pair i pay much attention to yet
    i do find it a bit intriguing in a much broader sense so ill just let the
    data fill in and watch over the next several months to a year.
    I have No formula of solid data on this pair so for me its just an observation.
    you can read others thoughts on it on the web .
    https://imgur.com/cXgksFa

    one example to read yet there are others . keep an open mind is all
    http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Jup_Sat/index.htm

  • Peter Temple April 22, 2018, 12:46 pm

I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. However, due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic.

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