The majority of people run away from conflict. They simply don’t want like confrontation. Any situation has to get to an unmanageable level before the herd will react and actually turn and fight. Of our three basic human instincts (fight, flight, or freeze), with what I’ve learned throughout my life is that “fight” is the last resort. The herd would rather bury their head in the sand, rather than do anything about the problem.
However, having built a couple of successful companies from the ground up, I’ve learned that confrontation and communication, although often uncomfortable at first, always end up getting you to a better place, even if you end up agreeing to disagree.
So it is with the coming crash and burn scenario we’re currently rushing towards. People say we could have stopped it, but that simply isn’t human nature and, if you’re like me and believe that we’re influenced exogenously (from beyond the confines of the Earth’s atmosphere), then operating above our basis instincts may not be possible at all … ever.
All that said, the destruction of the American oligarchy is playing out as predicted … on television and on the internet … for all to see … and hopefully learn from.
The good news is that the conflict, despair, and devastation that’s about to come our way always has a happy ending. It has always resulted in the advancement of democracy and a better world all round, for everyone except the oligarchs. It may not happen in my lifetime, but it will happen. History rhymes.
Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler (1892-1961) developed “The Drought Clock” (on the left—click to expand) to forecast recurring droughts, which coincide with colder climates. He found that every 170 years, the climate would turn colder and dryer, social mood would turn negative, civil wars would proliferate, and the economy would suffer from financial collapse. Larger cycles of 515 and 1030 years heralded ever larger and longer drought periods.
Although he completed his work during the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, he was able to accurately forecast the second half of the 20th century, based upon the cycles that occurred over and over again like clockwork from 600 BC through today.
The Drought Clock shows shorter 100 year cycles of cold and dry which are compounded by the larger degree 170 year cycle, when they happen at the same time. You can see that he forecast the start of a cold, dry 170 year cycle just before the year 2000.
Major 515 Year Cycles
The climate of the earth shifts from warmer to colder periods and back again, frequently in rhythms (cycles). History shows that nations are built on shifts from cold to warm. However, Nations crumble when the Earth’s climate shifts from warm to cold. International wars are mostly warm, civil wars are cold. Each phase, warm and cold, begins wet and ends dry. Cold droughts and civil war epochs generally coincide. A major cold drought and series of civil wars occur about every 515 years; generally less severe ones every 170 years. There are also shorter rhythms (100 years and 25 years, for example). Totalitarianism is typical of late half warm periods; democracy is revived during cold times.
Each of the revolutions of history, marked by the death of an old world and the birth of a new one, has been characterized by a great advance in democracy. Dr. Wheeler studied the period beginning at around 600 BC, because this is the start of reliable human history and climate records from ice cores and tree rings. His lifetime of work recording temperature and rainfall, and then correlating them with major events right through until 1940 is often breathtaking in the secrets about it uncovers about how the cycles of history play out. We’ll begin with Sparta.
In the early days of Sparta (prior to 600 BC), a famous lawmaker, Lycurgus, set up a democracy. Over time, however, it failed. Constitutional government gradually became a farce. The people were not allowed a voice; only state officers spoke at assemblies. Voting was done by acclamation. Young Spartans began their careers as soldiers and spent their whole lives in the employ of the state. Tyranny had taken hold once again, as it always does as the temperature increases. Sparta had become a city-state.
Nonetheless, Sparta had become a great force in the world. However, she found it more and more difficult to maintain the strength of the army. Graft and waste destroyed the public treasuries and led to bankruptcy. Sparta eventually disappeared from the scene. The climate had turned colder.
400 BC Cycle Top – The End of the Spartan Dynasty
(Click to expand any of the charts on this page)
Greek democracy, which was the beginning of our current political form, began in the 6th century BC. Solon (638-558 BC) is believed to have set up the foundations for democracy out of chaos. It took over another century before it really began to take hold.
Pericles (495-429 BC) was a prominent Greek statesman, orator, and general in Ancient Athens. He was at the helm of a Golden Age, where arts and literature were promoted. He began the building of the Acropolis. He built a democratic government to such an extent that he was called a “populist.”
However, over the rest of this cycle (once it turned colder around 400 BC), the political system began to move towards socialism. Alexander the Great revived the prominence and power of Ancient Greece through expanding its territory (during a short-term warm period). After his death though, Greece declined into decay (civil wars ran rampant) and was eventually overtaken by Rome. This was at the cold trough of the 500 cycle at about 146 BC, when Roman conquered Greece at the Battle of Corinth.
As it grew warmer, the Roman Empire grew stronger until the climax during the rule of Julius and Augustus Caesar. The height of the climate cycle (the warmest point) was also the height of the Roman Empire.
100 AD Cycle Top – The Top of the Roman Empire
The first major cycle of modern recorded history ended with the birth of Jesus (approx. 4BC – 33AD. Rome was past its cultural prime. An old world was dying and over the next several hundred years, a new world began to take shape.
The birth of Jesus marked the beginning of the new 515 year cycle and sparked a revolution that emphasized the importance of individual life and conscience.The birth of Christianity sparked one of the most profound cultural revolutions in all of history.
The Roman Empire went into decline as the temperature turned colder. By the time the bottom of the cycle has been reached, the Roman Empire had been split in two, Hadrian’s wall was being constructed to keep out the Huns, and treasuries were all but bankrupt through the expense of constant wars and the raising of minimum wages for the army (which proved to be the the final straw).
I’ve written more specifically about the decline of the Roman Empire in a previous post here, showing the parallels between then and now.
600 AD Cycle Top – The Byzantine Empire and Islam (Muhammad)
In this revolution, slavery as it had been practiced since Egyptian times, came to an end and serfdom took over. Serfdom was a much higher form of slavery and included new freedoms that had not been allowed before.
The top of the cycle marks the time of Muhammad (570-632 AD) and the founding of Islam, who was instrumental in uniting the Arabian world, and contributed greatly to an upsurge in the Arabian civilization.
600 AD began the first half of the Medieval (Middle Ages) period and lasted through the 10th century. Justinian (482-565), often called the last Roman Emperor, began the great Byzantine empire. During the reign of Maurice (r. 582–602), the Empire’s eastern frontier was expanded and the north stabilised. However, his assassination caused the Byzantine–Sasanian War of 602–628, which exhausted the Empire’s resources and contributed to major territorial losses during the Muslim conquests of the seventh century. In a matter of years the Empire lost its richest provinces, again as the temperature turned markedly colder.
China and Japan also went through a major cultural shift during this period.
Charlemagne (742-814 AD) arose in the west of Europe (during a later temperature high culminating at about 900 AD) and the Golden Age of Bagdad dominated in the East. The close of this 515 year cycle saw all of these great civilizations in decline.
1000 AD Cycle Top – The Printing Press
The printing press was invented at around 1440, and began a new cycle (just as the internet is playing a part now in the roll-over into a new way of thinking and eventually, a greater democratically-aligned world).
Feudalism began to spring up in Europe. This revolution saw the rise of the merchant class. The theory of justice became widespread, and together with loyalty, formed the basis of feudalism. Constitutional government had its beginnings in this cycle.
This cycle saw the birth of England, Scotland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Russia, France, and Germany. But the greatest rise was in Asia, with the empires of Genghis Khan and the emergence of the Seljuk Turks, and later in the 14th century, Tamerlane.
1600 AD Cycle Top – The Death of Feudalism
Absolute monarchy began to suffer during the early stages of this new cycle. The end of the warm period led to the Renaissance, which began in Italy and rapidly spread to the rest of Europe. The Reformation, or break from the Roman Catholic Church began at the same time in Germany and spread throughout the world at that time.
The revolution of the 16th century brought on tremendous advances in democracy. There was much more religious freedom. In spite of the Inquisition, modern science eventually won out. The power of kings under divine right began to diminish.
Local languages sprung up, allowing much more self expression, versus the domination of Latin before that time. Music became a major force with an underlying theme of freedom.
Above is the civilization chart I created based upon data that comes from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration—from the Greenland Ice Core Research project ending in 1992. Ice cores are an extremely accurate method of determining temperature back through the centuries. You can see the large temperature peaks every 1030 years – the red arrows. These extremely warm and wet periods supported bountiful crops and major societies grew to the height of their power. There are shorter periods of approximately 515 years that show smaller spikes in temperature. A good example is the Mayan peak at approximately 600 AD.
The 2000 AD Cycle Top – The End of the American Empire
As we move through this new revolution, the new world that develops will once again become “the people’s world.”
It is as the cold periods take hold and terminate the previous 500 year cycle that we begin to see democratic institutions spring out of the societal ashes. History doesn’t repeat; it rhymes. The changes will happen in unexpected ways, but they always usher in a better world for all in the end.
We’re starting to see the shift of power from west to east, as the dominating power, the United States sets into decline and China begins to rise in prominence. Each successive 515 year cycle sees the dominant power shift from east to west and then back again for the next cycle.
All of these major cycle tops swept in revolutions that involved a rising up of the oppressed against the upper class. The slaves and serfs each time had been at the mercy of a small, controlling class of the one percent. This upper class had collected all the money they could siphon out of the society of the time and left the middle classes practically destitute. Today’s bubbling unrest should be no surprise. It’s happening all over the world. The story is the same as it’s always been at the end of every 515 year cycle.
Every single one of these major cycles ended with mass migrations. Of course, you can see this phenomenon take place again throughout Europe.
During warm times, there’s an extension of state security measures. This is an integral part of the larger trend towards Statism and the loss of freedom. Today was are losing our freedom in so many ways. You just have to attempt to get on an airplane to feel the oppression and lack of freedom in the world today. Communism and socialism are the fears during warm times; unfair competition and anarchy are prevalent during cold times.
A great social upheaval always accompanies a turn from warm to cold. However, when society restructures and the lower classes regain control, when the degree of government gets back to a “just right” level, we will again experience a Golden Age—a time when it will be prosperous for all once again—when we again transition from a cold period back to a warm one once again.
Dr. Wheeler predicted the “new Renaissance” would take hold about the year 2000:
“The world is approaching again the heat climax of the 1000 year cycle. In fact, if this is true there is reason for believing that around 2040, perhaps a little earlier, perhaps a little later, a heat climax will occur that will exceed our recent one of the 1930s. This might well be the climax of the current 1000 year cycle. After that, glaciers will start advancing again and the world’s temperatures will fall, gradually, until a cold climax is reached around 2500 AD. Then the modern world will again experience and upheaval as complete as that which terminated the Middle Ages and inaugurated the modern world.”
Buckle up. Things are about to get even crazier. We’re watching the destruction of an oligarchy and a plan by the financial elite of the world to take total control of the world’s population through the control of our money. However, if you’re a student of history, and in particular, of cycles, you know that simply is not going to happen.
Welcome world, to the financial revolution … once again.
I have another interview coming up on Trunews on November 11, 2016.
Projections For the End of the Rally
Above is the daily chart of ES (emini SPX futures). We’ve been in this fourth wave of the ending diagonal for about 10 weeks. The second wave took 9 weeks, so the fourth wave is be nearing an end.
USD currencies have, for the most part, already turned. The markets around the world (as I’ve been saying since September of 2015) are getting more and more closely aligned. We have an international “market convoy” for the first time in history. It’s not good news.
There is one final wave to go in the decadent party we’ve been experiencing for the past century or so. Elliott waves are the micro harbinger of the future. The turn will occur when the final pattern has fully played out, when the mood of the masses have turned more negative than positive. That time is almost at hand.
Summary: We are completing the final fourth wave of the ending diagonal before the final fifth wave and the top of the largest bubble in history. The long awaited bear market is about to get into full swing.
Let’s look at a couple of projections of mine during the last week in the Trader’s Gold service.
Update Thursday, Oct. 27, 10:40 am further update
If you’re a member of the Trader’s Gold area, you know I predicted the final wave down as it was happening
Updated: Above is the 60 minute chart of ES (emini SPX futures). All the waves up last night are in 3’s, so that suggests a complete retrace down. Measurement of the A wave down now tells me we’re likely headed back down to 2117 (1.618) in ES. That would be the start of the triangle, which would make this whole mess of waves up a double second wave. A third wave up would follow.
So now I would expect up to 2134 or so (B wave) and then down to the target in a C wave.
And that was exactly what happened.
Above is the daily chart of EURUSD. You can see my prediction on October 21 for a turn up in the euro. The euro has now turned as predicted and is heading up to finish the final E wave of the triangle.
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Thanks for the post Peter! Great stuff!!
Your work helps so many of us..
I will continue to watch for the bounce..
So many signals are saying the crash is here and starting now and a up move would have completely caught me off guard if I did not have World Cycle Institute to keep me balanced..
With the SVXY putting in a dark cloud cover candle stick formation on the weekly time-frame and the S&P below the 50, 21, 13 & 8 on a daily chart and now closed below the 21 ema on a weekly chart an up move will catch a lot of folks by surprise..
Thanks, Jody! Much appreciated. 🙂
you predict an “incumbent” Clinton win, with a new push to the upside? the rallies for trump are massive. clinton can barely turn out a few hundred. ‘DRAIN THE SWAMP” represents anger at the corruption, and indicates a very negative social mood. THE FBI INVESTIGATIONS REOPENED against clinton supports the negative social mood.
sorry, i am seeing a LANDSLIDE Trump victory. the implication is a falling market.
if we see a push to the upside it will represent only one thing – as Trump says “the system is “rigged, rigged, RIGGED!”……
what say you peter? :-))
Where did I say that? I’m predicting a Trump win. I’m with you. I don’t ever remember writing that I expect Clinton to win … ever.
Some fairly damning evidence, I think: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-30/former-fbi-asst-director-accuses-clintons-being-crime-family
And as I have been saying over and over and over again, and has been proven over and over and over again, events have no major effect on the markets. The entire financial system is not going to collapse because a person in the US wins an election.
where is project veritas when you need them. i feel ‘visciously’ attacked by peter, much as donald trump had to incur by the sneeky dirty tricks of hillary clinton “paying” agitators to create riots and violence at trump rallies.
:-)) peter, yes you are on record of saying donald trump winning, and you are on record saying events do not change the EW counts. i needed to stir things up a little on a sunday while we quietly wait for this market to finally play this out.
haha … you think things are not stirred up? This is the best TV that’s ever come out of the US. It sure beats 60 Minutes on a Sunday!!!
I live in Canada so I’m not emotionally involved in the election. I did live there (Long Island) as a teenager for a few years (some 240 years ago … or so it seems) and spent a fair amount of time there since. So I have a bit of a unique perspective and I’m fascinated in watching this all play out given what I know of cycles (and having been in the media almost all my life).
I’m simply amazed at the levels of corruption in media, Wall St., politics, you name it … and how it’s all going to come crashing down. The good guys will win. It’s like a 1950’s Lone Ranger saga (he was my hero when I was eight).
Trump is what the nation needs, but I’m concerned about what’s to come knowing the history of those who have gone up agains the banking cartel. This movie is just getting started …
btw, I very much enjoy your posts and your obvious boundless personality that comes out in your writing. It’s an art and you’re very good at it.
thank you peter! you are “well” kind and too generous with your words.
….and what was that saying, if the USA “coughs” canada catches pneumonia – sooo if the USA goes full frontal “totalitarian” ……..
so it seems to me that canada has a very much vested interest in the outcome……
oh, and did you see some of the wikileaks – i have been reading – on 6 separate occasions Podesta was being informed in detail about the Canadian elections under Trudeau…..my question is “why”?? why such an interest??
I don’t know, but we have a child as our Prime Minister, who came out with the following profound statement after signing the new CETA trade agreement with Europe, which nobody seems to know much about: “Hard things are hard.”
He likely worked diligently on that during the flight over there. Stunning.
We have a provincial premier and a mayor of our city, who are even worse. Most people I know are tired of all three of them.
“Weak leaders” at the top of this cycle is an understatement. So, we’re all in this together.
Thanks for Worldcyclesinstitute.com, your research and current market assessments are top notch =).
tanks, bud. 🙂
PALS this week:
Seasonals: very positive
Phase: very positive
Distance: negative (Apogee tomorrow, farthest lunar distance, usually negative day of and three days following)
Declination: negative (lunar far south position Friday, days before usually negative)
Summary: PALS is equally balanced so no useful indication either way. My bet/guess is that market rises, am using SPY options.
OK EVERYONE – you must check out this video. skip ahead to 2:50 to begin.
it captures perfectly our collective hillary ‘angst”! ….and for those of you without said ‘angst” – well then it captures this trading range “angst” we have been in for months!
Peter, Were you looking for a turn up at 2117 or was 2100 still in the cards?
And at what point would you abandon your count and accept the crash is here?
once my intermediate analytics turns bearish [which would indicate with a high degree of certainty – that the top is in – i will be on that boat called “crash”!
so far, it is still reading “neutral” – will know if there is a move at the end of trading today.
otherwise, if we bounce – i am on that boat called “ending diagonal”……
how is that for being a complete human “sponge”…….and where is Andre these days?? andre, what say you?
Looks to me the SPX is moving as Andre’s near term roadmap guided us.
Luri, Sounds good – let us know how that analytics turns out.. 2100 is a pretty big support so this might be the end of 4 but we could just be gathering steam to blast through it on a second attempt. Maybe a gap below 2100 tomorrow or close below today would resume and @ 2080 we are under the 200 and I would expect major selling. Curious what Peter has to say..
tentatively end of 4 with an ending diagonal … a dramatic one at that. We’ll have to see if it holds.
jody, the market will have to prove itself. i am starting to see positive divergence on the daily time frame, so either the market “overthrows”those divergences and we really start to gather downside momentum, or end of 4th wave ending diagonal looks to be baked into the cake. a hard “V” bounce would support that ending diagonal count of peter’s which kinda looks like the market is doing right now….we shall see..
Finally Overlapped with Wave 1 on spx at 2111.
Could you put me in your mailing list?
lys1933 at gmial dotcom Thank you :o)
Hmmm. If the DIIA drops below the Sept 12th low then I’m going to call it a 5th wave from the August 15th high. Otherwise it’s an ABC down from the August 15th high.
IF it turns into a 5th wave down then I think we are ‘at least’ in a larger down wave or the start of something that andre has been talking about.
Let’s wait patiently…..in the interim.
Just an addendum….today’s move DOES look like a ‘thrust’ out of a triangle.
On the chart you posted…What are the “two” lines represent? Are they 2 separate moving averages? If so, are you watching the interplay of those averages? …or am I way off base? Thanks in advance!
“What are the “two” lines represent?” – Have no idea what you are referring to.
I clicked on the link you posted at 8:25pm. It took me to FaceBook link showing a chart actually a series of charts…the post says it is a monthly chart and mentions that a 13 month EMA had been violated.
I was simply wondering what comprises the very first chart! Thanks for responding!
I neglected to mention that it is described as a chart of the NYA…
2111 is critical on S&P. As long as above no panick. But a close below will be ugly.
This level changes every day (price = time; so price moves with time).
Do you have the dates of the mercury latitude cycle @min – @ 0 – @max for 2016/17 ?
Thanks in advance.
Certainly. Will post them this weekend.
am i correct in that today is FOMC day? will they ‘raise’ or ‘un’raise day? will janet yellin finally reveal some exotic highlights added to her ‘boyish’ hairdoo??
interesting thing, the ES spent the entire night trading ‘outside’ its lower band for 2 standard deviation trading…..hmmm… shout out to ‘jody’ – will we get follow through to the downside? rather than bouncing? i think jody sees downside, and she may be ‘right’.
Thx Luri.. There are a couple spots in play like 1980, 1945 but **1870** might be the next target, and as it unfolds if we are in fact heading down and not back up for a blow off wave 5 it will become clearer – but 1st 2080 has to be breached and closed below..
And I am a dude.. lol
JODY !! HOLY CRAP!
ok – ladies and gentlemen of the jury, and in my own defense, i DID write ‘she’ – but…BUT….. i was strung out on heroine and cocaine [by way of Mena arkansas – and the clinton dominated drug trade], and oh yes, and i had just eaten a case of ‘marshmallow peeps’. HAVE YOU EVER EATEN A CASE OF ‘MARSHMALLOW PEEPS’ JODY?? let me share something with you jody, the WHOLE fudgin world inverts itself, and everything becomes super feminized! so in my haze- ladies and gentlemen of the jury – i wrote ‘she’.
for the record, i am initiating a law suit against the marshmallow peep corporation – and as well i “apologize’ to you jody. jody = dude!
hey that 2080 level is also the lower band of the two standard deviation trading range on the “weekly” time frame. the lower band is positive sloping and should act as support for prices. so we will see how that level of prices behave.
my black box of analytics is still indicating ‘neutral at the ‘intermediate time frame. i am still waiting for it to point bearish to confirm the top. once that happens, you will be the first to know.
I knew there was a simple explanation …
Here ya go, Luri: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeXQBHLIPcw
skip, a video like that is only “funny” until someone gets their eye POKED out!! and then what skip??…..and THEN “WHAT”! that’s right – “I WILL SUE!”
omg – that was hilarious!! a most excellent choice!
UVXY (VIX – ETF) appears to be flagging with a $6 pole – a close on any time frame above $18.61 will confirm.. $18.61 add $6 = $24.61will be the measured move and if UVXY is at $24.61 S&P going to be appox 2040.
Peter – you had mention S&P 2080 or so a few months back, would we still have the correct look for a ED W4 @ 2080 and would S&P 2040 change you outlook?
Nope, this is about it. Because the trendline slopes up, 2080 a while ago isn’t in the cards anymore.
my understanding of Elliott wave theory is it tells you when you are
wrong ? it’s forecasting ability is very good .
we are in many bearish cycles that existed in the 2008 decline .
these cycles coincidently dove tail with the elections as well as the inaugeration on Jan 20th .
events may not move the market in the big picture yet these same
bearish cycles have been in place in previous steep market sell offs .
this does not mean the market must collapse yet it does mean if the market does indeed collapse the bearish cycles in place have a history of providing very steep market declines .
read into that as you wish .
this election event based on these bearish cycles warns of lower prices into Jan 20th .
the degree of decline though is up to the market to prove .
all suprises should be expected to the downside .
staying bearish despite the potential wave 4 .
bottom line the market rose in 3 waves and that is corrective .
a failed 4 th implies the June lows as the initial downside objective
The Clinton hole deepens … http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-03/fbi-said-move-likely-indictment-clinton-foundation-fox-news-reports
“LOCK HER UP!!!”…..LOCK HER UP!……lock her up!………!
i can see a possible indictment “BEFORE” the election – which makes her ineligible!
Aaah Luri, Luri….where is the ‘fun’ in that? Let her believe that she will be the first female POTUS ….. AND THEN snatch it away from her. Now that is what would be both deserving and FUN!! (Am I a degenerate?)
yes you are a degenerate! so i suppose we have”that” something in common. :-))
Potential 5th wave in an ending diagonal to finally finish up wave four. Target on SPX is around 2090-2091. Most of this morning looks like a trigonal that we may have broke out of around 12 eastern.
Nice one Ted….I concur. It does appear to be an ending diagonal. However on the DJIA (which is what I trade/follow) that would represent a 5h wave down from the 15th August highs. (Chart with count to follow IF it drops below the 12th Sept lows.)
Wave structure looks busted to be a – v – of W4 at this point.. I see what you are referring too though and we are in over sold conditions but in a strong wave throw stochastic out the window it don’t work.
If we can close above 2100 today then I would be inclined to believe we could head higher..
However a close below 2088 would continue to give merit to what I have been saying. I still think we are in W1 down. We have a completed on the smaller time frame i & ii and now working in iii of EW1 and 1870ish will be the end of iii of EW1 once that is done we can calculate iv and I believe v of EW1 ends about 1725ish.. Good luck all!
the general ‘walk down’ nature of the markets over the last few months are antithetical to the strong selling we should be seeing in a W1 down. we ‘could’ be in a wave 1 down, but so far the look down from the top is ‘managed’. these are hallmarks of a potential 4th wave. [my black box medium term analytics are still at ‘neutral’ – so am unable to give support for a wave 1 down yet.] what about are your views on the ‘general’ look of the market from the aug.15th top? because in the end – it all has to have the right ‘look’.
Connecting the Feb low to the June low tells the story to me..
If we close below 2080 we will be under the 200 SMA and EMA.. Institutions should start selling at that point and your thrust should start to happen and the control we have been seeing will turn into panic.. Maybe 🙂 lol
The bottom of that triangle is showing support right now and does give the impression we should turn higher and we very well could.. It would be classic though if they left us hanging today then gap in the morning one way or another…
I am not sure if we bottomed yet so my trend line is now at 2089, though we did hit at around 2091. Agree with Luri that from the 8/15 top the move down does not look motive, as there is a lot of overlapping waves that look more like a wave 4 triangle. Looking at the move down from 2007 and 2000 tops look much more motive than this down move so it doesn’t seem to fit. I am also seeing bullish momentum divergences using the MACD and RSI at small time frames that could lead to some at the large time frames as well.
I am bearish long term i just don’t see that clean motive wave down to give me confidence it is here. I think this is the bulls last dip to buy!
Ya but if we put EW aside for a minute and think about mood.. Who would really be buying at this point with the election days away and it is clear the Trump train going to run over Clinton and they can blame the sell off on him.. lolol..
Agree with those points!
From this point to 2082.43 would be a spot that some would be buyers @ if we are going to see a swing up I would think.. Oscillators are stretched at this point and it would make sense..
Under 2080 though would be tough in my opinion even with the over sold condition.. That is usually the line in the sand for the big boys..
I think you asked me about 2080 and I said I didn’t think so. Well, that’s exactly where ES went to. Ending diagonals are impossible to measure because there’s nowhere to measure from … you’re eye-balling trendlines. But I put us at the end of smaller ending diagonal just about everywhere at the end of the day. It dropped a lot further than I thought it could, but I still think the larger one is intact … barely.
The other thing I’ll mention is that when a short term trend is all over the news, it’s done.
A gap in either direction would be really interesting. Other crazy stat that we have now had is 8 down days in a row and not a single one was a 1% down day (SPX).
Do you still see 11/4 high? The SPX is well under 2111 now. Thank you.
Would it be safe to assume that you are expecting upside from this point?
We close below the 200 EMA today.. That is usually a sign for more selling…
Yup. The usual devious market.
What is so tricky is we have seen this formation 2 other times – July 2015 and Dec 2015 both once they broke support it was off to the races to the downside..
If we break back above 2100 is when I will expect more upside but under ALL the moving averages good book says to be short..
Thanks for the heads up…
If you believe it’s not a large ending diagonal we’re in or that we didn’t have an ending diagonal in futures and cash today, and if you’re not paying any attention to what currency pairs are doing (or the dollar) …then I’d be short, yes.
In any case, not the same pattern as the two dates you mention. btw, they both retraced to a higher level, cause they were corrective.
I do peak at the $UUP once and awhile and I see and big bull flag with a Breakout to the upside and a pullback to check before it goes higher but I do not spend hardly anytime on it, I watch the Russell 2000, VIX and SPX mainly..
A strong dollar is bad for stocks they say but IDK.. That is more your dept;)
I haven’t had a chance to look at the market overall tonight and I have to head out to a meeting, but I think my alternate configuration for the ending diagonal is going to play out and that would make this leg a second wave rather than a fourth. That means we’d have a smaller ending diagonal. IWM and SP500 are down too far. ES doesn’t appear to be.
However, there really isn’t any other option than an ending diagonal playing out, because we’re up from Feb 11 in 3 waves. Will have to take a look tonight. We’ll see what happens tomorrow. I’ll post on the weekend.
Hi Peter, so basically you think we are at an earlier stage of the ending diagonal per my past comment below? Thank you
jp nor October 19, 2016, 11:21 pm
Peter, what if the leg up from the February lows to mid-august high ( a three wave structure) was only wave A of the final ABCDE ending diagonal and we are now in wave B down that could go much lower than 2100 into late October. Then we will have waves C, D and E to finish wave 5 into mid next year. Does it make sense?
Nothing to say it couldn’t other than the fact that we had an ending diagonal down yesterday, which has capped this wave, imho.
imo yesterday’s ending diagonal may have been the end of wave c of C to be followed by wave d up and wave e down to complete wave B or 2 of the ending diagonal. if this is the case we should bottom by mid November and explode upwards into wave C up of the ending diagonal.
part of the ” jody trade”
Now that the DJIA has poked below the 12 Sept low (just) I am presenting my count from the 15 Aug high for consideration/comment.
overlap?hmmm …….alternative bearish? – could it be a series of 1-2, i-ii ‘s kicking off the avalanche waiting to happen – otherwise known as the ‘jody’ trade?
No overlap luri. The ‘end’ of the 4th wave did not overlap the 1st one. That’s the ‘tricky’ bit about triangles. You can only look at the end of the triangle to decide whether an overlap occurred.
In any case a 5 down means AT A MINIMUM a corrective up followed by another down. Of course it could turn into something more akin to what andre and MR Jody (lol 🙂 ;-)) have been saying. ….Although you did put your foot right ‘in it’ you managed quite a nice recovery too. Humour is a great asset and you have that in spades.
3rd night where we see the ES trade “below” the bottom band of its 2 std deviation trading range – ‘very odd’……
from ‘oversold’ comes the potential of very quick price drops, but still i am unable to support ‘price’ in any direction as long as my fudgin’ black box analytics is still ‘neutral’. still waiting for a change to ‘bearish’…… do you know what it is like to walk with a “pebble” in your shoe!!! my black box is painfully agonizing me! does anyone want a slightly used and reliable “black box”?? huh – anyone …anyone want my black box?
and where is Andre when you need him!!
luri, my ‘expert’ opinion on ‘black boxes’ is that you have not fed it enough data. You must continuously feed data to black boxes UNTIL they come up with the answer you require.
A bit like the Brexit decision in here ‘dreary’ UK. They’ll keep finding ways of saying ‘think again’.
you mean ‘goal seeking’??? yes, i have a goal seeking black box too, unfortunately it says ‘super bearish’ – i also use it as a ‘planter’!! i have an avocado tree growing in it now…. :-))
Aaah yes ‘that’s the technical phrase that was eluding me. Of course ‘goal seeking’.
Send me some avos. I have a good guacamole recipe.
Pebble in your shoe? https://youtu.be/bKxAbbeD-NU
Phoenix Capital had expected the market to fall a little more before risk assets rallied, but now believes the bottom is in and a major blow off top is soon to occur.
SKIPPY – GENIUS! THANK YOU!
I’m glad you liked it, Luri.
PALS next week:
Phase: bearish all week, post New Moon
Distance: bullish all week, post Apogee
Declination: bullish all week, post South most position
Seasonals: bullish pre holidays trade
Summary: PALS is mostly positive next week. Long tech sector looking for typical pre holiday rally.
So I just want to say I could care less about being right or wrong on a call.. All I care about is being on the right side of the trade and recognizing quickly when I have it wrong.. Trying to time a reversal or catch a falling knife or think I know what is going to happen next and getting cute has cost me $$$. The reason why I am bearish today is because that is what the market is showing me.. Looking through the weekly charts in the major sectors and bigger companies there is nothing that says we go higher next week. We closed at the bottom of the weekly candle and next week when we open **IF** we start to take out the low of this week on the DJIA, COMP, SPX and RUSSELL the computer algos will kick in and we will decline further. The time to get tactical and look for upside is if this weeks low holds and/or we start to go green on the week next week and if the does happen a stop should be placed just a few ticks below this weeks low. Folks we have done something that has not be done in 36 years with the down day today.. Stay safe!
what my focus is on is the ‘risk parity’ funds, and the CTA’s. both aug 2015 and jan 2016 were reflections of their ‘rebalancing’. this side of the market is the marginal price setter. it looks eerily similar to aug 2015. there is rumblings from the quant guru Kolanovic from JPM. he called that aug 2015, and jan 2016 price moves perfectly, and he is giving a heads up now through the grapevine.
so the potential for a very very fast price dislocation is both possible AND probable.
so sharing is always best.
Thanks for sharing..
Do not know if anyone else is looking at it but – Monthly Chart of the S&P – Take the 2007 high and connect Nov 2014 and pull it across then on the low side March 09 low connect to Aug. 11 low and up.
Plain as the nose on your face “Raising Wedge” and we are on the cusp of the bottom trend line.. The measured move will be the bottom of the triangle or just a little past when its broken SPX 555 possible..
I trade whats in front of me and am liquid at the end of the day but – the party is over and it turned in Oct.
Get ready for 2008 but way way worse..
are you using “log’ or “arithmetic” for settings on that monthly timeframe? and you focus on the dow right?
oops, just noticed you said 555 on spx…..ok….i have the chart on both log and arithmetic., and yes, i can see what you are seeing….
We are headed for a high 11/18. No need to repeat my long term outlook.
After 11/18 a w3 like decline into early december. We will keep bouncing around into 11/11; that should be a low. Monday. Tuesday and Friday the strongest days this week but not as strong as 11/18. Have some work to do. Mercury lattitude tomorrow.
The peak in momentum was 9/22 when lillith was 60 degrees on the node.
Mid Oktober a long term cycle turned down. It is a wonder markets stay levitated.
So the bias is down. Everything up from now on will be a retrace. After 11/18 nobody will be in doubt anymore. Until then people will keep praying for the Christmas rally that won’t come.
Monday we have a tidal inversion and 11/5 mercury changes mansion. 11/8 should be a 47td low but 11/11 should also be a low. So 11/5 is a strong day, giving a high on Monday. supported by the tidal inversion. Then down into Tuesday. If Friday gives a new low, then Thursday is the most likely day for a high.
After 11/11 abc up 14h /16l /18-21h.
Carolan’s light day is 11/12- thus a low.
This month we are under the spell of the 11/14 supermoon. And after the first quarter 11/7 we are headed for that supermoon. With the lunar declination max north 11/17 we have a shockwindow from 11/11 til 11/17.
11/7 is a BR36. 11/10 br17 and 11/19 also br17.
The HC Saturn timing gives a low 11/10 based on the 5/19 low. And the 10/31 high predicts a high 11/18 using Saturn.
10/9 max +
12/3 max -/-
1/4 max +
2/25 max -/-
4/9 max +
should be enough for now.
Can’t thank you enough andré!
Hillary wins. Markets are relieved. We rally. Reality hits in December when the Fed raises or scares the market by not raising, no matter the purported catalyst, and we fall. Seems a likely narrative to me.
your note below makes complete sense to me
yet my question would be : wouldn’t that imply a larger rather
than short ending diagonal ?
the rally from Feb to August being wave 1 and this decline being wave 2 ?
back in 2015 i was very convinced that we were in a huge 4 th wave triangle which began in July- Sept 2014 . I still can’t rule that out .
the Feb lows are my main concern into January
but I think my alternate
configuration for the ending diagonal is going to play out and that
would make this leg a second wave rather than a fourth.
As always Andre…quite illuminating.
The delta system says patterns repeat every 1440 degrees of lunation (sun-moon-elongation).
7/27/15 was a low after the 7/20 high. 4 times 1440 gives 11/11/16. This should be a low.
12/1/15 was a high (caused by HC Mars conjunct Jupiter). 3 times 1440 gives 11/19. 3 times 1440 is major as it is one lunar Year (354 days).
5 times 1440 on the may high gives 12/30. So delta says the will be a Santa rally. This is confirmed by 90 lunar years from the 1929 high; gives 12/29. So I may have said there won’t be a Christmas rally; the delta system disagrees.
The 1932 low gives a low 12/4. The 2009 low gives a low 12/9. The 8/24/15 low gives a low 12/8, So 3 major lows give a low within 5 days.
It really looks like we will be down into early december and see a recovery into year-end. I doubt we will see new highs as my cycles are all down.
For now it’ll be down into 11/11 and then up into 11/18. Combining BR32 on the 6/23 brexit high with br14 gives 11/17, The outer planet average gives 11/18. Then the sun will be 45 degrees on the death and destruction midpoint as on 12/25/15.
The major supermoon 11/14 will be tested but the change in trend will be pushed foreward by 4 days,
Another reason 11/11 is important is that the moon crosses the magnetic bow shock and enters the magnetotail. This affects the earth’s magnetic field. Hence, these point are inversions. 3 days before and 3 days after the full moon. Only with full moon.
One scenario is that both 11 and 17 will be lows and the high shifts from Friday 18 into Monday 21. But that is the last date for the decline to start into december 7-ish
Peter (for you only) – Hadik (subscription required) expects the market to decline to Thursday or Friday and set an initial low then, with potential for a violent spike down this week. He expects the market to keep falling to the end of November, with a ~7.5% decline in the Oct-Nov period. If Trump wins, or the election results are up in the air, this would likely cause at least an initial sell off in the market on Wednesday (and possibly continuing), and be consistent with Hadik’s view. I follow you, Hadik and Phoenix (and you all have strengths in certain areas, with Hadik being a little more accurate in the timing of stock movements; you have been better at currencies, with Phoenix good at making short term investment decisions but not on the timing of big moves). How does Hadik’s view on the market “square” with your interpretation of EW? In your analysis, could the market fall a little more through month end before rallying from there?
Heads Up: the Moons Node, Rahu, begins adverse motion Monday (11/7) through Thursday (11/10). Adverse describes the motion relative to norm, not necessarily a market reaction. Digging a little deeper, it’s 2nd order derivative of motion changed from negative to positive on 11/1.
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