World Cycles Institute

Struggle to the Top

7 Market Days Left to Struggle

Up to the top under some duress.

It took quite a long time to get turned around in futures with an outlook now to the upside. Friday finally gave me the wave structure to call a B wave bottom in place.

This week saw ES and the SP500 with bottoms at different times and, while we waited and wondered, different wave patterns in both, which made things uncertain, to say the least. With second waves in place as of Friday, we seem to now be on the way to completing this seven month corrective wave up in the NYSE and related US sub-indices.

It’s been a difficult wave structure to navigate (being corrective) and having the Nasdaq side tracing out a motive pattern. It’s made for some strange wave structures along the way.

The good news is that we’re in the final leg across the board and most assets I cover are in ending patterns (diagonals and triangles). As far as the diagonals go, (and mostly likely the triangles, as well), we will have pre-defined maximum levels for the highs. The question regarding topping specifics will be mostly related to timing.

Above is the daily chart of EURUSD showing the 2016 election period. The election that year fell on November 8 and we knew the results late that night (or in the early hours of the next day). The chart above shows the immediate reaction.

While the EURUSD imploded, the US dollar rose. I expect the same result this time because markets are set up for a turn. The results could temper the volatility of the move, but there will be a major trend change, one way or the other.

If Trump wins, I would expect a more dramatic reversal, and particularly because we have lots of ending diagonals in place in the US indices (which by their definition, result in dramatic turns) from pre-defined maximum levels.

The question is going to be one of timing, I think. I don’t know whether the turn will coincide with the determination of the final result, or the fact that the election is over (buy the rumour, sell the news). The result, of course, could be contested and this may push back the final announcement. The other issue is the problem of counting the mail-in ballots, which could take days, or longer. How important these will be may be weighted by the apparent magnitude of the vote in either direction.

It’s going to be an interesting period, from the day of the election, through to the final tally and announcement, along with the reaction in the streets. I expect some level of violence but have no idea how widespread it will be. Eventually, the behind the scenes “wars” will erupt into a civil war in the US (and in other countries across the globe.)

There is more and more information coming out daily about the Biden scandal, but it’s unclear at the moment how much of it is “getting through” to the public.

There are other influences out there, of course, one of them being the congressional hearings involving the three tech giants on October 28, with the bubbling anti-trust suits in various stages of deliverability. Some suits, of course, have already been filed. I expect to see a flood of them before this is all over.

“May you always live in interesting times.” — Anonymous

___________________________

AAPL — This Weekend

Above is hourly chart of AAPL showing us the setup at the end of the day on Friday.

Last weekend, I was looking for more weakness to give us a larger fourth wave of the third, and it looks like we’re there … at a bottom. It’s a good time to go long.

There should be another fourth wave but I don’t expect it to be very deep. Usually in a fifth wave at the top of a long, bullish rally, the wave that’s the deep one tends to be the fourth wave of the third.

Then you get a wave up to finish the third wave, then a smaller fourth wave, and finally, a fifth wave up to the top.

I’m not sure of the measurements a the moment. but the horizontal lines marking possible inflection points shouldn’t be far off..

IWM (Russell 2000)— This Weekend

Above is the 1 hour chart of IWM (the Russell 2000) showing us the fifth wave up before a large trend change to the downside.

Note that this extraordinary bullish fifth wave up is missing a valid second wave, similar to what we saw in SPX. However, it’s not in a similar ending diagonal. It looks like we’ll complete a motive set of five wave up to a final high.

Currently, we seem to be starting the fifth wave of the third wave. Wave iv wasn’t very deep; I expected a more bearish retrace. Note that wave 4 at 156.32 may be out of place, in terms of the price. If we see a third wave complete up around 172, then the fourth wave may just come down to around 162.

I’m not 100%  sure of the measurements here at the present time. Once we get the balance of the third wave in place, we should get more clarity. It’s up from here (other than the expected fourth wave).

I believe the final target is going to be up in the 176 area.

NYSE – Ending Diagonal

Above is 2 hour chart of NYSE showing us a very large ending diagonal.

The entire wave up from March is corrective, telling us it much completely retrace to the bottom.

All the waves within the ending diagonal are also corrective. We’re currently in the beginning stages of the C wave of the fifth wave of the ending diagonal. I’m expecting an all time new high around the 13,500 level.

DOW – Ending Diagonal

Above is 4 hour chart of the DOW showing us the partially formed ending diagonal.

The is a more textbook version of an ending diagonal, particularly in terms of the third wave, which I like to see as a clear ABC wave. My comments in general here match that of the NYSE and SP500.

Know the Past. See the Future

_______________________

Free Webinar Playback:  Elliott Wave Basics

If you’re new to the Elliott Wave Principle, or even fairly comfortable with it, this webinar will give you a solid introduction and comprehensive understanding of the difference between trending and counter-trend waves, the various patterns for both types of wave patterns, and a good overview of how fibonacci ratios determine trade targets.

Video Playback (Click here)

This is link to the YouTube playback video, allowing you to review, stop and start, etc.

____________________________

Want some truth?

My new site now has several extensive newsletters in place. Videos now explain the banking system and deflation, and I’ve provided lists of what to do and what the start collecting in  preparation for the eventual downturn, which will last for decades. The focus of my new site is now to retain your wealth, plan for deflationary times, and stay healthy in the process. I’m also debunk a lot of the propaganda out there. It’s important to know what’s REALLY happening in the world today. This has all been predicted and we know how it’s going to play out. Getting to the real truth, based on history, is what I do, inside the market and out.

To sign up, visit my new site here.

All the Same Market.

I’ve been mentioning for months now that the entire market is moving as one entity, the “all the same market” scenario, a phrase that Robert Prechter coined many years ago, when he projected the upcoming crash.

We’re in the midst of deleveraging the enormous debt around the world. Central banks are losing the control they had and we’re slowly sinking into deflation world-wide, with Europe in the lead.

The US dollar is fully in charge of both the equities and currencies markets. They’re all moving in tandem, as I’ve been saying since September of 2017. Over the past three years, their movements have been moving closer and closer together and one, and now they’re in lock-step, with the major turns happening at about the same time.

it’s challenging because often times currency pairs are waiting for equities to turn, and other times, it’s the opposite. The other frustrating thing is that in between the major turns, there are no major trades; they’re all, for the most part day-trades. That’s certainly the case in corrections, where you very often have several possible targets for the end of the correction.

We’re now close to a turn in the US indices, currency pairs, oil, and even gold. Elliott wave does not have a reliable timing aspect, but it looks like we should see a top very soon.

_________________________________

Couldn’t be happier … KK 2

Couldn’t be happier …

The analysis and insight you provide is simply amazing!  I’ve been trading the futures and equity markets for well over thirty years and usually average around 5% monthly.  Since joining your Traders Gold Service two months ago, that number has better than doubled.  I couldn’t be happier.—KK

the real deal SM 2

The real deal …

‘Educational, insightful and thorough market analysis for all levels of traders. It’s Elliott Wave at its best….Peter Temple is the real deal’ —SM

Rise above the rest … SM 2

Rise above the rest …

I have only ever met a few people who, in their chosen fields (astrology, medicine, music, martial arts, technical analysis), rise above all the rest and you are one of them…you have ‘the gift’…and that’s why I’m a Trader’s Gold member. —SM

The best of them JL 2

The best of them …

Last couple of years, I subscribed to several ‘market traders’. You are by far the best of them and the personal contact is awesome. Daily and daily updates are very well written! Besides your expertise in EW, I also like your cycles analysis. Best investment I ever made! —JL

Tops in your field DZ 2

Tops in your field …

You are tops in your field.  Tried to follow Elliot Wave international for years.  They were always behind the market.  After discovering you, I perceive that you are an expert in reading the waves, which puts you way ahead of the rest of your peers. And you can read the Waves like you are reading tomorrow’s financial section.  I pray you stay healthy.  —DZ

A true expert in Elliott Wave FL 2

A true expert in Elliott Wave …

You are a true expert in EW analysis. What you provide is not available anywhere and is priceless. Subscription on your services is the best thing I have ever done. Many thanks for your effort to make me a better investor. I now have more trust in my investment decisions. I hope you will continue the excellent work! —FL

Get an upper hand … JC 2

Get an upper hand in trading …

Seeing all the different currency pairs and the wave structures and hearing you explain why this has to do that on a nightly bases gives one a upper hand when trading. Elliott Wave applies to all stock and indices and can be applied to any candlestick chart.

If someone ask what you want for Christmas – Tell them a membership to Peter’s “Traders Gold!”—JC

Have not had a losing week RW 2

Have not had a losing week …

I have been with Peter almost a year. The only thing that matters is have I made money with his service. I think I have finally turned the corner using Peter’s EW. I have not had a losing week in the last 5 months. Thanks Peter, for your amazing amount of hard work. —RW

US Market Snapshot (based on end-of-week wave structure)

This chart is posted to provide a prediction of future market direction. DO NOT trade based upon the information presented here (certainly NOT from a daily chart).

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

ES, the SP500, and DAX are all tracing out ending expanding diagonals. You can see regular ending diagonal patterns in the DOW and NYSE.

We're currently in the C wave up of the 5th wave of the ending expanding diagonal. I'm projecting a max target around the 3800 level. It will result in a dramatic turn and a trend change which will take up below the March low.

Almost all the currency pairs I cover are in possible broadening top (except USDJPY), as is oil, and DXY.  So, we have ending patterns almost right across the board. Now, it's only a matter of time. The US market needs one more high.

___________________________

Summary: It's an exhausted market getting close to a top, which I now think will coincide with the US election.

The bigger picture is that the SP500 appears to be in an ending expanding diagonal.  Other US market indices have similar patterns. Diagonals are ending patterns and warn of an impending, dramatic trend change after they're complete. This puts us in the final stages of this rally up from March of this year.

The resulting trend change will target an area under 2100 in SPX, and will likely be a combination pattern and, as such, may contain zigzags, flats, and possibly a triangle or ending diagonal at the bottom. However, I'm leaning towards a series of zigzags, which are corrective waves, and will likely come down fast.

Once we've completed the fourth wave down, we'll have a long climb to a final slight new high in a fifth wave of this 500 year cycle top.

______________________________________

Know the Past. See the Future