World Cycles Institute

Underlying Market Weakness

The Uphill Battle Continues in SPX

For three weeks, we’ve watched the D wave of the contracting triangle in ES and SPX try to top. We’re very close to turn and Monday might just be the day. Good riddance to this wave!

With almost every up and down move in the past three weeks in ES, alternate measurements keep targeting the 2750 area. This has been the ultimate target right from the start. This action tells me we have an extremely weak market that is struggling to get to the target.

As a result, once we see the turn down into the E wave of the triangle in ES/SPX, the drop is likely to be sharp. However, the E wave has to be in three waves, so we’ll trace out an ABC wave to below 2600.

US Index Review

Above is the two hour chart of the NYSE. This is the mother of all indices, and if you have any doubts about where we are, just take a look here. It doesn’t have the typical “animal spirits” attached to it (as it’s not traded directly) and comprises all the other traded indices (SP500, DOW, RUT, RUA, etc.).

We’re in a fourth wave contracting triangle, currently in the E wave, with one more leg down to go (a ‘c’ wave). The SP500 is at the top of the D wave, attempting to reach it’s target, but the weakness has kept it from achieving its goal. When it does, expect it to drop sharply into its E wave down.

Above is the two hour chart of the Russell 2000 (RUT), showing the ending diagonal in play. In the Elliott Wave Principle (Frost & Prechter), the lump ending diagonals into the motive wave section of the book, but it’s really a corrective pattern.

The pattern has overlapping waves; it’s too weak to rally in a clean third wave. The waves are really collapsing on each other, due to the inherent weakness. You’ll find that pattern at the ends of trends, either corrective, or motive.

The ending diagonal will have a large fourth wave down to the lower trendline and then and final fifth wave up to a new high and I would expect a throw-over (a 5th wave that extends slightly beyong the upper trendline. When it does so, it will mark the end of the five hundred year trend that I’ve written about extensively here.


The Ultimate Crescendo

Almost two years ago now, I posted a video illustrating the fact the all the major asset classes were beginning to move closer and closer together in a sort of parade to the top. It’s exactly what’s happened, but we’re not quite complete yet, of course.

While the US indices head down from the top of the D wave, I don’t expect a lot of movement in the USD currency pairs. They’re finishing up a corrective move down and are more or less waiting to bottom with the E leg of the contracting triangle in the US indices. The should enter the 5th and final wave up together.

What I see is everything moving (or sitting, waiting) to get into position for the final wave up — the 5th wave in the US indices that will rally from the bottom of the E leg of the triangle up to a new high. It has quite a distance to go.

While that final 5th wave in the US indices rallies, we should see rallies in EUR, GBP, AUD, and CAD (CAD will move in the opposite direction). Oil will likely also rally in what looks like an ending diagonal pattern playing out. Gold and silver should drop to their targets while the 5th wave plays out.

As I’ve been saying for the past couple of years, everything will top at the same time, but to do so, they all have to finish their final waves within Elliott wave rules.

After they all top, they will all move down together in what’s going to be the show of a lifetime. The drop in the eventual third wave (likely this fall) will be labelled “the crash” and it’s likely to be breathtaking in it severity.

But, they all have to reach their long term targets together.

Elliott Wave Basics

There are two types of Elliott wave patterns:

  • Motive (or impulsive waves) which are “trend” waves.
  • Corrective waves, which are “counter trend” waves.

Motive waves contain five distinct waves that move the market forward in a trend. Counter trend waves are in 3 waves and simply correct the trend. These patterns move at what we call multiple degrees of trend (they are fractal, meaning there are smaller series of waves that move in the same patterns within the larger patterns). The keys to analyzing Elliott waves is being able to recognize the patterns and the degree of trend that you’re working within.

The motive waves shown above are typical in terms of their look and length. Subwaves of motive waves measure out to specific lengths (fibonacci ratios) very accurately. Motive waves are the easiest waves to trade.

Waves 1, 3, and 5 of a motive wave pattern each contain 5 motive subwaves. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend waves and move in 3 waves.

Motive waves also travel in channels. The red channel above can be drawn from the apexes of wave 1 and 3 on one side and waves 2 and 4 of the other. The end of wave 5 typically meets the trend line on the wave 1 & 3 side before it reverses.

Countertrend waves move in 3 waves and always retrace. You’ll find much more about them in the countertrend section and the page on “The Right Look.”

To use Elliott wave analysis accurately, you must be able to recognize the difference between a trend wave (motive) and a countertrend wave (corrective). There’s very much more to proper Elliott wave analysis, but this gives you the basics.


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The Market This Week

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

We've now being going sideways at the top of the D leg of the triangle for three solid weeks. This signals to me that the market is exceptionally weak and having a tough time making it to the required target. I'm expecting one more wave up to complete the D leg. We're either targeting the previous high (2742) or 2750. There's a possibility we could reach as high as 2760.

Volume is exceptionally low (I've drawn a red circle in the volume indicator), which contributes to the volatility and lack of momentum at times.

Once we hit the target, though, we'll head down in the E leg. I thought the turn had to happen last week, because of the inherent weakness and the length of time going sideways. This market is extraordinary!

After the E wave down is complete, we'll take off again to the upside in a fifth wave, which will simply finish off the pattern. We'll get to a new high and probably more, but don't expect (as I've been saying for a very long time) a large fifth wave that travels any great distance. (I think 3000 is possible but at the high end of the probability spectrum)

Summary: We're not quite finished the D leg of the contracting triangle. Topping out will result in a high probability trade to the downside (the E leg of the triangle) Once E leg (down) is complete, expect a final fifth wave to a new high. That fifth wave up to a new high will be the end of the 500 year bull market.


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{ 66 comments… add one }
  • Ed June 3, 2018, 5:16 pm

    Peter T,

    Excellent update!

    • Peter Temple June 3, 2018, 5:22 pm

      Thanks! This weekend, you got a good slice of what my Trader’s Gold subscribers get on a daily basis, except for the hourly chart for ES, SPX and all the other assets classes I analyze on a daily basis.

  • Red Dog June 3, 2018, 6:24 pm

    Thanks Pete.

    Very interesting times

  • Joe Longwill June 3, 2018, 9:40 pm

    Thanks for pointing out the ending diagonal on the RUT .
    That is something I overlooked .
    The NYA though I have a slight concern with .
    It’s move from March to April was a 3 wave drop yet
    The B wave of that decline has not been overlapped .
    A detail perhaps that alters the wave count ?
    A potential triple 3 to the upside from the April lows ?
    Not something I have been thinking of yet I’ll open my eyes to it
    if it develops .
    Mars Uranus cycle has a minor high June 4 ( Monday )
    And a cycle low July 2…then the next cycle high is due
    In July 27-Aug 6 .yet the entire window runs from July 27 to Sept 9
    There are many dates between that range .
    I’m keeping my eyes open for what ever develops going forward
    Thank you : )

  • Verne Carty June 4, 2018, 11:46 am

    We have a break from a ridiculous rising wedge in ES after the initial impulse down.
    That’s all she wrote!
    Not too often you have potential ten baggers staring you in the face. Profitable Trading to All! 🙂

    • Peter Temple June 4, 2018, 12:54 pm

      Well, I don’t see any of that, as ES actually has a somewhat motive wave in 5 waves to the upside (and ending wave). What we’re hung up on is the fact that the Nasdaq/NDX/NQ group has decided all of a sudden that it wants so do a third wave of an ending diagonal. So they all have to get to a new high. We’re close but not there yet, and probably won’t get there today.

  • Liz H June 4, 2018, 12:53 pm

    ES almost to Peter’s 2750. Just a few points higher than May 14th high. And if it follows same fractal and if I recall correctly, Joe was talking about a June 6 low…

  • Verne Carty June 4, 2018, 3:00 pm

    If today’s gap remains open tomorrow I will concede the point. I see a busted wedge being tagged from the underside.
    It will not be the first time a violent decline has been forcibly arrested. The closing candles make that abundantly clear. I am holding 266 puts and 277 calls from credit spreads and expect better performance from the former.
    2750 seems formidable resitance and they are going to have to gap past it. Easier said than done imho.

  • Joe Longwill June 4, 2018, 11:34 pm

    Manmade Pollutants Now Blamed for Global Cooling
    Yeah you got that right ! Same story line just the opposite
    Outcome. They were right all along lol .
    I can’t paste the link for some reason yet you can Google
    Search the headline.

  • Joe Longwill June 4, 2018, 11:43 pm

    Brown writes, the two-year cooling trend continues. “At some point the news will leak out that all global warming since 1980 has been wiped out in two and a half years, and that record-setting events went unreported.”
    for some reason web links are not able to be posted .
    Might just be my Google browser ?
    That quote came from investors business daily
    Article headline :
    Don’t Tell Anyone, But We Just Had Two Years Of Record-Breaking Global Cooling

    • Peter Temple June 5, 2018, 6:35 am

      I’ll test web links this morning. It may be this GDPR issue again, but I think I know the culprit in that case, and I may have to roll back a plugin … again.

  • Joe Longwill June 4, 2018, 11:46 pm

    Bear market in world temperature

  • Verne Carty June 5, 2018, 7:04 am

    Retards! More like duplicitous! lol!

  • Verne Carty June 5, 2018, 9:45 am

    We may get a fill of the downside gap shortly. I will be adding to short positions if that happens.

  • Verne Carty June 5, 2018, 10:36 am

    A second bounce of 2739 in ES a bit of a cautionary note. I think we need to take out that low and see a few downside gaps in the indices filled….

  • Peter Temple June 5, 2018, 12:07 pm
  • John June 5, 2018, 12:25 pm

    We should top today or Wednesday, and bottom on Friday or Monday.

    • Peter G June 5, 2018, 4:16 pm

      John, I hope not to sound impertinent here, but “should do this” or “should do that” commentary is not very useful to this group of knowledgeable market veterans without any apparent reasons. Is that based on cycles? If so, please describe. If something else, please also describe. If we had seen you make ten or fifteen great market calls recently, we would certainly pay more attention, but without explanations, “should do this or that” commentary is not very useful. Please excuse my apparent scold, but I think most here will agree with me…

      • John June 7, 2018, 7:38 am

        I had that remark once more in the past.
        My work is based on Astrology, you are free to read it or ignore it.
        I never judge anyone here, that makes this blog unique.

        Good luck.

  • Verne Carty June 5, 2018, 5:32 pm

    I agree with Peter G. As one always willing to learn, I have repeatedly politely asked John to explain his market calls.
    Considering the kind of detail Peter T and others provide to explain their market perspective, these “naked” calls of John do leave a bit to be desired indeed.

  • Verne Carty June 5, 2018, 8:11 pm

    Virtually every analyst and his grandma is seeing completed triangles in a number of indices. While some are indeed at new ATH, there is something terribly anemic about most charts I have seen showing triangle breakouts. Nobody , excrpt Peters T and McHugh have a still to unfold E wave. It seems no one any longer pays any attention to COT.
    Commercials remain at record net short in E-mini contracts….over 500K! And that ain”t no bull…!

  • Joe Longwill June 5, 2018, 10:06 pm

    The only triangle I have seen complete was in the RUT
    The wave count off of wave E Peter T has commented on.
    The issues I’m having with this triangle is it’s not textbook.
    NYA as one example. Spx without a break below 2600 it’s not
    A textbook triangle. the regurgitation from everyone thinking
    The same thing only makes me question it even more.
    What ever this pattern morphs into I do not know but I’m
    Doubtful it’s actually a bullish triangle. A bearish triangle
    Still fits in my eyes as does this becoming a simple B wave.
    To each us own I guess.
    June 6-9 and July 2 the next swing periods .
    Option expiry typically is a high of sorts yet if everyone
    is thinking bullish then I’ll expect them to be disappointed.
    No bullish and no bearish , just sideways .
    COT record short ? Sounds like big money is hedged .
    I think the best trade will be based on global cooling.
    You can’t change or manipulate the temperature of the earth !

    • Peter Temple June 5, 2018, 10:43 pm

      What???? Where do you get this stuff from? Of course it’s textbook. It’s a run-of-the-mill, contracting triangle. Go read the Elliott Wave Principle. Study it. I get so tired of this stuff. THAT’S the textbook. You’ll find a picture of it in there. What’s 2600 got to do with anything, other than it will drop below that in the E wave?

  • Verne Carty June 6, 2018, 4:26 am

    The problem I have with some of the charts showing completed triangles for SPX and DJI is the sluggishness of price action following the supposed break-out. I am not speaking about this from an academic point of view but from my own experience in trading them in the past. The lateness of the bull run could be a factor, but it seems to me that what people are calling a reversal off a completed E wave lacks the kind of upward momentum that generally accompanies the completion of the pattern. I also realize that depending on where you draw the trend line it is possible to see a completed smaller triangle due to breach of the upper boundary but again the matter of upward momentum off a completed E wave remains.

  • Verne Carty June 6, 2018, 5:42 am

    Joe you are not the only one that has some doubt about the triangle call. If there is anything I have learned about this market the last few years is that it it is important to keep an open mind. We have all felt quite confident about something we were seeing in the market and made confident statements to that effect, only to have the market prove us wrong, so a bit of humility is certainly in order in these matters.
    A number of things should give us pause if we have a bullish outlook.
    DJT actually made a new CLOSING low below the Feb lows (DOW theory)
    DJI made a lower low intraday, but not a closing low, still an historically ominous sign.
    Commercial traders now hold a record net short position in E-mini futures contracts. Retail investors are even more invested long than hedge funds!
    Here is one ZH article that also has a bearish outlook.

  • Verne Carty June 6, 2018, 6:01 am

    Another thing I neglected to mention above is the long term trend-lines of some indices. Go take an look, for example. at SPX and see what has happened to the trendline since the 2009 lows.

  • Joe Longwill June 6, 2018, 12:03 pm

    This stock had an approximate decade long triangle
    Formation , look at monthly chart from 2003 to date .
    Upside target is in the 50’s from what is now 37 and change.
    I have been long the stock since 22 1/4 and have just held it
    Based on that triangle.
    A true triangle needs to have overlapping B waves within each leg.
    A b c ( A) a b c ( B ) a b c ( C ) etc…. Each of those minor b waves should be
    Overlapped . On the NYA the minor b wave high has not been overlapped.
    I have traded many triangles and I specifically watch for those overlaps .
    Without those overlaps it’s questionable to call it a triangle even though it’s shape
    Is that of a narrowing wedge.
    Look at the diagram , it’s a detail many overlook

  • Joe Longwill June 6, 2018, 12:22 pm

    ON semiconductor
    2007 to 2014 monthly a true triangle
    There are several examples I can note the minor b wave overlaps
    Unfortunately and I think it’s my phone browser I can’t
    Post a link of that .

  • Joe Longwill June 6, 2018, 12:26 pm
    The overlapping minor B waves can be seen .
    Not sure how I pulled off that link yet it’s there

  • Joe Longwill June 6, 2018, 12:31 pm
    Text book triangle , I went long at 9 bucks and still
    holding .
    The overlapping minor b waves to me matter

  • Verne Carty June 6, 2018, 12:37 pm

    Thanks for the link Joe. Great summary page.
    I am on the sidelines after exiting my short calls with close above 2750. Sold the remaining for a small loss on this big ramp up. Volume still looks a bit suspect to me but I have to concede RUT may be leading the way higher. You simply cannot argue with Mr. Market and right now he is clearly going higher. Gaps tend to be seen at the start, or at the end of extended moves and we now have quite a few to the upside. Price is what it is and it does not care very much that I have been bearish! 🙂

  • Verne Carty June 6, 2018, 1:07 pm

    Interesting chart. The steep angle of the break-out is quite typical. I don’t think I have ever seen price return after a break-out to violate the lower triangle boundary. Most interesting! I cannot argue with your conclusion though, and it highlights that just because we have never seen something happen does not mean it cannot!

  • Verne Carty June 6, 2018, 2:17 pm

    It is never easy to admit being wrong but it sure does look to me that DJI and SPX have indeed followed RUT in an upside break.
    I will be going long on the next pullback oppotunity. If this is the middle of a third wave I may not get a good entry. I am thankfully holding a few SPXL calls…up 2.5% today!

  • Bill rider June 6, 2018, 8:21 pm

    Peter T ,

    What are your thoughts, As per your weekend post it was not suppose to get over 2760 at most. How do you draw the lines now. Thanks

  • Joe Longwill June 6, 2018, 10:35 pm

    Verne and Peter G
    Thanks for the comments Verne
    Peter G
    Any thoughts on the next up coming July 13 solar eclipse ?
    July 13 solar July 27 lunar Aug 11 solar .
    To me it doesn’t fit the puetz theory yet I’ll note
    The new moon prior to the solar eclipse ideally would be a high
    If you look at 1987 or even back to early 2009 .
    So this June 6-9 date I have mentioned should include the new moon on June 13 ?
    I’ll need to look yet I’ll bet there is something to be learned from last year’s
    Set up . The Feb 15 2018 solar was a low I believe . Not sure how that ties
    To July 13 solar yet I guess we will see .
    I’m seeing June 15 now and July 2 .
    And August 11 solar does not fit in terms of a puetz window yet mars Uranus
    Turns down then . Sept 8-9 shows up using calendar research for the high
    Before a crash phase . Full moon following the solar won’t fit puetz in my eyes yet
    It’s worth digging into . I know you have argued with me on this before yet I’m not going
    To argue it . Just opening up a discussion because my other cycles point down from mid August .
    My next look will be when does mercury go retrograde the actual date of start and end
    And the start date plus 10.days and the end date plus 10 days. Puetz cycle failed in 1929 crash
    Yet mercury was retrograde I’m pretty sure back then .
    Digging through my research and fine tuning everything to grasp what is probable .
    June 15 July 2 then July 27-end of August .
    July 13 solar July 27 lunar Aug 11 solar .
    July 13 minus a month puts the June 13 new moon in the mix.
    It’s going to get interesting no doubt in my mind .
    I cannot say we are within trading days of entering a puetz crash window
    But we are with in trading days of the starting point of the set up .
    I’m not able to voice an opinion on direction just yet .
    A new moon high though is part of the equation ..
    Looking forward to being home late June 🙂

  • Joe Longwill June 6, 2018, 11:45 pm

    In 2018, Mercury will be only be retrograde during the date ranges of:
    March 23 to April 15
    July 26 to August 19 <——lunar eclipse on July 27 ( plus 10 days =Aug 5 th to Aug 29 )
    November 17 to December 6
    Adding 6 weeks from both the July 13 solar and Aug 11 solar eclipses should
    Be interesting . ( July 13 as an example points to the end of August which is also
    The 10 lag following the end of mercury retrograde )
    Aug 11 plus 6 weeks targets the end of Sept – early October .
    August 5 th becomes a pivotal day . ( it's the mid point of mercury retrograde cycle )
    Aug 3 is a Saturday and 3 rd qtr moon and Aug 11 a new moon solar eclipse .
    More to dig into before lining everything up

  • Verne Carty June 7, 2018, 5:18 am

    Most welcome Joe.
    My attempts to find and/ot understand consistent correlation between planetary and lunar dependent cycles has been spotty at best. I try to pay close attention to what others say about these things and catefully note the nature and timing of the predictions and frankly have found the correct calls statistically insignificant. While I may be missing something, in one sense the fact that we are seeing so many wrong calls in the matket should not surprise us.
    It is my contention that central bank driven markets can and do distort technical anslysis, and it is possible also cycle analysis.
    It seems to me if you make trading decisions on anything othet than real time observation of market price action you do do at your own peril, My own assumption about the resolution of the presumed triangle pattern was fully and firmly negated by price action yesterday, It was very interesting that the remarkable price ramp had no hint from futures.
    Central bank hegemony on display in spades…

  • Verne Carty June 7, 2018, 6:29 am

    I have always thought that triangles tended to be penultimate waves. Fourth waves for impulses, and b waves for corrective waves. The implication is that if the indices in triangles have indeed completed them, whether you saw the months long sideways movement as a b wave or a fourth wave, we have begun a final impulse up and are very likely still in wave one. If this is the case, analysts calling for a substantial market decline just ahead are wrong. If we are in a new five waves up, clearly that will not happen until the fifth wave is complete. The size and duration of the triangle suggests it migjht not ne brief.
    On the other hand, I am seeing steep momentum divergences at recent highs and an extremely low VIX reveals high complacency. This is what I mean by TA distortion. We have seen the market advance on declining volume for years.
    It is entirely possible that this market will continue highet in the face of TA indicators saying it should decline. Just thinking out loud. I am switching to bull put spreads on the next pullback. Above the 50 day argues for a bullish trend.

  • Peter G June 7, 2018, 10:42 am

    Here’s what I see.
    Upper channel was hit in midnight Globex trading and once again in today’s opening hour. How important? We will know in the fullness of time… 🙂
    As to eclipse, Joe, I have no strong opinions. It will not fall in the time windows that Puetz specified for a potential crash…

  • Joe Longwill June 7, 2018, 11:18 am

    From my point of view crash phases have specific windows in time.
    Those windows do not guarantee a market crash but if a crash is to
    Happen then it is ideal that it happens in that window.
    The decline into April 4 was 1 window .
    The next time frame begins in that August to Jan time frame .
    I can’t say it’s going to happen only the if we’re going to see a steep
    Decline then that’s the window of opurtunity .
    Trading specific time frames may sound futile yet it’s something
    I have focused on over the years . I look for specific set ups based
    On repeat patterns with in those specific time windows .
    To trade in such a manner requires ungodly patients yet it’s my speculative
    Money . When the trend is up everyone is a genius ( at least they think they are )
    When the shocks come to the downside those geniuses go quiet .
    With the long term bias generally up I focus more so on specific crash windows
    It does not always work but it’s what I do .
    I try not to over trade and I wait for the set ups using technical analysis and timing
    And the wave count.
    I’m thinking now those March highs need to be broken in what becomes a simple
    B wave . 25800 ish cash Dow for price as example yet still doubt we see new all time highs
    This year.
    My notes above were just me gathering info to get my head on straight as we get
    Get closer .
    A typical crash phase only lasts 39-41 trading days from the peak to the momentum low
    Yet the cycle lasts 50 trade days from peak to the end of the cycle .
    That is a tight window in time for the opurtunity of a large point move .
    Anyways that’s part of why I questioned the triangle and at this point
    My thoughts are it was not a triangle
    It’s a B wave or maybe an ending diagonal but no way a triangle formation .
    The market is always right !

  • Joe Longwill June 7, 2018, 11:23 am

    Specifically Aug Sept high , Oct – Jan low
    There may be 2 shorter term windows mixed into that Aug high to Jan low time frame
    Those details I’m working on sorting out .
    June 13-15 th is just 1 piece of the puzzle so I wait it out for another week

  • Joe Longwill June 7, 2018, 11:45 am

    Peter g
    Thank you for your comments

  • Verne Carty June 7, 2018, 12:36 pm

    Thanks Joe.
    I have to say over the last few years I have personally been really stymied as a lot of trading signals I use to use fairly effectively became practically useless. I would watch in amazement as time after time normally reliable reversal signals, including things like bearish engulfing candles, shooting stars, rock bottom VIX readings etc, would get violently negated with price powering on to new highs. As much as today is looking like a reversal, I refuse to trade it until downside gaps are filled and remain so.


  • Verne Carty June 7, 2018, 7:01 pm

    Banksters at work!
    Fasinating how they arrested, once again, an impulsive decline in NQ and forced price back inside the busted channel by the close. I expect prices to remain pinned into the close tomorrow based on the robust cash dump today. We may be seeing a small fourth wave…

  • Bill rider June 7, 2018, 9:02 pm

    Peter T,

    Are you still sticking with D wave not complete theory or is it morphing into something else. Please share your thought when you have time.

    • Peter Temple June 7, 2018, 9:31 pm

      Sorry, I’ve had no time over the past few days. We’re at the top of the D wave. The next big move is to the downside.

  • Verne Carty June 8, 2018, 6:05 am

    If that is the case I will probably get stopped out shortly lol!
    Based on what the RUT did I figured the other indices will follow. I set my dtop at 2750. If it goes below I will have been wromg…AGAIN….darned market!

  • Harvey Luft June 8, 2018, 7:48 am

    Peter T,
    Do you have a downside target for the E wave down?
    Thanks your insights are really invaluable.

    • Peter Temple June 8, 2018, 8:08 am

      Below 2600 in ES. I can’t get more accurate until there’s an A wave in place, and I don’t think we’re there yet.

  • Harvey Luft June 8, 2018, 10:58 am

    Thank You!!!!

  • Peter Temple June 8, 2018, 11:42 am

    I’ll be moving the site this weekend to its final resting place (alive, I hope) to attempt to clear up the comment email problems. It should be relatively seamless. The weekend update will likely be out Saturday morning.

    The Chart Show links have already been updated for June 13 (next week) so it’s OK to sign up early.

  • Peter Temple June 8, 2018, 11:43 am

    We’re not going to see a turnover in the US indices until Monday morning, I wouldn’t think.

  • Verne Carty June 8, 2018, 12:25 pm

    I agree. I think I will be holding long positions until we break 2750. It certainly does not look like that is going to happen today as the PPT is working overtime to keep prices afloat!

  • Verne Carty June 8, 2018, 12:58 pm

    I do think it is quite dangerous trying to predict when exactly this market is going to do what is going to do. We have already seen how it does not always abide by projected fib re-tracements and what I have found to be more helpful is observing how price is behaving around important resistance/support/round number pivots. There was a lot of bearish predictions this week but I was personally convinced once the market had cleared 2750 to the upside such calls would be incorrect until the market had broken back below it. If you look at how price has behaved since in cleared that level on a closing basis two days the level has not really been seriously challenged. I wish I knew more about lunar and astro cycles but unfortunately it seems as if just about every prediction I have seen based on such thing have of late been not very accurate. I do not think bearish trades are on order until we have a decisive break back below 2750 that is note arrested by central bank cash infusions during the cash session. Have a great weekend everyone!

    • Peter Temple June 8, 2018, 1:06 pm

      Not really. I cautioned about a double top for ES in my video last night. It hadn’t topped properly, so that was a big red flag. In EW, you just have to count waves and watch the rather obvious signals from currencies. So far, so good.

  • Joe Longwill June 9, 2018, 12:41 am

    The Bradley turn date of June 9 is Saturday
    The new moon on Wednesday .
    The set up begins next week as far as I’m concerned .
    Option expiry a wild card of sorts .
    2800 ish spx and 25800 ish cash Dow important levels
    To keep an eye on.
    A poke above the March highs kills the triangle
    And argues for a simple B wave
    Enjoy your weekend

  • Verne Carty June 9, 2018, 8:34 am

    According to those who follow lunar cycles, new moons are times of market strength. Near term moving avrerages have turned upwards and it could be the Bradley date signals the end of the holding pattern. I am long above 2750 with the target Joe mentioned of 2800. A close below 2750 and I am stopped out. Bears are not going to like this but series gaps tend to take place at the start, and at the end of extended bull runs. Considering how long we have been trading essentially sideways, it is possible the recent series of gaps up open could mean we go a lot higher.
    Of course this would imply negation of the triangle at some point since they are penultimate waves.
    At any rate, 2750 is my line in the sand, and I take profits at 2800, if we get there, then re-evaluate,
    Thanks for the comments Joe and Peter.

  • Verne Carty June 9, 2018, 8:50 am

    BTW Joe, I think it is possible to see an unfolding c up for a larger B wave you suggested. If so, the C wave down ahead would correspond with Peter’s expected E down but be a lot deeper as triangle E waves often end above the A/C trendline. We should know which soon!
    I do so apprecite it when people who know what they are talking about, like you and Peter, chime in. Thanks again.

  • Joe Longwill June 9, 2018, 10:07 am

    1999 in retrospect to Chris Carolan and puetz and moons

This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Elliott Wave Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic. Posting trade specifics does NOT serve an educational purpose, is stongly discouraged, and such comments may be removed.

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