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The Next Prophet?

The cycles of history point to so many similarities in climate, health, societal change, and religion, among other characteristics of our experience on this planet. One of them that’s striking is the appearance of prophets at two of these cycle highs.

A major cycle is the 172 year cycle that I’ve written about many times before. Dr. Raymond Wheeler identified the 170 year cycle in his work and in a simplified cycle clock, The Drought Clock. Stephen Puetz mathematically adjusted the cycle to 172 years in his ground-breaking book, The Unified Cycle Theory. While this cycle peak marks an economic high and subsequent crash, it’s also parallels the Uranus-Neptune conjunction of 171.4 years. The turns are supported by events throughout history within mathematical probabilities that make their reality indisputable.

In fact, for the last three conjunctions, we experienced a major market sell-off fourteen years after the conjunctive event.

Uranus Neptune Conjunctions

Conjunction +14 yrs. Event
1650 1663 the largest depression in England—1663, followed by Blubonic Plague (1664) and Fire of London (1665)
1821 1835 start of the largest depression in US history to that date (The panic of 1937 was the crash)
1993 2007 the Great Recession—central banks have managed to keep the market up through most of 2016

Major cycles are harmonic (X3) and both Puetz and Wheeler identified the 515 year cycle (171.4 X 3) as the civilization cycle. Two of the theoretical peaks were the years 118 AD and 633 AD. Each of these dates marked the appearance of prophets and the beginning, or resurgence of religions (Jesus and Muhammed).

The chart below (click to enlarge) is from the work of Dr. Wheeler and shows the temperature peaks of both eras and the relative events.

muhammed-and-chist-rev

The larger chart covers the years ~430 – 720 AD, which was a major warm temperature top (the solid black line on both charts shows the relative temperature). You’ll find a “big picture climate chart” spanning 3000 years on the blog post entititled “Global Cooling.

The inset denotes the height of the Roman Empire (the chart cover the years ~100 BC – 135 AD). I’ve written about this before in a post about the correlation of climate to the demise of the Empire.

Jesus and the end of the Roman Empire

The SP (Stephen Puetz “theoretical cycle top”) for the Roman Empire was 118 AD (the 515 year civilization peak cycle), which began the demise of the Roman Empire over a period of several hundred years. Jesus Christ was alive from 4 BC through 30 AD, just as the temperature cooled. He appeared, as did Muhammed, just before the cycle peak. As I’ve written before, this forecast civil wars, a period of social revolution, and political turmoil.

Muhammed and the Peak of the First Byzantium Empire

A similar pattern exerted itself at the cycle top of the 600 AD period (approximately 500 years later). After 395 AD, the Roman Empire split it two, the eastern half survived and historians refer to it as the Byzantine Empire. Under Justinian (527-565) the empire regained some strength. You can see on the larger chart that the temperature rose at that time (after decades of colder, dryer climate). Justinian grew the empire to include North Africa, Italy, Sicily, Sardinia and parts of Spain.

However, after the Stephen Puetz theoretical peak (633 AD), climate turned colder and dryer and this marked the start of the gradual upheaval of the empire. Only a year later, Byzantium started to lose a large portion of its territory to the Arabs. The Byzantium Empire was later revived in the next 515 year cycle, which peaked in the year 1148.

Similar to the top of the Roman Empire, which coincided with the theoretical peak and the coming of Christ, Muhammed  (570-632 AD) appeared just before the theoretical top of this 515 year cycle. He is widely regarded as the founder of Islam by non-Muslims. He is known as the “Holy Prophet” to Muslims, almost all of whom consider him to be the last prophet sent by God to mankind to restore Islam.

However, within ten years of his death in 632, which also marked the cycle peak, Ridda Wars, or the Wars of Apostasy ” broke out, and the Rashidun Caliphate was established. The peak led to a period of intrigue and assassinations of its leaders and civil wars.

The 515 year cycle tops always herald in a demise of the current civilization, and a major social and religious upheaval. It also led to major migrations in both cases. Prophets also arose to prominence and led to a greater reliance of religion and religious teachings.

We’re also reaching the peak of a civilization cycle. The 172 cycle (and top of the climate cycle) was in 2007 (which was 14 years after the Uranus/Neptune conjunction). The peak of the civilization cycle in is 2178 (another 172 years cycle from 2007). Are we expecting a prophet to appear on the horizon? The timing is right and we certainly need one, based on the state of the world.

monckton-jan-2014-2

Above is a chart of recent temperature patterns over the past twenty-five years or so (produced by Christopher Monckton). The temperature peak was in 1998 (predicted by Dr. Wheeler in his Drought Clock). Pay particular note to the drop in temperature in the year 2007. It aligned with the huge drop in what we now refer to as “The Great Recession.”

You’ll also find a large temperature drop in the year 1929, illustrated in my video, “Don’t Like the Climate? Wait a Cycle!” which shows how the DOW rises and fall with temperature.

I expect to see a very cold winter coming up this year as the US market finally tops and heads down in what we may end up calling “The Greater Depression.”

The short story is that we’ve passed the 172 peak in 2007. Central banks have managed to keep the stock market up through this year through their policies, which have been described as the biggest financial “experiment” in history, by none other than Lord Rothschild himself.

The Market this Weekend

There isn’t all that much new in the markets. I’ve been predicting the continuation of the fourth wave of the ending diagonal for several weeks now. I’m still looking for a new low.

es-12-16-daily-11_16_2015-9_22_2016-copy

Above is the daily chart of ES (emini SPX futures). On Friday, September 23, we completed the b wave of the 4th wave of the ending diagonal (ending diagonal labeling is in red). Friday, Sept. 23 was an Andy Pancholi turn date for the SP500. The EURUSD peaked the day before on another Pancholi turn date.

I expect a gradual drop to below the 2100 area before a turn up in the final wave of the pattern. Watch for a double top, though, before that happens.

Wave (red) 2 of the ending diagonal was a long time finding a bottom and the (red) 4th wave needs to create some timing symmetry with the second wave, so the extended time involved in reaching its target is to be expected.

Here’s why this final pattern has to be an ending diagonal (and why I predicted it months ago):

  • the final wave of a sequence has to be in 5 waves, with one exception—an ending diagonal, which is part of a 3 wave pattern
  • the wave up so far (from Feb. 11 to ~ April 20) is in three waves because:
    • the small “second wave” (black B) did not retrace 62%, which is a requirement of a motive wave in 5, so for that reason, it must be considered a B wave
    • the 5th wave of the black 5 wave sequence is in 3 waves, which a requirement of a final motive wave is that all the subwaves are also motive
    • the black third wave does not have a full subset of five waves, which is required for it to be a  motive wave
    • for all the above reasons, the first sequence up from Feb. 11 is a zigzag.

Summary: This is the final fourth wave dip before the “blow-off” fifth wave and the top of the largest bubble in history. I expect a little more downside before we turn up again to head for a new all time high.

___________________________

Introducing: The Chart Show
Thursday, September 29.

chart-showThe Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis for the US market, gold, silver, oil, and major USD currency pairs.

Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. You’ll also get Andy Pancholi turn dates for the balance of the current month. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.

All registrants will receive the video playback of the webinar, so even if you miss it, you’ll be sent the full video replay within about an hour of its conclusion. For more information and to sign up, click here.

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{ 130 comments… add one }
  • luri September 30, 2016, 12:59 pm

    Andre,

    my good man – your vibrations are indeed well in tuned, and as i said before your perceptions are insightful and relevant. As you indicated to me yesterday, high for today [tidal inversions] [good call], low into the weekend, and a potential ‘pump’ into and on 10/3 or as you said ” 115 td top 10/3.”. what do you mean by a 115 td top? i am seeing the 8/15 top holding – which is why i ask for the clarifications? And as always – it is ‘their’ market – rigged as it is – and they will do with it as they see fit, so all things are possible here…..

    • andré September 30, 2016, 1:42 pm

      Luri,

      10/3 is 115 td from to 4/20 high. A few weeks ago I explained about the 3 td structure in high low timing and how we can measure momentum with this. 115 td should be considered overbought so a cit is imminent.

      Cheers,
      André

      • Chris September 30, 2016, 1:50 pm

        Or 116TD, which is 365 / 3.14 (Pi)

      • Bret September 30, 2016, 3:06 pm

        CIT?

        • Peter Temple September 30, 2016, 3:20 pm

          Bret,
          Yeah, it makes me absolutely crazy when they do that and I’ve asked them not to, to no avail. (using abbreviations that aren’t necessarily in common use and then not explaining them). CIT is usually “change in trend,” but it’s not something I’ve ever used.

          • Bret September 30, 2016, 3:33 pm

            Thanks Peter!

          • Peter Temple October 1, 2016, 7:39 am

            🙂

        • Chris September 30, 2016, 7:04 pm

          TD means trading days. CD means calendar days. 116 works on both.
          And 3.1416 is Pi.
          365 is days in a year.
          You will need to satify yourself of its accuracy.

  • Joe September 30, 2016, 3:31 pm

    Purvez
    my thoughts are at times the broker actually uses the money
    on deposit in the ” money market side of the account ”
    i have seen other discrepancies in the past .
    i found it odd that for me it showed up on a day
    that the market was panicking do to the rumors about
    a possible bank run on duetsche bank.
    if they can uses money on deposits as collateral then
    i could understand that ” error”
    otherwise ill say , i have made only a few times as many
    as 9 day trades in a single day and that reg t call has not showed up .
    my account is double that size now and i still trade with the same
    methods . i don’t margin myself to the hilt ever .
    i learned that the hard way and it was 4 days of trading hell
    where i turned a 6500 profit into a 500 dollar loss .
    that 500 dollar loss was a blessing as it could have been
    80 times worse ( no typo )
    what i did was i had a call spread on 4 silver contracts back in the early
    1990’s , i covered the long calls and thought ill hold the short calls
    and cover by the close ( i was a genius i thought , joking ) well
    i called the broker to close the short calls ( 20,000 silver ) and was told
    the market closed 3 minutes ago . that night the news was out that
    warren buffet had cornered the silver market and i was 15,000 in the negative
    on the open so i started trading silver futures to hedge the losses which
    at one point put me 40,000 in the negative on those short calls.
    long story short , had i not been able to trade futures live i would have
    been screwed and its a lesson learned i will never forget .
    i have not done a put or call spread ever since ,
    rule of thumb is never use a market order on any new york market .
    its different now with electronic trading yet back then the floor brokers
    would screw you every time you let them .
    for another day , i was once told i needed to deliver 2 railroad cars
    of sugar . the mistake was not paying attention to first notice day.
    the cost of the error was 350 ( sugar was cheap then ) the broker
    split it with me , 175 bucks for being stupid .
    over margin will kill you in the end .
    Joe

  • andré October 1, 2016, 2:01 am

    I get the message. Won’t happen again. Ever.

    Best of luck to all of you.

    • nicola2910 October 1, 2016, 6:06 am

      Andre , will you comment this week end ? .. nick

      • Andre October 1, 2016, 6:10 am

        Nicola2910,

        I am afraid I won’t.

        • Carmen October 1, 2016, 9:10 am

          Please continue with your thoughts Andre, it means a lot to me that I can read your comments!

        • Jas October 1, 2016, 4:49 pm

          Andre, many people left messages to you and want you to come back or let us know where we can find you.

    • luri October 1, 2016, 1:24 pm

      andre,

      buddy – what happened? who gave you a negative response message? whoever commented to you was speaking from a ‘dark’ place. this is very unfortunate.

      feel free to email directly “A’ – luri@protonmail.com. Your market perceptions are an important addition to many, many of us here. Boy, i wish i knew what happened!

  • Rose October 1, 2016, 9:00 am

    Andre i look forward for comnents. Dont understand the message ? Dont understand why on each board people are sensitive as everyone has opionion or analysis diff from others

  • Ed October 1, 2016, 9:08 am

    Andre’,

    I hope you will decide to continue to laying out your ideas on the path into
    March 2017! Don’t feel any pressure but you have quite a few interested parties
    Who frequent this site! I am looking forward to Monday October 3, 2016.

  • Peter George October 1, 2016, 11:19 am

    Through 2015, the all-time high close on S&P Composite was registered on 5-21-15. On a closing price chart, moving back 115 trading days takes you to 12-4-14, one trading day away from an important high close. Now move forward 115 t-days from 5-21-15 all-time high. Here are the next two resolutions of the cyclic pattern: 11-3-15…Bull’s-eye closing price high!…4-20-16…Bull’s-eye closing price high Next resolution due 10-3-16, this coming Monday! These patterns do not usually last for more than three or four resolutions, but can be very helpful while they last. Probably a better rule is they last until you discover them 🙂 …

    • Peter George October 1, 2016, 6:23 pm

      My apologies for apparently repeating the 115 td cycle that Andre had mentioned earlier above. I had not read his posts. I did amplify somewhat for those of you who had not checked it and gave a little history on it, not the least of which was the all-time high close in 2015. On the NY Composite Index, by the way, that high remains the all-time high and in my estimation stands a decent chance of marking the high of the next decade or longer. If not, any break above should be only marginal…

      • Jas October 1, 2016, 7:36 pm

        Peter George, thank you for your post. What does it mean by “any break above should be marginal?” Do you mean the market will continue to go high?

        • Peter George October 2, 2016, 12:50 am

          It simply means, Jas, that I do not believe the NY Composite will go above its high established in May 2015, but if it does, I believe it will do so only by a small amount…

          • Jas October 2, 2016, 4:52 am

            Thank you!

  • rose October 1, 2016, 11:20 am

    Andre don’t understand ‘I get the message’ part. I don’t think it was directed towards anyone. this is the way I take it. everyone’s intake is valuable and may be different from each other

  • Vetri October 1, 2016, 12:57 pm

    Dear Andy,

    Please continue to post your views. There are so many viewers like me eagerly awaiting for your great analysis.
    Please come with your WOW thoughts and keep rocking everyone.

    Thanks, Vetri

  • Valley October 1, 2016, 2:15 pm

    PALS this week:
    Tides falling (bear)
    Post NM (bear)
    Post lunar equator cross to South (bear)
    First four days October seasonals (bull)
    Apogee week (bear)
    Post Jupiter conjunction period (3 weeks) bear
    Summary: Bearish week except for seasonals, will be short with small size.

  • nicola2910 October 1, 2016, 2:16 pm

    Andre , please reconsider, if not please tell us there we can find you… what a loss….

  • nicola2910 October 1, 2016, 2:26 pm

    Peter !! Please try to get him back……Nick

    • Peter Temple October 1, 2016, 8:43 pm

      Nick,
      Unfortunately, I’m not André’s keeper. André will do what André decides to do. He pretty well has free reign here, so I have no idea why he’d want to give that up.
      When I decided to continue this free blog it was on the condition that I not be too much involved. I simply don’t have the time to run after people.

      I police it to the extent that I don’t allow comments with personal attacks and like for people to respect the audience. And I’ll answer questions, comments, where and when I can. I don’t mind getting pulled back in on occasion but I have to limit myself. Sorry.

  • nicola2910 October 1, 2016, 2:28 pm

    Peter!! , please try to get him to return nick

  • Joe October 1, 2016, 7:39 pm

    the last time i saw a 118 trade cycle it was low to lows yet andre
    you are onto to something i overlooked .
    ill dig into it and i do respect your posts .
    the cycle broke down into 59 day cycles as well as 118 and 236 trade days
    and it lasted almost 3 years .
    if andre is onto something with the 115 trade day cycle highs
    it may continue for a while .
    thank you for your posts they are helpful 🙂
    Joe

  • Joe October 1, 2016, 7:40 pm

    mercury has a 115 calendar day cycle
    Joe

  • Peter Temple October 1, 2016, 8:35 pm
  • Harvey October 2, 2016, 9:02 am

    Andre,
    Like everyone else I am sorry that you have decided not to comment any longer on this blog. Earlier I told you no to give in to other’s thoughts and to continue with your good work. And fine work it is. We all appreciate it and you for the effort you are putting in to make it available not only for yourself but for us too.
    I am asking you to reconsider because so many of us need to know your unique thoughts which frankly I find quite refreshing. We all admire your work and are flattered you would share it with us. With that said I am asking you to reconsider your decision which I know was born out of misconception on your part , because anyone would surely admire you for the work you do , and come back and comment on this board.
    Harvey

I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. However, due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer comments.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic.

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