The “Man” that Affects Us Every Day
This Sunday (August 26) marks another full Moon event. Below is an updated version of a chart of the SP500 since the beginning of the year showing every full Moon since that time and the effect on the stock market. Each one has resulted in the turn (to the upside in every case).
Could this full Moon trigger a turn to the downside?
The market is certainly ready, and we’re in the final wave subwave (5th of the 5th) of the large B wave up since April of this year (also a full Moon turn).
The chart above is a 4 hour chart of the SP500 from just before the beginning of the 2018 year. The green arrows with an ‘F’ below them show full Moon events, while the blue arrows are eclipses.
The Moon and Us
Every large body in the Universe gives off electromagnetic waves. That includes the moon, and more particularly, the Sun and planets in our Solar System.
Ever heard of the crazies coming out with the full moon. It’s real. You just have to ask a nurse or a cop. Or ask this guy.
At the University of Miami, psychologist Arnold L. Lieber did a study over 15 years with almost 2000 murders. As the new or full moon approached, the murder rate rose sharply … for the entire fifteen years.
I would suggest we’re affected because our brains are electrical – they’re energy fields—there’s no question about that. We get affected by even the smallest of electrical fields.
Circadian Rhythms are the rhythms we use to set our body clock. When we get and up go to bed. You might think it’s all dependent upon when the sun comes up.
Rutger Wever, a German scientist did experiments over a 25 year period in a couple of underground bunkers. This is the actual bunker from the outside … and here’s the inside … homey. My video on his work is here.
He kept one bunker free of changes in outside light, temperature, sound, etc. but not electromagnetic fields. The second bunker was the same except that he blocked out electromagnetic fields.
In the first bunker, the subjects became a bit unsychronized, but gradually developed their own rhythm close to twenty five hours — that’s one lunar orbit.
However, the people in the completely shielded room became completely desynchronized. They developed rhythms of varying lengths – usually about a 36 hour day and a twelve hour night.
So, we’re effected psychologically by electromagnetic fields, and we appear to be regulated by the Moon, not the Sun.
The Sun has its own rhythm. Every 11.2 years, it reaches its solar maximum, when it throws off huge solar flares. Here’s a picture of what they’re like—you can see how tiny the Earth is as they throw out these flares. They can disrupt electrical grids, radio and television signals, cause plane crashes, and wreak general havoc. And they throw off huge electromagnetic waves.
Here’s a chart showing the solar maximum and the extraordinary events that happen when we get solar spikes.
In the 1920s, a Russian scientist named Alexander Chizhevsky named the effect of sunspot maximums on humans as “the mass excitability factor.”
Now … there’s a reason history repeats itself. Humans around the globe are influenced by electromagnetic waves. I’ve talked only about the Sun and Moon, but there are eight planets in our solar system. They all throw out electromagnetic waves and that’s why history never repeats the same way twice.
So next time there’s a full moon or you think about what’s going on in the world, think about how we’re influenced as humans all at the same time around the world by forces beyond our control.
And think about what’s going on in the world in general: migrations, corruption, extreme climate, authoritarianism, and a coming financial collapse and social revolution. The same traits have appeared every 172 years throughout history. 171.4 years just happens to be when Neptune and Uranus conjunct. Typically, fourteen years after the actual conjunction, we experience a financial collapse.
That collapse also usually happens when the climate turns colder and drier (as it’s doing now).
At the very least, food for thought.
Elliott Wave Basics
There are two types of Elliott wave patterns:
- Motive (or impulsive waves) which are “trend” waves.
- Corrective waves, which are “counter trend” waves.
Motive waves contain five distinct waves that move the market forward in a trend. Counter trend waves are in 3 waves and simply correct the trend.
All these patterns move at what we call multiple degrees of trend (in other words, the market is fractal, meaning there are smaller series of waves that move in the same patterns within the larger patterns). The keys to analyzing Elliott waves is being able to recognize the patterns and the “degree” of trend (or countertrend) that you’re working within.
Impulsive (motive) waves move in very distinct and reliable patterns of five waves. Subwaves of motive waves measure out to specific lengths (fibonacci ratios) very accurately. Motive waves are the easiest waves to trade. You find them in a trending market.
Waves 1, 3, and 5 of a motive wave pattern each contain 5 impulsive subwaves. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend waves and move in 3 waves.
Countertrend waves move in 3 waves and always retrace to their start eventually. Counrtertrend (corrective waves) are typically in patterns — for example, a triangle, flat, or zigzag. Waves within those patterns can be difficult to predict, but the patterns themselves are very predictable.
Fibonacci ratios run all through the market. They determine the lengths of waves and provide entry and exit points. These measurements are really accurate in trending markets, but more difficult to identify in corrective markets (we’ve been in a corrective market in all the asset classes I cover since 2009).
To use Elliott wave analysis accurately, you must be able to recognize the difference between a trend wave (motive) and a countertrend wave (corrective). There’s very much more to proper Elliott wave analysis, but this gives you the basics.
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The Market This Week
Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)
Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).
My preference is for this unfolding fourth wave pattern is that of a regular flat. However, technically, it could also be and expanded flat. It could also be a running flat (an extemely low probability, as the fourth wave hasn't retraced anywhere near 38% of the larger wave. The first two options depend upon what you select as the A wave.
That means that the ES/SPX has multiple possibilities as to a target on the downside. Accuracy (in determining the most probable target) is going to depend upon both counting and measuring the waves to the downside. It's impossible to pick a downside target at this point in the process.
If we select all of wave 4 (on the chart) as the "A wave," then we're looking at a regular flat. In that case, this outcome is the most probable:
- the C wave of a flat is typically 100 - 165% of the length of the A wave (so the target would be from 2537 - 2323)
However, if you consider the smaller A wave as marked on the chart as the "A wave," then we have an expanded flat. The traits of the C wave down will be the same, but because the A wave is shorter, the target on the downside will not be as low (these targets are shown on the above chart):
- the C wave of a flat is typically 100 - 165% of the length of the A wave (so the target would be from 2537 - 2464)
There are other options:
- a running flat would trace out a C wave that is NOT longer than the A wave (in other words, it would not go to a new low). I regard this option as very low probability because of the structure of the other indices (NYSE particularly, which is not in a flat pattern and will most likely trace out a simple C wave to the downside, which will have to be a minimum of the same length as the A wave —the A wave in this case starts at the January 29 high). On a larger scale, we still haven't retraced anywhere near the 38% expected for a fourth wave.
- a simple C wave (not a flat) down the same length as the A wave (most likely in 5 waves) would target roughly 2537
- a simple C wave (not a flat) that is 1.618 extension of the A wave would target about 2323.
- we could go a bit lower, but we'll look at that option when we have more information.
Summary: We're waiting for a top in a B wave, which will result in a C wave to a new low. My preference is that this structure represents a regular flat, but there are other options. Once the c wave (down) is complete, expect a final fifth wave to a new high. That fifth wave up to a new high will be the end of the 500 year bull market.
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