Cycles Update, End of Day, Friday, Oct 9
Above is a brand new cycles analysis showing a turn Oct 13/14 (measurement is quite accurate) and a bottom of a rather sheer wave down on December 7, 2015. The full moon is also an important date in the Puetz crash window. I’ll do a fuller update post on the weekend.
Update: Noon EST, Oct 8
Here’s the triangle in the SP500. The E leg may have formed a triangle on its own (within the larger triangle), but be cautious here, as it still could come down to test the lower trendline (after I wrote this, I noticed we seem to now have cleared the upper trendline, so this is much less of an issue).
If it is, in fact, done, it will rise up to complete the 5th and final wave. Targets for the SP500 are 2020.68 (previous high) and approx. 2013 (62% retracement from the very top of the market). We are still completing a regular flat, which either goes to top of the A leg, or slightly above.
Similar levels for SPY are actually in reverse, as the previous high is above the 62% retracement level from market top. Previous high: 202.89. 62% retracement level: approx. 201.50.
Previous high for ES is approx. 2011.50.
Update Wednesday, Oct 7, 11AM EST – We look to have completed wave 1 of 5 in the SP500. Measuring this first wave and extending 1.618 from the bottom of the second wave puts us at about SP 2030 as a target.
Update Wednesday AM after the bell – We’re in the final fifth wave up. There are two main objectives now:
- the previous top at 2020.68 SPX and
- the 62% retracement from the very top of the market (at about 2031 SPX).
In either case, I think we’re looking at this whole correction being a second wave. As a result, it will be a very large downturn.
The Nasdaq looks like it may be stopping somewhere around here. This would put it into the third wave of the third when it turns down in earnest.
GDOW may be giving away the bigger picture, as it’s now moved above the 38% target and is on its way to the 62% target, which would also put it into a second wave position.
A telltale sign of the end in the US market may again be the EUR/USD, which has been tracing out a triangle. It moves inverse right now to the US market. I would expect it to finish the lower wave of the triangle as the market makes its top.
Addendum – Monday night Oct 5
Here is the SP500 above. Based upon my scenario of an ABC down wave from last week and an “ending wave” up, here’s the expected path. Wave 3 in the SP500 is 1.6 times the length of wave 1. Wave 4 should retrace to the previous wave 4. Wave 5 should end at 2020, although it could extend higher to create a flat.
Any flat correction is in a 3-3-5 pattern. In this case, the B wav