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A Renegade Count … Apparently

There are a couple of things that struck me over the past 24 hours or so.

1. The first thing is that John Hampson of Solarcycles.net took a good swing at the Elliott Wave Principle: “But the weakness of Elliott Waves is that on any chart at any time multiple different counts can be produced and are then refined with time to make the count always ‘right’ with hindsight.”

I know many of you have come from the Solarcycles site. Well, I correctly called the top of the market on May 20 and I’ve been right all the way down from the third into the fourth wave up. My counts have been called “a joke” (good joke though, with a terrific punch line!) I’m predicting a very big drop to come, and we’re getting closer and closer to the turn.

If you’ve been following me for any length of time, you know that I don’t provide two counts. If there’s a confusing wave structure, I would much rather “stand aside,” as I did last week. I like to take a stand and produce a count that can be traded (I’m a trader as well as an analyst, which may make me different than most). A trader needs a point at which you know you’re wrong. I don’t see any point in providing multiple counts. How on Earth could you trade them?

It’s only been this most recent wave down that’s had me waffling back and forth a bit last week. Today’s post certainly has no waffle in it. It’s going to be about why the recent wave down is not motive, which has been my feeling right from the start.

I’m not out to prove the validity of Elliott Waves. I happen to think they’re extremely valid and accurate. However, it’s the analyst who determines the outcome and I find way too often that most of them don’t take the time to drill down to look at the sub waves. After all, EW is fractal. That means its rules have to be adhered to right down to the one minute chart level.

2. The second thing that hit me on Friday was the report by Elliottwave International. They’ve labelled the wave down of the past two weeks as a  motive wave 1 and the wave on Friday an another wave 1 down, expecting this market to head straight down from here. If I was having a problem with wave 1 being motive, I REALLY have a problem with Friday’s EWI analysis!

It’s just these types of reports that give Elliott Waves a bad reputation. In all fairness, EWI shoots these reports out at the end of the session and the Friday wave down happened right at the end of the session. They don’t have the time I have to properly analyze the market. However, Friday’s end of day wave was an extremely obvious three waves on every US index, and the futures. Three waves retrace.

So … let’s go with my “Renegade Count!” My count will only have one direction (as usual) and I’ll provide you with lots of reasons to support it. We’ll see what happens Sunday in the futures.

Bottom line: We’re going to head up to do a double top on the SP500 at approximately 2020. If we head down to a new low on Sunday, I’m dead wrong … LOL.

SP500Sept 26

Above is the SP500 (a 10 minute chart) showing the wave down from September 17 (right after Janet Yellen’s announcement). The thing that’s been bothering right from the start is the missing second wave. I’ve seen EWI misread this so many times, I’ve lost count, so having them on the opposite side of the market from me is pretty ho-hum. As far as I’m concerned, this is a wave down in 3. It has to retrace. There are other problems like other missing sub waves, but they pale in comparison to the look of the wave and the fact that wave 2 is just not to be found.

The other red light for me is that seldom have I seen a spike that is not tested on such as important top. When I say seldom, I mean almost never. So, I expect the top to be tested at approximately 202o on the SP500.

SP500Sept 26CU

Let’s zoom into the SP500 to see what happened on Friday afternoon. We had what amounted to a B wave in response to the A wave up on Thursday and overnight. Note that the A wave up is in 5 waves, which would be a motive wave (but it’s a countertrend wave, so the measurements and waves don’t have to be exact). After a first wave up like this, I would expect a B wave in three waves and that’s exactly what we got. It was deep, mind you, but then we’re in a bear market and very close to a top of the larger 4th wave (the one we’ve been watching for about a month now).

I’ve marked the final wave up on Friday with a “4?.” That’s because the only way this wave could be a motive wave down would be if this wave turned down right now and went to a new low. However, there’s another problem. Fifth waves in motive waves are typically 1.618 times the length of the first wave. That would bring wave 5 down to the horizontal line at 1925.32. So, the wave lengths are not correct—it wouldn’t finish the wave.

GDOWdailySept26

One of my regular readers (Thanks, Paul!) suggested I do a count on the Global DOW (above). When I took at look at it, I thought, “Well, I just have to add this in to the weekend post. Because the GDOW supports the fact the we’re heading up short term. This chart has the look of a typical first wave down.

There’s a double top at 2640 or so after an obvious 4th wave and then a motive set of waves down (not finished yet). We now appear to be at the bottom of wave 3, about to retrace to wave four (4), which should reach the previous 4th (iv) at the 38% retrace line.  Once it does that, it will turn down in a fifth wave, which should be the length of the first three wave combined. That puts the target for the fifth wave at about 1975.

GDOWSept26CUrev

Here’s a 30 minute chart of the Global DOW. I drilled down to see if there’s anything that supports my higher level count. Sure enough, there is, and it’s strong.

This is a close look at the fourth (iv) wave of the third. It’s retraced in three waves to the 38% line (as it should) and then headed down in what I’ll suggest is 5 waves (there’s a big gap where the 2nd wave should be, so I can’t say for sure). Then we’ve headed up in a small a wave and come down on Friday afternoon in a b wave (just as we did in the US markets). The next move is up would be the c wave to complete the higher degree wave 4. At 38%, we should turn down into wave 5 (as I mentioned on the previous GDOW chart).

NYSE Sept26

Above is the NYSE, the elephant of indexes. It’s the largest stock exchange in the world. More trades (and capital) tend to make it more accurate. This chart just happens to drive another nail into the notion that we’ve completed a motive wave 1 down.

Besides the fact that there’s no second wave, we’ve have a wave 1 up (of 5 waves) and we turned down in wave 2 (or b) late Friday. The next move should be up.

The third issue with this wave is the EWI count that suggests that we’ve seen a second wave up on Friday. That would mean that we would continue down from here. However, the rule is that a second wave must at least retrace 38% (but in almost all cases retraces to 62%). This rule is a hard rule in Elliott Wave Theory. As we can plainly see, the NYSE hasn’t even retraced the 38%, so it should at least head up far enough to complete that task.

NasdaqSept 26

Now, let’s take a look at the Nasdaq (above). It retraced the entire length of the wave up it completed on Thursday (through Thursday night). That’s a very deep retrace and to a new low! However, it’s not really a new low, because it came down to a previous low from Sept 4 to complete a “flat.” It also messed up the motive count of the wave 1 down in the Nasdaq.

NasdaqSept26CU

Finally for charts, here’s a 3 minute chart of the late-in-the-day Friday wave down in the Nasdaq. A motive wave down must end in 5 waves. The three waves down is extremely clear here.  For my count to be incorrect, we must head down from here to a new low. So the prognosis here is that we’re going to head up to a new high (approx. 4960.)

One more note: We have an important end of quarter coming up on Wednesday of this week (typically very positive as fund managers attempt to make their quarter look good. We also have a Super Blood Moon Eclipse for Monday, Sept. 28. It may be responsible to some animal spirits being unleashed.

Sunspots Numbers from Time-Price Research

150926 Daily Sunspots 2014-2015

Here’s a copy of a chart from Time-Price Research that shows the spike in solar activity this weekend. It’s the highest sunspot number since April, 2014! Solar activity generally results in the spirits rising, along with the market.

Cycles Analysis

I ran these two charts on Thursday evening. I post them here just to remind you of what I’m getting from a cycles analysis.

SPY Sept 18 net profit

This is the first of two cycles analysis I ran. I’m using data going back to 2002 for both these charts. The software analyses all the data and finds all the cycles inherent in this asset. I chose the top eight cycles that it returned based upon returns in profit (if these cycles had been traded both long and short, from bottoms and tops, over the past 13 years).  Cycles repeat and so the past is a good indication of the future. This chart combines all the cycles found to provide a compilation wave. You can see how close-fitting it has been in the recent past. The fit with the current wave is quite stunning and therefore, something to pay attention to.

This analysis suggests a relatively strong positive bias to about October 1.

SPYsept 18 win percent

The second cycle I ran is the same as the first from a dataset perspective. This analysis focuses on percentage wins, playing both sides of the cycles. I used only the top 8 cycles (higher percentage win results) to result in a compilation wave. Choosing only the top cycles historically for this asset should provide a better forecast. The result is for a countertrend wave high into October. It is consistent with the first cycle analysis (net profit).

However, I note that the April through August time period shows a market with a possible inverse relationship to the cycle. That sometimes happens in cycles analysis. Therefore, there is a possibility that an inverse wave here (flipping the cycle vertically) suggests a turn down in the very near future, ending mid October. That would be in sync with the first cycles analysis I ran.

Similar articles by category: Market Forecast Overview
{ 181 comments… add one }
  • Vince September 26, 2015, 7:43 pm

    Dear Peter,

    I have been following you for a few months now and I compare your counts with EWI STU very closely too.
    You have been right on your counts and stand back when unsure ,rightly so.
    Attack , Defence and know when too be neutral.

    I personally think your counts are ok. Even legendary Precter made wrong calls way out last Oct in his EWT .
    I really wish you do not stake your credibility on Sunday night futures.

    Credibility is built over time and not overnight.
    You have definitely but up your credibility over the last few months.

    My respect for you. But pls be careful of exogenous events lately as it Shemitah.

    Great job and pls don’t stake your credibility on a single 24 hour futures.

    Vince

    • peter September 26, 2015, 8:36 pm

      Thanks, haha. I think I was so “floored” by others’ counts Friday based on what I’m seeing that it sparked a heavier than usual reaction. And, I’ve been waiting to destroy the wave 1 down motive wave option. The action Friday is overwhelming to me. I hope I’m not coming over as overly defensive. I’m not. Thanks for your post, Vince. 🙂

  • nicola2910 September 26, 2015, 7:48 pm

    Thank you Peter, You are good at presenting a clear picture, . I understand it….n

    • peter September 26, 2015, 8:45 pm

      Thanks, Nick! Take care.

  • scott liou September 26, 2015, 7:55 pm

    We have combined Chinese astrology and planetary analysis to forecast financial markets. The result is quite similar to yours. There will be a disastrous plunge on 9/28 and 9/29, and won’t rise until 10/6. The temporary rally will last until 10/17, followed by sideway. 11/7 and 12/7 will see another two more serious plunges. In a word, December is the bottom of 2015, similar to what happened in 2008. The analytical approaches are different from yours, but the result is similar. Please forgive my English, which weakens my arguments.
    Best Regards,
    Scott Liou in Taiwan
    *. I am a Canadian citizen in Taiwan.

    • peter September 26, 2015, 8:38 pm

      I think your English is just fine! I never would have known. Thanks for your post. I’m glad to see alternative methods that reach a similar conclusion. I’m finding the EW evidence more than a little convincing. Thanks, Scott.

    • Valley September 27, 2015, 11:57 am

      Shia Shia, Scott. Having a non correlated analysis tool that has independent predictive value is an excellent addition to EW and lunar seasonals.

  • Dimitri September 26, 2015, 11:04 pm

    Thanks, Peter,
    looking at the chart of GDOW I wonder what makes you think that the wave “v” of 3rd has stoped at 2229 and would not subdivide further down before bounce in the 4th?

  • Dimitri September 26, 2015, 11:23 pm

    Otherwise, why shouldn’t we consider the wave “iii” as 3 and the “iv” as 4 in your chart of GDOW?

    • peter September 26, 2015, 11:28 pm
      • Dimitri September 27, 2015, 12:55 am

        I agree, Peter,
        my question was why the wave “v” should stop at the low of the wave “iii” at 2229 when it could subdivide some lower before the bounce to the previous “iv” ?

        • peter September 27, 2015, 8:50 am

          Because this is still all part of wave 1. We’re simply finishing wave 3 at that point and so you typically get what looks like a double bottom at the bottom of wave 3. If it were to go lower at the end of wave 3, then you’d have an end to the entire wave making it wave 1.

          Don’t know if this makes sense, but we’re only halfway through the wave at this point.

          • Dimitri September 27, 2015, 11:19 am

            It seems to me from your post that you consider the wave 3 of the 1st already finished and expect the bounce in the wave 4 of the 1st.
            And I am asking if the wave “v” of the 3rd of the 1st may still subdivide lower?

          • peter September 27, 2015, 11:21 am

            Of course. Anything is always possible. That would be a completely different scenario.

          • Dimitri September 27, 2015, 1:17 pm

            Wise answer, Peter.

          • Dimitri September 27, 2015, 1:20 pm
  • andré September 27, 2015, 12:32 am

    Last weekend I said 9/17 wasn’t just a date; it was significant. So the market went down, as predicted.

    Thursday gravity gave an inversion and we are now retracing up. The square of nine tells me 9/29 is a magnet. But the venus cycle that started on the significant 9/9 date, will be at 60 degrees on Sunday. The first trade chart on NYSE confirms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are significant. Monday and Tuesday I see tidal inversions. 9/19 is a high in heliocentric bradley.

    So this retrace will be done by Tuesday at the latest. E-timing points to Monday evening.

    Then down into 10/6, reverse up into 10/14-15 (aniversery of Oct 2014 low) and then down again in the very significant 10/25-26 date, the last super full moon this year.

    After that I expect some retrace up into the end of december/early January before we turn south again.

    Cheers,

    André

    • andré September 27, 2015, 1:18 am

      The 10/6 date may extend into 10/8-9, due to tidal force.

    • andré September 27, 2015, 9:22 am

      Correction; Venus at 30 degrees 9/27. 60 degrees will be 10/16 and 75 degrees 10/25

      • Liz September 27, 2015, 12:48 pm

        Andre, what does this correction imply? Previously you said 60 degrees is 9/27 and you expect retrace to be done by Monday pm via E-timing, max into Tues? Does that change since Venus is at 30 degrees?

        • andré September 27, 2015, 1:46 pm

          Liz,

          No; nothing changes. But I wanted to get the facts right.

  • John September 27, 2015, 3:32 am

    Hi Peter,

    Thanks great work what I want to say to you in the financial world you will find the biggest ego’s that’s my experience.
    I have been in the bussiness for more than 30 years.
    What I have been practising and still do is non dualistic thinking
    que sera sera whatever will be….
    So if monday is a big up or down …go with the trend an trade what you see, like you told us.
    I don’t want to loose my self in the market and get a headache.
    My gut feeling is we will go down very heavily it might be monday or after Sept 30
    I have loaded my self up with put options Oktober and November..
    I wish everybody his share of luck and good trading and if you make a buck give some to the people who are in need..
    So competition is not my thing, I think John hampson also has a good site with solid information.
    So a little bit of this and that is my strategie to solve the puzzle..
    I read the newssletter from Mahendra ( the astrologer) and he wrote this one year ago

    ” Eighth cycle from 18th September to 9th October 2015 will remain very volatile. We will see sharp rises
    and falls in the market. Basically, people will start booking profit because of the big move earlier in
    the cycle. We do not recommend buying any positions on any correction during this cycle, but surely
    towards the end of the second week of October you should get ready to get into the market”

    Until now from Sept 17 he has been spot on:

    Cheers

    John.

    • peter September 27, 2015, 8:51 am

      Really interesting quote from a year ago, John. Talks to the predictability of all this, which is my ultimate interest. Thanks, John.

    • Dave September 27, 2015, 1:55 pm

      John, I suspect your comment above was referring to me. ( EGO) The reason I forward my trades Friday to peter, was in response to the viscous attacks on my integrity from the other site. Some of the attacks were in response to my trades that I had made, ( profitable trades )

      • John September 27, 2015, 3:45 pm

        Dave,

        No totally not,
        I mention this because I like this blog very much because it is very original it offers good insight from all perspectives and I like it to stay this way so it can give us all a good piece of positive energy..
        By the way the markets in Israel were very negative today.

        Cheers..

        • Dave September 27, 2015, 5:05 pm

          Hi John. I am with you for a down day Monday. I am looking for the end of the day to be lower than the top in the morning. I am hoping for some kind of pop first thing in the morning to drag the bulls back in. I will than go short with a 1/2 position. The other 1/2 I bought very late friday. Looking for the market to test at least the lows we had last week into late Monday perhaps Tuesday morning.

          This week, I do not see us going up to these inflated sp numbers of 2040 -2060 – 2070 that a number of traders have quoted. As it is, I find it very difficult to see us even going past 2070ish. As I see it, the Monday highs maybe the high for the week. For the Bulls sake, I hope I am WRONG. I will be on the short side most of the time with a 1/2 position for a swings up.

          During Mercury retrograde, most technical, charts graphs EW s go out the window during that time. In other words, very difficult to interpret the correct direction in the market. The most successful traders, go with their gut instincts. (intuition)
          Good luck every one

          • Dave September 27, 2015, 7:38 pm

            That 2070 figure quoted above is SP 1970

  • whitemare September 27, 2015, 7:14 am

    Re the renegade count, it could also work this way:
    on the SP500 10 minute chart
    0 at 2021 to 1/i at 1953 (68 pts)
    to 2/ii at 1979.64 ( a .382 retrace or is that insufficient)
    to iii at 1929.41 (50 pts from 2/ii)
    to iv at 1949.52
    to 3/ v at 1908.92. (41 pts from iv so iii is not the shortest) The distance from 2021 to 1909 is just barely over 1.618. QED
    If all the above is allowed, we are in a wave 3 and now correcting in a small 4.
    The eclipse should propel wave 5…

  • joe September 27, 2015, 2:19 pm

    Hi Peter
    I’m new to this discussion and understand Elliott wave theory very well .
    EWI has always labeled any drop as a 5 wave move and after almost a decade of following them I tossed my hands in the air and cancelled .
    there is one thing I think everyone is forgetting and it should be considered . if we only have 3 waves down and this 4th wave as I’ll call it doesn’t work out and we go back up above 2020 on the spx then what are we left with ? only a 3 wave drop ? you mentioned once before you hated 4 th waves ( more or less ) and I agree with you as 4th waves followed by 5th waves are the defining moment . if we take the market as it is and not what we think then we only have.3 waves down which implies new all time highs are coming . now if this really is a 4 th wave then even we can bounce and drop to a new low ,we will still get another bounce and all of that takes time to develop .
    bottom line : until we actualy see 5 clean waves down we should assume new highs are coming . look at the Sox monthy chart or the Dow or spx ext .start with a fresh unlabeled chart and try to sell yourself on the wave count you create using an open mind ,then try to explain your thinking to someone making a solid case ( in this case ourselves ) do we have 5 waves down ? no does this imply a bear market ? actually no ,did we make new yearly lows in the Dow ? no ! ( close but didn’t happen )
    what kind of percent down moves are the norm in bear markets first legs ?
    did we even come close to those declines ? no .
    yes we have huge risk yet I do not think this market has broken it’s bullish potential at this juncture .bear markets are usually full of people in denial and trying to buy the dip all the way down .in this case most everyone is
    convinced we are going to crash . news flash , the crash already happened and to expect more right now ? it’s possible but is it probable ?
    that’s the world we live in when trading , what is probable not what is possible .
    good luck sir
    I appreciate your work
    Joe

    • peter September 27, 2015, 3:04 pm

      Joe,

      Well, let me take you through some of my logic.

      As you know EW Theory well, you know that a fifth wave up to the top would be required as an ending wave and would have to be in 5 waves itself. And EW is fractal, so starting up in 3 waves doesn’t adhere to that rule.

      Somebody might argue that the DOW could go up in three as part of the ending diagonal we’ve left behind, but the problem with that is that it’s fallen below the ending diagonal pattern by a long margin.

      We clearly have 3 waves up so far. In fact, it’s an overlapping mess. The only way to change that would be to head to a new low and start over again.

      As well, the markets ended up in an ending diagonal with a double top. That’s an ending wave.

      On top of that, we have a GDOW that is in a similar position, but hasn’t managed to retrace more than 38%. It’s traced out a very obvious 4th and fifth wave leading to a double top. We’re now sitting in a similar position to the US indices.

      And then there’s the NYSE that hasn’t even made it to the retrace level of 38%.

      So, if I look at all the information on my plate at the moment, objectively, it doesn’t lead me to think we’re going up.

      That’s without getting into Dow Theory, gold, the vix, cycles analysis, astro, etc.

      Now I agree we need 5 waves down to technically establish a new trend. That’s what makes this set of waves so difficult to decipher relative to actually being “in the new trend.” However, EW is telling me we’re not going up (at least, everything I see tells me that), so I have no alternative (very objectively) than to figure out we’re going down, until I see something that tells me otherwise.

  • Dave September 28, 2015, 7:35 am

    Sold my half short sale from late friday. Waiting for a retrace up to go short.

    • dave September 28, 2015, 9:10 am

      going back short at the 1899 futures for day trade only. We may go back and retest the lows this morning.Good luck every one.

    • Dave September 28, 2015, 9:15 am

      I am going to wait for a retrace to go back short . To dangerous to short here.

    • Liz September 28, 2015, 9:58 am

      I haven’t sold the puts I bot last Friday. I am waiting for Aug. 26 low or below that depending on momentum.

      • Dave September 28, 2015, 10:42 am

        Way to go Liz, remember to take some money off the table to pay your self. All the best.

        • Liz September 28, 2015, 11:37 am

          Dave, thanks. I closed my puts. SPY 188.54 is close to 8/26 low 188.37. ES seems to be finding support around 1878 for now. In watch mode.

  • John September 28, 2015, 8:12 am

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZvljNvnd18

    Almost all crashes are with Mercury retograde: 17 sept/9 okt..
    1929
    1987
    2011

  • Dimitri September 28, 2015, 8:17 am

    Peter,
    do you have any idea what this market gonna do now when it has made a new low?

    • peter September 28, 2015, 8:33 am

      I would be very cautious here. I don’t particularly like anything I’m seeing. The wave down so far is in 3 waves so far, the DOW is not at a low, SP and Nasdaq are at Sept 2 lows. Let’s see if we break to a new low from here …

    • peter September 28, 2015, 9:04 am

      Right now, this looks very much like the start of the bounce.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 9:53 am

      This looks to me like a market trying to find a bottom, so as far as counts go and measurements, this could be the bottom of wave 1, which means a bounce is imminent. It certainly isn’t crashing, which is what I’d expect of wave 3. This isn’t a market I want to be anywhere near at the moment until it shows its hand. If it’s the bottom of wave 1, then we’ll have a large bounce to the 62% mark and a great short after that. I would be patient.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 10:27 am

      I have a projection for a low for the Nasdaq right here – at about 4585. If support doesn’t hold here, we must have fallen into a third wave, which would mean much more downside. I’m watching the eur/usd, which seems to move inversely to the us market and it looks like it may be topping in a triangle formation.

      The biggest challenge I’m having is the lack of a prominent wave 2 to measure from. The first wave is always the benchmark for further measurements, but because of the structure of this wave at the top, it become extremely difficult to project a wave bottom.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 11:05 am

      On the Nasdaq, if today completed wave 5, it is now 1.6 times the length of wave 1. In the SP500, it is the same length as wave 1. IWM is at a double bottom, and the DOW is close to one.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 11:38 am

      Well, I think I’ve finally figured out the wave lengths and what’s happening. The indices are somewhat out-of-sync, which has created a lot of confusion.

      This has to be the end of wave 1 down. The DOW did not go to a new low, as it’s already finished wave 1 down in the last leg down (it’s done 3 waves down today).

      The SP500 has a very unusual configuration. All the waves are the same length, except the third wave, which is slightly longer, which is has to be. We should have a big bounce here, if this is correct. IWM will bounce here too, along with GDOW, which didn’t move much today and looks like it’s simply finishing the tail end of wave 3 down.

      Eur/usd seems to be topping and the dollar seems to be bottoming (62% retracement).

      • Liz September 28, 2015, 11:47 am

        Whew! Just right on time. Thanks Peter. Would the SPY bounce be around 194/195?

        • peter September 28, 2015, 12:03 pm

          SPY should bounce to 197.50 (62%). That could change as I’m not sure it’s completely finished – looks like it has one more tiny wave left in it. The measurements there don’t quite work.

          I’ll do an update tonight. This is a whacky market. It doesn’t often get out-of-sync like this.

          I want to re-measure everything tonight and make sure I haven’t left anything out, but I’m pretty sure we’ve seen wave 1 now from everybody, even the NYSE, which has wavelengths similar to SPX. And the lengths may simply be thrown off by that the wave 2 missing fiasco.

          The DOW could also do a double bottom here …

        • peter September 28, 2015, 12:10 pm

          The bottom could still drop out of this thing. We could have fallen over into a third wave. However, measurements are suggesting an end to wave 1. We wait to see what happens.

          • peter September 28, 2015, 12:18 pm

            I’m now leaning towards having dropped into a third wave. The DOW has now hit a new low.

        • peter September 28, 2015, 1:03 pm

          This indeed looks like the fifth wave of a typical large first wave down.
          Targets DOW 15,975
          SP 1870
          Nasdaq 4485.

          This makes wave 5 of 1 the same length at waves 1-3, which is typical.

          So, Liz that will change the bounce number I gave you for SPY. Let’s see if we bottom at end of day at those numbers.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 1:32 pm

      Dmitri,
      This has ended up being a “double wave 1.” If you look at the configuration I gave you the link to, you can see it twice in the SPX. Once down to about 1928 and then the larger one, which should take us to about 1840. First waves can be confusing like that, but it’s the same configuration and the wavelength have pretty much the same ratio.

      • Dimitri September 28, 2015, 1:41 pm

        That’s what I was talking about yesterday when you’ve sent me that link

        • peter September 28, 2015, 1:43 pm

          My apologies. I didn’t get that from your explanation.

      • Dimitri September 28, 2015, 1:52 pm

        I just don’t understand one thing.
        SPX has lost today 60 points from 1940 practically directly without any significant retrace.
        Should it retrace or will go in the same manner to the target 1940?

      • Dimitri September 28, 2015, 1:52 pm

        1840

  • sjoerd September 28, 2015, 12:03 pm

    I changed my count and did some new fib’s.
    Bottom?? no proof yet!!! if down than the next tearget around 1840.
    http://screencast.com/t/eKleetJf

  • sjoerd September 28, 2015, 12:18 pm

    and whwn I use an EW-calc (by “sean”) then I get a target of around 1872
    only the zf doesn’t fit in this calc, so maybe it’s dead wrong.
    http://screencast.com/t/KPkCC2mzU

    • peter September 28, 2015, 12:32 pm

      If this is the fifth wave of the first wave, then I have a target sp 1840.

    • LIZ September 28, 2015, 12:34 pm

      Sjoerd, who is Sean? Today was unbelievable day with BLUE and VRTX. Then VRX I just rode the momentum when it was going down.

      • peter September 28, 2015, 1:17 pm

        let’s change SP bottom to 1836 and that would make ES about 1826.

        These all rely on wave 1 being the same eventual configuration all around.

  • s September 28, 2015, 12:47 pm

    sean has a FB-blog 7442 analytics and is doing very complicated things. I followed him a period but about a year ago he blocked me for “i don’t know the reason”. So i cannot ask him things i don’t understand and then my interest in his blog disappeared. But later i managed to duplicate his “EW-count”. Look to my previous posts and you see on one of these red, green, blue dots and from these dots red, green and blue “trendlines”. he uses these for break-out’s. A nice method. Further he has a calculation of targets one’s you have the first 2 waves. Complicated because he uses another “ew-language” but sometimes very accurate. ILater I also maneged to duplicate this calculation (he never mentioned by himself how he is doing it!). There are a few little problems in my “copy” but it’s all workable. I hope you understand, englisch is not my natal.

    sjoerd

    • Dave September 28, 2015, 2:11 pm

      I followed Sean like a hawk for several weeks. ( late July into the end of Aug) If I had taken his SP figures in trades, I would have lost my shirt. I would be very careful with his info. Best of luck.

  • sjoerd September 28, 2015, 12:54 pm

    I see my reply didn’t arrive > so now short sean has an FB-blog “7442 analytics”.
    he is doing very complicated things and is based on EW (break-out’s).

    • peter September 28, 2015, 1:11 pm

      There now. Sometimes they get hung up and I have to add manually.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 1:15 pm

      Oh … because you only put in ‘s’ as a name, it’s thinks you’re a newbie.

  • Dave September 28, 2015, 2:01 pm

    Went long 1872 futures via UPRO. Small position

    • Liz September 28, 2015, 2:15 pm

      Dave, Icahn is releasing a video “Danger Ahead” at midnight.

      • Dave September 28, 2015, 2:29 pm

        Thanks Liz, I guess the drinks are on you Liz. You did extremely well. LOL, Where do we meet ? I tend to go against the herd when trading. Last Friday, I noticed many good traders on other blogs were going long. They were thinking a retrace up in the markets before shorting. That is why one of my reasons I went short as well as my gut instincts late in the day Friday. I am looking for a modest bounce to short it again, maybe tuesday or wed. Good Luck

  • sjoerd September 28, 2015, 2:01 pm

    http://screencast.com/t/95t38zdER5v8
    Maybe nice for the people who love astronomy. here an example, the stoxx 50 index.
    hourly. the colored (near) horizontal lines are (special) planet lines. You see near the lines a lot of inflections and also at the yellow arrow time the cross between venus (green) and neptune (gray) has an important inflection. I’m trying to combine this with other technics.

  • joe September 28, 2015, 2:14 pm

    hi Peter , not sure if you got my prior response or not
    I’ll touch on a few things . this market has so far this year been trading the inverse of both 1929 and 1987 ,when I line the inverted chart up to today it labels today as a low ,this implies a very strong 10-14 day bounce .I do see you mentioned the Dow failing as well as the other indices doing different things . all that said I don’t see 5 waves down ,it can be an a wave or it could have been a b c which began back in July 2014 on the $nya . this is why I’m not counting this as bearish in the bigger picture .
    as noted earlier if you got my message ,Tuesday’s market action is my focul point and must be up or I am wrong , in addition Oct 26 is a long term cycle low based on the work of James mars langham .I’ll mention mercury midpoint but that is merrimans work not mine . with everyone selling this market it’s a very tough stance to call a 10 day 2000 point advance becoming tomorrow yet my plan is simple ,I’m long and will use today’s low as my stop and will follow that stop up using every other day as my next stop , hence Monday ( today ) then Tuesday’s low if it’s a higher low on Thursday Wednesdays low next Monday and so on .I. going to exit if it works Oct 12-13th and regardless of what the market does from that point I’m going to wait untill Oct 26 before trading again and may very well wait longer but Oct 26 is the longer term cycle low that follows today ,I only have a view point of now till Oct 13 so that’s my trading window

    • peter September 28, 2015, 2:22 pm

      Joe,
      No, didn’t get it. I absolutely see 5 waves down (or almost) from today (except for wave 1 and 2, which I keep harping about). It’s the usual first wave pattern that EWI never “gets” but this one had two of the same configuration within it at different degrees. And eventually, the DOW toed the line. So, other than the final bottoming process tonight (futures), I think we’re all lined up for a bounce tomorrow.

      That was the most confusing wave structure I’ve ever seen. It had me up and down the entire time. In any event, I’ll post the count for each of the indices tonight. If we bounce tomorrow morning, we’ll be into the second wave and that’ll make things a lot more predictable (we could still also go for the top …)

      I’ve been labelling this as ABC due to the missing second wave (and hey, it could still be), but the measurements and final wave structure support a first wave down. The measurements are exactly the same for both this type of wave 1 configuration and for an corrective wave, so in fact, we still could reach for the top or turn over at 62%. The wave up should give us a clue, I hope.

      Thanks for your input.

      • joe September 28, 2015, 6:06 pm

        hi Peter
        I’ll say a few things assuming we rally and this turns out to a low of importance . EWI will label it a truncated 5th . $ nya may 21 to July 8 wave 1 ,triangle 2 wave 3 pretty obvious wave 4 simple which makes sense with a complex triangle 2 and wave 5 sloppy yet using a close only chart today was the new closing low ,very sloppy wave count but it’s a 5 .
        $nya weekly chart , June 30 weekly closing top , abc down into Oct 13 2014 low ( weekly chart ) a triangle b 5 ovealpjng waves in c to the top and then if you use the close only chart weekly .May 11 to July 20 leading diagonal wave 1 down wave 2 simple wave 3 obvious wave 4 simple and wave 5 now ,yet the week is not over . larger picture $nya wave a from June 30 2014 to Oct 13 2014 lasted 15 weeks and fell 1219 pts and change ,wave b up lasted 31 weeks to a slight new high and this wave c down has so far lasted 19 weeks and the next 15 week period is the week of Dec 6th 2015 .looking at a bar chart though I am not able to count 5 waves down .additionally wave c as I’m calling it has been barily 1.382 times a which is a sad c wave yet maybe it’s not done falling ?
        on the nya wave c will equal 1.618 times a at 9281.28 .wave c has lasted 1.266 times a so far , 1.236 times 15 equals 18.5 weeks ( wave a lasted 15 weeks ) lastly and this is suspect , weekly high before the top June 23 2014 ,22 weeks later weekly high after a top Nov 24 2014 weekly high before the top April 27 2015 and now this week .all 22 week periods labeled top to top to top to bottom ? last point on this ,the 15 weekly period from June 30 2014 it’s last time period was the week of Aug 24 and it’s next period is the week of Dec 6 , the 22 week periods begin Jan 20 2015 . the month of August on a monthly Dow chart is either a top or a low ,Dec 1999 plus 94 months top to top plus 94 months Aug 2015 ,Oct 2002 plus 77 months March 2009 plus 77 months Aug 2015 .
        long term thoughts and I’ll wrap this up , I count this drop as a complex wave 4 of a wave 3 . if you believe this has been a b wave rally since 2009 you will be bearish , I get it . if you think as I do ( I don’t think you do ) then you notice things like March 2009 low plus 26 months to may 2011 high plus 26 months plus 26 monthsJuly 2013 plus 26 months September 2015 .bottom top top bottom .the new month is begining and I think this will be an October to remember , will see though how tomorrow’s market trades , I still think 23550-24000 in 2017-2018 before this ends and ends very badly

        • peter September 28, 2015, 7:35 pm

          Hi Joe,
          This is a little hard to follow but I think I get the gist of it. Yes, I think the big wave up from 2009 is a b wave-it’s not motive. Wow … you think we’re going up again. Hmmm.
          I may post tonight or may wait until this wave bottoms … so I could do something in the morning. I’m leaning back to this being an abc drop.

          I’ll try and get into the detail of your comment in a day or two when I have a bit more time.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 3:05 pm

      Of course, I may think differently once I get a really good look at the sub waves … which I haven’t had a chance to do today.

    • peter September 28, 2015, 4:01 pm

      Joe,
      The biggest challenge I have tonight is the DOW. I can’t get a motive count out of this wave down any way I look at it. All the other indices are dubious. Like you, I don’t see any “clean” wave 5 counts.

      Quite frankly, the DOW looks like a fourth wave as it’s come down to the previous fourth wave …

      I have learned that if the market quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck and to leave any pre-conceived notions in the closet …

      But I’ll leave it for a few hours and get back to it later tonight.

      • Joe September 29, 2015, 6:40 am

        Peter
        looking at the overnight Dow amino futures
        take the bottom and count backwards and you will see
        the 5 wave overlapping waves from Monday’s late day high
        From 15988 to 15799 and the snap back where we go from here I’ll leave for the market to prove ,today I’m staying open minded

  • Joel Lovingfoss September 28, 2015, 2:32 pm

    Since the late 90s I too have a similar view expressed by John Hampson concerning the weakness of Elliott Wave analysis… 17 years worth of seeing many “experts” (Prechter, etc) being wrong on their calls at crucial turning points is one reason. Being wrong is not the problem as long as one learns from his mistake, but constantly revising the count (“making the count always ‘right’ with hindsight”) never admitting error as most e-wave chartists do is where I would agree with Mr. Hampson.

    The other problem I see is a “charts tell all” mentality that most e-wave chartists have… “market fundamentals are useless” they say. In fact, in my experience, the people that believe such a thing, only do because they either do not understand market fundamentals or do not know how to interpret them correctly. To the contrary, a proper combination of both fundamental analysis, cycles and e-wave charting result in much more accurate time/price projections. The disciplines complement one other and must be in synch for a higher percentage of success.

    My definition of market fundamental analysis rooted in history is broad and would need to be explained… it not only examines related current and past macroeconomic factors, financial and other qualitative / quantitative factors, but everything that can affect the market’s value including monetary policy, overall economy, industrial sector conditions both domestic and global, etc. It also incorporates the historical cycles (like the solar cycle (and other cycles) for instance that I’ve been tracking for over 17 years now)…. and when analyzing specific stocks, the company-specific factors like financial conditions, management, etc.

    How does this relate to today’s stock market action? Granted, long-term price movement is much easier to predict based on the cycles that govern market psychology, but short term action is also possible to predict if one spends enough quality time understanding the market psychology and its interaction with such things as Fed monetary policy in combination with e-wave charting. A correct anticipation of market action based on FA helps to see the correct e-wave count when confronted with multiple possibilities. As well, understanding the cycles that govern the markets also helps to anticipate the correct chart path.

    As an example, the latest top was anticipated to occur on September 16 to 17th… and then the next bottom was expected to occur going into October 6 to 12th (a number of cycles in play). So we got the September 17th top / sell signal which was corroborated by the projected brief rebound from September 24 to 25th, after which a sharper drop was expected…. check! So stocks did fulfill their brief bounce with all three indices providing fairly precise 50% rebounds (of the recent declines), and (per my FA commentary) a new decline was expected to begin today….

    Last November and December of 2014, the stock indices were expected to suffer approx. 20% corrections after their May top into October 2015 (in synch with the 17-Year cycle). In the case of the DJIA for example, a drop to approx. 14,700 would accomplish that. However, there remain other key downside targets around 14,200.

    So why the vulnerable month of October for a sharp drop? Aside from FA, cycles, and TA… market fundamentals include the history of markets. History teaches us of the bearish stock market events of October 1929, October 1989, and October 1987, October 1990, October 1997, October 1998, October 2002, October 2008, October 2011, October 2012, October 2013…. many of these dates marked the culmination of successive sell-offs. In 2014, the sharpest downdraft occurred between September 15 to 19th and October 13 to 17th. So the point is that we are here once again in 2015 at a time when equities just set an intervening high on September 17th and a similar sell-off is expected/projected to accelerate into October 12 to 16th.

    If we take into consideration other factors affecting market psychology such as China’s Index remaining precariously close to its late August low of approx. 2,927, we see that it has already dropped 43% from its high. So the horde of investors is closely watching if Shanghai Composite convincingly closes below 2,927 in fear that it would accelerate down to major support around 2000 wiping out its entire multi-year advance.

    As well, we have the the Ruble drifting dangerously close to multi-decade lows after losing 70% of its value between 2008 to 2014. So yes… market fundamentals do matter (at least a correct interpretation), because everything is interconnected and affects outcomes. If any of these markets break the 2015 lows (as I suspect), another significant round of selling in Global and US stock indices will occur.

    • Dave September 28, 2015, 2:46 pm

      Great info Joel. Much appreciated for all the insights, you have on the market.

      • Joel Lovingfoss September 28, 2015, 3:40 pm

        Dave… thanks for the reply.

        Going forward from today’s expected drop in the markets (as detailed in my FA), all it would take is a few % more downside of the moves already made to trigger a disproportionate / panicked world-wide selling response by the not so “efficient” market horde of investors sitting on the edge of the abyss.

  • Whazzup September 28, 2015, 3:26 pm

    Thanks Joel for your post! Appreciate it! 🙂

    @Sjoerd, NL I guess (using Alex right)? 😉
    Ik volg Sean via zijn kanaal, maar geld verdienen ermee lukt niet als hij steeds data vooruit schuift. Mocht je het leuk vinden, kunnen we per e-mail eens contact hebben?

    Cheers,

    Wouter

    • Joel Lovingfoss September 28, 2015, 3:41 pm

      You’re welcome Whazzup!

    • Sjoerd September 29, 2015, 2:12 am

      Right. Kunnen we zeker proberen wouter.

  • joe September 28, 2015, 8:10 pm

    hi Peter
    I do think from what I’ve read that your good at eliiotwave theory so don’t get me wrong here , this market looks to me like it’s being traded by a computer and that is why it’s so technical and it explains the equal moves with in the swings .also it’s why it’s becoming relentless but all that said we have not broken the August lows no 5 waves down but very scary looking . if this is the future of trading then it’s going to become somewhat more difficult unless you really have a good handle on everything going on , there are a few consistancies I’m starting to see on the short term charts , kind of amazing actually , it’s repetitive repeat patterns mostly all equal price and time moves , sane thing when I look at the tick intra day ,short term trading I see lots of low low high high type formations over and over , but no real strength , selling and selling and selling , just one way trends then we get those days of the opposite same type moves though , I can admit I’m wrong when I’m wrong ,I’m just noting that as the liquidity runs out I think the computers have a bigger influence so I guess thinking like a computer along with using the wave counts abc or 5 wave moves and looking at and excepting equal price and time moves is going to be important
    that’s it
    I’m keeping everything off tomorrow other that my charting software and will focus on my trading plan , I would favor 16674 in the Dow by Friday’s close , Tuesday an up day , if I’m wrong well then I’m long and wrong and will exit
    Joe
    good luck and thanks for your site

    • peter September 28, 2015, 8:25 pm

      Joe,
      I agree on strength. We should be seeing more. The other thing I see happening is that every time the euro goes up, the market goes down, so a lot of movement is based on the dollar, it seems. There’s no fear. There are a lot of things that concern me about this market. But we’ll see what happens in the morning. Futures are trying to continue down without any conviction.

      Your target seems reasonable to me. I think based on today that we’re going back to the recent top.

  • john September 29, 2015, 12:45 am

    Goodmorning ,

    What concerns me still a lot of people are expecting a counter move a can not believe the markets keep heading south
    I think it’s our brain that is so used to the up reflex since 2009 but I think this time is different we need to see panic big panic selling headlines in the newspapers, that’s the time I will sell my puts..
    I still will focus on time and see what the markets will bring at Okt 6- 9.

    Good luck don’t burn yourself.

    • peter September 29, 2015, 12:47 am

      It looks like we’re starting a reversal right now. Futures did ending diagonals, as did the euro. We’ll see if it holds.

      • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 2:18 am

        Peter,
        you suppose the reversal.
        Do you still expect 1840 ?

        • peter September 29, 2015, 2:22 am

          No, this proves these are not motive waves down. Futures did an ending diagonal early. They’re abc waves, particularly the DOW. So 62% is an intermediate target, but I still think we’re going to 2020 SPX. I was one wave early on calling that, I think. We’ll see.

          These wave so far (going up) are motive, so it supports doing 5 waves up to a double top.

          • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 2:35 am

            I see strong buy in Europe on good volumes since the very open

          • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 2:36 am

            Have been waiting for the retrace at 1878. Haven’t got it

          • peter September 29, 2015, 2:56 am

            Yeah, we’ve done one wave up in ES. We’ve just started a second wave. I’m short at the moment. I’d say 1870 about is the jump in point.

          • peter September 29, 2015, 3:00 am

            The wave up extended. Surprised me, too.

      • John September 29, 2015, 10:10 am

        I m not surprissed if the market would drop to sp 1600 or so at this point..

    • Whazzup September 29, 2015, 3:02 am

      Hey John!

      According to my count, 8/9 Oct will be the bottom (wave e of ending diagonal wave 5 of big wave 1). So, I will short at Oct 2 for the final low (I am in call options right now), AEX 390+-. Then we get the counter move up till 28/29 Oct. And than we can go south again in the biggie one wave 3. 🙂

      So yes, I do agree with you John, it is not going up up up anymore like we are used too…

      Cheers,

      W

  • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 3:05 am

    They have done it the previous days too. Short squeeze in the morning and downhill after.
    But today looks to be motive up. May be for two days to close the quarter not so red.

  • Dave September 29, 2015, 7:46 am

    I am now fully invested long this morning. Picked up some more UPRO from Sp futures at 1971 We are in a counter wave up. Way to Bearish. Every one is looking for 1820 ect. Mr Market is going to throw a curve ball to the Bears I believe.

  • Dave September 29, 2015, 8:10 am

    If we can get thru the 1980 -84 futures, that will have the bears scrambling to sell, to propel the market upwards.

  • Whazzup September 29, 2015, 9:20 am

    Dave!

    I agree with you, we go up now (I think till 1-2 Oct). 1960 Seems to be a good price for now.

    Cheers,

    W

  • Dave September 29, 2015, 9:25 am

    Sold my shorts, waiting for a lower price to get back in long today. Tomorrow looks very bullish. All the best.

    • Dave September 29, 2015, 9:38 am

      This market is not going to make higher highs until tomorrow. I have gone back short from 1978 futures

      • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 9:59 am

        I think the market has no idea where to go.
        It has chased the stops under 1884SPX and over 1894SPX.

  • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 10:18 am

    Peter,
    do you have any idea what is this flat today?
    I hope it’s not the wave 4?

    • peter September 29, 2015, 10:27 am

      Not around much today. Not sure what this means. I see the futures are putting in a second wave … and should head up in a third momentarily, I think.

      • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 10:38 am

        But it seems to me that the 1st wave up from 1876SPX this morning is in 3, so not motive

    • peter September 29, 2015, 10:36 am

      Don’t know what you mean by flat. Don’t see one. But here’s a key to what’s happening. Watch the eur/usd. It topped last night and it runs inversely to the market. So right now, it looks like it’s doing a second wave and should turn down (likely as the market turns up). It’s got motive waves, too, so it may mirror the market.

    • peter September 29, 2015, 10:46 am

      If this bigger wave down is an abc, then I would expect cash to do a double bottom (looks like they all went up in 3 waves). Futures have already done an ending diagonal, but they could test it. Markets should head up after all that’s done. This was a big drop, so it will take to time for it to turn. Looks bullish to me, and certainly if eurdollar is turning down, it will be.

      • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 11:08 am

        In this case the wave up in futures from1972SPX should be still considered as the 1st and we’ll go in the 3rd or the wave in cash after double bottom will be the1st ?

        • peter September 29, 2015, 12:29 pm

          Up from 1972? In futures, or SPX? Is that number wrong? Sorry … in and out today.

        • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 1:21 pm

          Yea, I meant 1962ES futures

          • peter September 29, 2015, 1:36 pm

            Still don’t understand. I don’t see an ES wave UP from 1962 that could be considered a first wave.

            In any event, the wave down we’re finishing is a corrective wave. You just have to look at the ending wave for final proof. It’s clearly not motive. We head up tomorrow.

  • joe September 29, 2015, 10:34 am

    hi Peter
    I mentioned the technical market and computerized trading I think is effecting the market ,I’ll note something I discovered last night and it’s still the same this morning as I follow the live trading , what I’m seeing over and over is 3 wave moves ,waves 1 and 3 are basically the same point moves yet wave 4 is an overlap , here is what I’m seeing though these retracements and I’ll note the 3 4 5 , take the low of wave 3 to the high of wave 4 ( very short term charts ) use a 1.27 and 1.5 reteacement .
    they are showing up over and over , also the a b c bounces are 2 equal moves yet take the top of a to the bottom of b and use the 1.27 and 1.5 retracement . that method may not continue but it’s nailing the short term swings over and over , all of this is looking like 5 overlapping moves so my guess is we are going to see those ratios in the larger term 60 minute charts and possibly the daily yet I have not researched it .it a all 3 waves down and 3 wave ups over and over yet bigger picture it’s 5 overlapping down waves with 3 waves up back to wave 4 .
    simply amazing ,I’ve never seen these ratios so dead on ever
    I’m thinking now ,it’s more about Oct 26 then now for a low ,and it’s clearing up ,if I don’t see anything significant today I’m abandoning my bullish trading till then
    Joe

  • Dave September 29, 2015, 11:20 am

    9.29.15

    It’s all downhill from here…

    …well, down anyway. An emissions scandal at VW (the world’s largest auto maker), the announcement from Caterpillar that it is laying off 10,000 workers, a 5,000% price increase in a 62-year-old drug, the resignation of the US Speaker of the House, and Janet Yellen reaffirming a rate hike before the end of the year… what’s not to be bullish about?!

    I find no reason to expect anything more than a slight hesitation in the decline which began two weeks ago until early next week, Oct 5/6. Oct 5 is exciting as it would be the first low forecast with the Hybrid Lindsay model centered on the bull market high (5/19/15). The intermediate lows of the 1929-1932 bear market were all forecast using this model centered on the bull market high in September 1929. A low on Oct. 5/6 is also forecast with a Middle Section centered on the high of the previous Basic Cycle, 5/2/11.

    A break of 1,850-SPX opens the door for a return to the Jan’14 low near 1,750 which corresponds to the measured move from the bearish pennant formation.
    From George Lynsey Model

    I have had oct 5th-6th on my calendar for over a month. In the mean time. I am waiting to get back in long for tomorrow. exit longs tomorrow afternoon. Re short for Oct 1st. Oct 1st looks like a nasty day on the down side.

    Good luck to all.

  • Dave September 29, 2015, 1:13 pm

    sold out of shorts futures 1869 Going long here again from 1868 UPRO

    • Dave September 29, 2015, 1:55 pm

      I am going to stay long for a bullish day tomorrow with my half position. May pick up the other half tomorrow morning. Good luck every one

      • peter September 29, 2015, 2:02 pm

        The wave down we just finished has been confirmed as a corrective wave by the ending wave, which was in 3. So the entire thing is corrective. This puts the target at the top: The 2020 scenario in the SPX.

        • Gary September 29, 2015, 2:20 pm

          Hi Peter!

          I am a newcomer. Really nice work and commentary here : )
          If you had to make a real wild guess at timing, when would you expect SPX 2020?

          Also, do you have a current count on the Euro?

          Thanks,

          Gary

          • peter September 29, 2015, 2:31 pm

            Welcome, Gary,
            I would guess a week to get to the top.
            The euro topped last night (not sure if that’s short term or long term). It’s in a countertrend pattern (corrective). I see one motive wave down and a second wave complete. Should head down from here.
            I may add a chart to a post I do tonight as it moves inversely to the US markets, and is the key reason the markets have turned up, imho.

          • peter September 29, 2015, 2:33 pm

            Oh, just checked .. let me add that the euro looks like it may still need to complete a double top (not positive about that). So far, it’s three waves up.

        • Dimitri September 29, 2015, 11:33 pm

          Peter,
          looks motive this wave up.
          Should it retrace 62% like always?

          • peter September 29, 2015, 11:35 pm

            yup. Yes, it’s motive. They always go to the previous 4th wave. You can see ES exceeded it a bit. You can easily pick out the waves. A very long 5th.

          • peter September 29, 2015, 11:36 pm

            And yes … 62%. I’m short, although I’m editing so I won’t be around my computer much. I’m pulling an all-nighter.

          • peter September 29, 2015, 11:39 pm

            Once you get one wave down, you can do a fib extension. So the wave 1 is 100% and 1.6, 2.6, etc are the likely stopping points. It gives you an alternate way of checking against 62% as it can vary a little bit.

          • peter September 29, 2015, 11:43 pm

            For this particular wave down, I’m also watching euro dollar as I expect it to do a double top at about the same time this wave reaches 62%. Have to get back to editing …

          • peter September 30, 2015, 12:03 am

            Jeez! This must be a third wave!

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 12:06 am

            I’m short too.
            What’s your target ES for this short?

          • peter September 30, 2015, 12:06 am

            Or just the German market open … anyway, have to get back to work. I will likely just stay out til I see what morning brings.

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 12:52 am

            The previous retracement was a little bit shallow – 38% for this wave up to be the third. More looks like the fifth but a little bit too extended

          • Liz September 30, 2015, 1:03 am

            What numbers do you have Dmitri, Peter? I was thinking ES will retrace to about 1881 then bounce to 1898 then to 1914/1915? There is also a 1919 gap to be filled.

          • peter September 30, 2015, 1:29 am

            If this is the third wave, it will likely go to about 1900 then retrace 38% and do a fifth up. After that, a large 62% retracement, maybe first thing in the morning. We look to me to be in the fourth of the third.

            I told Dmitri I’m also watching the eur/usd, which travels inverse to the us market. It’s coming down with a ways to go.

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 1:40 am

            Peter,
            but there was no 2nd of 62% retracement between the 1st and the 3rd and inside the 3rd I don’t see it too

          • peter September 30, 2015, 2:34 am

            Well, there was, but it was in the first wave. It did five waves up and did a small retracement going into the third wave. In know … I expected a larger second. But there will be one when this wave tops and it will be a big one.

          • peter September 30, 2015, 2:37 am

            For the fourth of the wave down, I guess it’s at the spike at 1902 so we may end up there. I can see the likely targets on YM an NQ and they’re all about the same distance.

          • Liz September 30, 2015, 1:54 am

            Thank you Peter. Dmitri, I think it is mimicking 9/24 action. Only 38%. Maybe I’m wrong.

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 2:54 am

            So, Peter,
            sometimes you accepte that the 2nd retrace only 38%, sometimes not.
            What does it depend upon?

          • peter September 30, 2015, 3:02 am

            It always goes a 62% retracement of the first wave, but at the end of the first wave, sometimes it has a shallow retracement and heads into the third. I don’t know the difference. It’s not that often you see this configuration.

            Now, we’re almost at the end of the third, maybe one more little up wave. Then expect a retracement to the previous 4th and then a fifth wave which will be 1.6 times the length of the first (as long as the third). That puts us at about 1913 … aha and that looks like the previous 4th. So a ways to go. Too bad I’m so busy, I can’t participate, but I’ll perhaps get the wave down and the next wave up.

          • peter September 30, 2015, 8:55 am

            Dmitri,
            The problem with this market is that the futures are up in 3 waves. You can see that particularly in YM. ES did not come down to a new low after the first wave up yesterday (it missed by a few ticks), so overall we have 3 waves up.

  • Whazzup September 29, 2015, 2:44 pm

    André!

    Just reread your comments about 8/9 October. What about a high at that time instead of a low?

    Cheers,

    W

  • Joe September 30, 2015, 12:05 am

    hi Peter
    Tuesday turned out to be an up day .which was a must for my bullish thoughts ,I’m going to go on a stretch here yet it dove tails with what I mentioned with the ratios of 1.27 and 1.5 . firstly though this bounce can be very strong into Oct 12-13th . so far the inverted crash is pretty much dead on ( no gusrentees obviously ) so a surge higher as my trading plan was initially is still on track ( I got nervous and had a plane to catch as the market was near the lows Tuesday, such us life ) bottom line though
    is this may allnturn out to be an even larger 5 overlapping waves and if so this bounce will retrace 1.27 to 1.5 the entire drop from the Sept 17th top and would also need to overlap wave 1 ,I realize it breaks the rules yet
    it would be a wave 4 .then another decline to a slight new low into Oct 26 early Nov .ewi will be screaming 3rd of 3rd a wonder to behold and yet
    the market will turn up . on the other side as I noted . my trade ends Oct 12-13 th . and I’m moving my stops up along the way .this is either a strong vertical thrust up eithbthe potential towards 19,500 in the Dow by Oct 12-13 or it’s not .but that’s the potential .regardless of price though I exit on my turn date if not stopped and I’ll wait and see what I think.
    those ratios blew my mind and I’m thinking it’s something I’m going to research in depth .at the moment I don’t have the time which is why I passed it along if you find the interest .
    all for now
    Joe

  • Dave September 30, 2015, 7:54 am

    The biggest one day rallies usually happen in Bear Markets!

    • John September 30, 2015, 8:01 am

      A good call Dave,

      In Europe we are almost 3% up

      • Dave September 30, 2015, 8:42 am

        Hi John. I am still long and strong here for just today. Depending on the reaction high today, I will be going short towards the end of the day for tomorrows dump. This is a bear market rally only. I am neither a bear nor bull, I am just playing the swings with Mr Market. All the best.

        • peter September 30, 2015, 8:53 am

          I haven’t had a chance to look at the markets in depth, but the futures are 3 waves up at the moment. That’s also what the cash market looks like.

          In order to get bullish again, they’d have to come down 38% or so and then complete wave 5. So we’re looking bearish at the moment …

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 9:17 am

            There is a lot of Chinese and Jap stats tonight.
            And I don’t talk about Yellen.
            Everything may happen

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 9:55 am

            Peter,
            what level do you see where they should come down?

          • peter September 30, 2015, 10:04 am

            Depends what we’re doing. If we’re going to do a fifth wave up, then it should come down to ES 1890 or so. We’re not coming down, so that suggests there’s more upside.

  • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 10:05 am

    You suppose that we might mot make the 5th?

    • peter September 30, 2015, 10:12 am

      If we’re going to the top, we have to. Otherwise, we’re going to new lows.

    • peter September 30, 2015, 10:14 am

      We could also do a b wave and then a c wave to complete a second wave. I haven’t had a chance to have a good look at the market and I’ve been up all night, we’ll just have to see what happens.

      • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 10:20 am

        What 2nd wave?

        • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 10:57 am

          Ok, got it

      • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 10:22 am

        This wave down looks motive in 5

        • peter September 30, 2015, 10:57 am

          Well, if we go up in 3 waves 62%, then I’m in.

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 11:00 am

            They should bounce before Yellen

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 11:09 am

            When they retrace 62% of the wave down how you will know that it’s the 2nd before the 3rd wave down and not the 5th wave up started after 38% retrace down?

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 11:50 am

            Peter,
            Here we are.
            How do you see it?

  • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 10:26 am

    The boring thing is that they’ve organized the rebound in futures and distributed all the day the paper in Europe and hold it until the close of European markets

    • Dave September 30, 2015, 10:55 am

      You are correct Dimitri, its pump day today and dump day tomorrow.

      • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 11:23 am

        Too many stats from China and Japan tonight.
        It may go both sides tomorrow

  • Dave September 30, 2015, 11:27 am

    Peter, did you listen to Martin Armstrong conference yesterday? I missed it, or I would have listened to the conference. He is the only one that I know of, that could thread a needle a mile away with his cycles. He has as You know a major cycle day tomorrow. Looking back with his cycle forecast, tomorrow should be a good size down day. I plan on getting short later on today for tomorrow.

    • peter September 30, 2015, 11:44 am

      I’ve been up around the clock on a project, so haven’t even had a chance to look at the markets until now. No, didn’t know about it.

    • Gary September 30, 2015, 12:47 pm

      Hi Dave,
      Martin’s ECM turn 2015.75 (October 1st) is looking for a decline in Governments worldwide. Martin is actually looking for a slingshot move upwards in the US stock market and the USD. Not necessarily tomorrow. He emphasizes that it is the beginning of a process from a 300 year cycle change. The loss of confidence in worldwide governments is going to have capital from all over the world going into US equities. Martin says the Bond market is in a bubble. All data can be found here.

      http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2015/09

      • Dave September 30, 2015, 1:41 pm

        Hi Gary. Thank you for your reply. I have know Armstrong work since 1994. I have been to several conferences of his here in Vancouver Canada. Be aware Gary. in 1994 April, his cycle came down bang on. The following day came down even further. As he mentioned on his blog, the trees will be shaken before we head up to new highs. To cause more money in the bond market That is my interpretation. If you have another interpretation, please let me know. Thanks

        I have entered my short at the 1906.50 level via SPXU Very close to a double top. Good luck every one.

        • Dave September 30, 2015, 1:50 pm

          That was the futures at 1906.50 level.

          • Dimitri September 30, 2015, 2:14 pm

            Idem for me

          • peter September 30, 2015, 10:04 pm

            Just back from a meeting. I think ES is now in heading into 5 of 5 up. Big second wave short coming tonight or in the morning, I think. And then likely a big third wave up.

  • Dave September 30, 2015, 12:15 pm

    If you are still a wake Peter, where are we in the wave structure. futures 1898

    • peter September 30, 2015, 12:18 pm

      I’m seeing this as the top of a small second wave … but waiting for confirmation. Looks like 3 up to me. Euro is in the same position the other way, so it would confirm a turn here.

      But they’re not going to make it easy.

      • Dave September 30, 2015, 1:04 pm

        I am out, looking for a short later on today for tomorrow. LOL, What goes up must come. down.

        • peter September 30, 2015, 1:12 pm

          That, to me, is the right attitude. I will attempt to get a post done late tonight. Need to get some sleep first.
          As far as I’m concerned, this entire wave down is an ABC corrective, reinforced by the fact that the ending wave yesterday was in 3 waves.

          And for the DOW, I can’t find a motive count – the waves are all overlapping. And it did a double bottom (corrective).

          The measurements on all the cash indices put the first wave down (motive or corrective, doesn’t matter) at an end. This means we must bounce.

          For the DOW we would have to correct to 16,570 just to correct the mess below that level (and that’s also the 62% mark).

          That’s my take in a nutshell.

        • peter September 30, 2015, 1:16 pm

          I just took a closer look at the euro. It’s in a large (30 min) triangle and it has more to go on the downside the finish the E leg. It travels inversely to the market right now, so that means the market should go up before it comes down.

          Can’t find anything that’s pointing down at the moment…

    • peter September 30, 2015, 12:55 pm

      I’m out. There’s no sense being in this market until there’s a clear signal as to where it’s going. I still maintain we need to go up to at least a second wave to correct this wave down. All of sudden we’re drifting. I think we need to go up.

      • Liz September 30, 2015, 1:39 pm

        There is options expiration today for qrtrly contracts. I guess they want to pin 191 or 190 to wipe out put contracts below those prices.

  • Dave September 30, 2015, 3:42 pm

    PUMP DAY DUMP DAY tomorrow.

    • John September 30, 2015, 3:45 pm

      Maybe it will start in Europe again….Daxi in the Taxi

      goodluck…

    • LIZ September 30, 2015, 4:46 pm

      Dave, why do you think that? What if it’s gogo day tomorrow and Friday is the dump day?

    • Dave September 30, 2015, 6:40 pm

      Clarification…………… PUMP DAY TODAY, DUMP DAY tomorrow.

  • joe September 30, 2015, 5:18 pm

    Peter
    I see your email on the page .
    I intend to send you a copy of the inverted crash pattern I have mentioned
    you may or may not agree yet once you see the overlay I’m sure you will understand why I was so stubborn about Tuesday a must as an up day .
    I’ll try to send it out tonight . it’s straight forward and simple .
    what it implies is higher highs and lower highs and the potential to new all time highs by Oct 12-13fh . for this to happen the market must be heavily short and all the buy stops would be hit. if it’s just a normal rise so be it .but this is not a normal cycle and that’s the only reason I’m staying and holding long until the date of Oct 12-13 . it’s a position trade and I’ll let it swing all over the place intra day as long as my position is showing a profit .that means I’m holding this over the weekend and into the end of next week . regardless of the wave count which will show itself at that point in time .I’ll add to this . full moon low kind of odd yet the puetz window you add 6 weeks to the solar eclipse and look for the full moon .you count 6 days before to 3 days after that full moon as your end point in the cycle . my Oct 12-13 date is what I consider the momentum peak date not the end of the cycle . anyways I’ll send you the chart and I’ll mention Joe in the subject line so you see it’s from me .
    Joe

    • peter September 30, 2015, 6:02 pm

      Hi Joe,
      I have a new post out and my preferred count is still a corrective wave down with the prognosis that we’re going back to the top. So, you could be right on the money. Look forward to the chart. I’ll have to look at it on the weekend.

    • Dave September 30, 2015, 6:49 pm

      Joe, very fascinating with your analyze on the market. What you describe, resonates very strongly with me. There are just 3 days before hand that concerns me thou. Thursday Oct 1 Oct -5 and Oct 6th. From next late day Tuesday the 6th, I will be a a Bull into that same time period. Please keep on posting Joe. Thanks again.

  • peter September 30, 2015, 5:58 pm

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