Update Friday, March 18, Before the Open
We look like we’re completing a very small wave 5. I would be looking for a top this morning and by the looks of things, it may be within the first hour or two, if not immediately.
Each of the waves in futures this morning are tiny and each successive one appears smaller than the last.
Update Thursday, March 17, After the Close
The vigil continues ….
I know this is making us all crazy, but we’re really, really close. Above is a 15 minute chart of SPX. Looking closer at this final wave up, it appears after all to be not quite complete. The wave down in the afternoon is not motive and it seems to me that we have a 5th wave up to go. I note that the third wave up in SPX (wave iii) is actually much shorter than it should have been under the above count (it’s about the same length as the first wave (wave i). It’s actually just a little longer.
So the waves are progressively getting shorter, which often denotes an impending top. I would expect wave 5 then to be short.
I note that IWM (Russell 2000) is one dollar away from its target of $110.00, so this adds credence to the need to a further small rally.
Above is a 4 hour chart of USDCAD. I have been watching this first wave down unfold and last night, it met the target. The wave measures and numbers as a first wave (and A wave in this instance). It has retraced right to the area of the previous fourth. It should now correct to the 62% level in a wave B.
Update: Thursday, March 17, 1PM EST
Above is the 3o minute chart of SP500 so you can see the ending diagonal formation I mentioned a couple of days ago. It’s now almost complete.
Here’s the pattern I’m seeing in ES (60 min chart). This is the ending diagonal I mentioned two days ago. It is just about “played out.” We’re in the final wave. I circled the obvious RSI divergence at the bottom of the chart.
Here’s the 5 minute chart of ES. In the C wave, I can almost count 5 waves up with one more small wave to go. This gives me the target of 2044.
Above is a daily chart of ES courtesy of Mr. Fork (AZ). You can see Andrew’s pitchfork pointing to a turn just about where we are, so this is a different perspective that points to the same result: A turn in the next few hours (I think likely today).
I’ve turned neutral on EURUSD. Here’s the daily chart of EURUSD showing the waves up over the past few days that are not motive so far. I was expecting the motive waves to continue, but this flashes a warning. We may have gotten as much as we can out of this pattern.
I have an issue with the first wave down as it doesn’t look motive to me, but the current look of the second wave forming cautions that we may be changing direction. So I’d watch for a double top with the previous 2nd wave spike and then a turn down.
Update Wednesday, March 16, 1:30 PM EST
Above is the 10 minute chart of the SP500 showing the revised ending diagonal just ahead of the Fed announcement. It’s calling for a spike up to finish the pattern and the entire wave up. Whether it turns down today or tomorrow morning is the big question.
Update Wednesday, March 16, Before the Open
Scary looking charts in futures this morning (if you’re a bull).
I think what we’re going to see today (the most dramatic part is likely to be after the 2PM EST announcement) is a final wave up and a reversal. And by the way, it doesn’t matter what she says. Anything will disappoint.
The reversal may or may not come today, but we’ll certainly see it by tomorrow morning. I will post the EW preferred entry paragraph below here.
This final wave up will end the ending diagonal I mentioned yesterday and all of wave 2 up. We’re heading down into wave 3 and I’ll post a path once I see where we end up at the high.
Here’s an updated trade setup in EURUSD I posted a few days ago.
Above is a 30 minute chart as at this morning of the EURUSD showing the first part of a wave i up and a 4th wave retrace to the 38% level. It should head up when we get the reversal and the path after that is shown. Once it retraces to the smaller wave ii area, it will head up again in a large wave 3.
These moves should mirror the moves in the US market, but reverse (just like a mirror 🙂 ).
We’ve been sitting for a couple of days waiting for the US market to move, as you can see.
NOTE: The only issue I have with it is that this “fourth wave” it’s in now has taken a very long time to form and so this could end up being a corrective wave, so be careful if it moves down from here to any great degree. The larger trend appears to be up. I expected it to turn back up a couple of days ago, though.
First Wave Down – What to Watch For
Tonight we’re dangerously close to a top of a second wave (in some cases, a 4th wave).
Let’s look at the SP500. When we turn over, we should drop like a stone. A good index to look at in terms of what motive looks like is IWM – perfectly formed motive waves.
The first wave down will be in 5 waves and will likely drop to about 1890 SPX (previous 4th wave). After that, we should get a second wave that will retrace in 3 waves to about 1958 (62%). That’s the preferred EW entry point. So don’t feel you have to rush in. There’ll be a much better opportunity at the second wave level than at the top and the risk is substantially reduced.
Update: Tuesday, March 15, 2:15PM EST
Above is the 10 minute chart of the ES (SPX futures). It shows the wave down last night and the things that jumped out at me when I analyzed it to figure out if it’s motive. It kinda has a motive look to it to the untrained eye, but it has a lot of inherent problems.
Elliott used to talk about the “correct look.” He meant that the key corrective retracements (second and fourth waves) have to look balanced. In this case, there’s a very tiny second wave that isn’t “balanced” with the rest of the wave. It’s way too small.
The fourth wave has to retrace 38%. This one hardly moved off the ground.
The third wave always has a motive set of waves within it, but in this case there are obvious second waves missing. When you have a sheer drop after a spike, it usually means it’s not a motive structure.
Finally, the mess at the bottom has no defined 2nd or 4th waves and it’s not an ending diagonal, which has a very particular structure to it. So what this tells me is that it’s a corrective wave.
So … one more time to the top, and then down for good.
Above is the 15 minute chart of the SPX, showing the C wave up and the five wave structure within it, although I haven’t labelled the waves. You can look at the two charts below for all the labelling.
What I see here is another ending diagonal on a much smaller scale. The reason I went looking for this is that I mentioned in comments that the wave up this morning was in 3 waves … everywhere. If we’re going to a new top (or a double top), that would be an ending wave and should be in 5 waves. However, it’s not; we have waves in 3. So, that leaves only one option—an ending diagonal.
And when I backed out the chart, voilá, there it is! So expect a new high in a fifth of a fifth wave, but I can’t give you a target end number. However, when it stops (it shouldn’t go very far), it will end with a dramatic reversal. They always head for the start of the pattern (in this case, 1969 or so).
We have a Fed announcement at noon tomorrow (Wednesday) so I would expect the drama then.
NOTE: Actually, waves in three in a fourth wave create one general option—a triangle. An ending diagonal is a triangle (one of several different forms of triangle). You find them at the very ends of major waves (a 3rd, 5th, or C waves).
Update: Monday, March 14, After the Close
Above is the one minute chart for SPX for March 14 (at the close). The top appears to be in to me.
After five waves up, the trend changes, as I’ve been saying. We appear to be out of “up waves.” 🙂
We traced out an ending diagonal as wave 5 of 5 (the final wave) and we dropped through the lower trendline after completing a 2nd wave. So we’re on track to finish a first wave down, which should drop to the previous 4th (4) before retracing a second wave.
What’s interesting about the last minute drop in SPX is that it stopped right at the 62% level. I always look for clues at the end of the day as to what might happen tomorrow. The clue here is that if ES completes a first wave down tonight, when it retraces a second wave in the morning, it will end at the level the SPX ended at tonight, completely filling any gap that might be otherwise formed.
I don’t know if that will happen, but the possibility is there. There is an option that ES could do a double top tonight, but with the 5th wave seemingly already complete, it should not go up any higher than that.
Breadth and volume were negative today.
IWM (Russell 2000) completed a double top to a second wave today. It looks like it’s already completed a motive first wave down.
Note that EURUSD appears to have turned up. It also completed (or almost so) an ending diagonal. If it continues through the upper trendline, then this would suggest to me that the US indices will continue down from here.
Original Post: Sunday, March 13, 2016
The Larger Count is Down
As I’ve been saying since May 20th of last year, this is a bear market. The larger count is down.
Now, there are still a lot of skeptics—both on Elliott waves and the idea that the market is heading down—that view this blog. It honestly beats me how, with the record I have in forecasting this market, how they can still doubt every single count and be proven wrong over and over again.
However, I guess that’s human nature. It’s why people get slammed every time we fall into a major depression. Elliott waves, analyzed properly, is how the market moves. Coupled with Andy Pancholi’s cycles analysis (the best I’ve seen anywhere), you have the holy grail in trading. The major cycle turn date coming up is March 14/15.
I’m in the midst of reading “The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking” by Philip J. Anderson. I’ll get it added to my reading list before the weekend is done. It’s a fabulous book that documents the ups and downs of the American economy from the early 1800s through about 2007. It’s an eye-opener in terms of the role of inflation, deflation, and real estate to any “free” economy.
Fiat currency, credit expansion, and fractional reserve banking are, of course, the biggest culprits leading to an eventual lack of confidence and ensuing crash. This pattern happened over and over in the 1980s and into the early 20th century. We just never learn.
Well, here we are again. But this time, we have the largest credit expansion in the history of the world. Coupled with a major cycle downturn, the forecast is bleak. (I have a video ready to mount on “Global Cooling” which explains the larger climate cycles and why we should be concerned about this one. Look for it later today or Monday.) So far, it’s on Youtube only.
I have an interview coming up in a week or so on trunews.com on this subject and I’ll update you when we get a little closer.
The best TV right now is the US election. If you think the political landscape in the U.S. is particularly negative now, just wait a few months … the coming downturn should change just about everything.
We’re about to top again and this time, there will be no question as to where the markets are headed. However, there are those who will expect a turnaround and a new high right to the bottom. It happens every single crash cycle.
Time to start getting prepared …
Here’s a video overview of the market for Monday, March 14:
Market Report for March 14
|Make sure you zoom the video to full size with frame expander (arrows) in the bottom right hand corner and also set the quality to as high as your web connection allows. This is an HD quality video so the best viewing is at that level.|
Above is the one hour chart of the SP500 showing the path from the top of the larger second wave on December 3 to the top of this smaller second wave on Friday. Five waves marks are trend change and we’re almost there. The most recent set of five waves makes up the C wave of an ABC corrective pattern that will send the markets to new lows.
We’re not quite finished. We have a small 4th and 5th wave of the 5th to complete (likely over the next few days) and then down we go.
Above is a 5 minute (zoomed in) chart of the SP500 showing the structure of this final 5th wave. We’re finishing the fifth of that wave and the waves themselves are tiny. The end is very close.
The fibonacci tool shows the projected length of the last wave up. Now, this will depend on the depth of the 4th wave drop which will help determine where the final top tick end up. On the top chart, you can see there’s a previous wave top at 2021.94, which is exactly where this wave ended up on Friday. So the market might be signalling that an up and down wave will reach this same position and then turn over. We’ll have to wait and see.
Here’s the one hour chart of EURUSD. I’ve drawn in the projected path. I would expect to see the completion of wave i (above) as the US market traces out a fourth wave and then the second wave (wave ii) in EURUSD to 1.10691 as the US market traces out its fifth wave.
This event would place them both at the beginning of third waves. Third waves are “no where to hide waves.” Either asset will would be a great opportunity.
Have a great week! It will be a volatile one.
SPX REACHED 2049.83 I think we should turn any minute now
One more small wave up to go as part of the final 5th, I think.
You got it now Peter :-))
Let us hope that will be the end !
The count is complete. So it should turn somewhere around here.
Excellent work, btw, Mr. Fork!
It is too early to celebrate Peter … this move is so strong … not even the fork can stop it where I want .
So we have to wait bit more .. unfortunately
The count is complete. Done.
In EW, we wait for one motive wave down and then a 3 waves up to about 62% for an entry.
If it goes up any more, there’s something REALLY WRONG with my count.
So far, this is a textbook first wave down is ES and SPX.
I think in ES, we need one more tiny little wave to complete this fifth, but I only gave the market until 11:30 EST, so it had better hurry up. 🙂
Peter–Prechter believes we may be completing wave D of a triangle, wave E to follow then new all time highs to complete Wave 5 up. Gary
yeah, been up and down that to death. Go, Bob, go …
In other words, imho, it’s a really remote possibility. I’ve spent about 4 hours trying to make it work from an EW perspective and I simply can’t do it.
Peter—When perma bears like Prechter and Steve Peutz are looking up I get really nervous. I agree with your count. Gary
Steve is looking for a new high? I didn’t know that …
Peter–I am not sure he is looking for new highs….just up. Do you get his newsletter? I was taken aback in his latest because of his more optimistic stance. Gary
No, I didn’t know he had one. I have a video interview that I did with him over Skype about a year ago, maybe longer, that I never did anything with. I’ll have to do something with it soon. I’ll go looking for his newsletter.
Peter–Would you like me to email you a copy to your personal email? Gary
That would be very thoughtful. peter@ the website address.
Both the 5/20 high as the 8/24 give 3/21 in the squared number system. According to Gann, squared numbers were not just a timing tool, is was the cause of market moves.
3/21 is also 7 weeks from the major 2/1 date. 7 weeks is condsidered the death zone.
3/27 will be 23 squared from the oct 14 low.
Monday the high.
9 squared is also very important. 3/19 will be 81 days from the major 12/29 high.
IWM just hit the target … exactly.
Prechter should pay Peter for a subscription… That is how it is Gary. 😉
This second wave up in ES and SPX seems to have launched them into a third wave down. We’ll wait to see a new low to confirm it.
This new low helps to confirm a third wave of the first down. Hopefully, we continue to see follow through. ES should get down to 2033 with this wave.
More likely 2027 for ES as a bottom of this wave.
we may have a top in finally
Nice motive waves. First stop for SPX is likely 2040.
it counts as 5 down on the 5 minute cash dow chart .
see you monday 🙂
I sure hope so if W.S. declines Europe wil have a big hit I can sense it in the air,the way the Dax dropped on Thursday was very clear.
I also follow Zigzag on twitter read all his messages back till August he has a nice trackrecord..
With ES, the fourth wave travelled back into the area of the first wave, warning that we may not be done. This could be a final fourth wave with a double top coming.
But not on the cash…does that make a difference?
No … you get one of them to screw up, and if affects everything. They all travel in tandem and you can’t have one with bad count.
So I’m going to assume Sunday is going to clean everything up and we head down Monday morning. I would prefer to see a double top. It’s rare to see a spiked top on such an important end wave.
ES also came down to the previous fourth exactly in 3 waves, which was also a subtle warning.
The other thing that could happen is that we could just correct the bottom part of the wave and end up turning at the second wave, to create a double pronged second wave, but I think that less likely.
We’ve lost all our downward momentum. I’d want to see it healthy for a third wave.
A little lesson in EW. The fourth wave is always key. If it travels into the area of the first wave, it nullifies the count and you end up with a wave down in 3 waves, which is what we have. However, if wave 4 heads down a new low, then you have 5 waves and that’s a motive wave; it confirms a new trend.
We’re almost there.
On the other side of the coin, on the upside, we obviously have 5 waves up, but that would mean it’s the top of wave 3 and we need a fourth and fifth wave to complete it.
That appears to be where we stand. I think the top is in, but we’re going to have to wait a little longer for the prize.
There’s the attempt for a double top Peter as if a magic wand was waved at 3 pm.
It is day 26 for both 11/3/15 and 3/18/16 from their respective pivot lows. If Feb/Mar and Oct/Nov symmetry continues then it’s very interesting the downtrend hits Andre’s 3/20, 21, 23 dates.
I’m watching it. I will also share that as we get closer to a top, the waves down tend to look more and more motive. Today was a perfect first wave in SPX and the rest of it looked motive. The only problem was follow-through.
So I know we’re really close. If we top here before the end of the day, I don’t know what we do Sunday. Hang around up here? Hmmm. Because we won’t do a first wave down on a Sunday. It just creates a gap that has to be filled.
So … we’ll see what happens.
I guess it will happen around 3:30 pm edt.
There’s also the option that we could get a full wave down in a half hour. The last three sessions have seen drops. I expect the first wave down to be a lot less tentative than the one today.
Im glad i left , more complications with the dow spx and ndx
the is leading the rally spx a little weaker and ndx the weakest ?
i meant to say the dow is leading spx a little weaker and ndx the weakest ?
Trying to make sense of it all.
Next week we’ll see a lunar eclipse close to apogee. This is a significant event. This is confirmed by the weekly sqr9 analysis I gave above; the straight line in the sqr9 says the week of 3/21 is significant. Next, we see the sun at 75 degrees on the outer planet average, the 209 angle (7/11!) giving a monthly extreme and the S&P week timing giving the last last date this month. Lastly; the average apogee/perigee cycle gives an inversion in March as did lunar declination. These are Multi month cycles.
Combined this says something is about to change.
But we are still under the spell of the 144-squared 4/10 timing.
360 td from the significant 10/15/14 low gives 3/22. This should be a low. The low tides give a low on Wednesday (full moon!). This is confirmed by an inversion in radioflux.
The squared number system should be taken seriously. Yesterday I showed that both 5/20 as 8/24 give 3/21. This means those two line cross; this makes them very strong.
So, one scenario is a high on Monday and a low on Wednesday.
What will happen next? The tidal amplitudes support an upmove into month end. This spiral date system (based on historical turns) gives 3/23 and 4/1. So this appears to be one cycle.
The question is : will it be a lower high or a new high? The overall trend is down; think we can agree on that. But we also know that things will get really messy in April.
Mercury velocity is up into 3/29 which should be positive for markets.
1) something fundamental is changing next week
2) Monday and Wednesday will be turn days.
3) overall trend is down.
I think volatility will start to rise. But real capitulation may take some weeks.
Just remember : 10/4 is a line in the sand. This is confirmed by by squared number timing on 5/20 (10/8). But the trend is weakening by the day so this date could be the real capitulation point.
For now this is the best I can do.
Typo: squared number timing 4/8
Typo typo 8/4
3/17 is a squared number on 10/11/2007 And 4/10 is a squared number on the 2000 high. Two very relevant dates.
Obviously, the other scenario is a low on Wednesday, a pull up into the weekend (long weekend- usually bullish) and a crsah into 4/10 -ish.
Bayer rule 32 gives a high 3/29, based on the 1/12 high. This gives support to the analysis above, a pull back into the end of month before we turn down again.
More analysis tomorrow. Really eager to learn what Peter sees now 😉
12/29 + 90 = 3/29 fwiw.
Yet another possibility is that Monday will show a low and we will pull back into the full moon. This would better fit. After a low 3/26-ish a test up into the strong 3/30 period.
As 3/17 and 3/18 were very strong dates the down trend may have already begun. Wednesday could show a lower high.
Just some thoughts.
well, i tried the last couple of months to implement a for me new system based on financial astrology. Not so easy, as i know only a piece of astrology and i’m absolutely not an astrologer.
I’m still learning but you also have to go “live”. So if the system is good and i interpret it ok than the first week of april will end with a price below 1980. W’ll see and of course no advice to do “strange things”.
Here is something i deal with in terms of the larger wave count .
first of all no doubt the 2009 lows were the significant lows in the usa stock markets.
here is what im asking though and ill keep it simple then ill explain why it concerns me
all i ask for is an open mind and not hey that’s wrong .
when looking at a triangle formation do you start your count at point E ?
or the bottom of the triangle ?
The late George Lindsay was the most consistent market timer in our time .
His methods are based on basic advances in terms of time as well as basic declines
and he used a pattern he called the 3 peaks domed house pattern .
the 3 peaks domed house pattern is very similar to Elliott wave but not
the same .
as for declines and advances .
He stated that from every major stock market peak you look for a major
low 12 years 3 months to 12 years 8 months from the major peak.
1919 targets the 1932 low
1929 targets a low in 1949
1966 targets 1978
im keeping this simple .
the march and sept 2000 highs ( nasdaq , spx , nya )
march 2000 plus 12 years 8 months = nov 2012
Aug 2000 plus 12 years 3 months = nov 2012
benner business cycle called for a low in the year 2011 .
To add to this ill quote Robert Prechter . ( not word for word )
Back in early 2000 prechter was calling for a very long sideways
stock market in what he thought would become a triangle formation .
So my question is this . Obviously the 2009 lows count as a clear cut
ABC decline yet was that the true cycle low ? from a historical perspective ?
Also ill add to George Lindsay’s work major tops can be called for by
measuring forward 15 years roughly from major bottoms .
we have 2 major bottoms , one in 2002 ( possibly even 2001 crash low )
and the 2009 low .
using the 2001 low plus 15 years ( its rough ) some type of strong decline
would be in effect in late 2016 .
using the 2002 low we would be looking for a strong decline in late 2017 .
additionally there is another model her used for calling tops and bottoms
7 years low to low followed by 8 years low to high ( rough times for the years
not actual dates ( pin point dates are in his work im just not touching it yet )
2001-2002 plus 8 years is 2008-2009 low .
2002 plus 7 years is 2009 plus 8 years is 2017
2002 plus 15 years is 2017 .
additionally the 2000 year plus 12 years 3 months targeted nov 2012 for a significant low .
July-Oct 2007 ? plus 12 years 3 months to 12 years 8 months
targets late 2019-early 2020 for a significant bottom .
So for me when i look at this entire bull market from the 2009 lows to date
i must also include the bull market from 2011 to date as well as the
bull market from 2012 to date .
the benner business cycle has its next peak do in the year 2018 .
that model has been extremely accurate for the past 90 plus years .
To Summaries all of this .
If it turns out that both prechter’s wave count back in the year 2000 was
correct and the benner business model proves true ( a 2018 high )
George Lindsay’s historical time counts hold true ( they have a long history )
Then where are we today in terms of the wave count ?
Lastly i ask myself ( i use a 36 trade day chart , 36 daily bars = 1 bar )
i think a quarterly chart of the Dow going back to the 1932 lows would
be the best approach to nailing the larger wave count .
for me its the 36 trade chart and the Lindsay 3 peaks domed house pattern
which as i noted prior its very similar to an Elliot wave count .
The count is not complete as of today which implies higher prices
the decline that follows though will be brutal .
The above was the very broad picture .
Very short term its about the trend from march 23 to april 7-11th
which can be a very strong decline .
Best count if i include all the index’s is the move from the jan 2016 lows
to date is that a 4th wave completed in jan or feb 2016 and what we are
seeing now is wave i of the next higher degree of a bull market
which will last into late 2017 to mid 2018 . from this peak we will
go into a decade long decline lasting into probably the 2030’s
( 12 years 3 months to 12 years 8 months from the 2017-2018 highs )
New post up: https://worldcyclesinstitute.com/when-bears-roll-over/
This website is for educational purposes relating to Elliott Wave and natural cycles. I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. Due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer questions that relate to my area of expertise.
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