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The Penultimate Wave

On Being Bearish (and personal attacks)

I seem to get pulled back into the question of decency on this site, which I honestly find to be a huge distraction, and keeps pushing me to do what I’ve been told is the intelligent decision and shut down the comments area of the free blog. But while it’s up and operating, here’s the rule: No personal attacks. You can be a bull or bear or a “sideways” advocate. I don’t care. But there’s no need to personally attack each other over it.

I consider this site an extension of my home. It’s an open invitation, but I happen to believe respect is important. At 67, perhaps that’s considered “old world.” So be it. I would like intelligent conversation, which can result in differing opinions. But, I believe you can have disagreements and still be respectful.

In the process of attempting to uphold this simple rule, I’ve been accused of all kinds of things, particularly of being a perennial bear. Let me be quite clear about that accusation:

It’s true. I am a bear!

In fact, if I could figure out how to be more bearish, I would be. It’s actually the whole point of all my writing here. But I don’t care if you’re on the other side of the market. However, I can’t be, because the work that I do tells me otherwise.

You see, I practice the Elliott Wave Principle. Since 2009, the US indices have been in a corrective wave. That’s bearish. That’s what the wave structure tells me. In fact, every single asset I cover is in a corrective wave (and has been for a very long time). I would be an extremely inept EW analyst if I didn’t pay attention to that fact. Believe me, there are lots of them out there. I fight that fact every day.

You might think I’m stubborn. In terms of Elliott Wave, you’d be absolutely correct! I’m also controversial, as a result. After over fifty years of a chronic health condition and building two million dollar plus businesses in spite of it, sticks, stones, and words don’t affect me all that much anymore. I haven’t seen everything, but I’ve seen a lot.

I also lost one of those businesses due to a self-styled “investment banker” who I believed. That was a big mistake and I ended up having to close down a million dollar business, and subsequently completely lost my self-esteem. Over time, I got it back, but I’ve developed a very thick skin, as a result.

Although I eventually re-built that business, I eventually lost interest in the corporate television profession (you can never really “go back” to what you had), and got the “market bug.” Through my research (after a few years), I latched onto Elliott Wave Theory done badly by Elliott Wave International. After getting burned after the 2008 recession by those bad calls, I determined that I would become more proficient in EW analysis than my contemporaries. It takes strict adherence to the key principles, but there are more rules that I’ve learned simply through studying EW and the market over 40 hours a week for several years. Over the past ten years, that’s slightly over 20k hours.

Over time, I’ve discovered a number of errors in the Elliott Wave Principle book—that’s not a criticism; after all, it’s an amazing piece of work. But the errors don’t help the EW cause.

As a professional speaker, I’m well aware of the adage, “Speak about what makes you crazy.” This site is a result of that saying.

To that end, this weekend I’m sharing (which was pre-planned) the wave down in 2007-9 that set me off to be as precise and correct in Elliott Wave analysis as I can be. Beat me up for it, but it’s proven to be quite profitable.

EW — Corrective Threes and Impulsive Fives

One of the core elements of the Elliott Wave Principle is understanding the role of “corrective” versus “impulsive” wave structures. Mastering this aspect of EW Theory is key to dramatically lowering risk in any market. Many EW analysis get this simple principle wrong. It’s this error that is without doubt the most frequent issue with Elliott Wave analysis—you must develop an eye for patterns and be as objective as possible in your approach to the market. Any bias invariably changes the count (subconsciously).

The concept of three vs. five is itself a simple one: a three wave structure will eventually completely retrace: Three wave structure is corrective.

A five wave structure, on the other hand, in most cases, means there’s a B wave correction coming (a partial retrace) and then another wave following in same direction as the original wave—a C wave.

Above is the daily chart of the SP500 showing a seven year period from 2005 through 2012—what’s been referred to as “The Great Recession.” (click to enlarge)

What you’re seeing here is the wave down from 2007 that EWI (and others) still classify as an impulsive wave. It is not, it’s corrective. That means it will fully retrace to the upside. Because of that inept analysis, I lost quite a bit of money (I was not analyzing EW at that time, but it became “the last straw”). Lesson: Do your own research, form your own opinion. I tell my subscribers to have their own system and use my analysis as confirmation (or not).

I’ve been clear from the very start that unless the market is in position that makes the count dubious, I will take a position, either bearish or bullish, unlike others who tell you it will either go up or down (with two opposing counts). I’m a trader. I can’t trade that kind of nebulous, indecisive guidance.

In the chart above, to the trained eye, the look of the wave down alone is enough to flash warning lights. The large second wave is far too large relative to the fourth wave. It’s “top-heavy.” The look is not correct for an impulsive wave. It looks like a “three.” Looking under the hood confirms it:

Above is the daily chart of the SP500 (click to enlarge) spanning the period of mid-2007 (the top of the bearish wave down) to mid-2009 (a few months after the wave bottom. What’s important here are the purple letters. This is a zigzag. There’s a purple A wave down of five waves, then a purple B wave in three waves, and finally a purple C wave that is exactly 2.618 X the length of the A wave, a typical length for an extended C wave. There are no fourth and fifth waves.

It was a corrective wave, which means it should complete retrace. It did, but most people got it wrong.

This is the importance of the three wave versus five wave count and why it’s so important to look at sub waves and be exceptionally stubborn in the application of the Elliott Wave Principle.  I know the powers that be still think the wave down is impulsive. Not my problem; I know better.

A Higher Tide Floats All Boats

Whenever we get close to a major top in ES (emini futures), the comments start to flow predicting a top (or not). Usually these comments seem to come from those fixated one one index—the SP500. But, the market actually consists of more than one index, and the driver of the entire thing is the US dollar (the reserve currency).

I have always maintained that once one index tops, they all have to (so that they stay in sync). This is a “market rule.”

But it’s more than this that keeps the SP500 from not topping until the others top. The next wave down will have to start with five waves—across all US indices. So to get to the point where that can happen, the indices all need a “fresh start”—in other words, a new high.

The key, as I preach over and over again, is to watch the entire market, certainly indices that are related to each other. Both the SPX and DOW are subsets of the NYSE. They move more or less together. The wave structures have to be correct in order for the next wave down to start.

In all US indices, we appear to have two more subwaves left to go—one down, one up. The NYSE is the one to watch as it’s the only one left not at a new high.

Above is the hourly chart of the NYSE Composite index. It’s what I call the “straggler” in terms of the US market major indices. All the others sub-indexes have now reached a new high (DOW, SPX, RUT, IMW, etc.). Even the Nasdaq exchange indices are at new highs. But ES (SPX futures) and the NYSE are not. However, they’re very close and will both reach their tops after a fourth sub wave down and a final wave to a new high.

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The real deal …

‘Educational, insightful and thorough market analysis for all levels of traders. It’s Elliott Wave at its best….Peter Temple is the real deal’ —SM

Have not had a losing week …

I have been with Peter almost a year. The only thing that matters is have I made money with his service. I think I have finally turned the corner using Peter’s EW. I have not had a losing week in the last 5 months. Thanks Peter, for your amazing amount of hard work. —RW

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Last couple of years, I subscribed to several ‘market traders’. You are by far the best of them and the personal contact is awesome. Daily and daily updates are very well written! Besides your expertise in EW, I also like your cycles analysis. Best investment I ever made! —JL

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Get an upper hand in trading …

Seeing all the different currency pairs and the wave structures and hearing you explain why this has to do that on a nightly bases gives one a upper hand when trading. Elliott Wave applies to all stock and indices and can be applied to any candlestick chart.

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Tops in your field …

You are tops in your field.  Tried to follow Elliot Wave international for years.  They were always behind the market.  After discovering you, I perceive that you are an expert in reading the waves, which puts you way ahead of the rest of your peers. And you can read the Waves like you are reading tomorrow’s financial section.  I pray you stay healthy.  —DZ

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The Market This Week

Here's the latest daily chart of ES (emini futures)

Above is the daily chart of ES (click to enlarge, as with any of my charts).

There have been no material changes to my prognosis. We are at the high. I expect this final wave to breach the previous high for the final time.

We're now down to hourly charts for all the action. It's been a day trading environment for the past few months.

Volume: Volume has tanked in ES, which is a well-documented phenomenon that accompanies ending diagonals at the top of a market. RSI is showing the expected divergence.

Summary: The count is full for the US market in general, except for small subwaves that form the balance of a motive set of waves in SPX and some other major US indices. ES and NQ (emini futures of SPX and NDX) are tracing out ending diagonals. This weekend we should turn down into a fourth wave and then eventually up to a new high ... and we're done. Based upon measurements within the ending diagonal, I'm looking at 2620ish in ES as the potential final high (although the final wave could extend or compress).

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Here's the latest 60 MIN chart of ES (emini futures):

Above is the 60 minute chart of ES (click to enlarge). (commentary reserved for Trader's Gold subscribers)

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Trader's Gold Subscribers get a comprehensive view of the market, including hourly (and even smaller timeframes, when appropriate) on a daily basis. They also receive updates through the comments area. I provide only the daily timeframe for the free blog, as a "snapshot" of where the market currently trades and the next move on a weekly basis.

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Sign up for: The Chart Show

Next Date: Thursday, December 7 at 1:00 pm EST (US market time)

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The Chart Show is a one hour webinar in which Peter Temple provides the Elliott Wave analysis in real time for the US market, gold, silver, oil, major USD currency pairs, and more. You won't find a more accurate or comprehensive market prediction anywhere for this price.

Get caught up on the market from an Elliott Wave perspective. You’ll also get Andy Pancholi cycle turn dates for the SP500 for the balance of the current month. There’ll be a Q&A session during and at the end of the webinar and the possibility (depending on time) of taking requests.

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{ 243 comments… add one }
  • luri November 30, 2017, 8:21 am
  • Verne November 30, 2017, 8:51 am

    Like the Nasdaq, the initial move down will probably tag the lower B band. It is the nature of waves down after weeks of distribution to incinerate those gains in very short order. The divergent indicators have all been pointing to this but who pays any attention in a mania?! 🙂

    • luri November 30, 2017, 8:58 am

      verne – my good man – a “mania” requires ……….. an manic amount of “volume”…..

      absent the volume – it is just another “pump and dump” by the “sharks”……..!

      https://invst.ly/5znjc

      • Verne November 30, 2017, 9:53 am

        True. They are already all in. So yes, this recent ramp on low volume is very likely courtesy of our CB friends. Easy come, easy go…! 🙂

  • luri November 30, 2017, 9:39 am

    Liz,
    are you out there?? …………..numbers liz…………..”numbers”…………..

    3/6/2009 Low – 666.79 spx/es
    4 x 666 = 2664 ***** this could very well be the target of the “market” …[cough]…

    https://invst.ly/5zo5f

    • Verne November 30, 2017, 9:54 am

      Why not 2666?! 🙂

      • luri November 30, 2017, 10:41 am

        because 666 x 4 = 2664………..

        • Verne November 30, 2017, 12:19 pm

          Yes, but that number is not quite as “devilish”… 🙂

    • LizH November 30, 2017, 10:25 am

      Lol Luri. Your 2664, if you add 2&4, you get 6. So you get 666. 🙂 Have you seen the IYT bounce? Crazy right? I’ll tell you some more stuff later after hours.

      • LizH November 30, 2017, 12:22 pm

        JPM 106.66 swing high?

  • Verne November 30, 2017, 9:56 am

    Soooo…when do you think they will take a sledge to the wedge?! Hyuk! 🙂

  • Charles November 30, 2017, 10:53 am

    When is @ES gong to stop? Incredible, just incredible.

  • Verne November 30, 2017, 10:58 am

    The interesting thing is If VIX is behaving like this during a parabolic rise in the indices, what is it going to do when they retrace to the downside??!!
    Is this a cover for the short vol trade unwind?!

  • nick timpa November 30, 2017, 1:04 pm

    Well Mr. Peter , you were waiting on NYSE to make a new high,, You got it !!
    Please give us a good report this week end, [as you always do].. I think you will load the wagon this week end…I am ready …Nick ..

    • luri November 30, 2017, 1:11 pm

      https://invst.ly/5zr4-

      nick, short term chart of nya

      • nick December 1, 2017, 5:39 am

        Thank you luri , very nice

    • Peter Temple November 30, 2017, 1:11 pm

      Potential top in place for the Nasdaq and I see 5 waves down at small degree for ES/SPX. It might also be the final small fourth wave in SPX. So we might need a slight new high and then down tomorrow.

    • Peter Temple November 30, 2017, 1:32 pm

      Been a long haul for you and me. You were here from the very start. 🙂
      And now we’re finally looking at the top.

      • nick December 1, 2017, 5:41 am

        Yes Sir,, Long haul indeed ..nick

  • Verne November 30, 2017, 1:38 pm

    Yep. Momentum seemed more like a third wave so I am expecting one last high…
    VIX divergence says terminal….

    • Verne November 30, 2017, 1:50 pm

      I don’t ever remember feeling this foolish on cashing in a profitable long volatility trade. I cashed out half yesterday in anticipation of a move back below ten and instead it takes off like a bat out of you know where as the market also rockets to all time highs. Never seen anything quite like it. I have a feeling I am going wish I had stayed put, so to speak….it closed below 200 dmsa but that could change soon….

    • luri November 30, 2017, 2:43 pm

      verne,

      a terminal thrust – otherwise known as an “exhaustion” thrust – is what today felt like. There was more than just “end of month” pump and dump rigging from the sharks on the Wall…….. it felt like “capitulation”………

      take a look at the short term NYA – the waves are much more concise.
      https://invst.ly/5zs4d

      • Peter Temple November 30, 2017, 2:48 pm

        luri,
        Your count is slightly incorrect. What you have as 4 is actually 4th of the third. Extended thirds have two parts to them visually, but actually 5 waves within them. And your iii is most likely the larger fourth. So we look like we’ve got just a small 5th up of the fifth of the fifth. We should get there by the morning, I think.

        And it measures properly. The third wave should be 2.168 X wave 1 in this case. That always helps find where the top of three is.

        • luri November 30, 2017, 3:34 pm

          thanks peter!!!!

          you mean as such – https://invst.ly/5zsoi

          • luri November 30, 2017, 3:57 pm

            my question to you peter,

            is how the bejesus, does this small FINAL subwave of the NYA – extend at wave 3?? i mean ‘price exhaustion’ must mean something????

          • Peter Temple November 30, 2017, 4:03 pm

            I don’t understand the question. Did you get the chart I sent? I did it of SPX, but it relates.

          • Verne November 30, 2017, 4:01 pm

            That’s the way, uh huh, uh huh…! 🙂

          • luri November 30, 2017, 4:34 pm

            peter,

            yes, i got the chart. thank you greatly – and yes, i understand now…..mucho gracias!!

            and yes, you are correct…..my question was poorly phrased — i suppose i was ‘venting’ more than asking a question, as i failed to anticipate an “extended” third could occur in the subwaves of the final move to the top……….

          • Peter Temple November 30, 2017, 4:37 pm

            It can, but they’re rare, although we’ve had a bunch of them along the way. I sent it again, as I actually mislabelled it. I moved iii/iv one bump—that’s a deep dive EW technical term—Not to be confused with doing the bump (which is either a term from the 70s, or a Weinstein move).

          • Verne November 30, 2017, 5:19 pm

            So far as Wienstein goes, you might want to change that “bump”, to the similar word that starts with ” H”, and similarly rhymes with “rump”…. 😀

  • luri November 30, 2017, 3:24 pm

    Liz – this is for you………. “cause you are my compatriot in “numbers crime”………. everyone else – NO LOOKING!!!!! …….verne – i see you “peeking”…… stop it right NOW!

    ok – so LIZ, my numbers “spidey” senses went off in 2011. For 3 consecutive trading days at the beginning of April 1/4/5 [a friday/mon/tues] – we had 3 identical closes of 1332 in the spx.

    as you know 1332 is 666 x 2………. i had never seen that before, 3 identical consecutive closes…………..hmm…… I checked, and low and behold it was the very first time that had occurred. I would have left that to “random” chance, if it wasn’t for the following week, the same thing occurred but with 1314. Three consecutive closes…….

    so we have 3 consecutive closes of a ‘666 multiple – 1332’, AND three consecutive closes of ‘PI – 3.14’……………..hmmm…………….very strange indeed?…………so i did a little digging…….and i was forced to dig into “dark places”……….the kind of places where one must wear “sunglasses at night”……. [uh huh! – very stanley kubrick]……..

    so here is a snapshot of what i gleaned…………

    666 symbolic number……………314 symbolic number…………….212 symbolic number…….as is [911 and 111, but that comes later]

    212 so happens to be the boiling point of water in farenheit. [fyi – This one was symbolic for the “return of souls” back to the sun……………..cough………hmmm otherwise known as “sacrifice”]

    in terms of “number” connections – it so happens that 666 / 3.14 = 212………………

    hmmm….Liz should i stop???………am i throwing around too many numbers?? this number game is more akin to “eating chocolate cake on your “diet” day, than anything else………. so tell me if you want me to continue, and i will……….

  • Verne November 30, 2017, 5:37 pm

    Looks like we are getting a penultimate fourth wave in futures…

  • Verne November 30, 2017, 6:36 pm

    Futures price now clearly breaching last EW channel. At the very least a higher degree correction underway…maybe more?

  • Ed December 1, 2017, 6:25 am

    Joe,

    Here we are at your December 1-4 time period…From what I have been able to find we have the Mars-Uranus synodic cycle on Saturday. That is then followed by a SuperMoon and Mercury Retrograde on Sunday. You and others have peaked my interest in planetary influences on the markets.

    Are the above three things a portion of why this time period catches your attention?
    Not looking for trading or investment advice. Your mere mention of this time period back in July has my attention.

    Any additional insight by you or others would be appreciated!

  • Verne December 1, 2017, 9:21 am

    Wow! Vol trades have literally EXPLODED!
    What’s up?!

  • luri December 1, 2017, 9:28 am

    verne,

    was that IT?……. “it”………………. did we have a “failed” final fifth?https://invst.ly/5-281

    • luri December 1, 2017, 10:00 am

      crickets…………………. hmmm………this must be “ungood”!

      • luri December 1, 2017, 10:13 am

        5 waves down – 61.8% 3 waves up…….. next a w3?

        • Verne December 1, 2017, 10:21 am

          That would be for me confirmation of the impulse down underway…
          Did I cash out too soon?!! lol! 🙂

          • luri December 1, 2017, 10:32 am

            verne,

            w1 “potential” was a 50 pt move in the ES in a matter of minutes…. w2 is done “potential”……. w3, …..1.618% extension of w1 = 2577,,,……. 2.618% extension of w1 = 2531

            ………”are you READY TO ROCK” verne……………… A-R-E you READY TO ROCK!!!……………… heheee.

          • Verne December 1, 2017, 10:52 am

            Yep. I think the ferocity with which this coming bear is going to devour the unprepared is going to be something to behold. I always thought the break-down would come in overnight futures so it is really stunning to see futures plunging during the cash session…not at all what I expected…

      • Verne December 1, 2017, 10:13 am

        Not sure. The fact that EWI is calling a top is making me very nervous, although that was quite a move down. If it was wave one of an initial impulse we should know soon enough….

        • Dimitri December 1, 2017, 10:44 am

          Verne,
          even the broken clocks should show the correct time twice per day

          • Verne December 1, 2017, 10:48 am

            Quite right Dimitri…quite right…lol! 🙂

  • Vik December 1, 2017, 9:50 am

    Vol is definitely starting to edge higher even as we are 1% from the all time top. Too many weak longs on the back of this tax thing. I would still want to see formation of 1-2-1-2 sequence to put positions on the short side…

  • LizH December 1, 2017, 10:14 am
    • luri December 1, 2017, 10:21 am

      hey liz, i will continue with the number story later this afternoon……. jpm…….hmm

      • Verne December 1, 2017, 10:50 am

        I promise I would be “dropping any eaves!” as Samwise Gamgee protested…! 🙂

  • luri December 1, 2017, 10:59 am

    a look @ “potential”???….. we are looking for confirmation……

    https://invst.ly/5-3iu

  • Verne December 1, 2017, 11:29 am

    The move down could have been the C wave of a Zig Zag for a small wave four. I think one more wave up.
    When this beast turns there will be no meandering…of that I am fairly certain…we just got a small taste this morning of what is on the menu…

    • luri December 1, 2017, 11:42 am

      my thoughts exactly!!…..

      • Verne December 1, 2017, 11:56 am

        I took a nice haul on some SVXY 115strike puts this morning.
        I have an 18 wheeler standing by for another favorable entry into puts two weeks out. There is still a lot of meat left on them thar’ bones! 🙂

  • kelsen December 1, 2017, 12:18 pm

    Calm down people. It’s going to 2740.

    • Verne December 1, 2017, 12:29 pm

      Actually 2773 if we are yet to complete a minor five to the upside… 🙂

  • kelsen December 1, 2017, 12:49 pm

    We will see, but I don’t like your chances.
    Good luck everyone.

    • Verne December 1, 2017, 1:14 pm

      Not really a matter of chances, It is the expected fib move based on completion of a minor five to the upside and my bullish wave count…

  • Verne December 1, 2017, 1:12 pm

    The argument for another wave higher assumes that we now have an interim bottom with price sitting above upper B bands. I have seen all kinds of incredible extremes in this market but never a situation like that, namely a price reversal with price not seeing any kind of reversion from an already existing extreme. I think this market is a very dangerous place right now for the complacent. Just my two….

  • kelsen December 1, 2017, 1:23 pm

    And my price is calculated using squaring methods both off the 2007 high and the 2009 low. Moreover, it captured many off the pivots along the way as well.
    But, I concede there could well be some lost motion at the end of this multi-year bull rally. Especially, now it has gone parabolic.

    • Verne December 1, 2017, 1:55 pm

      In the larger picture, those price points differences are trivial imho… 🙂

    • Peter G December 1, 2017, 2:12 pm

      “…captured many of the pivots along the way…” Build up my confidence, Kelsen, and please give me a few examples of the many “captured…along the way…”

      • LizH December 1, 2017, 2:29 pm

        ^^ Agree. Kelsen, pls. share your pivots. 🙂

    • Mike Caruana December 1, 2017, 5:40 pm

      Squaring off the 2009 low of 666.80:
      I’ll skip the whole beginning. Basically, every multiple of 45° is a pivot,, when you get to where we are now, the 180 and 360 multiples are prominent. ie:
      3600° = 2099.70
      3960° =2286.99
      4140°=2383.63
      4320°=2482.28
      4500° = 2582.92
      4545°=2608.40
      4590°=2633.99
      4635°=2659.72
      4680°=2685.57
      4725°=2711.54
      If we pass it, I’ll give the rest. I have looked at the charts and noticed that some of the tops come one 45° rotation past a major multiple of 180 or 360. 4680 was the biggest we past. 4860° is 2790 and 5040 is 2896.85

      There are ways to confirm, such as squaring off further pivots out besides 666.80 low.

      • Mike Caruana December 1, 2017, 6:00 pm

        Squares of the 1991.68 low:
        360° = 2174.19
        540° = 2268.45
        720° = 2364.70
        900°=2462.96
        1080°=2563.22
        1260°=2665.48
        1305°=2691.35
        1350°=2717.35
        1440°=2769.73
        1800°=2984.24

      • Mike Caruana December 1, 2017, 6:30 pm

        Must point out these two from the 666 low (posted above):
        4635°=2659.72 — Close to yesterday’s high.
        4680°=2685.57 — next rotation, which is also a 360 multiple.

  • luri December 1, 2017, 3:01 pm

    so, if one was to ponder on this morning’s almost 50 pt move in the ES in minutes……. what was that move “saying” about the true nature of liquidity in the market?? the melt up on low to no volume is “fake”. There is NO real liquidity in the “deepest” equity markets in the world………..

    …………..i am still getting chatter about Dec. 3rd……….any of you option experts seeing “odd” and “extreme” out of the money bets in either defense contractors or banks happen over the last few days??

    • Verne December 1, 2017, 3:09 pm

      The move powerfully underscores the maxim of there being only two kinds of traders in this market: The Quick and the Dead! 🙂
      In all fairness though, the BTFD crowd continues to survive and thrive…but for how long? My own take is that the banksters are getting closer and closer to loosing control, and these plunges are going to become more and more extreme.
      What can I say, but to scalp away…! 🙂

  • Verne December 1, 2017, 4:11 pm

    Very interesting goings on this week-end. I have rarely seen such a bifurcation among EW analysts. Some are showing legitimate counts with a top in. Others a complete fourth wave Zig Zag with one more up to go, others still an incomplete fourth underway. An interesting comment I saw was that the current situation is one in which incorrect counts are very likely to emerge. Interesting.
    I am now, except for mid term and long positions, mostly market neutral in the short term. It should be an most invigorating week ahead. Have a great week-end all!

  • luri December 1, 2017, 4:15 pm

    grrr……………… i am going to have to do it — begrudgingly…………………. the chatter surrounding Sunday, December 3 is loud and clear…………….. it is suggestive of “dark” potentials.

    live your life, be happy, be AWARE at all times………………..and mostly …………BE WARNED!!!!

    • Verne December 1, 2017, 4:20 pm

      I would much rather prefer to be VERNED!! ….thank you! 🙂

  • jody December 1, 2017, 5:04 pm

    IS THIS IT??

    It could be, it matches in almost every way **BUT** the long wick today tells me.. Not yet. That does not mean it wont fall out again Monday or Tuesday but I think they are testing it right now. Maybe with a dramatic top to come. we will have to see.

    Bulls that hung in there today are growing more confident each time it pops back, so when it does finally smash – stubborn Bulls will hold on and not believe it – until it is too late, which is oddly enough where the end of wave 1 occurs.

    I would say if your a Bull when the SPX gets to around 1790 – 1750 hold on wave 2 is coming..

    400 points rolled off in a very short time. I was done trading in 45mins this morning with double my daily goal. It was a welcomed surprise.

    What if that hard smash went all day with 800 points gone at close? Curious what the Bulls are going to say then after being;

    !!!”WARNED”!!!

    haha!! 🙂

    • Mike Caruana December 1, 2017, 5:46 pm

      Yea, I did not like the long wick either. I was short at the 62% retrace then got out after I saw it and saw it wasn’t committed.
      I did short Naz before the big break a few days ago (Uranus opp Mars instilled confidence). Closed close to the bottom when it turned, re-shorted at the 62% retrace yesterday, closed 1/2 for 100 pts when it started to crack, now I’m sitting with half at break even for a free ride.

    • Verne December 2, 2017, 8:15 am

      The long lower wicks are commonly interpreted as being bullish and this has certainly been the case.
      I have another perspective as we have seen so many of them in recent months. Somebody, or something has been making massive moves OUT of this market, and the exit tracks are quickly being covered. Oh I know! I can hear the whispers of “conspiracy theorist”. It tells you the confidence the Banksters have in the complacency and outright stupidity of the herd when they see a candle that wipes out a week of market gains in minutes, and no one is in the slightest, alarmed. Market participants could give Pavlov’s dogs a run for their money!

  • Tom December 1, 2017, 6:35 pm

    long term energy chart attached including this weeks results

    https://s18.postimg.org/m3y7fx5nd/nov._27th_to_Dec._27th_energy_chart_nl.gif

  • andré December 1, 2017, 11:41 pm

    The Jupiter indicator was above it’s channel in 2015. It peaked 4/10/15 and returned inside the channel 7/2/15. The midpoint between those dates gives 5/21/15; the high. So the 2015 high came with Jupiter’s support. Ever since 7/2/15 Jupiter has been inside the channel, which is like neutral.

    12/2/17 Jupiter drops below it’s channel. This is very bearish. And it makes the low 3/10/18. The midpoint is 1/20/18; nice date for a low, 2 years after the 1/20/16 low,

    Jupiter stays below into 4/4/2021 and breaks out above not before 8/20/23.

    This looks very bearish. It also indicates the recent ATH’s are weaker (w5?) than the 2015 high. Anyway, this weekend is very significant. As Jupiter gives very long cycles we need some orb but sooner or later the market will follow.

    A number of cycles give a high 12/3-4 and a low 12/17-18. 12/18 will be a low. One cycle gives a low 12/5 up into 12/12. 12/12 is a very significant high.

    Next week we have cycles down and one up. This will cause some consolidation into 12/12. 12/4 is again a strong change in trend. 4/6/8 will be highs. in between come the lows.

    As we progress the turns wil become more volatile with 12/8 possibly some panic. But 12/9 will give a low (octave in hebrew year). to jup into 12/12. After 12/12 12/15 will give another high. 12/13 we have HC merc velocity and 12/14 a sensitive degree in HC mercury. So this will give some support to go up into 12/15. Then down in to 18. 12/22-24 it will all be over and the bearmarket will be upon us to stay.

    12/2 Venus changes mansion and 12/1 was a light day (180 degrees on the dark days) and a Mercury echodate. So 12/1-2 had the be a low. 12/6 we have sun change in mansion, jewish mansion, bradley date, Berg astro, and DJ / market leaders give a high. So 12/6 will be a high. 12/8 is a yoga day. This will be tested.

    12/12 very signicant but 12/22-24 will bring capitulation. In his book, Carolan writes about 12/25/15 being the end of a 192 year cycle. 12/25/17 will be 2 years after; the midoint in a 4 year cycle. The composite velocity of the outer planets gives 12/24. This is a very long cycle (slow movers).

    So, the mayhem started in 2015, just as Peter told us. But this was a w3 high. W5 will peak later this month and then we will be down for years.

    3/22-24//18 looks very strong. This could become the retrace in some markets or the high in other markets.

    Expect a black swann soon, Bitcoin? Taxplan? North Korea? We’ll see.

    Have a nice weekend,

    André

    • nick December 2, 2017, 6:09 am

      Thanks Andre”…nick

    • Verne December 2, 2017, 5:03 pm

      Thanks Andre. Interesting that VIX has exactly followed your previous directional calls even though the market lagged. Fascinating. You did mention that could happen….

  • Qwertyqwer26 December 2, 2017, 6:34 am

    Well weekend futures are ripping higher so ES looks like it will get a new high. The higher it goes the better as more pips to catch well the bear comes. With the festive period coming I’d be delighted if we rip higher to 2750 or so before the bear kicks in. I remain long and strong until I see weakness that doesn’t get reversed in a matter of hours.

  • Verne December 2, 2017, 7:24 am

    In all the years I have been trading, I have NEVER seen a correct EW count, motive or corrective, that called for the START of upward movement with a candle ALREADY above the B bands, While price can commonly penetrate, remain pinned to, or even briefly trade above B bands in upward waves already underway,for the upward move to start with price already above is something I have never witnessed. If any other posters use B bands I would be very interested in your take. If a fifth wave up starts from here, it will be parabolic, and the B bands would have to absolutely explode to contain it. A final blow off top possibly?!

  • Peter G December 2, 2017, 9:39 am

    Interesting factoid from Jason Goepfert of sentimenttrader.com:
    The last time, before Thursday (11-30-17), that the S&P 500 rose more than 0.75% and closed at a new high, but the VIX “fear gauge” also rose at least 5%, was March 23, 2000.
    For those of you who are historically data-challenged, March 24, 2000 (corresponding to 12-1-17 in the analogy), was the exact high on both the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and the S&P 500 prior to declines of 83.5% and 50.5% respectively.

    • rotrot December 2, 2017, 9:43 am
    • Verne December 2, 2017, 10:33 am

      Wow! Thanks for that Peter G. I was definitely expecting VIX to start strongly diverging from price on the final wave up as we have seen, but was starting to wonder if we were in a whole new paradigm, with price continuing to defy that usually reliable warning from VIX to get out of Dodge…

  • Peter Temple December 2, 2017, 5:23 pm
  • Joe December 2, 2017, 10:46 pm

    Peter g
    Interesting point .
    Ed
    This time frame is important from a very long term
    Perspective .
    Barbara koval : time and money
    James mars langham, I forget name of book
    Arch Crawford and I believe Raymond merriman
    All of the studies go back to before 1900.
    Using koval as example the Dow should go back to the March
    27 2017 low .Using langham and arch and Raymond merriman
    The Dow will be down all next year .
    Using the puetz window I’ll have to check for exact date yet down into
    April 2017, and first swing low on mars Uranus is also April .
    I dint like the close above 24211 on the dow yet other than that
    We should be very close to a top .

I welcome questions or input about Elliott Wave, cycles analysis, or astrological input relating to any market. However, due to a heavy schedule, I may not have the time to answer comments.

I reserve the right to remove any comment that is deemed negative, disparages the Principle, is otherwise not helpful to blog members, or is off-topic.

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