On Friday, the frustration with this market took me back to the music of the 60s … “Set me free why don’t cha babe Get out my life why don’t cha babe ‘Cause you don’t really love me You just keep me hangin’ on” That’s the chorus from “You Keep Me Hanging On,” a big… Read more
Market Forecast Overview
The 500 Year Bull Market If often talk about the 500 year bull market. From my extensive research in economic cycles, the more specific measure is 516 years (3 times the 172 market crash cycles). If the “orthodox top” of the market was in 2007 (which also coincides with a 172 market top (and the… Read more
Ralph Nelson Elliott’s Work Ralph Elliott’s ground-breaking book, Nature’s Law — The Secret of the Universe, was published on June 10, 1946. He died less than two years later, on January 15, 1948. He has been in ill health for over twenty years, an affliction that struck a couple of years before the 1929 stock… Read more
The Second to Last (Penultimate) Pattern Fourth wave triangle patterns are a warning that the larger trend is about to turn the opposite direction. This is an Elliott Wave rule: It happens every single time we get a triangle in a fourth wave position. Every time! That’s the pattern we’re in now, and it means… Read more
Forecasting the Top Elliott Wave Theory has a poor timing component to it. Mostly it’s used on a grand scale “after-the-fact.” I find that it has little predictive capability. So, it’s best to rely on other cycles data to get a sense of where the top of the market might be. Looking at the subwaves… Read more
“Nothing like this has ever happened before.” I hear it all the time. Dead wrong. We just can’t remember it. These cycles are longer than a human life and by and large, nobody pays any attention to history. No one alive can remember back to the previous period, a warm/dry cycle top which ended in… Read more
Fourth Wave Triangle Warning The warning is this: One more relatively small wave to the upside once the horizontal waves of the triangle play out. Then it’s down, down, down … until 2022. I give it about a month until the top tick is in. The Nasdaq For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing… Read more
The Bottom of Four For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing the pattern unfolding in the Nasdaq on a daily chart and making the case that it looks like we have an ending diagonal unfolding. Quite frankly, I don’t know what else it could be. This weekend, it looks like the NYSE side of… Read more
The Final Fourth I’ve been quite vocal in the Trader’s Gold subscription service about my disdain for fourth waves. Of all the wave patterns (corrective and otherwise), fourth waves are the least predictable. That’s because fourth wave patterns of this size are typically made up of combination sub-patterns (zigzags, flats, and triangles). You need to… Read more
The “unexpected turbulence” I’m referring to in the title is only unexpected to the trading herd and the bulls. Anyone reading my blog posts lately knows I’m expected a rather turbulent end to this large B wave to the upside. It’s seemingly never-ending but I think that’s just to add to the overall market complacency… Read more
