Cycles Affect Every Living Thing
Nature’s cycles affect every living thing on Earth.
Edward R. Dewey, who worked for US President Hoover in the 1930s was a pioneer in the discovery of natures cycles. They affect business, the markets, and so much more. You’ll find links to Dewey’s books on my recommended books page. They’re all imminently readable and fascinating in the scope of the work on major cycles.
Here is the Canadian Lynx cycle from one of his books. The “abundance cycle” is still in effect today—9.6 years. I note that there was even a recent study in Canada to try to find out the cause, but of course, the researchers knew nothing about cycles and so were running blind.
I’ll just add a note on the Lemming. Every 3.86 years, it isn’t compelled to race to the sea and kill itself (as in a Disney film, which was apparently staged). Rather, it seems to be an overpopulation problem.
The lemming simply expands in numbers until it devours all the available food and then migrates to other areas to find more. They eventually reach the sea and drown in large numbers trying to find a route to more food.
Sunspot activity also moves in cycles—11.2 years. Alexander Chizhevsky, a Russian scientist, studied the statistics and histories of seventy-two countries and found a Human Excitability Factor that coincides with the solar peaks. Wars, revolutions, airplane crashes, migrations, and other major events tend to happen with maximum sunspot activity.
There’s an eighteen and a half year cycle in real estate. This one’s quite well known and influences both activity and prices. We’re experiencing a peak right now around the world, and expecting a crash very soon with a bottom about 2020.
The real estate cycle coincides with the lunar nodal cycle, a period of 18.6 years in which for half of that time the moon is below the equator as it revolves around the Earth and above it for the rest. It’s also a rainfall and drought cycle—9 years of each.
Farmers all over the world certainly know about cycles in both climate and in crop growth. There’s a 3.5 year corn cycle, a 9.6 year wheat cycle, a 17.5 year cotton cycle and it goes on and on.
Cycles are a major factor in the movement of the stock market. Successful traders all over the world use cycles as their main means of timing the market. Cycles tell them when to go long or short. Andy Pancholi of London, England has been studying cycles for over thirty years. He publishes a monthly report on cycle turn dates for traders in a wide range of assets, from currencies to commodities to stocks.
He generally focuses on one or two major cycle turns each month. Here’s a chart of the SP500 for the past year and a half, perhaps the most watched US stock index. During this period, his cycle turn predictions have had only one miss. That shows both the accuracy of his projections and validates the fact that stock markets are influenced in a huge way by cycles.
Because human beings control the ups and downs of the market, this strongly suggests that our mood is influenced by forces beyond our control.
Recessions and Depressions also happen in cycles. Here’s a list of the recessions and depressions in the United States throughout the 1800s and into the early 1900s. Notice the length of time between these cycles (the column on the far right). The real estate cycle (18.5 years is a very big factor in depressions).
|Panic of 1807
||+12 years to next|
|Downturn of 1819
||+18 years to next|
|Panic of 1837 (began in 1835)
||+20 years to next|
|Downturn of 1857
||+16 years to next|
|Downturn of 1873
||+20 years to next|
|Downturn of 1893
||+14 years to next|
|Panic of 1907
||+22 years to next|
|Great Depression of 1929
2016 is the year for the next cycle downturn.
Cycles are in virtually everything. They affect wildlife, agriculture, the business environment, wars, our health and much more.
As Lee Iacocca, the past CEO and chairman of Chrysler once said,
“Life is full of cycles. You’d better understand them, because all of your timing and often your luck is tied up in them.”
Cycles are fascinating. They determine your future. And they’re the reason history repeats. If you know the past, you’ll better be able to predict the future.