I’m not a big fan of ending diagonals. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: They’re my least favorite pattern. There are virtually no rules. The waves within them are in 3’s and so subwaves can end without warning, even though they appear to be in the middle of a smaller pattern. The subwaves… Read more
Market Forecast Overview
Wave 1 up of the ending diagonal has been a very long parade. As Zerohedge noted on August 18, “options-traders-have-never-been-more-bullish.” As I stated here last week, “I’m expecting some volatility very soon.” We may get an political/financial event early in the week. Look for a bearish rain cloud to form early in the week. On… Read more
I’m expecting some volatility very soon. It’s been way too calm in the markets for way too long. It’s summer, after all, so you have to expect that kind of action—flat. Summers are always like that. However, we’re at an inflection point across currencies and US indices and I expect a turn, likely this coming… Read more
Update: Monday, August 8, 3PM EST Above is the 15 minute chart of GBPJPY. For anyone interested in the long swing I mentioned below, here’s how we’re doing. I see 5 waves up and and 2nd wave down in progress. The entry point has changed slightly, at about 132.90. You’d go long and be in… Read more
“To begin with, diagonal triangles are very rare.” Robert Prechter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, August 5, 2009 Perhaps not as rare as he made out. Certainly not in the past year or so. Ending diagonals been appearing with some frequency. We had one at the bottom of the A wave in gold, although not with a… Read more
We’re very near a top. I don’t think there’s any logical discussion to the contrary at this point. Society is turning decidedly negative, and the revolution is becoming more and more obvious to the “enlightened.” As well, in an impending depression, commodities always drop first (oil and gas are a great example, as is the… Read more
The Daily Sentiment Indicator on Friday was up to 87%, which isn’t quite a record, but close. That forewarns that all the money is in the market and the players are feeling pretty good about their progress to date. It is not a forecaster of more good times to come. Quite the opposite. It means… Read more
Update Friday, July 8, 3:15 PM EST Above is the 60 minute chart of ES showing an expanding triangle, which is different than a diagonal (although both are triangles). This is what Purvez was referring to in his recent comment and I think it looks more like the pattern we have now (than a diagonal), which… Read more
Update Thursday, June 30, 1PM EST Here’s ES with the count to now. We have a corrective wave up. It will no doubt end at a fib number. The latest is about 2103. I had warned on the weekend that this is not a market that’s easy to predict. But it still lends itself to… Read more
