Forecasting the Top Elliott Wave Theory has a poor timing component to it. Mostly it’s used on a grand scale “after-the-fact.” I find that it has little predictive capability. So, it’s best to rely on other cycles data to get a sense of where the top of the market might be. Looking at the subwaves… Read more
Market Forecast Overview
“Nothing like this has ever happened before.” I hear it all the time. Dead wrong. We just can’t remember it. These cycles are longer than a human life and by and large, nobody pays any attention to history. No one alive can remember back to the previous period, a warm/dry cycle top which ended in… Read more
Fourth Wave Triangle Warning The warning is this: One more relatively small wave to the upside once the horizontal waves of the triangle play out. Then it’s down, down, down … until 2022. I give it about a month until the top tick is in. The Nasdaq For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing… Read more
The Bottom of Four For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing the pattern unfolding in the Nasdaq on a daily chart and making the case that it looks like we have an ending diagonal unfolding. Quite frankly, I don’t know what else it could be. This weekend, it looks like the NYSE side of… Read more
The Final Fourth I’ve been quite vocal in the Trader’s Gold subscription service about my disdain for fourth waves. Of all the wave patterns (corrective and otherwise), fourth waves are the least predictable. That’s because fourth wave patterns of this size are typically made up of combination sub-patterns (zigzags, flats, and triangles). You need to… Read more
The “unexpected turbulence” I’m referring to in the title is only unexpected to the trading herd and the bulls. Anyone reading my blog posts lately knows I’m expected a rather turbulent end to this large B wave to the upside. It’s seemingly never-ending but I think that’s just to add to the overall market complacency… Read more
Last week, I stated my preference for a regular flat as the second downside pattern in this large fourth wave. There was an alternative of another pattern, such as a zigzag down to a new low, but it was less probable. Although it took all week, we got a first wave down in 5 waves… Read more
The Spiked Top in the US Indices All major markets are continuing as one. We’re at a top but the process of changing trend doesn’t happen overnight. The spiked top is the example—tops like this usually don’t last. Trends don’t “change on a dime.” The waves down are corrective—they don’t look motive. Some reasons why… Read more
