World Cycles Institute

The Cycles Turn Down

Wednesday, October 21, 5am EST Update

Finally we have a full ending diagonal in ES:

ES 12-15 (15 Min) 10_21_2015rev

Above is the chart of ES (SPX futures) with a full ending diagonal marked. During the evening on Tuesday, the final leg (e) traced out and it became clear that we had a full ending diagonal. The SPX may have already completed one wave down and in that case, we’ll like see a second wave in all the indices and futures this morning, heading down into a third wave.

Either that, or we’ll head back up to the top to test one final time, but it’s really not necessary as the ending diagonal pattern is complete in both cash and futures.


Tuesday, October 20 Update


Above is the SP500 as it is at 10:30 am EST. We’re just completing an ending diagonal. The final wave is in. We just need a turn down.


Monday, October 19 looks like the big day. I expect the markets to turn down at some point during the Monday session.

Last week, I had suggested October 13 as a possible top. The cycles were pointing to that date, as were some planetary influences. And we were close to a top in the Elliott wave count.

So, why didn’t we top? Well, we were missing one last wave up, which became very apparent when we had a very choppy 3 wave drop to the downside. 3 waves always means a retrace.

Now, let’s address “cycles.” When cycles show a top, they’re really in neutral territory. Cycles haven’t actually turned down; there’s no impetus to head lower. However, a few days later, once the cycles have descended to a lower level, pressure begins to mount and the effect should get stronger and stronger for the market to follow. I find the analysis program I use to be extremely good at forecasting turns, but cycles can slide slightly over time. Accuracy within a week or so is really a terrific outcome.

In today’s post, I’ll look at what happened Friday and where I think the market is headed. I’ll use the SP500 as an example. And then I want to go through the major indices and show how they’re all on the same page.

Bottom line: We have a pending top in place. I expect a turn down on Monday. The SP500 (and Russell 3000) have gaps nearby. It remains to be seen whether they will get filled or not on Monday.

Wave 2 or 4? There is a question as to whether the very large correction we’ve been experiencing since August 24 is wave 2 or 4. Because the NYSE (comprising all the US stocks, except the Nasdaq) has not reached 62%, which is the usual target for wave 2, I’ve decided to label the correction as wave 4 until proven wrong. This makes the downside less limited. However, once we see the length of the first wave down, it should give us a clue as to whether we’re in wave 5 or a very much larger, higher degree Wave 3.

Here’s a textbook projection of where wave 5 might go, based upon this being a completed 4th wave correction.

As we approach the top of this correction, I often get asked where the best place to enter is. Here is a brief explanation of what to expect and the safest point at which to enter a short trade after a first wave down.

ES 12-15 (30 Min) 10_20_2015

expanding-ending-diagonalHere’s a 60 minute chart of ES (SPX futures) from Monday (above). It traced out an expanding ending diagonal right at the end of the day on Friday. On Sunday and Monday, it traces out a more tradtional ending diagonal. This is an ending wave and signifies that the entire structure is complete. NQ and YM traced out exactly the same ending diagonal structure on Friday.

On the left is a diagram of an expanding ending diagonal from The Elliott Wave Principle, by Frost and Prechter) you’ll find this book in my recommended book list of the site.

Ending diagonals typically exhibit a “throw-over,” so the ES could go a little higher, but the turn is usually dramatic and retraces the entire structure (to wave 4) very quickly.

Sunday may see the futures retreat and then return to a double top on Monday (not shown in the diagram to the left). It doesn’t always happen, but it’s relatively normal.

Let’s get on to the cash indices:


The 2 hour chart of the SP500 (above) shows the bigger picture. We traced out a fifth wave on Friday afternoon that may or may not be complete. There’s a small gap about two points above the current level and that may need to be filled. Otherwise, the structure is complete and we’re poised to turn down.

I’ve placed the 62% retrace line (from the market top) on the chart. This is the target I’ve been suggesting we would eventually test. On Friday, we slightly exceeded it.

Here’s the explanation of the correction we’ve formed on almost all the indices: a regular flat.

Regular flatCurrently in the SP500, wave 3 is 1.6 times the length of wave 1. In the final 5th wave, wave iii is 1.6 times wave 1. If wave v traces out the typical full length (1.6 x wave i), it would top at 2052. Based upon what ES did on Friday (an ending diagonal), I find it less likely that wave 5 will extend to its full length.

Any flat correction is in a 3-3-5 pattern. This final wave C has now traced out a complete, or almost complete set of 5 waves. Five waves up marks the end of a sequence and demands a trend change.

In a regular flat correction, “wave B terminates about at the end or about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A.” If we complete a flat that goes to a slight new high, then this would have to be a larger 2nd wave and the downside will be much greater than a 5th wave. For example, the third wave alone would take us down to the low 1600s in the SPX. We would have a 5th wave after that.


Let’s look at the bigger picture to get a sense of where we’re possibly going longer term.


Above is a 2 day chart of the SP500. I’ve overlain a fibonacci retracement tool to give an indication of our target if this is a typical first wave down. In that case, the 5th wave is typically the same length as the first three waves combined. This would suggest our target is somewhere in the 1600s area.

Once we’ve seen the first wave down, it should give us an idea of the magnitude of the balance of the descending waves.


The Nasdaq now looks the same as the other indices. This final leg up reached the 62% retrace line (the horizontal line) on Friday and slightly exceeded it. We’ve traced out a complete set of 5 waves up, or it should complete on Monday morning.


The NYSE (above) has not met the 62% retracement level (horizontal line). This is what has led me to believe we’re still in a 4th wave correction. If somehow we reach the 62% mark before turning down, I will likely update my labelling. In any event, the wave structure looks complete or almost so.


The DOW (above) tagged the 62% level exactly on Friday afternoon with a double top.


The Global DOW (GDOW) has retraced up to to almost the 62% level (horizontal line) but is still short. It has also done a double top. I’m expecting it to turn here or at a level nearby. This is another reason (as per the NYSE) that I have gone back to labelling all the US indices as fourth wave corrections.


The Russell 3000 (RUA) ended Friday with a double top and what looks like a completed set of 5 waves up. It did not quite reach the 62% retrace level, but it’s so close, it could easily do so on Monday morning. It’s a slightly different pattern than the other indices in that it’s done an ABC correction to a new low (the B wave hit a new low, and was also in 3 waves down). This C was is in 5 waves up, which is an ending wave, of course. This would be a typical setup for a wave 3, so we certainly have indices suggesting alternate degrees for the next wave down. We’ll just have to see what happens.


Cycles Analysis

I ran this chart Friday, Oct 16 after the market close. Not much has changed from the cycles analysis from a week ago.

SPY Oct 9 all 2

This cycles analysis uses Techsignal X from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. I’m using data going back to 2002 this analysis of SPY (SPX) and displaying a compilation of all the cycles the software has found over that period. You can see how close-fitting it has been in the recent past. The fit with the current wave is quite stunning and therefore, something to pay attention to.

This analysis suggests a cycle top of October 13 (starting down on the 14). Oct 13 was also the new moon.

It shows a bottom to this set of waves down at December 7, 2015.

This particular cycle top (Oct 13) is a strong one. I’ve gone a little deeper into what the analysis is telling me on a separate page. Here’s a more in-depth explanation of what this chart is suggesting. 


The Panic Phase and the TPD (Turning Point Distribution) Principle

The TPD Principle describes a period in time of several weeks in which an array of cycles congregate, including gravitational, geomagnetic, and nuclear. It’s around this time that markets have historically topped. I was asked to include a reference to this in today’s blog post, which I’m happy to do. This principle generally refers to market tops (which we’ve already seen on May 20, 2015), but it’s interesting to note how many astro events we have occurring over the weeks surrounding the upcoming major turn in the market.

In his book, “the Universal Cycle Theory,” Stephen Puetz writes, “The TPD principle involves the eclipse cycle as well. The eclipse cycle normally peaks on the first new moon before a solar eclipse. Following that reversal point, it takes six weeks for sentiment to shift from euphoria to panic. Then on the first full moon after a solar eclipse, a panic-phase begins. A panic phase usually last two weeks—ending at the time of the next new moon.”

The dates:

Aug 14 , 2015 – First New Moon before the Eclipse (there is a New Moon happening at the same time as an Eclipse—Sept. 13)

***Aug 29 – Full Moon before the Solar Eclipse (peak of the eclipse cycle)

Sept 13, 2015 – New Moon and Partial Solar Eclipse

Sept 23, 2015 – Fall Equinox

***Sept 28, 2015 – Super Blood Moon Eclipse (start of panic phase)

***Oct 13, 2015 – New Moon (this would mark the end of the panic phase) – six weeks after the Aug. 29 full moon.

So … there’s a lot happening in the area of cycles right around now. The week of Oct 13 looks important to a possible major market turn.

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{ 207 comments… add one }
  • Andy October 17, 2015, 4:23 pm

    Thanks for the timely update Peter!

  • andré October 18, 2015, 12:19 am

    7/20 was 60 degrees from 5/20. 10/19 will be 90 degrees from 7/20. Combined this shows 19/10 will be inconjunct (150 degree) 5/20. Many astrologers consider inconjuctions to be bad angles. Combine that will Mars conjunct Jupiter and you can see the sky is heavy.

    2015 sofar resembles 2007. Gravity gave the lunar cit by the end of 2006 but the turn came in October 2007. Gravity also gave a lunar cit by the end of 2014 and we had to wait for October to see the turn.

    Today we need to look at the sky to see that black swan approaching.



  • Whazzup October 18, 2015, 3:29 am


    Finally we are on the same page! That means, complex wave 4 just finished. For now def not a 2 (according to this rookie that is learning fast). 😉


    Thank you for your insights, so cool to read them and I can see it all happen!

    Now let us wait and see. 🙂



  • jaze October 18, 2015, 8:05 am

    Peter, thank you for your efforts and guidance. I really count on the cycles working down. What do you think of Caldaros latest view ? He sees now a Primary 5 underway with a target of 2214 ? We finishing major 1 and down only 20 points for major 2 and then higher Major 3.. My question is when having so many cycles pointing down how likely is that cycles would not be active and heading prices down ?
    Wishing all a successful week

    • peter October 18, 2015, 9:08 am

      Well, if he thinks we’re going up, this would have to be wave 3, not 1. We’ve already had three waves up. 1 would have been the A wave on my chart, the B would be 2 and 3 would be C. The first problem is that 1 is in three waves and it can’t be if this is an ending wave. The next problem is that wave 4, which would be next is going to come down into the area of wave 1, which is not allowed. So from an EW perspective, it makes no sense.

  • peter October 18, 2015, 12:48 pm

    I’ve placed a “textbook” projection for wave 5 here:

  • Dave October 18, 2015, 4:32 pm

    China economic data due 10:00 ET, press conf. as well at 10:30 ET. I use this link to track upcoming releases, FWIW:

    One of these morning when we get up, the market will be limit down. We are indeed in interesting times. I am fully short, combination of UVXY 3x shorts. Good luck every one.

    Peter, Do you not see the possibility of what Armstrong scenario playing out. A sling shot move. News lows first, than a huge reversal?

    • Dave October 18, 2015, 4:40 pm

      I still see a few more es points upwards before we crater. If so I will transfer more 3x shorts to UVXY

    • peter October 18, 2015, 6:38 pm

      I don’t know what the Armstrong scenario is and I really don’t have any comment on someone else’s opinion of what might or might not happen. I’ve provided my EW analysis and that’s my opinion. Anything else I consider “noise,” or conjecture. Sorry.

  • Liz October 18, 2015, 10:14 pm

    Peter, thank you for your post again. I am guilty of entering early. I couldn’t resist buying a few SPY puts after the close Friday. I was waiting for spy to hit Aug. 21 high but it didn’t.

    • peter October 18, 2015, 11:29 pm

      I think you’ll be fine. I shorted ES at the very end of the day Friday to get this little drop. It’s come down in 3 waves so, as expected, it should do a double top in the morning … and then … wave 5 down. Off to bed.

  • Joe October 19, 2015, 1:36 am

    Hi Peter
    have you researched the benner business cycle ?
    I hardly if ever hear anyone mention it or really pay attention to it
    yet it has had a very good track record over the past 100 years
    it’s worth taking a look at

    • peter October 19, 2015, 6:53 am

      I was looking at it a month of so ago. It’s the 8,9,10 year cycles for recessions, I think. I wasn’t getting it to work all that well in recent years. I’ll get back to it with more depth at some point.

  • Dimitri October 19, 2015, 8:36 am

    Hi Peter,
    how do you feel this first wave down in ES?
    Looks like it has retraced 62% and is heading down

    • peter October 19, 2015, 8:37 am

      I think so, but I wouldn’t count it quite done yet. NQ might need to top still …

    • peter October 19, 2015, 8:39 am

      And there is that gap in the SP500.

    • peter October 19, 2015, 8:41 am

      Although I count SPX up in 3 waves from the most recent low, so it really shouldn’t make a new top.

    • Dimitri October 19, 2015, 8:55 am

      Yes, wave up is in 3.
      But how do you find the fist wave in ES down? Is it motive for you?

      • peter October 19, 2015, 8:58 am

        yes, but we’re in 1 minute waves, so I can’t be positive, but it does look good to me. And there was a small double top in ES. DOW has done double top. Nasdaq is an ending diagonal now, I think so it just has to end.

      • peter October 19, 2015, 9:26 am

        I think we just need to drop through some trendlines now.

      • peter October 19, 2015, 9:41 am

        Now the SP500 has morphed into an ending diagonal and so 3 is allowed. But this is the last wave in that pattern. Maybe it has to fill that gap finally at 2035.

      • peter October 19, 2015, 10:07 am

        Looking better now … dropping through some trendlines. Hopefully, we just continue down.

      • peter October 19, 2015, 10:50 am

        That appears to be a very nice motive wave down on 1 minutes futures charts and an even nicer second wave up. Just need a new low.

      • peter October 19, 2015, 11:33 am

        ES 2012 and then a bounce, I think. This will be the first wave of the third, perhaps. Usually the first wave of the third is the same length as the first wave.

  • Gary October 19, 2015, 10:01 am

    Does the 40 point overshoot in the Nasdaq have any significance to the wave structure?

  • Gary October 19, 2015, 10:21 am

    Makes sense! Thanks…

    In your “Wave 5 Textbook Projection”, is the scale accurate?
    That is, are you looking at 1713 in early January?
    I realize a projection chart like that isn’t super precise but sometimes they are meant to be close.

    • peter October 19, 2015, 10:23 am

      Until we see the full first wave down, I can’t do any better than that.

      • Dimitri October 19, 2015, 11:54 am

        Looks like we finish now the 4th of the 1st.
        In this case the 1st should come down to 2020 before the bounce in the 2nd

        • peter October 19, 2015, 11:58 am

          Yes, the 4th. However, the fifth is also 1.6 times the first of that wave. So I make it 2012, which is also the previous 4th. We’ll see.

        • peter October 19, 2015, 12:00 pm

          I think you’re talking about the SPX … yes 2020.

        • peter October 19, 2015, 12:03 pm

          You’re becoming a trading machine! … haha.

        • peter October 19, 2015, 12:26 pm

          Looks like this wave will take the rest of the session and we bounce in a second tonight. Tomorrow a third. But these are all part of the larger first wave, so it will take a bit longer before we really get going …

        • peter October 19, 2015, 12:39 pm

          We’ve backed up into the area of the first wave, so I guess we’re going up to a double top.

          • Gary October 19, 2015, 12:45 pm

            You mean 2035 SPX?

          • peter October 19, 2015, 12:48 pm

            Could be. But it negated the motive wave down. We could also just go back to the top of the second wave. Hard to say at the moment.

          • peter October 19, 2015, 1:01 pm

            Ending diagonals many times test the final top before heading down in earnest. As well, second waves like to do double-pronged (ABC) versions when there’s a bigger third wave down to come. I would think those are the two options.

        • peter October 19, 2015, 1:29 pm

          Frustrating market! I guess we try again tomorrow morning. Nasdaq could be going up to tag the previous high. SPX may fill that 2035 gap. I see IWM needs to make a double top … somewhere nearby is a final top.

          • Gary October 19, 2015, 1:42 pm

            Knowing how tricky Mr. Market tends to be. It would be most typical that we have arrived at the top right at the close today!

          • peter October 19, 2015, 1:43 pm

            We’re not there yet, but likely will be tomorrow.

          • peter October 19, 2015, 2:03 pm

            Well, Gary, cash looks like it topped right at the end of the day! I’ll give you that much. Good call.
            Futures not quite I don’t think. We can’t come down tonight because that creates a gap, so everything will likely sit until the am.

          • LIZ October 19, 2015, 2:17 pm

            The biotech stocks don’t fail to disappoint though. Peter, I’d like a gap down for the indices tomorrow pls. but Whitemare mentioned Oct. 22 so I will be patient.

          • peter October 19, 2015, 2:20 pm

            It looks like everything has topped, actually, so we may just go sideways in futures until the morning.
            Futures are just ticks away from double tops and the DOW did an ending diagonal at the end of the day (the only one that didn’t before …)

  • Gary October 19, 2015, 11:11 am

    Pretty unusual market action all morning. The US30 Bond is down 1 point which “usually” would have the Dow up ~70 to 100 points. As we know, the Dow and other indices are pretty much vacillating. The article below discusses comments by SECTREAS Jack Lew. So, if $$$ is panic selling the bonds, where is the $$$ going if not in US Equities? Doesn’t seem to be the metals…

  • whitemare October 19, 2015, 1:49 pm

    Some astro turn indicators show the window might not open until early am of Oct 22…Merc max north latitude and Jupiter at the midpoint of the triple conjunction of Ve Jp Ma. Still, tomorrow is key with the Quarter Moon and this triple conjunction weighing heavily. 22nd should be very volatile day with Moon parallel Sun.

    • Glenn October 19, 2015, 2:46 pm

      Hi whitemare, where can I read more about your comments? It sounds quite interesting.

      • whitemare October 20, 2015, 3:54 am

        Hi Glenn, thanks for asking. I am in the Vedic astrology field, which is pretty complex (like Elliott wave). If you have questions about that email me at akath11 at Tweaking again the exact figures for when that period that shows a high comes, I am seeing it’s not the 22nd but the morning of the 21st, so maybe a false start down today and the real wave begins tomorrow.

  • john October 20, 2015, 8:31 am

    Hello Whitemare,

    ” the real wave begins tomorrow”
    So what do you expect ?
    Stan Harley cycle expert sees a possible top arround Oktober 23 and also a big cluster arround November 5 that should mark the end of this bearmarket rally.

    Thanks in advance


  • Gary October 20, 2015, 8:35 am

    “I sense a disturbance in the force”

    Will Janet Yellen kick off a wave to the downside when she speaks at 11:00am EDT?
    Like she did on September 17th?

    • peter October 20, 2015, 9:07 am

      That would certainly be “appropriate” … 🙂

  • peter October 20, 2015, 8:39 am

    I’ve added a chart of the SP500 showing the ending diagonal we’re finishing up. I’ve also updated the chart of ES a little further down.

    • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 8:47 am

      They continue to push.
      They have no limits

      • peter October 20, 2015, 8:49 am

        We’ve now done a throw-over in the diagonal, which is expected and five waves ups. Let’s see what happens here.

      • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 8:54 am

        In what wave are we now in this throw-over?

        • peter October 20, 2015, 8:56 am

          A throw-over is the final wave in an ending diagonal that goes beyond the trendline. It’s only one wave.

          • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 8:58 am

            Sorry, I haven’t understood your “and five waves up”

          • peter October 20, 2015, 9:06 am

            I count five waves within the final wave up. It’s a “3” but five waves within it.

          • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 9:07 am


          • peter October 20, 2015, 9:10 am

            I think one more wave up on the 1 minute chart to a double top on SPX oughta do it.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 9:23 am

            This final wave will either test the top or turn at 62%. The waves are so small, it’s hard to tell if the latest one came down in 3 or 5. Usually, though, 5 would come down to the previous 4th, so I’m assuming we need a full retrace here.

          • Gary October 20, 2015, 9:49 am

            At the end of this kind of 5 wave move up (the whole thing from August) isn’t the reversal usually very swift and violent? This up and down movement for hours seems a bit out of character. We really looked ready to reverse late yesterday. I realize the waves need to complete. But, this vacillating is crazy ~~

          • peter October 20, 2015, 9:55 am

            We are quickly running out of steam. For ending diagonals, you just have to go look at the top of the market. The NYSE went sideways for a year and a half before it keeled over. ES has gone sideways now for a couple of days.

            This is normal. The reversal will be dramatic in that it will go straight down as compared to this wandering around trying to keep going up and not being able to. We’re almost there … and we may be seeing the start now …

          • peter October 20, 2015, 10:37 am

            WE might just keep sliding. NQ is now below the lower trendline of the ending diagonal.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 10:42 am

            It also looks like a first wave down with an ending diagonal, which would lead to a second wave up. So, I’m sitting waiting until I see something that makes sense.

          • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 10:48 am

            do you see any structure in this wave down?
            For me it is overlapping too much

          • peter October 20, 2015, 10:50 am

            I just put out a comment that it could be a first wave down with an ending diagonal, which would lead to a second wave. Or it’s a channel that will keep sliding. Not enough info …

            If the former, ES would go back to 4442.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 10:55 am

            Sorry … 4442 is NQ. Try 2027.5 ES

          • peter October 20, 2015, 10:53 am

            The first part of the wave looks motive, that’s why I suggest the ending diagonal. We did the same pattern at the top of the market.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 10:59 am

            Or, of course, it’s simply 3 waves down and will go back to the top. I’m leaning towards the ending diagonal.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 11:34 am

            We are possibly just going to keep dropping. I would think the first stop then is SPX 2020 – the previous 4th wave. I don’t have a lot of confidence in this call. We’re now down below the lower trendline of the ending diagonal.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 1:06 pm

            There is an argument that this retrace to 62% is a second wave in SPX and ES.

          • Gary October 20, 2015, 1:09 pm

            To the EW neophyte what does that imply in the short term?

          • peter October 20, 2015, 1:17 pm

            That we will move down in a third wave, but it would have to be impulsive and move to a new low to validate it at this point.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 1:18 pm

            The problem is I can’t point to that first wave down and say with certainty that it’s a motive wave down in 5 waves.

          • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 1:09 pm

            The market has no conviction. There is no volumes. Everybody is waiting aside to jump in when the direction is more clear.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 1:13 pm

            I have never seen a market quite like this. The pattern is complete and yet we simply won’t come down.

          • peter October 20, 2015, 1:38 pm

            We must be heading for a new high … to test the previous top. I can see a possible 5 waves within this wave up today. That’s all I can think is left to do, because the ending diagonals are complete … in indices and futures. So, another day of waiting.

            The only other alternative is that we’re going into a third wave, but that doesn’t make sense at the end of the day, because coming down overnight would create a gap that would need to be filled.

          • Gary October 20, 2015, 1:19 pm

            Yes, fundamentally IBM and Wal-Mart should have lots of people cashing out and moving to the sidelines at least. I think a lot of the support to the market is $$ leaving bonds for stocks. We are in unusual times~~

        • peter October 20, 2015, 8:57 am

          We need a double top here and I want to see NQ test it’s previous high.

      • Dimitri October 20, 2015, 8:56 am

        I mean from what level should we count the waves in throw-over?
        From the break point?

    • john October 20, 2015, 8:49 am


      The target Stan Harley wrote down is 2040-2060 for the SP en 17.500 for the Dow
      Maybe this is the last push higher we need to see.

  • Liz October 20, 2015, 2:39 pm

    I just realized we cannot shut down the party because Wall St. has to roll the red carpet for Ferrari. Maybe, while RACE rolls in, others are sneaking out the door so no one notices.

    • peter October 20, 2015, 5:55 pm

      There’s a lot of really crazy stuff going on. In Canada, we just had our national election. We just voted in as Prime Minister a 43 kid (son of a previous Prime Minister) who has never done anything in life (the kid, that is), and we’re giving him a majority government (with over half newly elected) along with the largest depression in history. On top of that, Canada has the largest real estate bubble in the world, ranks as the leader in household debt worldwide, has no gold, and we’re a resource-based economy.

      And our debt is on a par with the US.

      So I guess I’ll be looking for an island somewhere …

      • Liz October 21, 2015, 12:49 am

        Peter, what’s happening over there is quite interesting. I’ll try to read up on it when I get the chance. In the meantime, tell us if you’ve narrowed down the island choices. I’m interested in the list and might head over there too. 🙂

        ES just hit 2034.25 which is the July 6 low.

        • peter October 21, 2015, 1:28 am

          On a more positive note (depending on your perspective), ES is at the bottom on the fourth wave (at 2023 at 3:30 am EST) and should complete 5 waves up by around the open to finally topple this thing. I’m expecting a double top. Five waves up is what I’m looking for.

  • Glenn October 20, 2015, 8:57 pm

    I ‘m with you on the island hunt Peter. I also heard that Equador is one of the best places in the world to escape to. I’m also Canadian and am worried as you are.

    • peter October 21, 2015, 1:26 am

      I was most worried after I watched the victory speech. A couple of us were wondering how white his hair will be in a couple of years.

      It’s a crazy system where we elect someone who knows nothing, based on popularity, so that they can spend our money, and give us what we want, in order to get re-elected.

      We’ll see how things go … I was half joking on the island (because I’m a speaker and hope to launch this new platform to help people get through this) but it would sure be nice to have somewhere to escape to if necessary.

  • peter October 21, 2015, 3:20 am

    I updated the ES chart at the top of the post this morning as it looks like the missing piece was a full ending diagonal in ES.

  • Jaze October 21, 2015, 4:03 am

    The Jupiter – Saturn Cycles has a high this Friday 23rd. So the real downside action could start not before next Monday 26th October well into first week of November. We could well oscillate until this Friday at around 2040 – 2060 and then go down next week. I can feel it in case of the DAX as one of the weakest Indices as it has been pushed up again after loosing initially 100 points and is now back where we opened. The mood is still buy the dips….but it will change finally and hopefully latest next Monday. All the best,Jaze

  • andré October 21, 2015, 4:16 am

    If I understand corrrectly, the crashwindow opens with the last new moon before the solar eclipse. That would be 8/14. Using that date in square of nine we see something remarkable. First we see 8/24 is on the horizontal axis. On the same axis but opposite we find 10/21. As 8/24 was a low, 10/21 should be a high.

    In the natal chart we see that on this date the sun is conjunct Neptune and inconjunct the sun. So this is a very special day.

    My tidal station shows that Monday was a significant high, but also show a short term inversion from Monday til Wednesday.

    So 3 different tools all point to 10/21 as a very significant date. With the ECB meeting tomorrow we have all the ingredients for a little fun in the market.


    • peter October 21, 2015, 8:03 am

      Thanks, André, for such a comprehensive explanation.

  • Whazzup October 21, 2015, 5:44 am


    Have to say I am with you on this one. I expect the top today! Really cool to see you say the same looking at astrology, thank you for your knowledge André! Wish you could teach me some so I would understand 100% of what you are saying.


    I cannot press or stress or stretch (what is the word???) enough, Peter, you are f*ck*ng unbelievable pro at EW. I learned so much from you in this short timespan, THANK YOU! I am starting to look so differently at pricemoves just by reading your stuff… My EW skills are getting better for sure! Should still read a book, haha, NO TIME ATM. 🙁


    You must be st*p*d to pay for EW stuff… Let’s all keep this blog a cool place to share stuff with eachother.

    Cheers to all!


    • peter October 21, 2015, 8:03 am

      Here we go finally … 🙂

      • Gary October 21, 2015, 8:09 am

        Tentatively, would SPX 2020 be the first spot for a wave up?

        • peter October 21, 2015, 8:13 am

          2025 would likely be the earliest point for another second wave. If not, 2017.50.

        • peter October 21, 2015, 8:28 am

          We’re in the middle of the wave, Gary, so not 2025.

    • Kent October 21, 2015, 11:44 am

      Ditto less the profanity.

  • Gary October 21, 2015, 8:34 am

    Thanks Peter!
    I have a real interest in learning how these waves unfold in this type of structure. We had the largest point drop in history in August. Now we are reacting as a society (EW Principle). This is a somewhat rare and fascinating part of EW Theory. To me anyway!! I would think the last time this could be so well observed would be in the spring of 2009 in reverse when we rallied off the SPX 666 bottom.

    • peter October 21, 2015, 8:49 am

      Gary, in SPX, this should only be the fourth wave of the third, but it’s a big one, I think because the Nasdaq is doing a first wave while the SPX side is in the third.

      You should read Prechter’s books on Socionomics and maybe subscribe to the Socionomics newsletter if you don’t already. They all tie the market into the social side of things. I really like Prechter’s books on this … a huge amount of research he did.

    • peter October 21, 2015, 9:29 am

      Ah … what we have, I think, is the Nasdaq (I’m watching NQ) getting back in sync with the SPX. We’ve done second waves in both. The downside will be larger now, so forget that number I gave you.

    • peter October 21, 2015, 9:43 am

      The DOW of all things, did yet another ending diagonal …
      Hopefully that’s the end of these things.

      • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 10:30 am

        Algos want to take DOW 17.300.
        And usually they get what they want

      • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 10:33 am

        There they are

      • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 10:42 am

        Now they should keep it until thee close.
        I think there is nothing to do today. No selling pressure

        • Gary October 21, 2015, 10:45 am
          • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 10:58 am

            Markets don’t mind this.
            Another one bad investment

          • peter October 21, 2015, 11:07 am

            This is what a third wave should look like. Want to see a new low in SPX below 2026, 2018 in ES.

          • peter October 21, 2015, 11:09 am

            2017 actually in ES.

          • peter October 21, 2015, 11:19 am

            There goes support …

          • peter October 21, 2015, 11:20 am

            2016 as the first bounce, but we may go much lower.

          • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 12:34 pm

            the 4th wave now begins to overlap with the 1st?
            Does it mean that we’ll go to retrace once more to the top?

          • peter October 21, 2015, 1:20 pm

            I’m counting this as a second wave of the third, so we should be OK. Hopefully.
            What a wild day.

          • peter October 21, 2015, 1:23 pm

            It happened because the DOW was the last one to top and it was in a first wave and needed a second so …. everything headed up.

            I think (hope) we’ll get another drop into the close. This market doesn’t want to let go.

          • peter October 21, 2015, 1:54 pm

            We’ve broken some good support in both ES and SPX and I really don’t see anything to stop our fall now until 2005 SPX and 2000 ES

          • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 1:59 pm

            In this case we should have the bounce from SPX 2005 to 2015 and then another leg to 1990 ?

          • peter October 21, 2015, 2:01 pm

            I’ll look at some numbers tonight. Have to head out to a meeting.

          • peter October 21, 2015, 9:49 pm

            Hi Dmitri,
            It’s a little early to determine where the fourth wave will be. It could be 2005 where we get a bounce. That’s at about the wave 1 X 2.618 mark. Let’s see how this wave unfolds a bit more.

          • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 10:02 pm

            But what is the wave done in futures right now?
            It has retraced almost 62%.
            Another one 2nd of the 1st of the 1st ?

          • peter October 22, 2015, 7:25 am

            So far this is a correction, possibly correcting part of the three waves down. We had a lot of announcements in the last hour or so.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 7:34 am

            We had 3 waves down in the SP after the second wave, so my preference is that we’re going a double second wave in prep for a third wave down. We’ll just have to see.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 7:44 am

            No … a new high. A do-over coming.

          • Dimitri October 21, 2015, 10:23 pm

            Hi Peter,
            this move down since last 24 hours. It has made 4 legs down more or less of the same size retracing every time 62% at least

          • Gary October 22, 2015, 7:53 am

            Do over? From what level?

          • peter October 22, 2015, 7:57 am

            A new high. I already count 5 waves up, but ES isn’t quite there. Everything needs to get there.

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 8:02 am

            Sorry, Peter,
            could you explain what does it mean do-over?

          • peter October 22, 2015, 8:06 am

            We’re starting over at the top. We’re starting fresh.

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 8:09 am

            But where is the top?
            How far they can go?

          • peter October 22, 2015, 8:10 am

            The top is C, the fourth wave – what we’ve been concentrating on for the past while.

          • Gary October 22, 2015, 8:12 am

            Peter, ES got there at 2034.50. Right?
            Is there a lesson in EW terms for a “do over”?
            ie.. starting again from the top.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 8:26 am

            Extending the trendline across the top of the ending diagonal suggests a top somewhere nearby.
            As I’ve mentioned before, ending diagonals in many cases like to get the tops tested. I think that’s what we’re doing.

            In terms of what to do, if look in the blog post, there’s the link to the preferred EW way to enter a trade … after a small degree 5 waves and then 3 up to 62%. We haven’t seen that anywhere yet, even in the past wave down.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 8:28 am

            Re: the trendline … I was referring to futures and the ending diagonal there.

  • Jaze October 21, 2015, 8:52 am

    This market wants to first test 2047 where basically breakdown was before we really kick down….it’s unbelievable testing all nerves and requires lots of patient.

    Best your trading,

    • peter October 21, 2015, 9:36 am

      I have no support for 2047, but I suspect SPX is now going to test the top. The first or the previous second wave. Be careful, all. We might not have a green light yet.

      • Jaze October 22, 2015, 1:27 am

        Hi Peter,

        I think your were right saying, If wave v traces out the typical full length (1.6 x wave i) it would top at 2052, that is what you mentioned lately.

        Can that still be a possibility ?
        Many thanks for your continous guidance.
        Best, Jaze

  • Charlie October 21, 2015, 9:52 am

    Peter,you suspect that SPX is going to test the top. What level do you mean by the top, SPX~2038 ?

    • peter October 21, 2015, 9:54 am

      At the most, but I’m not even sure we’re going there. Just have to wait to see what happens.

  • Kent October 21, 2015, 11:40 am

    Never a doubt, what’s that gagging in the background?

  • Robert October 22, 2015, 6:56 am

    I’m new to the sight. Any thoughts to where we are at the present. What leg within
    what leg.

  • Mike October 22, 2015, 8:06 am

    This morning’s move in the US dollar and stocks today may be the last spasm of a dying bull. A paroxysm that looks like a sign of life but is only a last gasp. This is the beginning of the end of American exceptionalism. We can not have our currency cake and eat stock profits too.

    • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 8:26 am

      ECB has shown that they are ready to go “all in” like Bank of Japan.
      So, it may be very bullish

      • peter October 22, 2015, 8:34 am

        This seems like the last blow-off for the bulls. We may have to do a small fifth wave to a double top still. We have to remember that these waves are marking the end of a 300 year plus bubble-rally. The magnitude is unprecedented.

        This ending diagonal that we have at the top of this wave is rather extraordinary-I’ve never seen anything like it in terms of it going on and on, so there’s a little bit of guesswork here as well as pulling from my experience.

        And of course, governments all over the world are scared out of their wits and trying to create currency wars …

        • peter October 22, 2015, 8:42 am

          I don’t show Nasdaq or NYSE quite at a new high yet. I suspect they will both need to get there. They’re not far away.

      • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 8:42 am

        Another 10 or 20 points up is not a problem.
        The problem is if they arrive to initiate another leg of few hundred points up like in 2012 after “whatever it takes” of ECB

        • peter October 22, 2015, 9:24 am

          Second wave target being the case, I put us now at the top of the third wave up (of this final 5th wave). Next, we should drop to the previous fourth (or 38%). I could get a length of the final fifth of fifth once we see the retrace.

        • peter October 22, 2015, 9:41 am

          The issue with the casH indices is the gap in the morning. I don’t have a first wave length so it’s near impossible to project a top, but we should still have a final fifth wave up in everything after a fourth wave retrace. And then we should finally be DONE!

        • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 10:17 am

          When they move like today they don’t retrace. Just go ahead. The question is to what level?
          In October 2014 the up was 260 points in straight line

          • peter October 22, 2015, 10:24 am

            I’ve measured the top of wave 3 at 2045 ES and then a retrace to about 2031. Then a fifth of fifth up the same length as the third.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 10:25 am

            Sorry 2046 ES – top of 3.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 10:54 am

            Sorry, was off by 3 points. Retrace now to 2032/3, which is the previous fourth.

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 11:03 am

            So, 2050 ES minimum. And who knows if they stop there. Now they have the carotte – more money from ECB in December

          • peter October 22, 2015, 11:20 am

            In answer to your question, I know.

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 11:58 am

            if we are in the 4th of the 5th now what is the level from where you count the 1st and the 3rd ?

          • peter October 22, 2015, 12:11 pm

            I can leave those numbers tonight when I do an analysis.
            This was a nice little short – the 4th wave in ES. I will likely hit the 5th wave up as well.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 12:58 pm

            I now put the top of ES at 2050, based on 1.618 X wave 1.

            Here are the ES measurements
            Wave 1 of 3 2012-38-2023.51
            Wave 3 of 3 2017.69-2035.70
            wave 5 of 3 2032-2050

            wave 1 was 2007-2017 … and this is what I use to get the final wave 5 top

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:17 pm

            That’s what I was thinking.
            But I was confused that the 2nd and the 4th of the 3rd didn’t completely retraced 62% and 38% respectivly

          • peter October 22, 2015, 1:32 pm

            They both were so close … in the high 50’s. That’s usually good enough in a fast moving market.

            We are quickly coming to a top, I think. Have to see what happens tonight.

  • andré October 22, 2015, 8:43 am


    perhaps a new cycle run this weekend to see if anything has changed?

    • peter October 22, 2015, 8:48 am

      I can do another run tonight, but I don’t think anything has changed. I just did one a couple of days ago.

      I go back to the last comment from Jaze: The Jupiter – Saturn Cycles has a high this Friday 23rd. So the real downside action could start not before next Monday 26th October well into first week of November. We could well oscillate until this Friday at around 2040 – 2060 and then go down next week.

      • john October 22, 2015, 9:18 am

        I think we have to be close.

        Today mercury latitude maximum Okt 22
        Tommorow top of the Jupiter -Saturn cycle
        Stan Harley’s first target SP 2040-2060 at Okt 23 top of the countertrend rally or we will extend to the next point Nov 5.

        After that he sees a breakdown of the SP lows 1875…

        • peter October 22, 2015, 9:36 am

          I think we’re close, John, but not today.

        • john October 22, 2015, 10:29 am

          No, I think tommorow or monday
          I still have my Nov (date 20) puts and hope the decline will start soon and in a waterfall way.
          I wonder what kind of magic trick Yellen has next week?

    • peter October 22, 2015, 8:49 am

      This is a fifth of fifth wave that we’re in now.

    • Gary October 22, 2015, 8:50 am

      This is from Martin Armstrong’s blog. His weekly numbers have always been really accurate. I am paying close attention to the idea of a “slingshot move” back to the August lows if we don’t close above 17760 on a weekly basis.

      Dow for the Close – Oct. 16, 2015
      The Dow held the 15500 number on the Weekly level and then held 16280 level. Our models warn that a slingshot becomes possible taking out the August low. On the upside, we still have the major resistance at 17760 and it will take a weekly closing above that level to suggest a breakout back to the upside.

      Our timing models show a potential high for this week. We need to exceed this week’s high on a closing basis next week to suggest we can rise into the first week of November. However, a closing today BELOW 17068 will warn that this market is starting to run out of steam on the upside. Everything is pointing to early November.

      • peter October 22, 2015, 8:55 am

        His forecast is much the same as mine.

        The DOW sports a beautiful EW textbook wave up in five waves right now. We just have to wait for the burn-out. It’s obvious now that the ending diagonal triangles that went on and on were the end of wave 4 and this is the final wave 5.

      • peter October 22, 2015, 9:01 am

        The other possibility, that sits in the back of my mind is that we’re trying to make this wave a second wave. GDOW has broken to a new high this morning and it’s very close to 62%. So is NYSE. Those are the two stragglers. Otherwise, I would say this is wave two. If we end up getting there, the downside will be very much bigger than I’ve suggested.

        • Gary October 22, 2015, 9:05 am

          That (wave 2 scenario) would equate to the “slingshot”.

          The really crazy part is the alternate. That would be a GLOBAL rush to US equities as the ultimate safe haven in a currency world gone mad. Armstrong’s DOW target is DOW 27,000 and then DOW 40,000.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 9:13 am

            We can’t do that (alternate) from here. This is the last wave up in a clear correction. We would have to go to a new low and start over (below Aug 24).

            But I think wave 2 is very likely. GDOW is only 40 points away. NYSE about 160 or so and has a gap to fill at 10,475 or so.

            To get there, SP would need to come down in a fourth wave (38% of this wave up) and then we do a fifth of fifth up to those levels. That would take us to end of week no doubt.

          • Gary October 22, 2015, 9:20 am

            Yes Peter, you are correct. I am pretty sure MA said that the slingshot to August lows and further would precede the move to new highs. There would be a panic slide to lows with lots of emotion and then the world would realize there is NO confidence in ANY government or central bank currency. Global funds would flow into the US equity markets. NOT US bonds! They will be crashing to lows as interest rates spike up.

          • peter October 22, 2015, 9:31 am

            But that scenario would take the DOW down to 14K (at least) in a C wave and we’re talking confidence in US companies to head back up again? Sorry, I don’t buy that at all. Ask me again when we’re at 14K … haha.

            More likely is wave 2 up a little further, which will then drop us to at least 11K DOW. That is my preferred most likely scenario and certainly fits history.

  • Dave October 22, 2015, 9:42 am

    I have been swing trading with a half position since last week. I have been reluctant to go full short due to my cycle high into early next week. Looking for a deep retrace downwards in the markets from Oct 28th thru the Oct 30th. Good luck every one.

  • Gary October 22, 2015, 12:06 pm

    Personally…. I would love to see Hillary’s “Benghazi Day” marked in history with an EPIC US stock market reversal : )

    • peter October 22, 2015, 12:14 pm

      Well, based on timing, you might kinda get that (if you discount overnight tonight, as that should produce the final wave up).

  • peter October 22, 2015, 12:09 pm

    We are currently in wave 4 of the fifth wave. It should bottom around 2032. The final 5th of 5th should go to either ES 2049 (if wave 5 of 5 is 1.618 X wave 1) or ES 2059 (if wave 5 of 5 is 2.618 X wave 1, or the same length as wave 3). SPX should end about 7 points higher.

    As a result, I’m leaning towards this entire correction as being wave 2. Let’s see where this session ends up. We may hit the wave 4 target at end of day. That leaves overnight for the rest of the world to send 5 of 5 up to top out at one of the numbers I mentioned above.

    If so, we could start down tomorrow.

    • peter October 22, 2015, 12:28 pm

      The other option is that this “wave 4” is the first wave down (it looks motive, but the structure looks like a 3). So I’m expecting a wave 5 of 5 up. In that case, we should get a proper double bottom (that would create 3 waves down, for sure).

      However, if it retraces up 62% and turns down, that would signify the end of this wave up, which is unlikely at this point.

      • peter October 22, 2015, 12:42 pm

        I am not putting a turn down at 62% out of the question here so be alert. This could be a motive wave down. I did not get the double bottom I was looking for …

        • Glenn October 22, 2015, 1:11 pm

          Hi Peter,

          Would you please explain what you mean by a motive wave down? Also by not getting a double bottom how is this significant? Thanks

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:24 pm


          • peter October 22, 2015, 1:26 pm

            I would get the book, The Elliott Wave Principle by Prechter and Frost as I’m not teaching EW online, although I may put together a course shortly.

          • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:27 pm

            Hi Glenn,
            Download this book and take a look.
            it’s simple in theory but complicated in practice.

    • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:34 pm

      Looks like they want to finish with it today

      • peter October 22, 2015, 1:40 pm

        Which is weird as we didn’t get to the 62% mark and I don’t know what that leaves for tonight. Maybe we go sideways. We’ve certainly lost our momentum.

      • peter October 22, 2015, 1:47 pm

        A new high here should create a top. The fifth of fifth looks almost done.

      • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:50 pm

        We are close to your first target ES 2049

        • peter October 22, 2015, 1:52 pm

          RUA (Russell 3000) hit 62% today. So only NYSE and GDOW haven’t made it. But they look like they’re putting in double tops where they are.

      • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:50 pm

        We’ve done the double top

      • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 1:52 pm

        It was small but looks motive

  • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 2:14 pm

    SPX has taken 185 points in three weeks.
    Who could imagine this with earnings declining and revisions of everything down

    • peter October 22, 2015, 2:22 pm

      I know … it’s amazing.
      NQ just took off into the wild blue yonder. YM didn’t budge. ES took off past my target. So we may get more upside tonight for Europe and Asia. I think the North American side is done.

      It could be a very active night.

      • john October 22, 2015, 2:31 pm

        Some comfort for us little bears…

        Stan Harley’s forcast he expects the next drop for the Nas will be arround 3.750 that is about 13% lower that should bring the SP 500 to 1.630 ..
        It will scare everybody..

        • peter October 22, 2015, 2:39 pm

          The market seems to be moving tonight to complete a second wave. And if that happens the low for the Nasdaq is at least 3500. Of course, it won’t end there.

          This is shaping up to be the “big drop.” It may be a little longer wait, but it’ll scare everybody, all right!

          • john van der meer October 22, 2015, 2:58 pm

            Stan was right in his call first leg down SP 500 around 1.875 after that he said a violent rally till mid Sept after that his call was wrong he predicted a low around Okt 19.
            So a top instead Okt 23.. 10-13 trading days later will bring a new bottom
            Nov 6 0r Nov 11
            Next Mercury Nov 15.

        • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 2:44 pm

          do you have an invalidation level after which you would admit that the market is wrong or irrational but it is going to hit a new high?
          Finally SP with such a speed is not already far away from it

          • peter October 22, 2015, 2:58 pm

            No, because that would completely negate the Elliott Wave Principle.

            So far, everything is fitting perfectly. I’ve never seen it fail … ever. I believe this is a second wave (I’ve believed that for a few weeks now). All the measurements seem to point to it, but it’s a question of how we get there … that’s not so obvious.

            Now there are only two important indices that have not met that target: NYSE and GDOW. As of tonight, I think they’ll likely get there. Hope so, because the downside will be spectacular.

            “The market does the obvious in the most un-obvious manner.”

  • Charlie October 22, 2015, 3:14 pm

    Peter,please tell us what are the specific figure levels for the NYSE and GDOW where you project they will have finished their second waves. Many thanks for your phenomenal work !!

    • peter October 22, 2015, 3:17 pm

      You just have to look at the respective charts in the post above. The levels are marked with a horizontal line and the numbers are there.

  • AZ October 22, 2015, 3:18 pm

    Hi Peter

    If the ES ( Not SP CASH ) TOP @ 2106 ( Closed today @ 2055.75 ) , is that still possible to be as Wave 2.


    • peter October 22, 2015, 3:25 pm

      Wave 2 technically (and legally) can go to within a tick of the top of the market and still be wave 2. It doesn’t matter what the asset is.

      However, we have other limitations, in that we’re in a C wave that traces out 5 waves within it. You can’t have 6 waves and they all have to have proportional lengths. Wave two should retrace at least 62% of the way to the top. (it can actually retrace less, but I’ve never seen it retrace less than in the high 50s, percentage-wise). In major indices, because so many are trading it, it tends to be more accurate than in individual stocks. Currencies are also highly accurate.

      • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 9:54 pm

        ES has hit all the targets tonight.
        How do you see the wave structure?

      • Dimitri October 22, 2015, 9:59 pm

        I think all the indices have done their targets tonight

        • peter October 22, 2015, 10:34 pm

          Not quite yet, but they’re very close. One more wave up, I think. I just put up a new post.

        • peter October 22, 2015, 10:37 pm

          It’s always really hard to tell in a countertrend wave, because in a lot of cases, the final waves start to get shorter as they near the end. Traders just run out of gas. So I’ve shown the SPX with a target at its full length but I doubt that it’s going to get there.

  • AZ October 22, 2015, 3:27 pm

    Thank You Peter


  • peter October 22, 2015, 10:33 pm
  • Robert October 22, 2015, 11:33 pm

    Thanks for all your work

    • peter October 22, 2015, 11:37 pm

      I think I remember seeing a comment from you this morning that got ignored due to the unexpected market action this morning. If that’s the case, my apologies. Welcome. I think you said you were new here.

    • peter October 22, 2015, 11:38 pm

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