Trigger Time Yes, it’s more than time to be looking down from here. We’re at extremes in all the usual indicators that I look at. In fact, some of them are so extreme, it’s amazing that this market has been “levitating” as long as it has. But it has one unusual factor that’s the cause… Read more
Market Forecast Overview
Greed is at Extreme Levels Being a steadfast contrarian if absolutely critical if you’re involved in any capacity in the stock market. The market swings from fear to greed and if you have a good handle on where we are in the pendulum swing (cycles again!), and commit to staying on the opposite side of… Read more
The Pressure is Mounting Well, it’s that time again, when I get several emails trying to tell me what to do and where the market is going. I try to stay well away from all of them. They are counter-productive to my work. I cannot do my work without remaining absolutely objective in my approach… Read more
The Eve of Destruction — 1965 Barry McGuire sang “The Eve of Destruction” from hand written notes (in a single “take”) in a recording studio rehearsal in 1965. It was not supposed to be the final soundtrack for that song. It was written by P.F. Sloan, who wrote hit songs for Johnny Rivers (“Secret Agent… Read more
Down — Almost Right Across the Board All the assets for which I do video report on a daily basis are setting up for a turn early in the week. It’s been a long haul and once again, it underlines the difference between trading success and losing consistently: Sitting on your hands. Or, if that’s… Read more
Monday is a US Market Holiday The US market is closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. It will reopen Tuesday morning. Countertrend (corrective waves) The current corrective wave is a countertrend wave within a countertrend fourth wave — a most dangerous undertaking to trade it. Let’s take a moment to think about… Read more
The Bulls’ Last Stand My predicted drop to a new low hasn’t panned out quite yet … but it will! This week’s slow-moving rally continues to illustrate the Hopium Effect in action, but is showing that it’s waning. It reminds me of Custer’s Last Stand. The Battle of the Little Bighorn in 1876 was a… Read more
What Really Happened on Friday? If you read reports in the main stream media or read comments by pundits, you’d think on Friday that the economy turned around on a dime and that everything is wonderful. Ummmm, no it’s not. We had a double whammy on Friday: A labor report that identified an increase of… Read more
The January Effect from TradingSim “The month of January in the stock market has strong significance in predicting the trend of the stock market for the rest of the calendar year. This phenomena occurs between the last trading day in December of the previous year and the fifth trading day of the new year in… Read more
It Won’t Be a Quiet Holiday! Volatility will continue through the holidays, as we’re tracing out large ending diagonals as the final pattern to the downside in the major the US indices. You can never be certain that we have an ending diagonal until the fourth wave is in place, so we need to have… Read more
